Application of the BRAFO-tiered approach for benefit-risk assessment to case studies on natural foods

There is evidence that consumption of fish, especially oily fish, has substantial beneficial effects on health. In particular an inverse relationship of oily fish intake to coronary heart disease incidence has been established. These beneficial effects are ascribed to fish oil components including long chain ω-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids. On the other hand it should be noted that oily fish also contains hazardous substances such as dioxins, PCBs and methylmercury. Soy consumption has been associated with potential beneficial and adverse effects. The claimed benefits include reduced risk of cardiovascular disease; osteoporosis, breast and prostate cancer whereas potential adverse effects include impaired thyroid function, disruption of sex hormone levels, changes in reproductive function and increased breast cancer risk The two cases of natural foods highlight the need to consider both risks and benefits in order to establish the net health impact associated to the consumption of specific food products. Within the Sixth Framework programme of the European Commission, the BRAFO project was funded to develop a framework that allows for the quantitative comparison of human health risks and benefits in relation to foods and food compounds. This paper describes the application of the developed framework to two natural foods, farmed salmon and soy protein. We conclude that the BRAFO methodology is highly applicable to natural foods. It will help the benefit-risk managers in selecting the appropriate dietary recommendations for the population.

The impact of substituting SFA in dairy products with MUFA or PUFA on CVD risk: evidence from human intervention studies

With the substantial economic and social burden of CVD, the need to modify diet and lifestyle factors to reduce risk has become increasingly important. Milk and dairy products, being one of the main contributors to SFA intake in the UK, are a potential target for dietary SFA reduction. Supplementation of the dairy cow's diet with a source of MUFA or PUFA may have beneficial effects on consumers' CVD risk by partially replacing milk SFA, thus reducing entry of SFA into the food chain. A total of nine chronic human intervention studies have used dairy products, modified through bovine feeding, to establish their effect on CVD risk markers. Of these studies, the majority utilised modified butter as their primary test product and used changes in blood cholesterol concentrations as their main risk marker. Of the eight studies that measured blood cholesterol, four reported a significant reduction in total and LDL-cholesterol (LDL-C) following chronic consumption of modified milk and dairy products. Data from one study suggested that a significant reduction in LDL-C could be achieved in both the healthy and hypercholesterolaemic population. Thus, evidence from these studies suggests that consumption of milk and dairy products with modified fatty acid composition, compared with milk and dairy products of typical milk fat composition, may be beneficial to CVD risk in healthy and hypercholesterolaemic individuals. However, current evidence is insufficient and further work is needed to investigate the complex role of milk and cheese in CVD risk and explore the use of novel markers of CVD risk.

The use of risk registers by project managers

The construction industry is widely recognised as being inherent with risk and uncertainty. This necessitates the need for effective project risk management to achieve the project objectives of time, cost and quality. A popular tool employed in projects to aid in the management of risk is a risk register. This tool documents the project risks and is often employed by the Project Manager (PM) to manage the associated risks on a project. This research aims to ascertain how widely risk registers are used by Project Managers as part of their risk management practices. To achieve this aim entailed interviewing ten PMs, to discuss their use of the risk register as a risk management tool. The results from these interviews indicated the prevalent use of this document and recognised its effectiveness in the management of project risks. The findings identified the front end and feasibility phases of a project as crucial stages for using risk registers, noting it as a vital ingredient in the risk response planning of the decision making process. Moreover, the composition of the risk register was also understood, with an insight into how PMs produce and develop this tool also ascertained. In conclusion, this research signifies the extensive use of the risk register by PMs. A majority of PMs were of the view that risk registers constitute an essential component of their project risk management practices. This suggests a need for further research on the extent to which risk registers actually help PMs to control the risks in a construction project, particularly residual risks, and how this can be improved to minimize deviations from expected outcomes.

