Estimating loss to follow-up in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: the effect of the competing risk of death in Zambia and Switzerland

Background Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. Mortality is a competing risk (CR) for LTFU; however, it is often overlooked in cohort analyses. We examined how the CR of death affected LTFU estimates in Zambia and Switzerland. Methods and Findings HIV-infected patients aged ≥18 years who started ART 2004–2008 in observational cohorts in Zambia and Switzerland were included. We compared standard Kaplan-Meier curves with CR cumulative incidence. We calculated hazard ratios for LTFU across CD4 cell count strata using cause-specific Cox models, or Fine and Gray subdistribution models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and clinical stage. 89,339 patients from Zambia and 1,860 patients from Switzerland were included. 12,237 patients (13.7%) in Zambia and 129 patients (6.9%) in Switzerland were LTFU and 8,498 (9.5%) and 29 patients (1.6%), respectively, died. In Zambia, the probability of LTFU was overestimated in Kaplan-Meier curves: estimates at 3.5 years were 29.3% for patients starting ART with CD4 cells <100 cells/µl and 15.4% among patients starting with ≥350 cells/µL. The estimates from CR cumulative incidence were 22.9% and 13.6%, respectively. Little difference was found between naïve and CR analyses in Switzerland since only few patients died. The results from Cox and Fine and Gray models were similar: in Zambia the risk of loss to follow-up and death increased with decreasing CD4 counts at the start of ART, whereas in Switzerland there was a trend in the opposite direction, with patients with higher CD4 cell counts more likely to be lost to follow-up. Conclusions In ART programmes in low-income settings the competing risk of death can substantially bias standard analyses of LTFU. The CD4 cell count and other prognostic factors may be differentially associated with LTFU in low-income and high-income settings.

Proposal on How To Conduct a Biopharmaceutical Process Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) as a Risk Assessment Tool

With the publication of the quality guideline ICH Q9 "Quality Risk Management" by the International Conference on Harmonization, risk management has already become a standard requirement during the life cycle of a pharmaceutical product. Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a powerful risk analysis tool that has been used for decades in mechanical and electrical industries. However, the adaptation of the FMEA methodology to biopharmaceutical processes brings about some difficulties. The proposal presented here is intended to serve as a brief but nevertheless comprehensive and detailed guideline on how to conduct a biopharmaceutical process FMEA. It includes a detailed 1-to-10-scale FMEA rating table for occurrence, severity, and detectability of failures that has been especially designed for typical biopharmaceutical processes. The application for such a biopharmaceutical process FMEA is widespread. It can be useful whenever a biopharmaceutical manufacturing process is developed or scaled-up, or when it is transferred to a different manufacturing site. It may also be conducted during substantial optimization of an existing process or the development of a second-generation process. According to their resulting risk ratings, process parameters can be ranked for importance and important variables for process development, characterization, or validation can be identified. LAY ABSTRACT: Health authorities around the world ask pharmaceutical companies to manage risk during development and manufacturing of pharmaceuticals. The so-called failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is an established risk analysis tool that has been used for decades in mechanical and electrical industries. However, the adaptation of the FMEA methodology to pharmaceutical processes that use modern biotechnology (biopharmaceutical processes) brings about some difficulties, because those biopharmaceutical processes differ from processes in mechanical and electrical industries. The proposal presented here explains how a biopharmaceutical process FMEA can be conducted. It includes a detailed 1-to-10-scale FMEA rating table for occurrence, severity, and detectability of failures that has been especially designed for typical biopharmaceutical processes. With the help of this guideline, different details of the manufacturing process can be ranked according to their potential risks, and this can help pharmaceutical companies to identify aspects with high potential risks and to react accordingly to improve the safety of medicines.

