Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model

With the intermediate-complexity Zebiak-Cane model, we investigate the 'spring predictability barrier' (SPB) problem for El Nino events by tracing the evolution of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), where CNOP is superimposed on the El Nino events and acts as the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the El Nino prediction. We show that the evolution of CNOP-type errors has obvious seasonal dependence and yields a significant SPB, with the most severe occurring in predictions made before the boreal spring in the growth phase of El Nino. The CNOP-type errors can be classified into two types: one possessing a sea-surface-temperature anomaly pattern with negative anomalies in the equatorial central-western Pacific, positive anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and a thermocline depth anomaly pattern with positive anomalies along the Equator, and another with patterns almost opposite to those of the former type. In predictions through the spring in the growth phase of El Nino, the initial error with the worst effect on the prediction tends to be the latter type of CNOP error, whereas in predictions through the spring in the decaying phase, the initial error with the biggest negative effect on the prediction is inclined to be the former type of CNOP error. Although the linear singular vector (LSV)-type errors also have patterns similar to the CNOP-type errors, they cover a more localized area than the CNOP-type errors and cause a much smaller prediction error, yielding a less significant SPB. Random errors in the initial conditions are also superimposed on El Nino events to investigate the SPB. We find that, whenever the predictions start, the random errors neither exhibit an obvious season-dependent evolution nor yield a large prediction error, and thus may not be responsible for the SPB phenomenon for El Nino events. These results suggest that the occurrence of the SPB is closely related to particular initial error patterns. The two kinds of CNOP-type error are most likely to cause a significant SPB. They have opposite signs and, consequently, opposite growth behaviours, a result which may demonstrate two dynamical mechanisms of error growth related to SPB: in one case, the errors grow in a manner similar to El Nino; in the other, the errors develop with a tendency opposite to El Nino. The two types of CNOP error may be most likely to provide the information regarding the 'sensitive area' of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. If these types of initial error exist in realistic ENSO predictions and if a target method or a data assimilation approach can filter them, the ENSO forecast skill may be improved. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Roles of equatorial waves and western boundary reflection in the seasonal circulation of the equatorial Indian Ocean

An ocean general circulation model (OGCM) is used to study the roles of equatorial waves and western boundary reflection in the seasonal circulation of the equatorial Indian Ocean. The western boundary reflection is defined as the total Kelvin waves leaving the western boundary, which include the reflection of the equatorial Rossby waves as well as the effects of alongshore winds, off-equatorial Rossby waves, and nonlinear processes near the western boundary. The evaluation of the reflection is based on a wave decomposition of the OGCM results and experiments with linear models. It is found that the alongshore winds along the east coast of Africa and the Rossby waves in the off-equatorial areas contribute significantly to the annual harmonics of the equatorial Kelvin waves at the western boundary. The semiannual harmonics of the Kelvin waves, on the other hand, originate primarily from a linear reflection of the equatorial Rossby waves. The dynamics of a dominant annual oscillation of sea level coexisting with the dominant semiannual oscillations of surface zonal currents in the central equatorial Indian Ocean are investigated. These sea level and zonal current patterns are found to be closely related to the linear reflections of the semiannual harmonics at the meridional boundaries. Because of the reflections, the second baroclinic mode resonates with the semiannual wind forcing; that is, the semiannual zonal currents carried by the reflected waves enhance the wind-forced currents at the central basin. Because of the different behavior of the zonal current and sea level during the reflections, the semiannual sea levels of the directly forced and reflected waves cancel each other significantly at the central basin. In the meantime, the annual harmonic of the sea level remains large, producing a dominant annual oscillation of sea level in the central equatorial Indian Ocean. The linear reflection causes the semiannual harmonics of the incoming and reflected sea levels to enhance each other at the meridional boundaries. In addition, the weak annual harmonics of sea level in the western basin, resulting from a combined effect of the western boundary reflection and the equatorial zonal wind forcing, facilitate the dominance by the semiannual harmonics near the western boundary despite the strong local wind forcing at the annual period. The Rossby waves are found to have a much larger contribution to the observed equatorial semiannual oscillations of surface zonal currents than the Kelvin waves. The westward progressive reversal of seasonal surface zonal currents along the equator in the observations is primarily due to the Rossby wave propagation.