Postpartum GAD is a risk factor for postpartum MDD: the course and longitudinal relationships of postpartum GAD and MDD

Background The objective was to examine the course and longitudinal associations of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and major depressive disorder (MDD) in mothers over the postpartum 2 years. Method Using a prospective naturalistic design, 296 mothers recruited from a large community pool were assessed for GAD and MDD at 3, 6, 10, 14, and 24 months postpartum. Structured clinical interviews were used for diagnoses, and symptoms were assessed using self-report questionnaires. Logistic regression analyses were used to examine diagnostic stability and longitudinal relations, and latent variable modeling was employed to examine change in symptoms. Results MDD without co-occurring GAD, GAD without co-occurring MDD, and co-occurring GAD and MDD, displayed significant stability during the postpartum period. Whereas MDD did not predict subsequent GAD, GAD predicted subsequent MDD (in the form of GAD + MDD). Those with GAD + MDD at 3 months postpartum were significantly less likely to be diagnosis free during the follow-up period than those in other diagnostic categories. At the symptom level, symptoms of GAD were more trait-like than those of depression. Conclusions Postpartum GAD and MDD are relatively stable conditions, and GAD is a risk factor for MDD but not vice versa. Given the tendency of MDD and GAD to be persistent, especially when comorbid, and the increased risk for MDD in mothers with GAD, as well as the potential negative effects of cumulative exposure to maternal depression and anxiety on child development, the present findings clearly highlight the need for screening and treatment of GAD in addition to MDD during the postpartum period.

Use of virulence determinants and seropathotypes to distinguish high- and low-risk Escherichia coli O157 and non-O157 isolates from Europe

The presence of 10 virulence genes was examined using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in 365 European O157 and non-O157 Escherichia coli isolates associated with verotoxin production. Strain-specific PCR data were analysed using hierarchical clustering. The resulting dendrogram clearly separated O157 from non-O157 strains. The former clustered typical high-risk seropathotype (SPT) A strains from all regions, including Sweden and Spain, which were homogenous by Cramer's V statistic, and strains with less typical O157 features mostly from Hungary. The non-O157 strains divided into a high-risk SPTB harbouring O26, O111 and O103 strains, a group pathogenic to pigs, and a group with few virulence genes other than for verotoxin. The data demonstrate SPT designation and selected PCR separated verotoxigenic E. coli of high and low risk to humans; although more virulence genes or pulsed-field gel electrophoresis will need to be included to separate high-risk strains further for epidemiological tracing.

Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia

Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging due to reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semi-structured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the context of future drier climatic conditions. Scenarios also considered possible failure to respond in time to the emergent risk. This approach proved of great potential to support decision-making for risk management. It helped identify key forcing variables and generate insights into potential risks and trade-offs of different strategies. All scenarios showed increased wildfire risk in the event of more droughts. The ‘Hands-off’ scenario resulted in amplified impacts driven by intensifying trends, affecting particularly the agricultural production. The ‘Fire management’ scenario, which adopted a bottom-up approach to improve controlled burning, showed less trade-offs between wildfire risk reduction and production compared to the ‘Fire suppression’ scenario. Findings highlighted the importance of considering strategies that involve all actors who use fire, and the need to nest these strategies for a more systemic approach to manage wildfire risk. The FCM model could be used as a decision-support tool and serve as a ‘boundary object’ to facilitate collaboration and integration of different forms of knowledge and perceptions of fire in the region. This approach has also the potential to support decisions in other dynamic frontier landscapes around the world that are facing increased risk of large wildfires.

Brief behavioural activation for adolescent depression: working with complexity and risk

Given the long-term negative outcomes associated with depression in adolescence, there is a pressing need to develop brief, evidence based treatments that are accessible to more young people experiencing low mood. Behavioural Activation (BA) is an effective treatment for adult depression, however little research has focused on the use of BA with depressed adolescents, particularly with briefer forms of BA. In this article we outline an adaptation of brief Behavioral Activation Treatment of Depression (BATD) designed for adolescents and delivered in eight sessions (Brief BA). This case example illustrates how a structured, brief intervention was useful for a depressed young person with a number of complicating and risk factors.

Delaware Reservoirs’ Drought Risk Assessment: A Paleo View

The Delaware River provides half of New York City's drinking water, is a habitat for wild trout, American shad and the federally endangered dwarf wedge mussel. It has suffered four 100‐year floods in the last seven years. A drought during the 1960s stands as a warning of the potential vulnerability of the New York City area to severe water shortages if a similar drought were to recur. The water releases from three New York City dams on the Delaware River's headwaters impact not only the reliability of the city’s water supply, but also the potential impact of floods, and the quality of the aquatic habitat in the upper river. The goal of this work is to influence the Delaware River water release policies (FFMP/OST) to further benefit river habitat and fisheries without increasing New York City's drought risk, or the flood risk to down basin residents. The Delaware water release policies are constrained by the dictates of two US Supreme Court Decrees (1931 and 1954) and the need for unanimity among four states: New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Delaware ‐‐ and New York City. Coordination of their activities and the operation under the existing decrees is provided by the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC). Questions such as the probability of the system approaching drought state based on the current FFMP plan and the severity of the 1960s drought are addressed using long record paleo‐reconstructions of flows. For this study, we developed reconstructed total annual flows (water year) for 3 reservoir inflows using regional tree rings going back upto 1754 (a total of 246 years). The reconstructed flows are used with a simple reservoir model to quantify droughts. We observe that the 1960s drought is by far the worst drought based on 246 years of simulations (since 1754).

