Long-term risk of first recurrent stroke in the Perth Community Stroke Study

Background and Purpose-Few community-based studies have examined the long-term risk of recurrent stroke after an acute first-ever stroke. This study aimed to determine the absolute and relative risks of a first recurrent stroke over the first 5 years after a first-ever stroke and the predictors of such recurrence in a population-based series of people with first-ever stroke in Perth, Western Australia. Methods-Between February 1989 and August 1990, all people with a suspected acute stroke or transient ischemic attack of the brain who were resident in a geographically defined region of Perth, Western Australia, with a population of 138 708 people, were registered prospectively and assessed according to standardized diagnostic criteria. Patients were followed up prospectively at 4 months, 12 months, and 5 years after the index event. Results-Three hundred seventy patients with a first-ever stroke were registered, of whom 351 survived >2 days. Data were available for 98% of the cohort at 5 years, by which time 199 patients (58%) had died and 52 (15%) had experienced a recurrent stroke, 12 (23%) of which were fatal within 28 days. The 5-year cumulative risk of first recurrent stroke was 22.5% (95% confidence limits [CL], 16.8%, 28.1%). The risk of recurrent stroke was greatest in the first 6 months after stroke, at 8.8% (95% CL, 5.4%, 12.1%). After adjustment for age and sex, the prognostic factors for recurrent stroke were advanced, but not extreme, age (75 to 84 years) (hazard ratio [HR], 2.6; 95% CL, 1.1, 6.2), hemorrhagic index stroke (HR, 2.1; 95% CL, 0.98, 4.4), and diabetes mellitus (HR, 2.1; 95% CL, 0.95, 4.4). Conclusions-Approximately 1 in 6 survivors (15%) of a first-ever stroke experience a recurrent stroke over the next 5 years, of which 25% are fatal within 28 days. The pathological subtype of the recurrent stroke is the same as that of the index stroke in 88% of cases. The predictors of first recurrent stroke in this study were advanced age, hemorrhagic index stroke, and diabetes mellitus, but numbers of recurrent events were modest. Because the risk of recurrent stroke is highest (8.8%) in the first 6 months after stroke, strategies for secondary prevention should be initiated as soon as possible after the index event.

Absolute risk of breast cancer for Australian women with a family history

Background: The purpose of the present paper was to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer over the remainder of a lifetime in Australian women with different categories of family history. Methods: Age-specific breast cancer incidence rates were adjusted for screening effects, and rates in those with no family history were estimated using the attributable fraction (AF). Relative risks from a published meta-analysis were applied to obtain incidence rates for different categories of family history, and age-specific incidence was converted to cumulative risk of breast cancer. The risk estimates were based upon Australian population statistics and published relative risks. Breast cancer incidence was from New South Wales women for 1996. The AF was calculated using prevalence of a family history of breast cancer from data on Queensland women. The cumulative absolute risk of breast cancer was calculated from decade and mid-decade ages to age 79 years, not adjusted for competing causes of death. Results: Lifetime risk is approximately 8.6% (1 in 12) for the general population and 7.8% (1 in 13) for those without a family history. Women with one relative affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 6-8 and those with two relatives affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 4-6. The cumulative residual lifetime risk decreases with advancing age; by age 60 years all groups with only one relative affected have well above a 90% probability of not developing breast cancer to age 79 years. Conclusions: These Australian risk statistics are useful for public information and in the clinical setting. Risks given here apply to women with average breast cancer risk from other risk factors.

Hormonal factors and risk of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage - An international population-based, case-control study

