A new snowfall detection algorithm for high latitude regions based on a combination of active and passive sensors

Precipitation retrieval over high latitudes, particularly snowfall retrieval over ice and snow, using satellite-based passive microwave spectrometers, is currently an unsolved problem. The challenge results from the large variability of microwave emissivity spectra for snow and ice surfaces, which can mimic, to some degree, the spectral characteristics of snowfall. This work focuses on the investigation of a new snowfall detection algorithm specific for high latitude regions, based on a combination of active and passive sensors able to discriminate between snowing and non snowing areas. The space-borne Cloud Profiling Radar (on CloudSat), the Advanced Microwave Sensor units A and B (on NOAA-16) and the infrared spectrometer MODIS (on AQUA) have been co-located for 365 days, from October 1st 2006 to September 30th, 2007. CloudSat products have been used as truth to calibrate and validate all the proposed algorithms. The methodological approach followed can be summarised into two different steps. In a first step, an empirical search for a threshold, aimed at discriminating the case of no snow, was performed, following Kongoli et al. [2003]. This single-channel approach has not produced appropriate results, a more statistically sound approach was attempted. Two different techniques, which allow to compute the probability above and below a Brightness Temperature (BT) threshold, have been used on the available data. The first technique is based upon a Logistic Distribution to represent the probability of Snow given the predictors. The second technique, defined Bayesian Multivariate Binary Predictor (BMBP), is a fully Bayesian technique not requiring any hypothesis on the shape of the probabilistic model (such as for instance the Logistic), which only requires the estimation of the BT thresholds. The results obtained show that both methods proposed are able to discriminate snowing and non snowing condition over the Polar regions with a probability of correct detection larger than 0.5, highlighting the importance of a multispectral approach.

Self-organising coordination systems

Many research fields are pushing the engineering of large-scale, mobile, and open systems towards the adoption of techniques inspired by self-organisation: pervasive computing, but also distributed artificial intelligence, multi-agent systems, social networks, peer-topeer and grid architectures exploit adaptive techniques to make global system properties emerge in spite of the unpredictability of interactions and behaviour. Such a trend is visible also in coordination models and languages, whenever a coordination infrastructure needs to cope with managing interactions in highly dynamic and unpredictable environments. As a consequence, self-organisation can be regarded as a feasible metaphor to define a radically new conceptual coordination framework. The resulting framework defines a novel coordination paradigm, called self-organising coordination, based on the idea of spreading coordination media over the network, and charge them with services to manage interactions based on local criteria, resulting in the emergence of desired and fruitful global coordination properties of the system. Features like topology, locality, time-reactiveness, and stochastic behaviour play a key role in both the definition of such a conceptual framework and the consequent development of self-organising coordination services. According to this framework, the thesis presents several self-organising coordination techniques developed during the PhD course, mainly concerning data distribution in tuplespace-based coordination systems. Some of these techniques have been also implemented in ReSpecT, a coordination language for tuple spaces, based on logic tuples and reactions to events occurring in a tuple space. In addition, the key role played by simulation and formal verification has been investigated, leading to analysing how automatic verification techniques like probabilistic model checking can be exploited in order to formally prove the emergence of desired behaviours when dealing with coordination approaches based on self-organisation. To this end, a concrete case study is presented and discussed.

Studio di ausili tecnologici compensativi di supporto all'iter di apprendimento matematico secondario e universitario degli studenti con dislessia