Need and opportunity: what are the main security threats to the pharmaceuticals industry in Latin America?

Os preços altos de produtos farmacêuticos patenteados sempre têm sido uma polêmica na América Latina. Considerando as disparidades económicas na região e a falta histórica do desenvolvimento, muitas vezes os preços altos servem como barreiras contra o acesso aos medicamentos essenciais. Por um lado, as companhias farmacêuticas dizem que os preços elevados são necessários para financiar os processos de pesquisa e desenvolvimento e para gerar um retorno do investimento lucrativo. Por outro lado, os consumidores, tanto privados como públicos, dizem que os preços altos têm resultado em uma falta histórica de medicamentos baratos. Neste debate, ambos lados têm realizado uma série de manobras e contramanobras que têm exposto algumas das vulnerabilidades do setor. Utilizando vários métodos de análise e entrevistas com profissionais no setor, este projeto analisa as vulnerabilidades do setor para determinar o risco, ao mesmo tempo tentando a responder à pergunta: Quais são as ameaças principais na segurança da indústria farmacêutica na América Latina? Justificação deste projeto é o aumento dos crimes relacionados aos produtos farmacêuticos na última década, que têm exposto os pacientes a um número de riscos mais alto. Uma compreensão das ameaças principais é necessária para melhor mitigar o risco, garantir a integridade de produtos e preservar a saúde pública.

Maintaining Tissue Perfusion in High-Risk Surgical Patients: A Systematic Review of Randomized Clinical Trials

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Associations between healthy eating patterns and indicators of metabolic risk in postmenopausal women

Background: Since human diets contain many components that may work synergistically to prevent or promote disease, assessing diet quality may be informative. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between quality diet, by using Healthy Eating Index (HEI), and metabolic risk indicators in postmenopausal women.Methods: This cross-sectional study included a total of 173 Brazilian women, aged 45-75 years, seeking healthcare at a public outpatient center. Food consumption assessed by 24 h-recall food inquiry was used to calculate HEI scores: >80 implied diet good, 80-51 diet needed improvement, and <51 diet poor. Anthropometric data included: body mass index (BMI = weight/height(2)), waist-circumference (WC), body fat (%BF) and lean mass (%LM). Data on total cholesterol (TC), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDLC), and triglycerides (TG) were also collected. Fisher's Exact test, and logistic regression method (to determine odds ratio, OR) were used in the statistical analysis.Results: Overweight and obesity were observed in 75.7% of the participants. Excessive %BF (> 35%) was observed in 56.1%, while %LM was reduced (<70%) in 78.1%. WC was elevated (= 88 cm) in 72.3%. Based on HEI values, diet quality was good in 3% (5/173), needed improvement in 48.5% (84/173), and was poor in 48.5% (84/173) of the cases. In this group, 75% of women had high intakes of lipids (> 35%), predominantly saturated and monounsaturated fat. on average, plasma TC, LDLC, and TG levels were higher than recommended in 57.2%, 79.2% and 45.1% of the women, respectively, while HDLC was low in 50.8%. There was association between HEI scores and the %BF that it was higher among women with HEI score < 80 (p = 0.021). There were not observed significant risk associations between HEI and lipid profile.Conclusion: Among the Brazilian postmenopausal women attending a public outpatient clinic, diet was considered to need improvement or to be of poor quality, attributed to high saturated fat ingestion, which probably caused a negative impact on metabolic risk indicators, namely body composition.

