Estimating Relative Risk Aversion, Risk-Neutral and Real-World Densities using Brazilian Real Currency Options

Building Risk-Neutral Densities (RND) from options data can provide market-implied expectations about the future behavior of a financial variable. And market expectations on financial variables may influence macroeconomic policy decisions. It can be useful also for corporate and financial institutions decision making. This paper uses the Liu et all (2007) approach to estimate the option-implied Risk-neutral densities from the Brazilian Real/US Dollar exchange rate distribution. We then compare the RND with actual exchange rates, on a monthly basis, in order to estimate the relative risk-aversion of investors and also obtain a Real-world density for the exchange rate. We are the first to calculate relative risk-aversion and the option-implied Real World Density for an emerging market currency. Our empirical application uses a sample of Brazilian Real/US Dollar options traded at BM&F-Bovespa from 1999 to 2011. The RND is estimated using a Mixture of Two Log-Normals distribution and then the real-world density is obtained by means of the Liu et al. (2007) parametric risktransformations. The relative risk aversion is calculated for the full sample. Our estimated value of the relative risk aversion parameter is around 2.7, which is in line with other articles that have estimated this parameter for the Brazilian Economy, such as Araújo (2005) and Issler and Piqueira (2000). Our out-of-sample evaluation results showed that the RND has some ability to forecast the Brazilian Real exchange rate. Abe et all (2007) found also mixed results in the out-of-sample analysis of the RND forecast ability for exchange rate options. However, when we incorporate the risk aversion into RND in order to obtain a Real-world density, the out-of-sample performance improves substantially, with satisfactory results in both Kolmogorov and Berkowitz tests. Therefore, we would suggest not using the “pure” RND, but rather taking into account risk aversion in order to forecast the Brazilian Real exchange rate.

Dental fluorosis: Exposure, prevention and management

Dental fluorosis is a developmental disturbance of dental enamel, caused by successive exposures to high concentrations of fluoride during tooth development, leading to enamel with lower mineral content and increased porosity. The severity of dental fluorosis depends on when and for how long the overexposure to fluoride occurs, the individual response, weight, degree of physical activity, nutritional factors and bone growth. The risk period for esthetic changes in permanent teeth is between 20 and 30 months of age. The recommended level for daily fluoride intake is 0.05 - 0.07 mg F/Kg/day, which is considered of great help in preventing dental caries, acting in remineralization. A daily intake above this safe level leads to an increased risk of dental fluorosis. Currently recommended procedures for diagnosis of fluorosis should discriminate between symmetrical and asymmetrical and/or discrete patterns of opaque defects. Fluorosis can be prevented by having an adequate knowledge of the fluoride sources, knowing how to manage this issue and therefore, avoid overexposure.

Uterine evaluation and gestation diagnosis in owl monkey (Aotus azarai infulatus) using the B mode ultrasound

Background Gynecological and obstetrical ultrasonography has become an indispensable tool in the routine management, health evaluation and research on captive non-human primates.Methods Ultrasound was used to evaluate the uterus and estimate the gestation of owl monkeys. Twelve couples were selected, where five were primiparous and seven multiparous females from the National Primate Center reproductive colony, Ananindeua-PA, Brazil. The procedures were carried out using the GE (R) Logiq 100 MP, equipped with a 7.5 MHz linear probe.Results the females showed a simple uterus, of elongated shape, regular outline and homogeneous echogenic texture. In the uterine measurements craniocaudal diameter, dorsoventral diameter and uterine volume (UV), significant differences were identified (P < 0.05) between ultrasound examinations of primiparous and multiparous females. The UV showed a positive correlation with the number of births. The gestational sac and the embryonic echo were visible between 28 and 38 days after mating. Between 48 and 68 days after mating, embryonic death was identified in all the gestations.Conclusions the chemical (use of tranquilizers) and husbandry factors (capture stress) may be related to the prenatal death. The establishing methods of conditioning the female to the ultrasonographic exam may offer a solution to this problem.

Recommended Guidelines for Submission, Trimming, Margin Evaluation, and Reporting of Tumor Biopsy Specimens in Veterinary Surgical Pathology

Neoplastic diseases are typically diagnosed by biopsy and histopathological evaluation. The pathology report is key in determining prognosis, therapeutic decisions, and overall case management and therefore requires diagnostic accuracy, completeness, and clarity. Successful management relies on collaboration between clinical veterinarians, oncologists, and pathologists. To date there has been no standardized approach or guideline for the submission, trimming, margin evaluation, or reporting of neoplastic biopsy specimens in veterinary medicine. To address this issue, a committee consisting of veterinary pathologists and oncologists was established under the auspices of the American College of Veterinary Pathologists Oncology Committee. These consensus guidelines were subsequently reviewed and endorsed by a large international group of veterinary pathologists. These recommended guidelines are not mandated but rather exist to help clinicians and veterinary pathologists optimally handle neoplastic biopsy samples. Many of these guidelines represent the collective experience of the committee members and consensus group when assessing neoplastic lesions from veterinary patients but have not met the rigors of definitive scientific study and investigation. These questions of technique, analysis, and evaluation should be put through formal scrutiny in rigorous clinical studies in the near future so that more definitive guidelines can be derived.