Psychosocial stress and cardiovascular risk : current opinion

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Epidemiologic research of the last half-century has clearly shown that psychosocial factors related to the social environment, personality characteristics, and negative affect increase the risk of incident CVD and also impact prognosis of cardiac patients. Several mechanisms may explain this link, including a genetic predisposition, poor lifestyle choices, low adherence to health recommendations, and direct pathophysiologic perturbations. The latter include alteration of the hypothalamic-pituitary adrenal axis and autonomic dysfunction resulting in endothelial dysfunction, inflammation, and a prothrombotic state further downstream. Screening for psychosocial factors seems appropriate as part of the standard history and based on the clinician's knowledge of the patient and the purpose of the visit. Psychological interventions generally alleviate distress in cardiac patients, but whether they reduce the risk of hard cardiovascular endpoints and all-cause mortality is less evident. Cardiac patients with more severe depression may particularly profit from antidepressant medications. Due to their pharmacologic properties, selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors were shown to improve cardiovascular outcome. The most effective psychosocial treatment is multicomponent therapy that combines elements of cognitive behaviour therapy ("stress management") and changes in health behaviours, including the adoption of a regular exercise regimen. Gender-specific issues should probably be considered. The field of behavioural cardiology has accumulated a wealth of epidemiological, mechanistic and clinical knowledge that undoubtedly has furthered our understanding about the important role of psychosocial risk factors in patients with a heart disease.

Antimicrobial resistance in Swiss laying hens, prevalence and risk factors

Antimicrobial resistance is an emerging concern to public health, and food-producing animals are known to be a potential source for transmission of resistant bacteria to humans. As legislation of the European Union requires to ban conventional cages for the housing of laying hens on the one hand, and a high food safety standard for eggs on the other hand, further investigations about the occurrence of antimicrobial resistance in alternative housing types are required. In this study, we determined antimicrobial resistance in indicator bacteria from 396 cloacal swabs from 99 Swiss laying hen farms among four alternative housing types during a cross-sectional study. On each farm, four hens were sampled and exposure to potential risk factors was identified with a questionnaire. The minimal inhibitory concentration was determined using broth microdilution in Escherichia coli (n=371) for 18 antimicrobials and in Enterococcus faecalis (n=138) and Enterococcus faecium (n=153) for 16 antimicrobials. All antimicrobial classes recommended by the European Food Safety Authority for E. coli and enterococci were included in the resistance profile. Sixty per cent of the E. coli isolates were susceptible to all of the considered antimicrobials and 30% were resistant to at least two antimicrobials. In E. faecalis, 33% of the strains were susceptible to all tested antimicrobials and 40% were resistant to two or more antimicrobials, whereas in E. faecium these figures were 14% and 39% respectively. Risk factor analyses were carried out for bacteria species and antimicrobials with a prevalence of resistance between 15% and 85%. In these analyses, none of the considered housing and management factors showed a consistent association with the prevalence of resistance for more than two combinations of bacteria and antimicrobial. Therefore we conclude that the impact of the considered housing and management practices on the egg producing farms on resistance in laying hens is low.

The significance of at-risk symptoms for psychosis in children and adolescents

The early detection and treatment of people at risk for psychosis is currently regarded as a promising strategy in fighting the devastating consequences of psychotic disorders. Currently, the 2 most broadly used sets of at-risk criteria, that is, ultra-high risk (UHR) and basic symptom criteria, were developed mainly in adult samples. We review the data regarding the presence and relevance of at-risk symptoms for psychosis in children and adolescents. The few existing studies suggest that attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS) and brief limited intermittent psychotic symptoms (BLIPS) do have some clinical relevance in young adolescents from the general population. Nevertheless, their differentiation from atypical psychotic symptoms or an emerging schizotypal personality disorder, as well as their stability and predictive accuracy for psychosis, are still unclear. Further, standard interviews for UHR criteria do not define a minimum age for the assessment of APS and BLIPS or guidelines as to when and how to include information from parents. APS and basic symptoms may be predictive of conversion to psychosis in help-seeking young adolescents. Nevertheless, the rate and timing, and thus the required observation time, need further study. Moreover, no study has yet addressed the issue of how to treat children and adolescents presenting with at-risk symptoms and criteria. Further research is urgently needed to examine if current at-risk criteria and approaches have to be tailored to the special needs of children and adolescents. A preliminary rationale for how to deal with at-risk symptoms for psychosis in clinical practice is provided.