Seasonal changes in the distribution of dissolved organic nitrogen in coastal and open-ocean waters in the North East Pacific: sources and sinks

The distribution of dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) and nitrate were determined seasonally (winter, spring and summer) during three years along line P, i.e. an E-W transect from the coast of British Columbia, Canada, to Station P (50degreesN, 145degreesW) in the subarctic North East Pacific Ocean. In conjunction, DON measurements were made in the Straits of Juan de Fuca and Georgia within an estuarine system connected to the NE Pacific Ocean. The distribution of DON at the surface showed higher values of 4-17 muM in the Straits relative to values of 4-10 muM encountered along line P, respectively. Along line P, the concentration of DON showed an inshore-offshore gradient at the surface with higher values near the coast. The equation for the conservation of DON showed that horizontal transport of DON (inshore-offshore) was much larger than vertical physical mixing. Horizontal advection of DON-rich waters from the coastal estuarine system to the NE Pacific Ocean was likely the cause of the inshore-offshore gradient in the concentration of DON. Although the concentration of DON was very variable in space and time, it increased from winter to summer, with an average build up of 4.3 muM in the Straits and 0.7 muM in the NE subarctic Pacific. This implied seasonal DON sources of 0.3 mmol N m(-2) d(-1) at Station P and 1.5 mmol N m(-2) d(-1) in the Straits, respectively. These seasonal DON accumulation rates corresponded to about 15-20% of the seasonal nitrate uptake and suggested that there was a small seasonal build up of labile DON at the surface. However, the long residence times of 180-1560 d indicated that the most of the DON pool in surface waters was refractory in two very different productivity regimes of the NE Pacific. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Carbon dioxide dynamics and controls in a deep-water wetland on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

To initially characterize the dynamics and environmental controls of CO2, ecosystem CO2 fluxes were measured for different vegetation zones in a deep-water wetland on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during the growing season of 2002. Four zones of vegetation along a gradient from shallow to deep water were dominated, respectively by the emergent species Carex allivescens V. Krez., Scirpus distigmaticus L., Hippuris vulgaris L., and the submerged species Potamogeton pectinatus L. Gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Re), and net ecosystem production (NEP) were markedly different among the vegetation zones, with lower Re and GPP in deeper water. NEP was highest in the Scirpus-dominated zone with moderate water depth, but lowest in the Potamogeton-zone that occupied approximately 75% of the total wetland area. Diurnal variation in CO2 flux was highly correlated with variation in light intensity and soil temperature. The relationship between CO2 flux and these environmental variables varied among the vegetation zones. Seasonal CO2 fluxes, including GPP, Re, and NEP, were strongly correlated with aboveground biomass, which was in turn determined by water depth. In the early growing season, temperature sensitivity (Q(10)) for Re varied from 6.0 to 8.9 depending on vegetation zone. Q(10) decreased in the late growing season. Estimated NEP for the whole deep-water wetland over the growing season was 24 g C m(-2). Our results suggest that water depth is the major environmental control of seasonal variation in CO2 flux, whereas photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) controls diurnal dynamics.

Seasonal patterns of gross primary production and ecosystem respiration in an alpine meadow ecosystem on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

