Surrogate science: The idol of a universal method for scientific inference

The application of statistics to science is not a neutral act. Statistical tools have shaped and were also shaped by its objects. In the social sciences, statistical methods fundamentally changed research practice, making statistical inference its centerpiece. At the same time, textbook writers in the social sciences have transformed rivaling statistical systems into an apparently monolithic method that could be used mechanically. The idol of a universal method for scientific inference has been worshipped since the "inference revolution" of the 1950s. Because no such method has ever been found, surrogates have been created, most notably the quest for significant p values. This form of surrogate science fosters delusions and borderline cheating and has done much harm, creating, for one, a flood of irreproducible results. Proponents of the "Bayesian revolution" should be wary of chasing yet another chimera: an apparently universal inference procedure. A better path would be to promote both an understanding of the various devices in the "statistical toolbox" and informed judgment to select among these.

Estimating 750 years of temperature variations and uncertainties in the Pyrenees by tree-ring reconstructions and climate simulations.

Past temperature variations are usually inferred from proxy data or estimated using general circulation models. Comparisons between climate estimations derived from proxy records and from model simulations help to better understand mechanisms driving climate variations, and also offer the possibility to identify deficiencies in both approaches. This paper presents regional temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring maximum density series in the Pyrenees, and compares them with the output of global simulations for this region and with regional climate model simulations conducted for the target region. An ensemble of 24 reconstructions of May-to-September regional mean temperature was derived from 22 maximum density tree-ring site chronologies distributed over the larger Pyrenees area. Four different tree-ring series standardization procedures were applied, combining two detrending methods: 300-yr spline and the regional curve standardization (RCS). Additionally, different methodological variants for the regional chronology were generated by using three different aggregation methods. Calibration verification trials were performed in split periods and using two methods: regression and a simple variance matching. The resulting set of temperature reconstructions was compared with climate simulations performed with global (ECHO-G) and regional (MM5) climate models. The 24 variants of May-to-September temperature reconstructions reveal a generally coherent pattern of inter-annual to multi-centennial temperature variations in the Pyrenees region for the last 750 yr. However, some reconstructions display a marked positive trend for the entire length of the reconstruction, pointing out that the application of the RCS method to a suboptimal set of samples may lead to unreliable results. Climate model simulations agree with the tree-ring based reconstructions at multi-decadal time scales, suggesting solar variability and volcanism as the main factors controlling preindustrial mean temperature variations in the Pyrenees. Nevertheless, the comparison also highlights differences with the reconstructions, mainly in the amplitude of past temperature variations and in the 20th century trends. Neither proxy-based reconstructions nor model simulations are able to perfectly track the temperature variations of the instrumental record, suggesting that both approximations still need further improvements.

Stock Market reaction to the CSR announcements of American fast food companies

The purpose of this study is to examine whether Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) announcements of the three biggest American fast food companies (McDonald’s, YUM! Brands and Wendy’s) have any effect on their stock returns as well as on the returns of the industry index (Dow Jones Restaurants and Bars). The time period under consideration starts on 1st of May 2001 and ends on 17th of October 2013. The stock market reaction is tested with an event study utilizing CAPM. The research employs the daily stock returns of the companies, the index and the benchmarks (NASDAQ and NYSE). The test of combined announcements did not reveal any significant effect on the index and McDonald’s. However the stock returns of Wendy’s and YUM! Brands reacted negatively. Moreover, the company level analyses showed that to their own CSR releases McDonald’s stock returns respond positively, YUM! Brands reacts negatively and Wendy’s does not have any reaction. Plus, it was found that the competitors of the announcing company tend to react negatively to all the events. Furthermore, the division of the events into sustainability categories showed statistically significant negative reaction from the Index, McDonald’s and YUM! Brands towards social announcements. At the same time only the index was positively affected by to the economic and environmental CSR news releases.

A View of the Fort and Harbour of Oswego from Lake Ontario, from the American Magazine March 1816

An image within the American Magazine, March 1816 Vol. I, No. 10. Page 369. A View of the Fort and Harbour of Oswego from Lake Ontario. Below the image it reads: "T. H. Wentworth del." Below the title it reads: "Representing the Attack by the British on the 6th of May 1814" Conducted by Horatio Gates Spafford, A.M. F.A.A.

National intelligencer, 22 May 1813 (vol. 13, no. 1977) - Newspaper

Volumes of interest were published between 1812 and 1815 with articles about the War of 1812. Issue for May 22, 1813 includes a letter of May 9th from Gen. W. H. Harrison to the Sec. of War, stating that the enemy had begun removing their artillery.