Multicycle dose-intensive chemotherapy for women with high-risk primary breast cancer: results of International Breast Cancer Study Group Trial 15-95

PURPOSE: To compare adjuvant dose-intensive epirubicin and cyclophosphamide chemotherapy administered with filgrastim and progenitor cell support (DI-EC) with standard-dose anthracycline-based chemotherapy (SD-CT) for patients with early-stage breast cancer and a high risk of relapse, defined as stage II disease with 10 or more positive axillary nodes; or an estrogen receptor-negative or stage III tumor with five or more positive axillary nodes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Three hundred forty-four patients were randomized after surgery to receive seven cycles of SD-CT over 22 weeks, or three cycles of DI-EC (epirubicin 200 mg/m2 plus cyclophosphamide 4 gm/m2 with filgrastim and progenitor cell support) over 6 weeks. All patients were assigned tamoxifen at the completion of chemotherapy. The primary end point was disease-free survival (DFS). RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 5.8 years (range, 3 to 8.4 years), 188 DFS events had occurred (DI-EC, 86 events; SD-CT, 102 events). The 5-year DFS was 52% for DI-EC and 43% for SD-CT, with hazard ratio of DI-EC compared with SD-CT of 0.77 (95% CI, 0.58 to 1.02; P = .07). The 5-year overall survival was 70% for DI-EC and 61% for SD-CT, with a hazard ratio of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.56 to 1.11; P = .17). There were eight cases (5%) of anthracycline-induced cardiomyopathy (two fatal) among those who received DI-EC. Women with hormone receptor-positive tumors benefited significantly from DI-EC. CONCLUSION: There was a trend in favor of DI-EC with respect to disease-free survival. A larger trial or meta-analysis will be required to reveal the true effect of dose-intensive therapy.

Multicentre study on peri- and postoperative central venous oxygen saturation in high-risk surgical patients

Introduction Low central venous oxygen saturation (ScvO2) has been associated with increased risk of postoperative complications in high-risk surgery. Whether this association is centre-specific or more generalisable is not known. The aim of this study was to assess the association between peri- and postoperative ScvO2 and outcome in high-risk surgical patients in a multicentre setting. Methods Three large European university hospitals (two in Finland, one in Switzerland) participated. In 60 patients with intra-abdominal surgery lasting more than 90 minutes, the presence of at least two of Shoemaker's criteria, and ASA (American Society of Anesthesiologists) class greater than 2, ScvO2 was determined preoperatively and at two hour intervals during the operation until 12 hours postoperatively. Hospital length of stay (LOS) mortality, and predefined postoperative complications were recorded. Results The age of the patients was 72 ± 10 years (mean ± standard deviation), and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS II) was 32 ± 12. Hospital LOS was 10.5 (8 to 14) days, and 28-day hospital mortality was 10.0%. Preoperative ScvO2 decreased from 77% ± 10% to 70% ± 11% (p < 0.001) immediately after surgery and remained unchanged 12 hours later. A total of 67 postoperative complications were recorded in 32 patients. After multivariate analysis, mean ScvO2 value (odds ratio [OR] 1.23 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01 to 1.50], p = 0.037), hospital LOS (OR 0.75 [95% CI 0.59 to 0.94], p = 0.012), and SAPS II (OR 0.90 [95% CI 0.82 to 0.99], p = 0.029) were independently associated with postoperative complications. The optimal value of mean ScvO2 to discriminate between patients who did or did not develop complications was 73% (sensitivity 72%, specificity 61%). Conclusion Low ScvO2 perioperatively is related to increased risk of postoperative complications in high-risk surgery. This warrants trials with goal-directed therapy using ScvO2 as a target in high-risk surgery patients.