Laparoscopic evaluation and treatment of the impalpable testis

Objectives: To evaluate the laparoscopic technique as a diagnostic and therapeutic tool in the management of patients with impalpable testis. Material and Methods: Fifty-nine patients with mean age of 6.3 years underwent laparoscopy to evaluate 85 impalpable testes that were classified as absent, canalicular and intra-abdominal. In the case of testicular absence, the procedure was terminated. In the case of canalicular testis, open inguinal exploration was performed. In intra-abdominal testis, either laparoscopic orchiopexy or orchiectomy was performed. According to the length of the vascular pedicle, orchipexy was performed either with or without vascular ligature. Post-operatively, the treated testes were evaluated according to size and location in the scrotum. Results: Seventeen (20%) of the 85 impalpable testes were diagnosed as absent, 21 (24.7%) as canalicular and 47 (55.3%) as intra-abdominal. Of the canalicular testes, 20 were explored by inguinotomy and one by laparoscopy. All the intra-abdominal testes were treated initially by laparoscopy, four being removed due to atrophy, 31 submitted to vascular ligature and 12 to primary orchipexy. Of those submitted to vascular ligature, 22 underwent a second stage orchipexy, of which 18 laparoscopically and 4 by inguinotomy. Of the 18 testes brought to the scrotum by staged laparoscopic orchipexy, 15 (83.3%) presented normal characteristics in the late follow-up, while of the 12 submitted to primary laparoscopic orchipexy, 8 (66.6%) were normal. There were no perioperative or late complications. Conclusions: Laparoscopy is a minimally invasive procedure with low morbidity that enables precise diagnosis of the impalpable testes. When intra-abdominal testes are found, either immediate laparoscopic orchiectomy, or primary and staged orchipexy are possible, with results equivalent to open procedures, with the advantage of smaller surgical incisions and shorter postoperative recovery.

Late-onset sepsis: Epidemiology, evaluation, and outcome

Late-onset neonatal sepsis is a common serious problem in preterm infants in neonatal intensive care units. Diagnosis can be difficult because clinical manifestations are not specific and none of the available laboratory tests can be considered an ideal marker. For this reason, a combination of markers has been proposed. Complete blood count and acute-phase reactants evaluated together help in diagnosis. C-reactive protein is a specific but late marker, and procalcitonin has proven accurate, although it is little studied in newborns. Blood, cerebrospinal fluid, and urine cultures always should be obtained when late-onset sepsis is suspected. Blood culture, the gold standard in diagnosis, is highly sensitive but needs up to 48 hours to detect microbial growth. Various cytokines have been investigated as early markers of infection, but results are not uniform. Other diagnostic tests that offer promise include: neutrophil surface markers, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor, toll-like receptors, and nuclear factor kappa B. The greatest hope for quick and accurate diagnosis lies in molecular biology, using real time polymerase chain reaction combined withDNAmicroarray. Sepsis and meningitis may affect both the short- and long-term prognosis for newborns. Mortality in neonatal meningitis has been reduced in recent years, but short-term complications and later neurocognitive sequelae remain. Late-onset sepsis significantly increases preterm infant mortality and the risk of cerebral lesions and neurosensory sequelae, including developmental difficulties and cerebral palsy. Early diagnosis of late-onset sepsis contributes to improved neonatal prognosis, but the outcome remains far from satisfactory. © 2010 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Electrocardiographic evaluation and serum cardiac troponin I levels in anemic dogs with blood parasitosis

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Environmental fragility evaluation and guidelines for environmental zoning: a study case on Ibiuna (the Southeastern Brazilian region)

Environmental fragility models are important decision tools for policy makers as they help quantify environmental sensitivity and understand the relationship between human activities and environmental quality. The objective of this study was to evaluate three different environmental fragility models within the Brazilian rainforest region and to use the results to develop environmental zone classes. Two rural river basins located in Ibiuna, Sao Paulo state, Brazil, were studied. Input variables, including slope class, relief dissection rate, soil class, lithology, land cover, and climate data, were used to compute environmental fragility classes using three standard models. The model outputs were evaluated on their ability to accurately predict the most sensitive and least sensitive areas. The best models for each region were used to derive environmental zoning maps, including restoration priorities, best regions for agriculture, and areas with high needs for soil management. These maps will help support land use strategies for environmental restoration. This study provides insight into territorial ordering and management of environmental services with a regional perspective.