A function to predict the risk for death in the neonatal sepsis

This was a prospective study of 43 septic neonates at the NICU of the School of Medicine of Botucatu, São Paulo State University. Clinical and laboratory data of sepsis were analyzed based on outcome divided into two groups, survival and death. We calculated the discriminatory power of the relevant variables for the diagnosis of sepsis in each group, and using software for Discriminant Analysis, a function was proposed. There were 43 septic cases with 31 survivals and 12 deaths. The variables that had the highest discriminatory power were: n(o) of compromised systems, the SNAP, FiO2, and (A-a)O2. The study of these and others variables, such as birth weight, n(o) of risk factors, and pH using a Linear Discriminant Function(LDF) allowed us to identify the high-risk neonates for death with a low error rate (8.33%). The LDF was: F = 0.00043 (birth weight) + 0.30367 (n(o) of risk factors) - 0.1171 (n(o) of compromised systems) + 0.33223 (SNAP) + 2.27972 (pH) - 14.96511 (FiO2) + 0.01814 ((A-a)O2). If F > 22.77 there was high risk of death. This study suggests that the LDF at the onset of sepsis is useful for the early identification of the high-risk neonates that need special clinical and laboratory surveillance.

Low Apgar scores at 5 minutes in a low risk population: maternal and obstetrical factors and postnatal outcome

OBJETIVO: Avaliar a associação entre índice de Apgar menor que sete no 5º minuto, os fatores pré-natais e resultados pós-natais. MÉTODOS: Trata-se de estudo retrospectivo com 27.252 recém-nascidos em maternidade escola com população de baixo risco obstétrico, de janeiro de 2003 a dezembro de 2010. Prontuários de todos os casos com índice de Apgar < 7 no 5º minuto (n = 121; - 0,4%) e de 363 casos com Apgar > 7 no 5º minuto, escolhidos ao acaso, foram revisados. Os principais desfechos estudados foram: óbito neonatal, insuficiência respiratória neonatal, necessidade de intubação orotraqueal e de unidade terapia intensiva (UTI) neonatal e encefalopatia hipóxico-isquêmica. RESULTADOS: Após análise de regressão múltipla, desacelerações tardias (DIP II) (OR: 2,4; IC95%: 1,4-4,1) e período expulsivo prolongado (OR: 3,3; IC 95%: 1,3-8,3) se associaram com Apgar < 7 no 5º minuto; assim como com insuficiência respiratória ao nascimento (OR: 3,0; IC 95%: 1,3-6,9), intubação traqueal (OR: 2,5; IC 95%: 1,2-4,8), necessidade de UTI neonatal (OR: 9,5; IC 95%: 6,7-16,8) e encefalopatia hipóxico-isquêmica (OR: 14,1; IC 95%: 3,6-54,7). Nenhuma outra variável prénatal se associou com Apgar < 7 no 5º minuto (p < 0,05). CONCLUSÃO: DIP II e período expulsivo prolongado estão associados com Apgar < 7 no 5º minuto em população obstétrica de baixo risco; situação essa relacionada com maior risco de insuficiência respiratória no parto, necessidade de suporte ventilatório e encefalopatia hipóxico-isquêmica.

Detection of Altered Risk Factors in Hospitalized Patients with Coronary Artery Disease

OBJECTIVE: To assess biochemical, anthropometric, and dietary variables considered risk factors for coronary artery disease. METHODS: Using anthropometrics, dietary allowance, and blood biochemistry, we assessed 84 patients [54 males (mean age of 55± 8 years) and 30 females (mean age of 57±7 years)], who had severe ( > or =70% coronary artery obstruction) and nonsevere forms of coronary artery disease determined by cardiac catheterization. The severe form of the disease prevailed in 70% of the males and 64% of the females, and a high frequency of familial antecedents (92% ' 88%) and history of acute myocardial infarction (80% ' 70%) were observed. Smoking predominated among males (65%) and diabetes mellitus among females (43%). RESULTS: Males and females had body mass index and body fat above the normal values. Females with nonsevere lesions had HDL > 35 mg/dL, and this constituted a discriminating intergroup indicator. Regardless of the severity of the disease, hyperglycemia and hypertriglyceridemia were found among females, and cholesterolemia > 200 mg/dL in both sexes, but only males had LDL fraction > 160 mg/dL and homocysteine > 11.7 mmol/L. The male dietary allowance was inadequate in nutrients for homocysteine metabolism and in nutrients with an antioxidant action, such as the vitamins B6, C, and folate. Individuals of both sexes had a higher lipid and cholesterol intake and an inadequate consumption of fiber. The diet was classified as high-protein, high-fat, and low-carbohydrate. CONCLUSION: The alterations found had no association with the severity of lesions, indicating the need for more effective nutritional intervention.