We measured the net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) in an alpine meadow ecosystem (latitude 37degrees29'-45'N, longitude 101degrees12'-23'E, 3250 m above sea level) on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau throughout 2002 by the eddy covariance method to examine the carbon dynamics and budget on this unique plateau. Diurnal changes in gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (R-e) showed that an afternoon increase of NEE was highly associated with an increase of R-e. Seasonal changes in GPP corresponded well to changes in the leaf area index and daily photosynthetic photon flux density. The ratio of GPP/R-e was high and reached about 2.0 during the peak growing season, which indicates that mainly autotrophic respiration controlled the carbon dynamics of the ecosystem. Seasonal changes in mean GPP and R-e showed compensatory behavior as reported for temperate and Mediterranean ecosystems, but those of GPP(max) and R-emax were poorly synchronized. The alpine ecosystem exhibited lower GPP (575 g C m(-2) y(-1)) than, but net ecosystem production (78.5 g C m(-2) y(-1)) similar to, that of subalpine forest ecosystems. The results suggest that the alpine meadow behaved as a CO2 sink during the 1-year measurement period but apparently sequestered a rather small amount of C in comparison with similar alpine ecosystems.

A model for the simulation of macroalgal population dynamics and productivity

A mathematical model to simulate the population dynamics and productivity of macroalgae is described. The model calculates the biomass variation of a population divided into size-classes. Biomass variation in each class is estimated from the mass balance of carbon fixation, carbon release and demographic processes such as mortality and frond breakage. The transitions between the different classes are calculated in biomass and density units as a function of algal growth. Growth is computed from biomass variations using an allometric relationship between weight and length. Gross and net primary productivity is calculated from biomass production and losses over the period of simulation. The model allows the simulation of different harvesting strategies of commercially important species. The cutting size and harvesting period may be changed in order to optimise the calculated yields. The model was used with the agarophyte Gelidium sesquipedale (Clem.) Born. et Thur. This species was chosen because of its economic importance as a the main raw material for the agar industry. Net primary productivity calculated with it and from biomass variations over a yearly period, gave similar results. The results obtained suggest that biomass dynamics and productivity are more sensitive to the light extinction coefficient than to the initial biomass conditions for the model. Model results also suggest that biomass losses due to respiration and exudation are comparable to those resulting from mortality and frond breakage. During winter, a significant part of the simulated population has a negative net productivity. The importance of considering different parameters in the productivity light relationships in order to account for their seasonal variability is demonstrated with the model results. The model was implemented following an object oriented programming approach. The programming methodology allows a fast adaptation of the model to other species without major software development.

Physical controls on the seasonal migration of the North Pacific transition zone chlorophyll front

The large seasonal migration of the transition zone chlorophyll front (TZCF) is of interest because a number of marine fauna, both commercial and endangered, appear to track it. Herein we examine the physical dynamics driving this seasonal migration of the TZCF. Vertical processes, traditionally viewed as controlling the dynamical supply of nutrients to surface waters, prove insufficient to explain seasonal variations in nutrient supply to the transition zone. Instead, we find that the horizontal Ekman transport of nutrients from higher latitudes drives the TZCF's southward migration. The estimated horizontal transport of nitrate supports up to 40% of new primary productivity in the region annually and nearly all of new primary productivity in the winter. The significance of horizontal advection to the North Pacific transition zone supports revising the paradigm that nutrients are supplied to surface waters from below. © 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.

Long-term dynamics of death rates of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia and improving air quality.

BACKGROUND: The respiratory tract is a major target of exposure to air pollutants, and respiratory diseases are associated with both short- and long-term exposures. We hypothesized that improved air quality in North Carolina was associated with reduced rates of death from respiratory diseases in local populations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed the trends of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia mortality and changes of the levels of ozone, sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and particulate matters (PM2.5 and PM10) using monthly data measurements from air-monitoring stations in North Carolina in 1993-2010. The log-linear model was used to evaluate associations between air-pollutant levels and age-adjusted death rates (per 100,000 of population) calculated for 5-year age-groups and for standard 2000 North Carolina population. The studied associations were adjusted by age group-specific smoking prevalence and seasonal fluctuations of disease-specific respiratory deaths. RESULTS: Decline in emphysema deaths was associated with decreasing levels of SO2 and CO in the air, decline in asthma deaths-with lower SO2, CO, and PM10 levels, and decline in pneumonia deaths-with lower levels of SO2. Sensitivity analyses were performed to study potential effects of the change from International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-9 to ICD-10 codes, the effects of air pollutants on mortality during summer and winter, the impact of approach when only the underlying causes of deaths were used, and when mortality and air-quality data were analyzed on the county level. In each case, the results of sensitivity analyses demonstrated stability. The importance of analysis of pneumonia as an underlying cause of death was also highlighted. CONCLUSION: Significant associations were observed between decreasing death rates of emphysema, asthma, and pneumonia and decreases in levels of ambient air pollutants in North Carolina.