Risk evaluation of diabetes mellitus by relation of chaotic globals to HRV

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Variations in Management of Mild Prenatal Hydronephrosis Among Maternal-Fetal Medicine Obstetricians, and Pediatric Urologists and Radiologists

Purpose: There are no current guidelines for diagnosing and managing mild prenatal hydronephrosis. Variations in physician approach make it difficult to analyze outcomes and establish optimal management. We determined the variability of diagnostic approach and management regarding prenatal hydronephrosis among maternal-fetal medicine obstetricians, pediatric urologists and pediatric radiologists. Materials and Methods: Online surveys were sent to mailing lists for national societies for each specialty. Participants were surveyed regarding criteria for diagnosing mild prenatal hydronephrosis and recommendations for postnatal management, including use of antibiotic prophylaxis, followup scheduling and type of followup imaging. Results: A total of 308 maternal-fetal medicine obstetricians, 126 pediatric urologists and 112 pediatric radiologists responded. Pediatric urologists and radiologists were divided between Society for Fetal Urology criteria and use of anteroposterior pelvic diameter for diagnosis, while maternal-fetal medicine obstetricians preferred using the latter. For postnatal evaluation radiologists preferred using personal criteria, while urologists preferred using anteroposterior pelvic diameter or Society for Fetal Urology grading system. There was wide variation in the use of antibiotic prophylaxis among pediatric urologists. Regarding the use of voiding cystourethrography/radionuclide cystography in patients with prenatal hydronephrosis, neither urologists nor radiologists were consistent in their recommendations. Finally, there was no agreement on length of followup for mild prenatal hydronephrosis. Conclusions: We observed a lack of uniformity regarding grading criteria in diagnosing hydronephrosis prenatally and postnatally among maternal-fetal medicine obstetricians, pediatric urologists and pediatric radiologists. There was also a lack of agreement on the management of mild intermittent prenatal hydronephrosis, resulting in these cases being managed inconsistently. A unified set of guidelines for diagnosis, evaluation and management of mild intermittent prenatal hydronephrosis would allow more effective evaluation of outcomes.

Lithiasis in 1,313 Kidney Transplants: Incidence, Diagnosis, and Management

Background. Renal transplantation remains the optimal treatment of patients with end-stage renal disease. Urinary lithiasis represents an unusual urologic complication in renal transplantation, with an incidence of <1%. Today, recipients of kidneys from deceased donors are more likely to receive grafts with undiagnosed lithiasis, which does not occur in patients from living donors, owing to screening with computerized tomography. Objective. The aim of this study was to evaluate the incidence, diagnosis, and therapeutic management of renal lithiasis in transplanted kidneys at a single institution. Methods. We reviewed the medical records for 1,313 patients who underwent kidney transplantation from February 1968 to February 2011. Results. Among the grafts, 17 patients (1.29%) had nephrolithiasis: 9 women and 8 men. Ages ranged from 32 to 63 years (mean = 45.6 years). Fifteen patients received kidneys from cadaveric and only 2 from living related donors. Two stones, both located inside the ureter, were identified during transplant surgery (11.7%). Three instances of lithiasis were incidentally diagnosed by ultrasound during graft evaluation, within 7 days after surgery (17.6%); all 3 were in the calyces. The 12 remaining patients had the stones diagnosed later (70.58%): 6 in the calyces, 3 in the renal pelvis, and 3 inside the ureter. Conclusions. Urinary lithiasis is a rare complication in renal transplantation. In most patients the condition occurs without pain. The diagnosis and treatment options for graft urolithiasis are similar to those patients with nephrofithiasis in the general population. Extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (ESWL) was the most common treatment method.

DETERMINATION OF DICLOFENAC SODIUM IN RABBIT PLASMA BY HPLC/UV: EVALUATION AND CHARACTERIZATION OF ITS CRYSTALLINE FORMS, ANHYDROUS AND HYDRATE, ON THE ANTIPYRETIC EFFECT

Diclofenac sodium (DS) is a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug that is widely prescribed for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis and post-surgery analgesia. The active pharmaceutical ingredient is the anhydrous form; however, it can also exist in hydrate form. In this context, knowing the properties of the solid state is important and relevant in the pharmaceutical area because they have a significant impact on the solubility, bioavailability, and chemical stability of the drugs. In the present study, data from XRPD, FTIR spectroscopy, and thermal analysis were used for the identification and characterization of DS forms (anhydrous and hydrate). An HPLC method was optimized to evaluate the plasma concentration of DS in rabbits. The optimized method exhibited good linearity over the range 0.1-60 mu g/mL with correlation coefficients of >0.9991. The mean recovery was 100%. Precision and accuracy were determined within acceptable limits. Finally, to compare the pharmacological properties of anhydrous and hydrate DS forms, we investigated their effects in the febrile response induced by lipopolysaccharide from E. coli in rabbits. The results show that the antipyretic effect of anhydrous and hydrate DS forms are similar.