Instrument of Protest from Edward Barrori Palmer

Instrument of protest from Edward Barrori Palmer, Notary Public of Oakville regarding a protest by Samuel Sutherland, Master of the schooner Elizabeth and Charles McEacherin, mate. The schooner belonged to the Port of Niagara. It set sail from Port Credit to the Port of Niagara. On the 15th day of May there was a violent storm. On the 16th day of May, part of the deck and cargo consisting of lumber went overboard. The mainsail was lost and the jib was split due to the wind. All losses and damages should be borne by the merchants and whomever else it concerned and not by or through the insufficiency of the schooner of neglect by the officers and mariners. This is a 2 ½ page handwritten document, May 16, 1837.

Histoire de l'interprétation de la transition néolithique : évolution des théories, modèles et hypothèses

Ce mémoire reconstitue l’histoire des théories, modèles et hypothèses qui ont été formulés, principalement en archéologie, afin d’expliquer la naissance de l’agriculture qui correspond, du point de vue chronologique, à la transition (ou révolution) néolithique. Ces schèmes explicatifs sont décrits chronologiquement depuis la naissance de l’archéologie préhistorique, dans la première moitié du XIXe siècle, jusqu’à maintenant. Ils sont classifiés en fonction des principales écoles qui ont joué un rôle prédominant en archéologie préhistorique depuis son origine, soit : l’évolutionnisme multilinéaire, l’école culturelle-historique, le processualisme, le néodarwinisme et le postprocessualisme. Les théories spécifiques (dites de « niveau mitoyen » ou « régionales ») qui ont été avancées par ces écoles sont présentées dans leur ordre chronologique, soit (principalement) : les théories de la dessiccation ou de l’oasis, des flancs de colline, de la périphérie, du stress démographique, du festin compétitif, de la révolution des symboles, etc. Ce mémoire pose enfin les jalons d’une théorie multifactorielle qui intègre ou synthétise les principaux facteurs qui ont pu influer sur la naissance de l’agriculture et sur la transition néolithique.

Entre modernité et tradition : le cas du yoga du Cachemire à Montréal

Le yoga est une pratique ancestrale qui a connu une effervescence phénoménale ces quarante dernières années. S’insérant dans un monde en changement où l’individu et son rapport à son environnement ne sont plus perçus de la même manière, le yoga est une pratique qui véhicule un concept flexible et malléable, ajustable à une société occidentale en changement. Le Québec, et plus spécifiquement Montréal où s'est effectuée notre ethnographie, porte une histoire religieuse encore fortement présente où l’on découvre une effervescence de nouvelles pratiques depuis la Révolution tranquille des années soixante. C’est dans ce cadre que nous avons découvert le yoga cachemirien qui se base sur la tradition du sivaïsme tantrique non-duel du Cachemire. Cette pratique est encore peu connue dans le monde du yoga, bien qu’elle soit déjà bien installée comme objet d’étude dans les milieux académiques (Inde, France, Angleterre, Italie, États-Unis et Canada). Ce yoga se dit « traditionnel » à cause de son orientation non-duelle qui fait écho à l’enseignement délivré dans les tantras de cette tradition. Par ailleurs, cette pratique, majoritairement basée sur le senti et l’exploration tactile, ne porte pas les caractéristiques des yogas type ashtanga, Iyengar ou hatha, disponibles sur le marché. Notre exploration ethnographique s’est donc portée sur le vécu des membres de ce groupe et sur la pratique et le discours de l’enseignant. Les membres, majoritairement d’origine québécoise, appréhendent cette approche et cette sotériologie avec un vécu religieux culturel spécifiquement identifiable, que ce soit au niveau du corps, des idées ou de la formulation qu’ils en font. L’enseignant, quant à lui, présente la pratique comme l’application directe et vécue de la doctrine délivrée dans les tantras de la tradition du sivaïsme cachemirien. La pratique du yoga cachemirien se veut donc traditionnelle tout en s’acculturant au contexte contemporain dans lequel l’enseignement se délivre. Il est alors pertinent de comprendre la dynamique qui se génère dans ce processus de transposition traditionnelle au sein d’un contexte contemporain. C’est donc ce processus de construction/ transformation que nous allons tenter d’expliquer; celui-ci semble s’établir entre continuité traditionnelle et rupture d’éléments redéfinis et réinventés. Nous verrons que dans cette dynamique, observée tant dans le discours que la pratique, les limites ne sont pas aussi hermétiques qu'il n'y paraît : les concepts d’identité culturelle et de temporalité s’entrechoquent, se construisent les unes sur les autres dans un mouvement incessant et vivant.