Temporal dynamics of host molecular responses differentiate symptomatic and asymptomatic influenza a infection.

Exposure to influenza viruses is necessary, but not sufficient, for healthy human hosts to develop symptomatic illness. The host response is an important determinant of disease progression. In order to delineate host molecular responses that differentiate symptomatic and asymptomatic Influenza A infection, we inoculated 17 healthy adults with live influenza (H3N2/Wisconsin) and examined changes in host peripheral blood gene expression at 16 timepoints over 132 hours. Here we present distinct transcriptional dynamics of host responses unique to asymptomatic and symptomatic infections. We show that symptomatic hosts invoke, simultaneously, multiple pattern recognition receptors-mediated antiviral and inflammatory responses that may relate to virus-induced oxidative stress. In contrast, asymptomatic subjects tightly regulate these responses and exhibit elevated expression of genes that function in antioxidant responses and cell-mediated responses. We reveal an ab initio molecular signature that strongly correlates to symptomatic clinical disease and biomarkers whose expression patterns best discriminate early from late phases of infection. Our results establish a temporal pattern of host molecular responses that differentiates symptomatic from asymptomatic infections and reveals an asymptomatic host-unique non-passive response signature, suggesting novel putative molecular targets for both prognostic assessment and ameliorative therapeutic intervention in seasonal and pandemic influenza.

Continuous Plankton Records - Seasonal-Variations In The Distribution And Abundance Of Plankton In The North-Atlantic Ocean And The North-Sea

Charts are presented of the seasonal variations in the distribution of four phytoplankton and five zooplankton taxa in the North Atlantic and the North Sea. The main factors determining the seasonal variations appear to be the distribution of the main overwintering stocks, the current system and, in some instances, temperature control of the rate of population increase. Information is presented about the variation with latitude (over the range from 34° N to 65 ° N) of the seasonal regime of the plankton. On the assumption that there is a relationship between nutrient supply and vertical temperature stratification the main features of this variability can be interpreted. In the south (to about 43° N) nutrient limitation plus grazing appear to be dominant, resulting in a bimodal seasonal cycle of phytoplankton. North of about 60° N the system appears to be limited by the size of the phytoplankton stocks being grazed primarily by Calanus Finmarchicus and Euphausiacea. In an extensive zone, from about 44° N to 60° N, it would appear that the spring bloom of phytoplankton is under-exploited by grazing while in summer the zooplankton graze the daily production of the phytoplankton, the stocks of which are probably maintained by in situ nutrient regeneration. The implications, for at least this mid-latitude zone, that rates and fluxes of processes, as opposed to density dependent interactions between stocks, play a major role in the dynamics of the seasonal cycle is consistent with previously reported observations suggesting that physical environmental factors play a major role in determining year-to-year fluctuations in the abundance of the plankton.

Population-Dynamics And Production Of Euphausiids. IV Euphausia-Krohni Nematoscelis-Megalops And Thysanoessa-Gregaria And 8 Rare Species In The North-Atlantic Ocean

Seasonal changes in the abundance, size and occurrence of furciliae of Euphausia krohni (Brandt), Nematoscelis megalops (G. O. Sars) and Thysanoessa gregaria G. O. Sars are described from samples taken at 10 m depth with the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) over a period of 2 yr (January 1966 to December 1967) in the North Atlantic Ocean. E. krohni and T. gregaria were found to breed through most of the year but N. megalops bred only in spring and summer. Annual mean biomass was calculated directly from the data and production was estimated from published P:B ratios. The seasonal occurrences of E. brevis Hansen, E. hemigibba Hansen, E. mutica Hansen, E. tenera Hansen, Stylocheiron longicorne G. O. Sars, S. maximum Hansen, Thysanopoda acutifrons Holt and Tattershall and T. aequalis Hansen in the samples are described.