Simvastatin and ezetimibe in addition to nonpharmacological risk factor modification for achieving new low-density lipoprotein cholesterol targets

BACKGROUND: Though guidelines emphasize low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) lowering as an essential strategy for cardiovascular risk reduction, achieving target levels may be difficult. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The authors conducted a prospective, controlled, open-label trial examining the effectiveness and safety of high-dose fluvastatin or a standard dosage of simvastatin plus ezetimibe, both with an intensive guideline-oriented cardiac rehabilitation program, in achieving the new ATP III LDL-C targets in patients with proven coronary artery disease. 305 consecutive patients were enrolled in the study. Patients were divided into two groups: the simvastatin (40 mg/d) plus ezetimibe (10 mg/d) and the fluvastatin-only group (80 mg/d). Patients in both study groups received the treatment for 21 days in addition to nonpharmacological measures, including advanced physical, dietary, psychosocial, and educational activities. RESULTS: After 21 days of treatment, a significant reduction in LDL-C was found in both study groups as compared to the initial values, however, the reduction in LDL-C was significantly stronger in the simvastatin plus ezetimibe group: simvastatin plus ezetimibe treatment decreased LDL-C to a mean level of 57.7 +/- 1.7 mg/ml, while fluvastatin achieved a reduction to 84.1 +/- 2.4 mg/ml (p < 0.001). In the simvastatin plus ezetimibe group, 95% of the patients reached the target level of LDL-C < 100 mg/dl. This percentage was significantly higher than in patients treated with fluvastatin alone (75%; p < 0.001). The greater effectiveness of simvastatin plus ezetimibe was more impressive when considering the optional goal of LDL-C < 70 mg/dl (75% vs. 32%, respectively; p < 0.001). There was no difference in occurrence of adverse events between both groups. CONCLUSION: Simvastatin 40 mg/d plus ezetimibe 10 mg/d, on the background of a guideline-oriented standardized intensive cardiac rehabilitation program, can reach 95% effectiveness in achieving challenging goals (LDL < 100 mg/dl) using lipid-lowering medication in patients at high cardiovascular risk.

Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

The role of lymphadenectomy in high risk prostate cancer

Historically, patients with high risk prostate cancer were considered poor candidates for radical prostatectomy (RP) due to the likelihood of positive pelvic lymph nodes and decreased long term survival. Although there is still no consensus on the optimal therapy for this group of patients, there is increasing evidence that surgery could play a role. Cancer specific survival (CSS) rates after RP for locally advanced disease at 10 year follow up range from 29 to 72%, depending on tumor differentiation. The role of pelvic lymph node dissection (PLND) in prostate cancer remains a controversial topic. Nonetheless, in conjunction with RRP extended PLND (ePLND) should be performed as extended lymph node dissection in lieu of standard PLND may increase staging accuracy, influence decision making with respect to adjuvant therapy and possibly impact outcome. High risk patients with organ confined prostate cancer and low volume (micro)metastatic disease may be the ones to profit most from this approach.

AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF PARTIAL LOW RISK DEPLOYMENT IN A FIXED VEHICLE ENVIRONMENT

This study will look at the passenger air bag (PAB) performance in a fix vehicle environment using Partial Low Risk Deployment (PLRD) as a strategy. This development will follow test methods against actual baseline vehicle data and Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards 208 (FMVSS 208). FMVSS 208 states that PAB compliance in vehicle crash testing can be met using one of three deployment methods. The primary method suppresses PAB deployment, with the use of a seat weight sensor or occupant classification sensor (OCS), for three-year old and six-year old occupants including the presence of a child seat. A second method, PLRD allows deployment on all size occupants suppressing only for the presents of a child seat. A third method is Low Risk Deployment (LRD) which allows PAB deployment in all conditions, all statures including any/all child seats. This study outlines a PLRD development solution for achieving FMVSS 208 performance. The results of this study should provide an option for system implementation including opportunities for system efficiency and other considerations. The objective is to achieve performance levels similar too or incrementally better than the baseline vehicles National Crash Assessment Program (NCAP) Star rating. In addition, to define systemic flexibility where restraint features can be added or removed while improving occupant performance consistency to the baseline. A certified vehicles’ air bag system will typically remain in production until the vehicle platform is redesigned. The strategy to enable the PLRD hypothesis will be to first match the baseline out of position occupant performance (OOP) for the three and six-year old requirements. Second, improve the 35mph belted 5th percentile female NCAP star rating over the baseline vehicle. Third establish an equivalent FMVSS 208 certification for the 25mph unbelted 50th percentile male. FMVSS 208 high-speed requirement defines the federal minimum crash performance required for meeting frontal vehicle crash-test compliance. The intent of NCAP 5-Star rating is to provide the consumer with information about crash protection, beyond what is required by federal law. In this study, two vehicles segments were used for testing to compare and contrast to their baseline vehicles performance. Case Study 1 (CS1) used a cross over vehicle platform and Case Study 2 (CS2) used a small vehicle segment platform as their baselines. In each case study, the restraints systems were from different restraint supplier manufactures and each case contained that suppliers approach to PLRD. CS1 incorporated a downsized twins shaped bag, a carryover inflator, standard vents, and a strategic positioned bag diffuser to help disperse the flow of gas to improve OOP. The twin shaped bag with two segregated sections (lobes) to enabled high-speed baseline performance correlation on the HYGE Sled. CS2 used an A-Symmetric (square shape) PAB with standard size vents, including a passive vent, to obtain OOP similar to the baseline. The A-Symmetric shape bag also helped to enabled high-speed baseline performance improvements in HYGE Sled testing in CS2. The anticipated CS1 baseline vehicle-pulse-index (VPI) target was in the range of 65-67. However, actual dynamic vehicle (barrier) testing was overshadowed with the highest crash pulse from the previous tested vehicles with a VPI of 71. The result from the 35mph NCAP Barrier test was a solid 4-Star (4.7 Star) respectfully. In CS2, the vehicle HYGE Sled development VPI range, from the baseline was 61-62 respectively. Actual NCAP test produced a chest deflection result of 26mm versus the anticipated baseline target of 12mm. The initial assessment of this condition was thought to be due to the vehicles significant VPI increase to 67. A subsequent root cause investigation confirmed a data integrity issue due to the instrumentation. In an effort to establish a true vehicle test data point a second NCAP test was performed but faced similar instrumentation issues. As a result, the chest deflect hit the target of 12.1mm; however a femur load spike, similar to the baseline, now skewed the results. With noted level of performance improvement in chest deflection, the NCAP star was assessed as directional for 5-Star capable performance. With an actual rating of 3-Star due to instrumentation, using data extrapolation raised the ratings to 5-Star. In both cases, no structural changes were made to the surrogate vehicle and the results in each case matched their perspective baseline vehicle platforms. These results proved the PLRD is viable for further development and production implementation.

Increased Framingham Coronary Heart Disease Risk Score in dementia caregivers relative to non-caregiving controls

BACKGROUND: Elderly individuals who provide care to a spouse suffering from dementia bear an increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that the Framingham CHD Risk Score would be higher in dementia caregivers relative to non-caregiving controls. METHODS: We investigated 64 caregivers providing in-home care for their spouse with Alzheimer's disease and 41 gender-matched non-caregiving controls. All subjects (mean age 70 +/- 8 years, 75% women, 93% Caucasian) had a negative history of CHD and cerebrovascular disease. The original Framingham CHD Risk Score was computed adding up categorical scores for age, blood lipids, blood pressure, diabetes, and smoking with adjustment made for sex. RESULTS: The average CHD risk score was higher in caregivers than in controls even when co-varying for socioeconomic status, health habits, medication, and psychological distress (8.0 +/- 2.9 vs. 6.3 +/- 3.0 points, p = 0.013). The difference showed a medium effect size (Cohen's d = 0.57). A relatively higher blood pressure in caregivers than in controls made the greatest contribution to this difference. The probability (area under the receiver operator curve) that a randomly selected caregiver had a greater CHD risk score than a randomly selected non-caregiver was 65.5%. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the Framingham CHD Risk Score, the potential to develop overt CHD in the following 10 years was predicted to be greater in dementia caregivers than in non-caregiving controls. The magnitude of the difference in the CHD risk between caregivers and controls appears to be clinically relevant. Clinicians may want to monitor caregiving status as a routine part of standard evaluation of their elderly patients' cardiovascular risk.

Is perioperative point-of-care prothrombin time testing accurate compared to the standard laboratory test?

