Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks, Part 4 of 4: eliciting a conditional probability table

An introduction to eliciting a conditional probability table in a Bayesian Network model, highlighting three efficient methods for populating a CPT.

On forward secrecy in one-round key exchange

Most one-round key exchange protocols provide only weak forward secrecy at best. Furthermore, one-round protocols with strong forward secrecy often break badly when faced with an adversary who can obtain ephemeral keys. We provide a characterisation of how strong forward secrecy can be achieved in one-round key exchange. Moreover, we show that protocols exist which provide strong forward secrecy and remain secure with weak forward secrecy even when the adversary is allowed to obtain ephemeral keys. We provide a compiler to achieve this for any existing secure protocol with weak forward secrecy.

Mapping intermedia news flows : topical discussions in the Australian and French political blogospheres

The growth of technologies and tools branded as =new media‘ or =Web 2.0‘ has sparked much discussion about the internet and its place in all facets of social life. Such debate includes the potential for blogs and citizen journalism projects to replace or alter journalism and mainstream media practices. However, while the journalism-blog dynamic has attracted the most attention, the actual work of political bloggers, the roles they play in the mediasphere and the resources they use, has been comparatively ignored. This project will look at political blogging in Australia and France - sites commenting on or promoting political events and ideas, and run by citizens, politicians, and journalists alike. In doing so, the structure of networks formed by bloggers and the nature of communication within political blogospheres will be examined. Previous studies of political blogging around the world have focussed on individual nations, finding that in some cases the networks are divided between different political ideologies. By comparing two countries with different political representation (two-party dominated system vs. a wider political spectrum), this study will determine the structure of these political blogospheres, and correlate these structures with the political environment in which they are situated. The thesis adapts concepts from communication and media theories, including framing, agenda setting, and opinion leaders, to examine the work of political bloggers and their place within the mediasphere. As well as developing a hybrid theoretical base for research into blogs and other online communication, the project outlines new methodologies for carrying out studies of online activity through the analysis of several topical networks within the wider activity collected for this project. The project draws on hyperlink and textual data collected from a sample of Australian and French blogs between January and August 2009. From this data, the thesis provides an overview of =everyday‘ political blogging, showing posting patterns over several months of activity, away from national elections and their associated campaigns. However, while other work in this field has looked solely at cumulative networks, treating collected data as a static network, this project will also look at specific cases to see how the blogospheres change with time and topics of discussion. Three case studies are used within the thesis to examine how blogs cover politics, featuring an international political event (the Obama inauguration), and local political topics (the opposition to the =Création et Internet‘, or HADOPI, law in France, the =Utegate‘ scandal in Australia). By using a mixture of qualitative and quantitative methods, the study analyses data collected from a population of sites from both countries, looking at their linking patterns, relationship with mainstream media, and topics of interest. This project will subsequently help to further develop methodologies in this field and provide new and detailed information on both online networks and internet-based political communication in Australia and France.

‘Argue with us!’: audience co-creation through post-performance discussions.

In this article Caroline Heim explores an avenue for the audience's contribution to the theatrical event that has emerged as increasingly important over the past decade: postperformance discussions. With the exception of theatres that actively encourage argument such as the Staatstheater Stuttgart, most extant audience discussions in Western mainstream theatres privilege the voice of the theatre expert. Caroline Heim presents case studies of post-performance discussions held after performances of Anne of the Thousand Days and Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf? which trialled a new model of audience co-creation. An audience text which informs the theatrical event was created, and a new role, that of audience critic, established in the process.

Discussions in space : interactive urban screens for enhancing citizen engagement

Local governments struggle to engage time poor and seemingly apathetic citizens, as well as the city's young digital natives, the digital locals. Capturing the attention of this digitally literate community who are technology and socially savvy adds a new quality to the challenge of community engagement for urban planning. This project developed and tested a lightweight design intervention towards removing the hierarchy between those who plan the city and those who use it. The aim is to narrow this gap by enhancing people's experience of physical spaces with digital, civic technologies that are directly accessible within that space. The study's research informed the development of a public screen system called Discussions In Space (DIS). It facilitates a feedback platform about specific topics, e.g., a concrete urban planning project, and encourages direct, in-situ, real-time user responses via SMS and Twitter. The thesis presents the findings of deploying and integrating DIS in a wide range of public and urban environments, including the iconic urban screen at Federation Square in Melbourne, to explore the Human-Computer Interaction (HCI) related challenges and implications. It was also deployed in conjunction with a major urban planning project in Brisbane to explore the system's opportunities and challenges of better engaging with Australia's new digital locals. Finally, the merits of the short-texted and ephemeral data generated by the system were evaluated in three focus groups with professional urban planners. DIS offers additional benefits for civic participation as it gives voice to residents who otherwise would not be easily heard. It also promotes a positive attitude towards local governments and gathers complementary information that is different than that captured by more traditional public engagement tools.