Background and Purpose-Subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) is more common in women than in men, but the role of hormonal factors in its etiology remains uncertain. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between hormonal factors and risk of SAH in women. Methods-This was a prospective, multicenter, population-based, case-control study performed in 4 major urban centers in Australia and New Zealand. Two hundred sixty-eight female cases of first-ever aneurysmal SAH occurred during 1995-1998. Controls were 286 frequency-matched women from the general population of each center. Outcome measures included risk of SAH associated with use of oral contraceptive pills (OCPs), hormone replacement therapy (HRT), and various endogenous hormonal factors including menstrual patterns, parity, age at birth of first child, and breast-feeding practices. Results-Cases and controls did not differ with regard to menstrual and reproductive history except in age at bir th of first child, where older age was associated with reduced risk of SAH (odds ratio [OR], 0.63; 95% CI, 0.43, 0.91). Relative to never use of HRT, the adjusted OR for over use of HRT was 0.64 (95% CI, 0.41, 0.98), which did not alter significantly after further adjustment for possible confounding factors. Borderline evidence of an inverse association was detected for past use of HRT (adjusted OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.30, 1.13) and current use of HRT (adjusted OR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.40, 1.13), but there was no evidence of an association for use of OCPs (adjusted OR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.58, 1.60). Conclusions-The risks of SAH are lower in women whose first pregnancy is at an older age and women who have ever used HRT but not OCPs. The findings suggest an independent etiologic role for hormonal factors in the pathogenesis of aneurysmal SAH and provide support for a protective role fur HRT on risk of SAH in postmenopausal women.

How to do safe sternal reentry and the risk factors of redo cardiac surgery: A 21-year review with zero major cardiac injury

Objectives: Resternotomy is a common part of cardiac surgical practice. Associated with resternotomy are the risks of cardiac injury and catastrophic hemorrhage and the subsequent elevated morbidity and mortality in the operating room or during the postoperative period. The technique of direct vision resternotomy is safe and has fewer, if any, serious cardiac injuries. The technique, the reduced need for groin cannulation and the overall low operative mortality and morbidity are the focus of this restrospective analysis. Methods: The records of 495 patients undergoing 546 resternotomies over a 21-year period to January 2000 were reviewed. All consecutive reoperations by the one surgeon comprised patients over the age of 20 at first resternotomy: M:F 343:203, mean age 57 years (range 20 to 85, median age 60). The mean NYHA grade was 2.3 [with 67 patients (1), 273 (11),159 (111), 43 (IV), and 4 (V classification)] with elective reoperation in 94.6%. Cardiac injury was graded into five groups and the incidence and reasons for groin cannulation estimated. The morbidity and mortality as a result of the reoperation and resternotomy were assessed. Results: The hospital/30 day mortality was 2.9% (95% Cl: 1.6%-4.4%) (16 deaths) over the 21 years. First (481), second (53), and third (12) resternotomies produced 307 uncomplicated technical reopenings, 203 slower but uncomplicated procedures, 9 minor superficial cardiac lacerations, and no moderate or severe cardiac injuries. Direct vision resternotomy is crystalized into the principle that only adhesions that are visualized from below are divided and only sternal bone that is freed of adhesions is sewn. Groin exposure was never performed prophylactically for resternotomy. Fourteen patients (2.6%) had such cannulation for aortic dissection/aneurysm (9 patients), excessive sternal adherence of cardiac structures (3 patients), presurgery cardiac arrest (1 patient), and high aortic cannulation desired and not possible (1 patient). The average postop blood loss was 594 mL (95% CI:558-631) in the first 12 hours. The need to return to the operating room for control of excessive bleeding was 2% (11 patients). Blood transfusion was given in 65% of the resternotomy procedures over the 21 years (mean 854 mL 95% Cl 765-945 mL) and 41% over the last 5 years. Conclusions: The technique of direct vision resternotomy has been associated with zero moderate or major cardiac injury/catastrophic hemorrhage at reoperation. Few patients have required groin cannulation. In the postoperative period, there was acceptable blood loss, transfusion rates, reduced morbidity, and moderate low mortality for this potentially high risk group.

Nonoxynol-9 spermicide for prevention of vaginally acquired HIV and other sexually transmitted infections: systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials including more than 5000 women

We aimed to determine the effectiveness of the vaginally administered spermicide nonoxynol-9 (N-9) among women for the prevention of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs), We did a systematic review of randomised controlled trials, Nine such trials including 5096 women, predominantly sex workers, comparing N-9 with placebo or no treatment, were included. Primary outcomes were new HIV infection, new episodes of various STIs, and genital lesions. Five trials included HIV and nine included STI outcomes, and all but one (2% of the data) contributed to the meta-analysis. Overall, relative risks of HIV infection (1.12, 95% confidence interval 0.88-1.42), gonorrhoea (0.91, 0.67-1.24), chlamyclia (0.88, 0.77-1.01), cervical infection (1.01, 0.84-1-22), trichomoniasis (0.84, 0.69-1.02), bacterial vaginosis (0.88, 0.74-1.04) and candidiasis (0.97, 0.84-1.12) were not significantly different in the N-9 and placebo or no treatment groups. Genital lesions were more common in the N-9 group (1.18, 1.02-1.36). Our review has found no statistically significant reduction in risk of HIV and STIs, and the confidence intervals indicate that any protection that may exist is likely to be very small. There is some evidence of harm through genital lesions. N-9 cannot be recommended for HIV and STI prevention.

Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Association of tumor necrosis factor-alpha polymorphisms and ozone-induced change in lung function

Ozone is a major air pollutant with adverse health effects which exhibit marked inter-individual variability. In mice, regions of genetic linkage with ozone-induced lung injury include the tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF), lymphotoxin-alpha (LTA), Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4), superoxide dismutase (SOD2), and glutathione peroxidase (GPX1) genes. We genotyped polymorphisms in these genes in 51 individuals who had undergone ozone challenge. Mean change in FEV1 with ozone challenge, as a percentage of baseline, was -3% in TNF -308G/A or A/A individuals, compared with -9% in G/G individuals (p = 0.024). When considering TNF haplotypes, the smallest change in FEV1 with ozone exposure was associated with the TNF haplotype comprising LTA +252G/TNF -1031T/TNF -308A/TNF -238G. This association remained statistically significant after correction for age, sex, disease, and ozone concentration (p = 0.047). SOD2 or GPX1 genotypes were not associated with lung function, and the TLR4 polymorphism was too infrequent to analyze. The results of this study support TNF as a genetic factor for susceptibility to ozone-induced changes in lung function in humans, and has potential implications for stratifying health risks of air pollution.

Safety of the etonogestrel-releasing implant during the immediate postpartum period: a pilot study

Background: The effects of etonogestrel (ETG)-releasing contraceptive implant during the immediate postpartum period on maternal safety are unknown. Study design: Forty healthy women exclusively breastfeeding were randomized to receive either ETG-releasing implant 24-48 h after delivery (n=20) or depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA group; n=20) at the sixth week postpartum. We measured blood pressure, maternal and neonatal weight, body mass index (BMI; kg/m(2)), waist circumference (WC), complete blood count, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, tumor necrosis factor (TNF-alpha), lipid profile, fasting serum glucose and maintenance of exclusive lactation up to the 12th week postpartum. Results: Decreases in mean maternal weight, BMI (kg/m(2)) and WC were significantly greater in the ETG-releasing implant group than in the MPA group during the first 6 weeks postpartum (-4.64 +/- 2.71 kg vs. -2.6 +/- 2.45 kg mean +/- SD, p=.017; -1.77 +/- 1.06 kg/m(2) vs. -0.97 +/- 0.95 kg/m(2), p=.026; -15.3 +/- 6.72 cm vs. -9.05 +/- 5.84 cm, p=.003, respectively). In addition, total cholesterol and HDL, were lower in DMPA users, and TNF-alpha and leukocytes were higher in DMPA users compared to in the implant group, between 6 and 12 weeks after delivery. The newborns of implant users showed a trend towards gaining more weight, as compared with the infants of the DMPA mothers during the first 6 weeks of life (implant group: +1460.50 +/- 621.34 g vs. DMPA group: +1035.0 +/- 562.43 g, p=.05). The remaining variables, including the duration of exclusive breastfeeding, were similar between the groups. Conclusion: The insertion of ETG-releasing contraceptive implant during the immediate postpartum period was not associated with deleterious maternal clinical effects or with significant maternal metabolic alterations or decreased infant weight gain. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of Nicotine Exposure on Renal Function of Normal and Hypercholesterolemic Rats