There is no accepted way of measuring prothrombin time without time loss for patients undergoing major surgery who are at risk of intraoperative dilution and consumption coagulopathy due to bleeding and volume replacement with crystalloids or colloids. Decisions to transfuse fresh frozen plasma and procoagulatory drugs have to rely on clinical judgment in these situations. Point-of-care devices are considerably faster than the standard laboratory methods. In this study we assessed the accuracy of a Point-of-care (PoC) device measuring prothrombin time compared to the standard laboratory method. Patients undergoing major surgery and intensive care unit patients were included. PoC prothrombin time was measured by CoaguChek XS Plus (Roche Diagnostics, Switzerland). PoC and reference tests were performed independently and interpreted under blinded conditions. Using a cut-off prothrombin time of 50%, we calculated diagnostic accuracy measures, plotted a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and tested for equivalence between the two methods. PoC sensitivity and specificity were 95% (95% CI 77%, 100%) and 95% (95% CI 91%, 98%) respectively. The negative likelihood ratio was 0.05 (95% CI 0.01, 0.32). The positive likelihood ratio was 19.57 (95% CI 10.62, 36.06). The area under the ROC curve was 0.988. Equivalence between the two methods was confirmed. CoaguChek XS Plus is a rapid and highly accurate test compared with the reference test. These findings suggest that PoC testing will be useful for monitoring intraoperative prothrombin time when coagulopathy is suspected. It could lead to a more rational use of expensive and limited blood bank resources.

The effect of endocrine responsiveness on high-risk breast cancer treated with dose-intensive chemotherapy: results of International Breast Cancer Study Group Trial 15-95 after prolonged follow-up

BACKGROUND: The role of adjuvant dose-intensive chemotherapy and its efficacy according to baseline features has not yet been established. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Three hundred and forty-four patients were randomized to receive seven courses of standard-dose chemotherapy (SD-CT) or three cycles of dose-intensive epirubicin and cyclophosphamide (epirubicin 200 mg/m(2) plus cyclophosphamide 4 mg/m(2) with filgrastim and progenitor cell support). All patients were assigned tamoxifen at the completion of chemotherapy. The primary end point was disease-free survival (DFS). This paper updates the results and explores patterns of recurrence according to predicting baseline features. RESULTS: At 8.3-years median follow-up, patients assigned DI-EC had a significantly better DFS compared with those assigned SD-CT [8-year DFS percent 47% and 37%, respectively, hazard ratio (HR) 0.76; 95% confidence interval 0.58-1.00; P = 0.05]. Only patients with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive disease benefited from the DI-EC (HR 0.61; 95% confidence interval 0.39, 0.95; P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: After prolonged follow-up, DI-EC significantly improved DFS, but the effect was observed only in patients with ER-positive disease, leading to the hypothesis that efficacy of DI-EC may relate to its endocrine effects. Further studies designed to confirm the importance of endocrine responsiveness in patients treated with dose-intensive chemotherapy are encouraged.

Risk of severe asthma episodes predicted from fluctuation analysis of airway function

Asthma is an increasing health problem worldwide, but the long-term temporal pattern of clinical symptoms is not understood and predicting asthma episodes is not generally possible. We analyse the time series of peak expiratory flows, a standard measurement of airway function that has been assessed twice daily in a large asthmatic population during a long-term crossover clinical trial. Here we introduce an approach to predict the risk of worsening airflow obstruction by calculating the conditional probability that, given the current airway condition, a severe obstruction will occur within 30 days. We find that, compared with a placebo, a regular long-acting bronchodilator (salmeterol) that is widely used to improve asthma control decreases the risk of airway obstruction. Unexpectedly, however, a regular short-acting beta2-agonist bronchodilator (albuterol) increases this risk. Furthermore, we find that the time series of peak expiratory flows show long-range correlations that change significantly with disease severity, approaching a random process with increased variability in the most severe cases. Using a nonlinear stochastic model, we show that both the increased variability and the loss of correlations augment the risk of unstable airway function. The characterization of fluctuations in airway function provides a quantitative basis for objective risk prediction of asthma episodes and for evaluating the effectiveness of therapy.