984 resultados para Scenario analysis


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This paper provides a paleoenvironmental reconstruction of a Late Quaternary lagoon system in the Jaguaruna region of Santa Catarina state, southern Brazil. Integrated results of bulk sedimentary organic matter characterization (delta C-13, delta N-15 and C/N), microfossil (pollen and diatom) and grain-size analysis from three shallow cores (similar to 2.5m depth) allowed us to propose an evolving paleogeographic scenario in this coastal region for the last ca. 5500 cal a BP. The lagoonal system in this area was more extensive during the mid-Holocene than today, with a gradual and continuous lagoon-sea disconnection until the present. We add to the debate regarding relative sea-level (RSL) variations for the Brazilian coast during the Holocene and discuss the importance of sedimentary dynamics for interpreting changes in coastal ecosystems. The multi-proxy analysis suggests that changes in coastal ecosystems could be directly related to local sedimentary processes, which are not necessarily linked to RSL fluctuations and/or to climatic variations. Copyright (c) 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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The use of microalgae and cyanobacteria for the production of biofuels and other raw materials is considered a very promising sustainable technology due to the high areal productivity, potential for CO2 fixation and use of non-arable land. The production of oil by microalgae in a large scale plant was studied using emergy analysis. The joint transformity calculated for the base scenario was 1.32E + 5 sej/J, the oil transformity was 3.51E + 5 sej/J, the emergy yield ratio (EYR) was 1.09 and environmental loading ratio was 11.10 and the emergy sustainability index (ESI) was 0.10, highlighting some of the key challenges for the technology such as high energy consumption during harvesting, raw material consumption and high capital and operation costs. Alternatives scenarios and the sensitivity to process improvements were also assessed, helping prioritize further research based on sustainability impact. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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A deep theoretical analysis of the graph cut image segmentation framework presented in this paper simultaneously translates into important contributions in several directions. The most important practical contribution of this work is a full theoretical description, and implementation, of a novel powerful segmentation algorithm, GC(max). The output of GC(max) coincides with a version of a segmentation algorithm known as Iterative Relative Fuzzy Connectedness, IRFC. However, GC(max) is considerably faster than the classic IRFC algorithm, which we prove theoretically and show experimentally. Specifically, we prove that, in the worst case scenario, the GC(max) algorithm runs in linear time with respect to the variable M=|C|+|Z|, where |C| is the image scene size and |Z| is the size of the allowable range, Z, of the associated weight/affinity function. For most implementations, Z is identical to the set of allowable image intensity values, and its size can be treated as small with respect to |C|, meaning that O(M)=O(|C|). In such a situation, GC(max) runs in linear time with respect to the image size |C|. We show that the output of GC(max) constitutes a solution of a graph cut energy minimization problem, in which the energy is defined as the a"" (a) norm ayenF (P) ayen(a) of the map F (P) that associates, with every element e from the boundary of an object P, its weight w(e). This formulation brings IRFC algorithms to the realm of the graph cut energy minimizers, with energy functions ayenF (P) ayen (q) for qa[1,a]. Of these, the best known minimization problem is for the energy ayenF (P) ayen(1), which is solved by the classic min-cut/max-flow algorithm, referred to often as the Graph Cut algorithm. We notice that a minimization problem for ayenF (P) ayen (q) , qa[1,a), is identical to that for ayenF (P) ayen(1), when the original weight function w is replaced by w (q) . Thus, any algorithm GC(sum) solving the ayenF (P) ayen(1) minimization problem, solves also one for ayenF (P) ayen (q) with qa[1,a), so just two algorithms, GC(sum) and GC(max), are enough to solve all ayenF (P) ayen (q) -minimization problems. We also show that, for any fixed weight assignment, the solutions of the ayenF (P) ayen (q) -minimization problems converge to a solution of the ayenF (P) ayen(a)-minimization problem (ayenF (P) ayen(a)=lim (q -> a)ayenF (P) ayen (q) is not enough to deduce that). An experimental comparison of the performance of GC(max) and GC(sum) algorithms is included. This concentrates on comparing the actual (as opposed to provable worst scenario) algorithms' running time, as well as the influence of the choice of the seeds on the output.