Population-Dynamics And Production Of Euphausiids. III Meganyctiphanes-Norvegica And Nyctiphanes-Couchi In The North-Atlantic Ocean And The North-Sea

Seasonal changes in abundance, size and aspects of the population structure of Meganyctiphanes norvegica (M. Sars) and Nyctiphanes couchi (Bell) are described from samples taken with the “Continuous Plankton Recorder” at 10 m depth over a 2 yr period (1966 and 1967) in the North Atlantic Ocean and the North Sea. M. norvegica lived for a maximum of just over 2 yr, and adults of both year-classes spawned during a limited breeding season in the spring or summer. N. couchi spawned over a prolonged breeding season, giving rise to a complex of cohorts with overlapping size ranges. It was concluded that 3 or 4 cohorts were spawned in each year and that the maximum life span was probably greater than 1 yr, although maturity may be attained in less than a year. Estimated annual production at 10 m depth for M. norvegica ranged from 0.80 to 18.74 mg m-3yr-1 and for N. couchi from 0.67 to 8.23 mg m-3yr-1. P:B ratios ranged from 1.3:1 to 6.3:1 for M. norvegica and 4.0:1 to 5.5:1 for N. couchi.

Particle Dynamics Particulate Carbon And The Oxygen Minimum In An Estuary

Profiles of suspended particulate load and its organic and inorganic carbon contents as well as salinity, dissolved oxygen, ammonia and divalent manganese have been recorded throughout the mixing region of the Tamar Estuary,Southwest England, in late summer when there was pronounced net oxygen consumption. The results indicate that trapping of particulate organic detritus (of both riverine and marine origins) within the high turbidity zone contributes to the localisation and buffering of the seasonal oxygen demand exerted within the low salinity region of the estuary.

Population-Dynamics And Production Of Euphausiids .2. Thysanoessa-Inermis And Thysanoessa-Raschi In The North-Sea And American Coastal Waters

Results from the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey for 1966 and 1967 are used to describe seasonal changes in abundance, size and aspects of the population structure of Thysanoessa inermis (Krøyer) and T. raschi (M. Sars) at a depth of 10 m in the North Sea and in American coastal waters from the Grand Banks to the Gulf of Maine. Production and dry weight were estimated from these data. Two year-groups were usually present in the breeding population, the proportion surviving into a second year being higher in American waters than in the North Sea. Annual production for each species was within the range 0.69 to 4.66 mg m-3 and the ratio between production and biomass (P:B) was between 1.3 and 4.2; values outside these ranges were obtained only for American coastal waters in 1967, when the frequency of sampling was low.

Seasonal shelf-sea front mapping using satellite ocean colour and temperature to support development of a marine protected area network

Front detection and aggregation techniques were applied to 300m resolution MERIS satellite ocean colour data for the first time, to describe frequently occurring shelf-sea fronts near to the Scottish coast. Medium resolution (1km) thermal and colour data have previously been used to analyse the distribution of surface fronts, though these cannot capture smaller frontal zones or those in close proximity to the coast, particularly where the coastline is convoluted. Seasonal frequent front maps, derived from both chlorophyll and SST data, revealed a number of key frontal zones, a subset of which were based on new insights into the sediment and plankton dynamics provided exclusively by the higher-resolution chlorophyll fronts. The methodology is described for applying colour and thermal front data to the task of identifying zones of ecological importance that could assist the process of defining marine protected areas. Each key frontal zone is analysed to describe its spatial and temporal extent and variability, and possible mechanisms. It is hoped that these tools can provide guidance on the dynamic habitats of marine fauna towards aspects of marine spatial planning and conservation.