A decision table method for randomness measurement

Data quality has become a major concern for organisations. The rapid growth in the size and technology of a databases and data warehouses has brought significant advantages in accessing, storing, and retrieving information. At the same time, great challenges arise with rapid data throughput and heterogeneous accesses in terms of maintaining high data quality. Yet, despite the importance of data quality, literature has usually condensed data quality into detecting and correcting poor data such as outliers, incomplete or inaccurate values. As a result, organisations are unable to efficiently and effectively assess data quality. Having an accurate and proper data quality assessment method will enable users to benchmark their systems and monitor their improvement. This paper introduces a granules mining for measuring the random degree of error data which will enable decision makers to conduct accurate quality assessment and allocate the most severe data, thereby providing an accurate estimation of human and financial resources for conducting quality improvement tasks.

Challenges for researchers investigating contraceptive use and pregnancy intentions of young women living in urban and rural Australia : face-to-face discussions to increase participation in a web-based survey

Background: It is imperative to understand how to engage young women in research about issues that are important to them. There is limited reliable data on how young women access contraception in Australia especially in rural areas where services may be less available. Objective: This paper identifies the challenges involved in engaging young Australian women aged 18-23 years to participate in a web-based survey on contraception and pregnancy and ensure their ongoing commitment to follow-up web-based surveys. Methods: A group of young women, aged 18-23 years and living in urban and rural New South Wales, Australia, were recruited to participate in face-to-face discussions using several methods of recruitment: direct contact (face-to-face, telephone or email)and snowball sampling by potential participants inviting their friends. All discussions were transcribed verbatim and analyzed using thematic analysis. Results: Twenty young women participated (urban, n=10: mean age 21.6 years; rural, n=10: 20.0 years) and all used computers or smart phones to access the internet on a daily basis. All participants were concerned about the cost of internet access and utilized free access to social media on their mobile phones. Their willingness to participate in a web-based survey was dependent on incentives with a preference for small financial rewards. Most participants were concerned about their personal details and survey responses remaining confidential and secure. The most appropriate survey would take up to 15 minutes to complete, be a mix of short and long questions and eye-catching with bright colours. Questions on the sensitive topics of sexual activity, contraception and pregnancy were acceptable if they could respond with “I prefer not to answer”. Conclusions: There are demographic, participation and survey design challenges in engaging young women in a web-based survey. Based on our findings, future research efforts are needed to understand the full extent of the role social media and incentives play in the decision of young women to participate in web-based research.

Talking of many things : using topical networks to study discussions in social media

This paper outlines a method for studying online activity using both qualitative and quantitative methods: topical network analysis. A topical network refers to "the collection of sites commenting on a particular event or issue, and the links between them" (Highfield, Kirchhoff, & Nicolai, 2011, p. 341). The approach is a complement for the analysis of large datasets enabling the examination and comparison of different discussions as a means of improving our understanding of the uses of social media and other forms of online communication. Developed for an analysis of political blogging, the method also has wider applications for other social media websites such as Twitter.

Dads at the dinner table a cross-sectional study of Australian fathers' child feeding perceptions and practices

Maternal perceptions and practices regarding child feeding have been extensively studied in the context of childhood overweight and obesity. To date, there is scant evidence on the role of fathers in child feeding. This cross-sectional study aimed to identify whether characteristics of fathers and their concerns about their children’s risk of overweight were associated with child feeding perceptions and practices. Questionnaires were used to collect data from 436 Australian fathers (mean age = 37 years, SD = 6) of a child (53% boys) aged between 2-5 years (M = 3.5 years, SD = 0.9). These data included a range of demographic variables and selected subscales from the Child Feeding Questionnaire on concern about child weight, perceived responsibility for child feeding and controlling practices (pressure to eat and restriction). Multivariable linear regression was used to examine associations between demographic variables and fathers’ feeding perceptions and practices. Results indicated that fathers’ who were more concerned about their child becoming overweight reported higher perceived responsibility for child feeding and were more controlling of what and how much their child eats. Greater time commitment to paid work, possessing a health care card (indicative of socioeconomic disadvantage) and younger child age were associated with fathers’ perceiving less responsibility for feeding. Factors such as paternal BMI and education level, as well as child gender were not associated with feeding perceptions or practices. This study contributes to the extant literature on fathers’ role in child feeding, revealing several implications for research and interventions in the child feeding field.