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The objective of this study was to identify and analyze the nursing diagnoses that constitute risk factors for death in trauma victims in the first 6 hours post-event. This is a cross-sectional, descriptive and exploratory study using quantitative analysis. A total of 406 patients were evaluated over six months of data collection in a tertiary hospital in the municipality of Sao Paulo, according to an instrument created for this purpose. Of the total, 44 (10.7%) suffered death. Multivariate analysis indicated the nursing diagnoses ineffective respiratory pattern, impaired spontaneous ventilation, risk of bleeding and risk of ineffective gastrointestinal tissue perfusion as risk factors for death and ineffective airway clearance, impaired comfort, and acute pain as protective factors, data that can direct health teams for different interventionist actions faced with the complexity of the trauma.

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The development of cloud computing services is speeding up the rate in which the organizations outsource their computational services or sell their idle computational resources. Even though migrating to the cloud remains a tempting trend from a financial perspective, there are several other aspects that must be taken into account by companies before they decide to do so. One of the most important aspect refers to security: while some cloud computing security issues are inherited from the solutions adopted to create such services, many new security questions that are particular to these solutions also arise, including those related to how the services are organized and which kind of service/data can be placed in the cloud. Aiming to give a better understanding of this complex scenario, in this article we identify and classify the main security concerns and solutions in cloud computing, and propose a taxonomy of security in cloud computing, giving an overview of the current status of security in this emerging technology.

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The present PhD thesis summarizes the three-years study about the neutronic investigation of a new concept nuclear reactor aiming at the optimization and the sustainable management of nuclear fuel in a possible European scenario. A new generation nuclear reactor for the nuclear reinassance is indeed desired by the actual industrialized world, both for the solution of the energetic question arising from the continuously growing energy demand together with the corresponding reduction of oil availability, and the environment question for a sustainable energy source free from Long Lived Radioisotopes and therefore geological repositories. Among the Generation IV candidate typologies, the Lead Fast Reactor concept has been pursued, being the one top rated in sustainability. The European Lead-cooled SYstem (ELSY) has been at first investigated. The neutronic analysis of the ELSY core has been performed via deterministic analysis by means of the ERANOS code, in order to retrieve a stable configuration for the overall design of the reactor. Further analyses have been carried out by means of the Monte Carlo general purpose transport code MCNP, in order to check the former one and to define an exact model of the system. An innovative system of absorbers has been conceptualized and designed for both the reactivity compensation and regulation of the core due to cycle swing, as well as for safety in order to guarantee the cold shutdown of the system in case of accident. Aiming at the sustainability of nuclear energy, the steady-state nuclear equilibrium has been investigated and generalized into the definition of the ``extended'' equilibrium state. According to this, the Adiabatic Reactor Theory has been developed, together with a New Paradigm for Nuclear Power: in order to design a reactor that does not exchange with the environment anything valuable (thus the term ``adiabatic''), in the sense of both Plutonium and Minor Actinides, it is required indeed to revert the logical design scheme of nuclear cores, starting from the definition of the equilibrium composition of the fuel and submitting to the latter the whole core design. The New Paradigm has been applied then to the core design of an Adiabatic Lead Fast Reactor complying with the ELSY overall system layout. A complete core characterization has been done in order to asses criticality and power flattening; a preliminary evaluation of the main safety parameters has been also done to verify the viability of the system. Burn up calculations have been then performed in order to investigate the operating cycle for the Adiabatic Lead Fast Reactor; the fuel performances have been therefore extracted and inserted in a more general analysis for an European scenario. The present nuclear reactors fleet has been modeled and its evolution simulated by means of the COSI code in order to investigate the materials fluxes to be managed in the European region. Different plausible scenarios have been identified to forecast the evolution of the European nuclear energy production, including the one involving the introduction of Adiabatic Lead Fast Reactors, and compared to better analyze the advantages introduced by the adoption of new concept reactors. At last, since both ELSY and the ALFR represent new concept systems based upon innovative solutions, the neutronic design of a demonstrator reactor has been carried out: such a system is intended to prove the viability of technology to be implemented in the First-of-a-Kind industrial power plant, with the aim at attesting the general strategy to use, to the largest extent. It was chosen then to base the DEMO design upon a compromise between demonstration of developed technology and testing of emerging technology in order to significantly subserve the purpose of reducing uncertainties about construction and licensing, both validating ELSY/ALFR main features and performances, and to qualify numerical codes and tools.