Data coming out from various researches carried out over the last years in Italy on the problem of school dispersion in secondary school show that difficulty in studying mathematics is one of the most frequent reasons of discomfort reported by students. Nevertheless, it is definitely unrealistic to think we can do without such knowledge in today society: mathematics is largely taught in secondary school and it is not confined within technical-scientific courses only. It is reasonable to say that, although students may choose academic courses that are, apparently, far away from mathematics, all students will have to come to terms, sooner or later in their life, with this subject. Among the reasons of discomfort given by the study of mathematics, some mention the very nature of this subject and in particular the complex symbolic language through which it is expressed. In fact, mathematics is a multimodal system composed by oral and written verbal texts, symbol expressions, such as formulae and equations, figures and graphs. For this, the study of mathematics represents a real challenge to those who suffer from dyslexia: this is a constitutional condition limiting people performances in relation to the activities of reading and writing and, in particular, to the study of mathematical contents. Here the difficulties in working with verbal and symbolic codes entail, in turn, difficulties in the comprehension of texts from which to deduce operations that, once combined together, would lead to the problem final solution. Information technologies may support this learning disorder effectively. However, these tools have some implementation limits, restricting their use in the study of scientific subjects. Vocal synthesis word processors are currently used to compensate difficulties in reading within the area of classical studies, but they are not used within the area of mathematics. This is because the vocal synthesis (or we should say the screen reader supporting it) is not able to interpret all that is not textual, such as symbols, images and graphs. The DISMATH software, which is the subject of this project, would allow dyslexic users to read technical-scientific documents with the help of a vocal synthesis, to understand the spatial structure of formulae and matrixes, to write documents with a technical-scientific content in a format that is compatible with main scientific editors. The system uses LaTex, a text mathematic language, as mediation system. It is set up as LaTex editor, whose graphic interface, in line with main commercial products, offers some additional specific functions with the capability to support the needs of users who are not able to manage verbal and symbolic codes on their own. LaTex is translated in real time into a standard symbolic language and it is read by vocal synthesis in natural language, in order to increase, through the bimodal representation, the ability to process information. The understanding of the mathematic formula through its reading is made possible by the deconstruction of the formula itself and its “tree” representation, so allowing to identify the logical elements composing it. Users, even without knowing LaTex language, are able to write whatever scientific document they need: in fact the symbolic elements are recalled by proper menus and automatically translated by the software managing the correct syntax. The final aim of the project, therefore, is to implement an editor enabling dyslexic people (but not only them) to manage mathematic formulae effectively, through the integration of different software tools, so allowing a better teacher/learner interaction too.

Analisi critica di modelli previsionali per le frane in Emilia Romagna

Questa tesi di dottorato è inserita nell’ambito della convenzione tra ARPA_SIMC (che è l’Ente finanziatore), l’Agenzia Regionale di Protezione Civile ed il Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra e Geologico - Ambientali dell’Ateneo di Bologna. L’obiettivo principale è la determinazione di possibili soglie pluviometriche di innesco per i fenomeni franosi in Emilia Romagna che possano essere utilizzate come strumento di supporto previsionale in sala operativa di Protezione Civile. In un contesto geologico così complesso, un approccio empirico tradizionale non è sufficiente per discriminare in modo univoco tra eventi meteo innescanti e non, ed in generale la distribuzione dei dati appare troppo dispersa per poter tracciare una soglia statisticamente significativa. È stato quindi deciso di applicare il rigoroso approccio statistico Bayesiano, innovativo poiché calcola la probabilità di frana dato un certo evento di pioggia (P(A|B)) , considerando non solo le precipitazioni innescanti frane (quindi la probabilità condizionata di avere un certo evento di precipitazione data l’occorrenza di frana, P(B|A)), ma anche le precipitazioni non innescanti (quindi la probabilità a priori di un evento di pioggia, P(A)). L’approccio Bayesiano è stato applicato all’intervallo temporale compreso tra il 1939 ed il 2009. Le isolinee di probabilità ottenute minimizzano i falsi allarmi e sono facilmente implementabili in un sistema di allertamento regionale, ma possono presentare limiti previsionali per fenomeni non rappresentati nel dataset storico o che avvengono in condizioni anomale. Ne sono esempio le frane superficiali con evoluzione in debris flows, estremamente rare negli ultimi 70 anni, ma con frequenza recentemente in aumento. Si è cercato di affrontare questo problema testando la variabilità previsionale di alcuni modelli fisicamente basati appositamente sviluppati a questo scopo, tra cui X – SLIP (Montrasio et al., 1998), SHALSTAB (SHALlow STABility model, Montgomery & Dietrich, 1994), Iverson (2000), TRIGRS 1.0 (Baum et al., 2002), TRIGRS 2.0 (Baum et al., 2008).

Networks, Uncertainty, Applications and a Crusade for Optimality

In this thesis we address a collection of Network Design problems which are strongly motivated by applications from Telecommunications, Logistics and Bioinformatics. In most cases we justify the need of taking into account uncertainty in some of the problem parameters, and different Robust optimization models are used to hedge against it. Mixed integer linear programming formulations along with sophisticated algorithmic frameworks are designed, implemented and rigorously assessed for the majority of the studied problems. The obtained results yield the following observations: (i) relevant real problems can be effectively represented as (discrete) optimization problems within the framework of network design; (ii) uncertainty can be appropriately incorporated into the decision process if a suitable robust optimization model is considered; (iii) optimal, or nearly optimal, solutions can be obtained for large instances if a tailored algorithm, that exploits the structure of the problem, is designed; (iv) a systematic and rigorous experimental analysis allows to understand both, the characteristics of the obtained (robust) solutions and the behavior of the proposed algorithm.