Truncated differential analysis of reduced-round LBlock

In this paper we present truncated differential analysis of reduced-round LBlock by computing the differential distribution of every nibble of the state. LLR statistical test is used as a tool to apply the distinguishing and key-recovery attacks. To build the distinguisher, all possible differences are traced through the cipher and the truncated differential probability distribution is determined for every output nibble. We concatenate additional rounds to the beginning and end of the truncated differential distribution to apply the key-recovery attack. By exploiting properties of the key schedule, we obtain a large overlap of key bits used in the beginning and final rounds. This allows us to significantly increase the differential probabilities and hence reduce the attack complexity. We validate the analysis by implementing the attack on LBlock reduced to 12 rounds. Finally, we apply single-key and related-key attacks on 18 and 21-round LBlock, respectively.

Gambling on gambling in Baccarat : financial implications of raising bet limits and table differentials

The house advantage for Baccarat is known, hence the theoretical win can be determined. What is impractical to theoretically determine is the frequency and financial implications of extreme events, for example, prolonged winning streaks coupled with various betting patterns. The simulation herein provides such granularity. We explore the effect of following the „hot hand‟, that is, rapidly escalating bets when players are on a winning streak. To minimize their exposure, casino management sets a table bet maximum as well as a table differential. These figures can and do serve as a means to differentiate one casino from another. As the allowable bet maximum increases so does the total amount bet, which increases the theoretical winnings, thus suggesting that a high bet limit and differential is beneficial for the house. However, the greater are these amounts, the greater the number of shoes that end with players losing relative to a constant betting scenario (the number of times a player wins at all can drop from ~47% of the time to less than a quarter); but there will, on occasion, be more extreme payouts to players. This simulation is therefore intended to help casino managers set betting limits that maximize total winnings while bearing in mind both the likelihood and magnitude of negative outcomes to the casino.

Groundwater table response to sea level rise and its impact on pavement structure

It has been predicted that sea level will rise about 0.8 m by 2100. Consequently, seawater can intrude into the coastal aquifers and change the level of groundwater table. A raise in groundwater table due to seawater intrusion threats the coastal infrastructure such as road pavements. The mechanical properties of subgrade materials will change due to elevated rise of groundwater table, leading to pavement weakening and decreasing the subgrade strength and stiffness. This paper presents an assessment of the vulnerability of subgrade in coastal areas to change in groundwater table due to sea-level rise. A simple bathtub approach is applied for estimating the groundwater level changes according to sea-level rise. Then the effect of groundwater level changes on the soil water content (SWC) of a single column of fine-sand soil is simulated using MIKE SHE. The impact of an increase in moisture content on subgrade strength/stiffness is assessed for a number of scenarios.

Electrical imaging and fluid modeling of convective fingering in a shallow water-table aquifer

Unstable density-driven flow can lead to enhanced solute transport in groundwater. Only recently has the complex fingering pattern associated with free convection been documented in field settings. Electrical resistivity (ER) tomography has been used to capture a snapshot of convective instabilities at a single point in time, but a thorough transient analysis is still lacking in the literature. We present the results of a 2 year experimental study at a shallow aquifer in the United Arab Emirates that was designed to specifically explore the transient nature of free convection. ER tomography data documented the presence of convective fingers following a significant rainfall event. We demonstrate that the complex fingering pattern had completely disappeared a year after the rainfall event. The observation is supported by an analysis of the aquifer halite budget and hydrodynamic modeling of the transient character of the fingering instabilities. Modeling results show that the transient dynamics of the gravitational instabilities (their initial development, infiltration into the underlying lower-density groundwater, and subsequent decay) are in agreement with the timing observed in the time-lapse ER measurements. All experimental observations and modeling results are consistent with the hypothesis that a dense brine that infiltrated into the aquifer from a surficial source was the cause of free convection at this site, and that the finite nature of the dense brine source and dispersive mixing led to the decay of instabilities with time. This study highlights the importance of the transience of free convection phenomena and suggests that these processes are more rapid than was previously understood.