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Background & Aims: This study investigates whether the aetiologic changes in liver disease and the improved management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have modified the clinical scenario of this tumour over the last 20 years in Italy. Methods: Retrospective study based on the analysis of the ITA.LI.CA (Italian Liver Cancer) database including 3027 HCC patients managed in 11 centres. Patients were divided into 3 groups according to the period of HCC diagnosis: 1987–1996 (year of the ‘‘Milano criteria’’ publication), 1997–2001 (year of release of the EASL guidelines for HCC), and 2002–2008. Results: The significant changes were: (1) progressive patient ageing; (2) increasing prevalence of HCV infection until 2001, with a subsequent decrease, when the alcoholic aetiology increased; (3) liver function improvement, until 2001; (4) increasing ‘‘incidental’’ at the expense of ‘‘symptomatic’’ diagnoses, until 2001; (5) unchanged prevalence of tumours diagnosed during surveillance (around 50%), with an increasing use of the 6- month schedule; (6) favourable HCC ‘‘stage migration’’, until 2001; (7) increasing use of percutaneous ablation; (8) improving survival, until 2001. Conclusions: Over the last 20 years, several aetiologic and clinical features regarding HCC have changed. The survival improvement observed until 2001 was due to an increasing number of tumours diagnosed in early stages and in a background of compensated cirrhosis, and a growing and better use of locoregional treatments. However, the prevalence of early cancers and survival did not increase further in the last years, a result inciting national policies aimed at implementing surveillance programmes for at risk patients.

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This thesis deals with the development of the upcoming aeronautical mobile airport communications system (AeroMACS) system. We analyzed the performance of AeroMACS and we investigated potential solutions for enhancing its performance. Since the most critical results correspond to the channel scenario having less diversity1, we tackled this problem investigating potential solutions for increasing the diversity of the system and therefore improving its performance. We accounted different forms of diversity as space diversity and time diversity. More specifically, space (antenna and cooperative) diversity and time diversity are analyzed as countermeasures for the harsh fading conditions that are typical of airport environments. Among the analyzed techniques, two novel concepts are introduced, namely unequal diversity coding and flexible packet level codes. The proposed techniques have been analyzed on a novel airport channel model, derived from a measurement campaign at the airport of Munich (Germany). The introduced techniques largely improve the performance of the conventional AeroMACS link; representing thus appealing solutions for the long term evolution of the system.

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Analysts, politicians and international players from all over the world look at China as one of the most powerful countries on the international scenario, and as a country whose economic development can significantly impact on the economies of the rest of the world. However many aspects of this country have still to be investigated. First the still fundamental role played by Chinese rural areas for the general development of the country from a political, economic and social point of view. In particular, the way in which the rural areas have influenced the social stability of the whole country has been widely discussed due to their strict relationship with the urban areas where most people from the countryside emigrate searching for a job and a better life. In recent years many studies have mostly focused on the urbanization phenomenon with little interest in the living conditions in rural areas and in the deep changes which have occurred in some, mainly agricultural provinces. An analysis of the level of infrastructure is one of the main aspects which highlights the principal differences in terms of living conditions between rural and urban areas. In this thesis, I first carried out the analysis through the multivariate statistics approach (Principal Component Analysis and Cluster Analysis) in order to define the new map of rural areas based on the analysis of living conditions. In the second part I elaborated an index (Living Conditions Index) through the Fuzzy Expert/Inference System. Finally I compared this index (LCI) to the results obtained from the cluster analysis drawing geographic maps. The data source is the second national agricultural census of China carried out in 2006. In particular, I analysed the data refer to villages but aggregated at province level.