Untersuchungen zum Engraftment primärer humaner akuter myeloischer Leukämieblasten in einem immundefizienten Mausmodel

Die akute myeloische Leukämie (AML) stellt ein äußerst heterogenes hämatologisches Krankheitsbild dar, welches durch die unkontrollierte Proliferation unausdifferenzierter und gleichzeitig nicht-funktioneller hämatopoetischer Zellen gekennzeichnet ist. Sowohl die unterschiedliche Zellherkunft, als auch zytogenetische Aberrationen und molekulargenetische Mutationen sorgen für eine große Diversität der Erkrankung. In der Therapie kommen Chemotherapeutika zum Einsatz, welche die Leukämie in eine komplette Remission bringen sollen. Der einzige kurative Ansatz besteht aus der allogenen hämatopoetischen Stammzelltransplantation. Abgesehen von den gewünschten kurativen Effekten, induzieren die im Transplantat befindlichen Spender-T-Lymphozyten ebenfalls die Transplantat-gegen-Wirt Erkrankung – eine Hauptursache von Mortalität und Morbidität nach erfolgter allogener hämatopoetischer Stammzelltransplantation. Da bei vielen Patienten aufgrund ihres Alters und ihrer Begleiterkrankungen eine Transplantation nicht tolerieren und da viele akuten myeloischen Leukämien trotz Chemotherapie progredient sind, schlägt die Therapie fehl und es gibt keine Chance auf Heilung. rnZur Erforschung der pathologischen Prozesse der akuten myeloischen Leukämie sowie für die Entwicklung neuer Therapiekonzepte bedarf es stabiler Tiermodelle, die die maligne Erkrankung des Menschen darstellen können. Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit war die Untersuchung des Engraftments humaner primärer akuter myeloischer Leukämien in immuninkompetenten NSG-Mäusen. Die Untersuchungen zeigten, dass lediglich 61,5% der getesteten Leukämien in den Versuchstieren nach der Xenotransplantation nachgewiesen werden konnten. Die Gründe hierfür sind noch nicht ausreichend geklärt, beinhalten jedoch vermutlich Elemente des Homings, des Überlebens der Zelle in der fremden murinen Knochenmarknische, der Abwesenheit spezifischer humaner Wachstumsfaktoren, sowie intrinsische Unterschiede unter den verschiedenen Leukämieproben. Leukämien, die mit einer schlechten Prognose beim Patienten verbunden sind, wachsen in den Tieren stärker an. In den Versuchen konnte gezeigt werden, dass Leukämien mit einer Längenmutation des FLT3-Rezeptors eher häufiger in den NSG-Mäusen anwachsen, als wenn diese Mutation fehlt. Die Analyse der erstellten Wachstumskinetiken zweier Leukämien ergab, dass die Höhe des Engraftments in den einzelnen Organen sowohl von der transplantierten Zellmenge, als auch von der Höhe der angesetzten Versuchszeit abhängt. Zudem wurde ein Wachstum humaner T-Lymphozyten in den xenotransplantierten Mäusen beobachtet, welches sowohl mit einem höheren Engraftment der Leukämie in der Maus verbunden war, als auch mit einer höheren Tiersterblichkeit vergesellschaftet war.rnZum Verhindern dieses Wachstums wurden zwei unterschiedliche Methoden angewendet und miteinander verglichen. Dabei erzielten sowohl die medikamentöse Behandlung der Tiere mit dem Calcineurininhibitor Cyclosporin A, als auch die CD3-Depletion der Leukämie vor der Transplantation ein T-Zell-freies Wachstum in den Mäusen, letzteres erwies sich jedoch als das schonendere Verfahren. In den T-Zell-freien Tieren konnte bei dem Großteil der Tiere kein Engraftment im Knochenmark festgestellt werden, was auf einen positiven Einfluss der humanen T-Lymphozyten beim Vorgang des Engraftments schließen lässt.rn

Biomedical engineering for healthy ageing. Predictive tools for falls

Falls are common and burdensome accidents among the elderly. About one third of the population aged 65 years or more experience at least one fall each year. Fall risk assessment is believed to be beneficial for fall prevention. This thesis is about prognostic tools for falls for community-dwelling older adults. We provide an overview of the state of the art. We then take different approaches: we propose a theoretical probabilistic model to investigate some properties of prognostic tools for falls; we present a tool whose parameters were derived from data of the literature; we train and test a data-driven prognostic tool. Finally, we present some preliminary results on prediction of falls through features extracted from wearable inertial sensors. Heterogeneity in validation results are expected from theoretical considerations and are observed from empirical data. Differences in studies design hinder comparability and collaborative research. According to the multifactorial etiology of falls, assessment on multiple risk factors is needed in order to achieve good predictive accuracy.