Background/Aims: Renal risks of nicotine exposure associated with hypercholesterolemia are still unknown. Methods: Thus, hypercholesterolemic rats (HC) and their control (C) were evaluated by inulin clearance (InCl) measured at baseline and during nicotine infusion (100 mu g/kg b.w.). Five groups were studied: (i) C; (ii) DEN (C submitted to a renal denervation); (iii) C + L-arginine (0.25% in drinking water); (iv) HC, and (v) HC + L-arginine (0.25% in drinking water). Furthermore, C and HC had their renal blood flow (RBF) measured and they have also been chronically treated with nicotine (12.5 mu g/ml in drinking water) to assess InCl on the 8th day. Results: Nicotine increased blood pressure in C, DEN and HC and reduced InCl only in C. L-Arginine treatment blunted nicotine effects on blood pressure and increased InCl only in C. Moreover, nicotine did not change RBF in C but elicited in HC, whereas renal vascular resistance was increased in C and unchanged in HC. Indeed, chronic nicotine exposure has also reduced InCl in C. Conclusion: Nicotine acted on the adrenergic system and nitric oxide counteracted this action in C, but the same may not be applied to HC. An impairment in renal autoregulation may explain why InCl was unchanged in HC. Copyright (C) 2009 S. Karger AG, Basel

Gender, marital status, farm size and other factors influencing the extent of cash cropping in Kenya: A case study

This article examines the effects of commercialisation of agriculture on land use and work patterns by means of a case study in the Nyeri district in Kenya. The study uses cross sectional data collected from small-scale farmers in this district. We find that good quality land is allocated to non-food cash crops, which may lead to a reduction in non-cash food crops and expose some households to greater risks of possible famine. Also the proportion of land allocated to food crops declines as the farm size increases while the proportion of land allocated to non-food cash crops rises as the size of farm increases. Cash crops are also not bringing in as much revenue commensurate with the amount of land allocated to them. With growing commercialisation, women still work more hours than men. They not only work on non-cash food crops but also on cash crops including non-food cash crops. Evidence indicates that women living with husbands work longer hours than those married but living alone, and also longer than the unmarried women. Married women seem to lose their decision-making ability with growth of commercialisation, as husbands make most decisions to do with cash crops. Furthermore husbands appropriate family cash income. Husbands are less likely to use such income for the welfare of the family compared to wives due to different expenditure patterns. Married women in Kenya also have little or no power to change the way land is allocated between food and non-food cash crops. Due to deteriorating terms of trade for non-food cash crops, men have started cultivation of food cash crops with the potential of crowding out women. It is found that both the area of non-cash crops tends to rise with farm size but also the proportion of the farm area cash cropped rises in Central Kenya.

Marital status, farm size and other influences on the extent of cash cropping in Kenya: A household case study

This article examines the effects of marital status, farm size and other factors on the extent of cash cropping (and allocation of land use) by means of a case study in the Nyeri district in Kenya. It was found that married women are involved in the production of a relatively greater amount of output of cash crops than unmarried women since husbands prefer to have more land under cash crops than food crops. Farmers with better quality land allocate a high proportion of it to non-food cash crops, which may expose some households to greater risks of possible famine. The proportion of land allocated to food crops declines as the farm size increases while the proportion of land allocated to non-food cash crops rises as the size of farm increases. Age is also inversely associated with subsistence. Education, though inversely associated with subsistence farming does not appear to be statistically very significant as an influence on the composition of land use and composition of farm output. With growing commercialisation, married women work more hours than unmarried ones, working not only on non-cash food crops but also on non-food cash crops. Married women seem to lose their decision-making ability with growth of agricultural commercialisation, as husbands make most decisions to do with cash crops. Married women in Kenya also have little or no power to change the way land is allocated between food and non-food cash crops.

Relationship between breastfeeding duration and prevalence of posterior crossbite in the deciduous dentition

Introduction: This cross-sectional retrospective epidemiologic study assessed the relationship between exclusive breastfeeding duration and the prevalence of posterior crossbite in the deciduous dentition. Methods: Clinical examinations were performed in 1377 Brazilian children (690 boys, 687 girls), 3 to 6 years old, from 11 public schools in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Based on questionnaires answered by the parents, the children were classified into 4 groups according to the duration of exclusive breastfeeding: G1, never (119 subjects); G2, less than 6 months (720 subjects); G3, 6 to 12 months (312 subjects); and G4, more than 12 months (226 subjects). The statistical analyses included the chi-square test (P < 0.05) and the odds ratio. Results: The posterior crossbite was observed in 31.1%, 22.4%, 8.3%, and 2.2% of the children, in groups G1, G2, G3, and G4, respectively. The results showed a statistically significant relationship between exclusive breastfeeding duration and the prevalence of posterior crossbite. Conclusions: Children who were breastfed for more than 12 months had a 20-fold lower risk for the development of posterior crossbite compared with children who were never breastfed and a 5-fold lower risk compared with those breastfed between 6 and 12 months. (Am J Orthod Dentofacial Orthop 2010; 137:54-8)