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This thesis proposes an integrated holistic approach to the study of neuromuscular fatigue in order to encompass all the causes and all the consequences underlying the phenomenon. Starting from the metabolic processes occurring at the cellular level, the reader is guided toward the physiological changes at the motorneuron and motor unit level and from this to the more general biomechanical alterations. In Chapter 1 a list of the various definitions for fatigue spanning several contexts has been reported. In Chapter 2, the electrophysiological changes in terms of motor unit behavior and descending neural drive to the muscle have been studied extensively as well as the biomechanical adaptations induced. In Chapter 3 a study based on the observation of temporal features extracted from sEMG signals has been reported leading to the need of a more robust and reliable indicator during fatiguing tasks. Therefore, in Chapter 4, a novel bi-dimensional parameter is proposed. The study on sEMG-based indicators opened a scenario also on neurophysiological mechanisms underlying fatigue. For this purpose, in Chapter 5, a protocol designed for the analysis of motor unit-related parameters during prolonged fatiguing contractions is presented. In particular, two methodologies have been applied to multichannel sEMG recordings of isometric contractions of the Tibialis Anterior muscle: the state-of-the-art technique for sEMG decomposition and a coherence analysis on MU spike trains. The importance of a multi-scale approach has been finally highlighted in the context of the evaluation of cycling performance, where fatigue is one of the limiting factors. In particular, the last chapter of this thesis can be considered as a paradigm: physiological, metabolic, environmental, psychological and biomechanical factors influence the performance of a cyclist and only when all of these are kept together in a novel integrative way it is possible to derive a clear model and make correct assessments.

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This dissertation studies the geometric static problem of under-constrained cable-driven parallel robots (CDPRs) supported by n cables, with n ≤ 6. The task consists of determining the overall robot configuration when a set of n variables is assigned. When variables relating to the platform posture are assigned, an inverse geometric static problem (IGP) must be solved; whereas, when cable lengths are given, a direct geometric static problem (DGP) must be considered. Both problems are challenging, as the robot continues to preserve some degrees of freedom even after n variables are assigned, with the final configuration determined by the applied forces. Hence, kinematics and statics are coupled and must be resolved simultaneously. In this dissertation, a general methodology is presented for modelling the aforementioned scenario with a set of algebraic equations. An elimination procedure is provided, aimed at solving the governing equations analytically and obtaining a least-degree univariate polynomial in the corresponding ideal for any value of n. Although an analytical procedure based on elimination is important from a mathematical point of view, providing an upper bound on the number of solutions in the complex field, it is not practical to compute these solutions as it would be very time-consuming. Thus, for the efficient computation of the solution set, a numerical procedure based on homotopy continuation is implemented. A continuation algorithm is also applied to find a set of robot parameters with the maximum number of real assembly modes for a given DGP. Finally, the end-effector pose depends on the applied load and may change due to external disturbances. An investigation into equilibrium stability is therefore performed.

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The present work is included in the context of the assessment of sustainability in the construction field and is aimed at estimating and analyzing life cycle cost of the existing reinforced concrete bridge “Viadotto delle Capre” during its entire life. This was accomplished by a comprehensive data collection and results evaluation. In detail, the economic analysis of the project is performed. The work has investigated possible design alternatives for maintenance/rehabilitation and end-of-life operations, when structural, functional, economic and also environmental requirements have to be fulfilled. In detail, the economic impact of different design options for the given reinforced concrete bridge have been assessed, whereupon the most economically, structurally and environmentally efficient scenario was chosen. The Integrated Life-Cycle Analysis procedure and Environmental Impact Assessment were also discussed in this work. The scope of this thesis is to illustrate that Life Cycle Cost analysis as part of Life Cycle Assessment approach could be effectively used to drive the design and management strategy of new and existing structures. The final objective of this contribution is to show how an economic analysis can influence decision-making in the definition of the most sustainable design alternatives. The designers can monitor the economic impact of different design strategies in order to identify the most appropriate option.