The Semantics and Typology of Yes/No Particles (A Cross-Linguistic Study)

Taking the three basic systems of Yes/No particles the group looked at the relative deep and surface structures, and asked what types of systems are present in the Georgian, Polish and Armenian languages. The choice of languages was of particular interest as the Caucasian and Indo-European languages usually have different question-answering systems, but Georgian (Caucasian) and Polish (Indo-European) in fact share the same system. The Armenian language is Indo-European, but the country is situated in the southern Caucasus, on Georgia's southern border, making it worth analysing Armenian in comparison with Georgian (from the point of view of language interference) and with Polish (as two relative languages). The group identified two different deep structures, tracing the occurrence of these in different languages, and showed that one is more natural in the majority of languages. They found no correspondence between relative languages and their question-answer systems and demonstrated that languages in the same typological class may show different systems, as with Georgian and the North Caucasian languages. It became clear that Georgian, Armenian and Polish all have an agree/disagree question-answering system defined by the same deep structure. From this they conclude that the lingual mentalities of Georgians, Armenians and Poles are more oriented to the communicative act. At the same time the Yes/No system, in which a positive particle stands for a positive answer and a negative particle for a negative answer, also functions in these languages, indicating that the second deep structure identified also functions alongside the first.

USING THE R PACKAGE crlmm FOR GENOTYPING AND COPY NUMBER ESTIMATION

Genotyping platforms such as Affymetrix can be used to assess genotype-phenotype as well as copy number-phenotype associations at millions of markers. While genotyping algorithms are largely concordant when assessed on HapMap samples, tools to assess copy number changes are more variable and often discordant. One explanation for the discordance is that copy number estimates are susceptible to systematic differences between groups of samples that were processed at different times or by different labs. Analysis algorithms that do not adjust for batch effects are prone to spurious measures of association. The R package crlmm implements a multilevel model that adjusts for batch effects and provides allele-specific estimates of copy number. This paper illustrates a workflow for the estimation of allele-specific copy number, develops markerand study-level summaries of batch effects, and demonstrates how the marker-level estimates can be integrated with complimentary Bioconductor software for inferring regions of copy number gain or loss. All analyses are performed in the statistical environment R. A compendium for reproducing the analysis is available from the author’s website (http://www.biostat.jhsph.edu/~rscharpf/crlmmCompendium/index.html).

The Risk Management of Minimum Return Guarantees

Contracts paying a guaranteed minimum rate of return and a fraction of a positive excess rate, which is specified relative to a benchmark portfolio, are closely related to unit-linked life-insurance products and can be considered as alternatives to direct investment in the underlying benchmark. They contain an embedded power option, and the key issue is the tractable and realistic hedging of this option, in order to rigorously justify valuation by arbitrage arguments and prevent the guarantees from becoming uncontrollable liabilities to the issuer. We show how to determine the contract parameters conservatively and implement robust risk-management strategies.

Chronology of Lake El'gygytgyn sediments – a combined magnetostratigraphic, palaeoclimatic and orbital tuning study based on multi-parameter analyses

A 318-metre-long sedimentary profile drilled by the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) at Site 5011-1 in Lake El’gygytgyn, Far East Russian Arctic, has been analysed for its sedimentologic response to global climate modes by chronostratigraphic methods. The 12 km wide lake is sited off-centre in an 18 km large crater that was created by the impact of a meteorite 3.58 Ma ago. Since then sediments have been continuously deposited. For establishing their chronology, major reversals of the earth’s magnetic field provided initial tie points for the age model, confirming that the impact occurred in the earliest geomagnetic Gauss chron. Various stratigraphic parameters, reflecting redox conditions at the lake floor and climatic conditions in the catchment were tuned synchronously to Northern Hemisphere insolation variations and the marine oxygen isotope stack, respectively. Thus, a robust age model comprising more than 600 tie points could be defined. It could be shown that deposition of sediments in Lake El’gygytgyn occurred in concert with global climatic cycles. The upper �160m of sediments represent the past 3.3 Ma, equivalent to sedimentation rates of 4 to 5 cm ka−1, whereas the lower 160m represent just the first 0.3 Ma after the impact, equivalent to sedimentation rates in the order of 45 cm ka−1. This study also provides orbitally tuned ages for a total of 8 tephras deposited in Lake El’gygytgyn.