Prodromal Questionnaire: translation, adaptation to Portuguese and preliminary results in ultra-high risk individuals and first episode psychosis

OBJECTIVE: The Prodromal Questionnaire (PQ) is a 92-item self-report screening tool for individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR) to develop psychosis. This study aims to present the translation to Portuguese and preliminary results in UHR and first episode (FE) psychosis in a Portuguese sample. METHODS: The PQ was translated from English to Portuguese by two bilingual researchers from the research program on early psychosis of the Instituto de Psiquiatria HCFMUSP, São Paulo, Brazil (ASAS - "Evaluation and Follow up of Adolescents and Young Adults in São Paulo") and back translated by two other researchers. The study participants (n = 11-) were evaluated through the Portuguese version of the Prodromal Questionnaire (PQ) and SIPS. RESULTS: The individuals at UHR (n = 7) presented a lower score than first episode patients (n = 4). The UHR mean scores and standard deviation on Portuguese version of the PQ were: 13.0 ± 10.0 points on positive symptoms subscale, and FE patients: 33.0 ± 10.0. CONCLUSION: The UHR and FE patients' of this study presented PQ scores similar to the ones found in the literature; what suggests that it is possible to use the PQ in Brazilian help-seeking individuals as a screening tool.

Stream sediments analysis for geochemical mapping of Romagna Apennines (Northern Italy): monitoring and management tool of environmental resources at various scales

Geochemical mapping is a valuable tool for the control of territory that can be used not only in the identification of mineral resources and geological, agricultural and forestry studies but also in the monitoring of natural resources by giving solutions to environmental and economic problems. Stream sediments are widely used in the sampling campaigns carried out by the world's governments and research groups for their characteristics of broad representativeness of rocks and soils, for ease of sampling and for the possibility to conduct very detailed sampling In this context, the environmental role of stream sediments provides a good basis for the implementation of environmental management measures, in fact the composition of river sediments is an important factor in understanding the complex dynamics that develop within catchment basins therefore they represent a critical environmental compartment: they can persistently incorporate pollutants after a process of contamination and release into the biosphere if the environmental conditions change. It is essential to determine whether the concentrations of certain elements, in particular heavy metals, can be the result of natural erosion of rocks containing high concentrations of specific elements or are generated as residues of human activities related to a certain study area. This PhD thesis aims to extract from an extensive database on stream sediments of the Romagna rivers the widest spectrum of informations. The study involved low and high order stream in the mountain and hilly area, but also the sediments of the floodplain area, where intensive agriculture is active. The geochemical signals recorded by the stream sediments will be interpreted in order to reconstruct the natural variability related to bedrock and soil contribution, the effects of the river dynamics, the anomalous sites, and with the calculation of background values be able to evaluate their level of degradation and predict the environmental risk.

Automatic risk evaluation in elderly patients based on Autonomic Nervous System assessment

Dysfunction of Autonomic Nervous System (ANS) is a typical feature of chronic heart failure and other cardiovascular disease. As a simple non-invasive technology, heart rate variability (HRV) analysis provides reliable information on autonomic modulation of heart rate. The aim of this thesis was to research and develop automatic methods based on ANS assessment for evaluation of risk in cardiac patients. Several features selection and machine learning algorithms have been combined to achieve the goals. Automatic assessment of disease severity in Congestive Heart Failure (CHF) patients: a completely automatic method, based on long-term HRV was proposed in order to automatically assess the severity of CHF, achieving a sensitivity rate of 93% and a specificity rate of 64% in discriminating severe versus mild patients. Automatic identification of hypertensive patients at high risk of vascular events: a completely automatic system was proposed in order to identify hypertensive patients at higher risk to develop vascular events in the 12 months following the electrocardiographic recordings, achieving a sensitivity rate of 71% and a specificity rate of 86% in identifying high-risk subjects among hypertensive patients. Automatic identification of hypertensive patients with history of fall: it was explored whether an automatic identification of fallers among hypertensive patients based on HRV was feasible. The results obtained in this thesis could have implications both in clinical practice and in clinical research. The system has been designed and developed in order to be clinically feasible. Moreover, since 5-minute ECG recording is inexpensive, easy to assess, and non-invasive, future research will focus on the clinical applicability of the system as a screening tool in non-specialized ambulatories, in order to identify high-risk patients to be shortlisted for more complex investigations.