Dietary fat intake and risk of type 2 diabetes in women

Background: The long-term relations between specific types of dietary fat and risk of type 2 diabetes remain unclear. Objective: Our objective was to examine the relations between dietary fat intakes and the risk of type 2 diabetes. Design: We prospectively followed 84204 women aged 34–59 y with no diabetes, cardiovascular disease, or cancer in 1980. Detailed dietary information was assessed at baseline and updated in 1984, 1986, and 1990 by using validated questionnaires. Relative risks of type 2 diabetes were obtained from pooled logistic models adjusted for nondietary and dietary covariates. Results: During 14 y of follow-up, 2507 incident cases of type 2 diabetes were documented. Total fat intake, compared with equivalent energy intake from carbohydrates, was not associated with risk of type 2 diabetes; for a 5% increase in total energy from fat, the relative risk (RR) was 0.98 (95% CI: 0.94, 1.02). Intakes of saturated or monounsaturated fatty acids were also not significantly associated with the risk of diabetes. However, for a 5% increase in energy from polyunsaturated fat, the RR was 0.63 (0.53, 0.76; P < 0.0001) and for a 2% increase in energy from trans fatty acids the RR was 1.39 (1.15, 1.67; P = 0.0006). We estimated that replacing 2% of energy from trans fatty acids isoenergetically with polyunsaturated fat would lead to a 40% lower risk (RR: 0.60; 95% CI: 0.48, 0.75). Conclusions: These data suggest that total fat and saturated and monounsaturated fatty acid intakes are not associated with risk of type 2 diabetes in women, but that trans fatty acids increase and polyunsaturated fatty acids reduce risk. Substituting nonhydrogenated polyunsaturated fatty acids for trans fatty acids would likely reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes substantially.

Sun exposure and interaction with family history in risk of melanoma, Queensland, Australia

Sun exposure is the main environmental risk factor for melanoma, but the timing of exposure during life that confers increased risk is controversial. Here we provide the first report of the association between lifetime and age-specific cumulative ultraviolet exposure and cutaneous melanoma in Queensland, Australia, an area of high solar radiation, and examine the association separately for families at high, intermediate and low familial melanoma risk. Subjects were a population-based sample of melanoma cases diagnosed and registered in Queensland between 1982 and 1990 and their relatives. The analysis included 1,263 cases and relatives with confirmed cutaneous melanoma and 3,111 first-degree relatives without melanoma as controls. Data an lifetime residence and sun exposure, family history and other melanoma risk factors were collected by a mailed questionnaire. Using conditional multiple logistic regression with stratification by family, cumulative sun exposure in childhood and in adulthood after age 20 was significantly associated with melanoma, with estimated relative risks of 1.15 per 5,000 minimal erythemal doses (MEDs) from age 5 to 12 years, and 1.52 per 5 MEDs/day from age 20. There was no association with sun exposure in families at high familial melanoma risk. History of nonmelanoma skin cancer (relative risk [RR] = 1.26) and multiple sunburns (RR = 1.31) were significant risk factors. These findings indicate that sun exposure in childhood and in adulthood are important determinants of melanoma but not in those rare families with high melanoma susceptibility, in which genetic factors are likely to be more important. (C) 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

The ethics of germ line gene manipulation - A five dimensional debate

Contributors to the debate surrounding the ethics of germ line gene manipulation have by and large concentrated their efforts on discussions of the potential risks that are associated with the use of this technology. Many international advisory committees have ruled out the acceptability of germ line gene manipulation at least for the time being. The purpose of this work is to generate much needed discussion on the many other ethical issues concerning the implementation of not only germ line gene manipulation but also other related biotechnologies. In this paper I systematically investigate and analyse the most salient issues put forward by proponents and opponents alike. I argue that if germ line manipulation proves to be a safe and effective procedure, then the principle of beneficence imposes on the medical profession a moral duty to pursue the technology.