The “Out of Africa Tribe” (II): Paleolithic warriors with big canoes and protective weapons

It is generally difficult to establish a timeline for the appearance of different technologies and tools during human cultural evolution. Here I use stochastic character mapping of discrete traits using human mtDNA phylogenies rooted to the Reconstructed Sapiens Reference Sequence (RSRS) as a model to address this question. The analysis reveals that the ancestral state of Homo sapiens was hunting, using material innovations that included bows and arrows, stone axes and spears. However, around 80,000 y before present, a transition occurred, from this ancestral hunting tradition, toward the invention of protective weapons such as shields, the appearance of ritual fighting as a socially accepted behavior and the construction of war canoes for the fast transport of large numbers of warriors. This model suggests a major cultural change, during the Palaeolithic, from hunters to warriors. Moreover, in the light of the recent Out of Africa Theory, it suggests that the “Out of Africa Tribe” was a tribe of warriors that had developed protective weapons such as shields and used big war canoes to travel the sea coast and big rivers in raiding expeditions.

Does the Federal Reserve Follow a Non-Linear Taylor Rule?

The Taylor rule has become one of the most studied strategies for monetary policy. Yet, little is known whether the Federal Reserve follows a non-linear Taylor rule. This paper employs the smooth transition regression model and asks the question: does the Federal Reserve change its policy-rule according to the level of inflation and/or the output gap? I find that the Federal Reserve does follow a non-linear Taylor rule and, more importantly, that the Federal Reserve followed a non-linear Taylor rule during the golden era of monetary policy, 1985-2005, and a linear Taylor rule throughout the dark age of monetary policy, 1960-1979. Thus, good monetary policy is associated with a non-linear Taylor rule: once inflation approaches a certain threshold, the Federal Reserve adjusts its policy-rule and begins to respond more forcefully to inflation.

Modelos determinístico y probabilístico para la estimación de la carga de nitratos en una cuenca rural

En este trabajo se desarrolló un modelo probabilístico que utiliza la teoría de la función de densidad de probabilidades derivada para estimar la carga media anual de nitratos transportada por el escurrimiento superficial, utilizando una relación funcional entre el escurrimiento y la carga de nitratos. El modelo determinístico hidrológico y de calidad de agua denominado Simulator for Water Resources in Rural Basins - Water Quality (SWRRB-WQ) fue utilizado para estimar la carga de nitratos en el escurrimiento superficial. Este modelo emplea como variable de entrada la precipitación diaria observada en la Estación del Aeropuerto de Olavarría durante el período 1988 a 2002. Para la calibración del modelo se aplicó una nueva metodología que estima la incertidumbre en los valores observados. Ambos modelos probabilístico y determinístico se aplican en una subcuenca rural del arroyo Tapalqué (provincia de Buenos Aires, Argentina) y finalmente se comparan los valores de la carga de nitratos estimados con los dos modelos con las observaciones realizadas en la sección del arroyo motivo de este estudio. Los resultados muestran que la carga media de nitratos obtenida con el modelo probabilístico es del mismo orden de magnitud que los valores medios observados y estimados con el modelo hidrológico y de calidad de agua SWRRB-WQ.

A review of estimation of distribution algorithms in bioinformatics

Evolutionary search algorithms have become an essential asset in the algorithmic toolbox for solving high-dimensional optimization problems in across a broad range of bioinformatics problems. Genetic algorithms, the most well-known and representative evolutionary search technique, have been the subject of the major part of such applications. Estimation of distribution algorithms (EDAs) offer a novel evolutionary paradigm that constitutes a natural and attractive alternative to genetic algorithms. They make use of a probabilistic model, learnt from the promising solutions, to guide the search process. In this paper, we set out a basic taxonomy of EDA techniques, underlining the nature and complexity of the probabilistic model of each EDA variant. We review a set of innovative works that make use of EDA techniques to solve challenging bioinformatics problems, emphasizing the EDA paradigm's potential for further research in this domain.