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Nowadays the environmental issues and the climatic change play fundamental roles in the design of urban spaces. Our cities are growing in size, many times only following immediate needs without a long-term vision. Consequently, the sustainable development has become not only an ethical but also a strategic need: we can no longer afford an uncontrolled urban expansion. One serious effect of the territory industrialisation process is the increase of urban air and surfaces temperatures compared to the outlying rural surroundings. This difference in temperature is what constitutes an urban heat island (UHI). The purpose of this study is to provide a clarification on the role of urban surfacing materials in the thermal dynamics of an urban space, resulting in useful indications and advices in mitigating UHI. With this aim, 4 coloured concrete bricks were tested, measuring their emissivity and building up their heat release curves using infrared thermography. Two emissivity evaluation procedures were carried out and subsequently put in comparison. Samples performances were assessed, and the influence of the colour on the thermal behaviour was investigated. In addition, some external pavements were analysed. Albedo and emissivity parameters were evaluated in order to understand their thermal behaviour in different conditions. Surfaces temperatures were recorded in a one-day measurements campaign. ENVI-met software was used to simulate how the tested materials would behave in two typical urban scenarios: a urban canyon and a urban heat basin. Improvements they can carry to the urban microclimate were investigated. Emissivities obtained for the bricks ranged between 0.92 and 0.97, suggesting a limited influence of the colour on this parameter. Nonetheless, white concrete brick showed the best thermal performance, whilst the black one the worst; red and yellow ones performed pretty identical intermediate trends. De facto, colours affected the overall thermal behaviour. Emissivity parameter was measured in the outdoor work, getting (as expected) high values for the asphalts. Albedo measurements, conducted with a sunshine pyranometer, proved the improving effect given by the yellow paint in terms of solar reflection, and the bad influence of haze on the measurement accuracy. ENVI-met simulations gave a demonstration on the effectiveness in thermal improving of some tested materials. In particular, results showed good performances for white bricks and granite in the heat basin scenario, and painted concrete and macadam in the urban canyon scenario. These materials can be considered valuable solutions in UHI mitigation.

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The performances of the H → ZZ* → 4l analysis are studied in the context of the High Luminosity upgrade of the LHC collider, with the CMS detector. The high luminosity (up to L = 5 × 10^34 cm−2s−1) of the accelerator poses very challenging experimental con- ditions. In particular, the number of overlapping events per bunch crossing will increase to 140. To cope with this difficult environment, the CMS detector will be upgraded in two stages: Phase-I and Phase-II. The tools used in the analysis are the CMS Full Simulation and the fast parametrized Delphes simulation. A validation of Delphes with respect to the Full Simulation is performed, using reference Phase-I detector samples. Delphes is then used to simulate the Phase-II detector response. The Phase-II configuration is compared with the Phase-I detector and the same Phase-I detector affected by aging processes, both modeled with the Full Simulation framework. Conclusions on these three scenarios are derived: the degradation in performances observed with the “aged” scenario shows that a major upgrade of the detector is mandatory. The specific upgrade configuration studied allows to keep the same performances as in Phase-I and, in the case of the four-muons channel, even to exceed them.

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Percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL) for the treatment of renal stones and other related renal diseases has proved its efficacy and has stood the test of time compared with open surgical methods and extracorporal shock wave lithotripsy. However, access to the collecting system of the kidney is not easy because the available intra-operative image modalities only provide a two dimensional view of the surgical scenario. With this lack of visual information, several punctures are often necessary which, increases the risk of renal bleeding, splanchnic, vascular or pulmonary injury, or damage to the collecting system which sometimes makes the continuation of the procedure impossible. In order to address this problem, this paper proposes a workflow for introduction of a stereotactic needle guidance system for PCNL procedures. An analysis of the imposed clinical requirements, and a instrument guidance approach to provide the physician with a more intuitive planning and visual guidance to access the collecting system of the kidney are presented.