Studies on the Quality of Rainwater at Various Land Use Locations and Variations by Interaction with Domestic Rainwater Harvesting Systems

The present study focused on the quality of rainwater at various land use locations and its variations on interaction with various domestic rainwater harvesting systems.Sampling sites were selected based upon the land use pattern of the locations and were classified as rural, urban, industrial and sub urban. Rainwater samples were collected from the south west monsoon of May 2007 to north east monsoon of October 2008, from four sampling sites namely Kothamangalam, Emakulam, Eloor and Kalamassery, in Ernakulam district of the State of Kerala, which characterized typical rural, urban, industrial and suburban locations respectively. Rain water samples at various stages of harvesting were also collected. The samples were analyzed according to standard procedures and their physico-chemical and microbiological parameters were determined. The variations of the chemical composition of the rainwater collected were studied using statistical methods. It was observed that 17.5%, 30%, 45.8% and 12.1% of rainwater samples collected at rural, urban, industrial and suburban locations respectively had pH less than 5.6, which is considered as the pH of cloud water at equilibrium with atmospheric CO,.Nearly 46% of the rainwater samples were in acidic range in the industrial location while it was only 17% in the rural location. Multivariate statistical analysls was done using Principal Component Analysis, and the sources that inf1uence the composition of rainwater at each locations were identified .which clearly indicated that the quality of rain water is site specific and represents the atmospheric characteristics of the free fall The quality of harvested rainwater showed significant variations at different stages of harvesting due to deposition of dust from the roof catchment surface, leaching of cement constituents etc. Except the micro biological quality, the harvested rainwater satisfied the Indian Standard guide lines for drinking water. Studies conducted on the leaching of cement constituents in water concluded that tanks made with ordinary portland cement and portland pozzolana cement could be safely used for storage of rain water.

Impact of sward type, cutting date and conditioning temperature on mass and energy flows in the integrated generation of solid fuel and biogas from semi-natural grassland

Energy production from biomass and the conservation of ecologically valuable grassland habitats are two important issues of agriculture today. The combination of a bioenergy production, which minimises environmental impacts and competition with food production for land with a conversion of semi-natural grasslands through new utilization alternatives for the biomass, led to the development of the IFBB process. Its basic principle is the separation of biomass into a liquid fraction (press fluid, PF) for the production of electric and thermal energy after anaerobic digestion to biogas and a solid fraction (press cake, PC) for the production of thermal energy through combustion. This study was undertaken to explore mass and energy flows as well as quality aspects of energy carriers within the IFBB process and determine their dependency on biomass-related and technical parameters. Two experiments were conducted, in which biomass from semi-natural grassland was conserved as silage and subjected to a hydrothermal conditioning and a subsequent mechanical dehydration with a screw press. Methane yield of the PF and the untreated silage was determined in anaerobic digestion experiments in batch fermenters at 37°C with a fermentation time of 13-15 and 27-35 days for the PF and the silage, respectively. Concentrations of dry matter (DM), ash, crude protein (CP), crude fibre (CF), ether extract (EE), neutral detergent fibre (NDF), acid detergent fibre (ADF), acid detergent ligning (ADL) and elements (K, Mg, Ca, Cl, N, S, P, C, H, N) were determined in the untreated biomass and the PC. Higher heating value (HHV) and ash softening temperature (AST) were calculated based on elemental concentration. Chemical composition of the PF and mass flows of all plant compounds into the PF were calculated. In the first experiment, biomass from five different semi-natural grassland swards (Arrhenaterion I and II, Caricion fuscae, Filipendulion ulmariae, Polygono-Trisetion) was harvested at one late sampling (19 July or 31 August) and ensiled. Each silage was subjected to three different temperature treatments (5°C, 60°C, 80°C) during hydrothermal conditioning. Based on observed methane yields and HHV as energy output parameters as well as literature-based and observed energy input parameters, energy and green house gas (GHG) balances were calculated for IFBB and two reference conversion processes, whole-crop digestion of untreated silage (WCD) and combustion of hay (CH). In the second experiment, biomass from one single semi-natural grassland sward (Arrhenaterion) was harvested at eight consecutive dates (27/04, 02/05, 09/05, 16/05, 24/05, 31/05, 11/06, 21/06) and ensiled. Each silage was subjected to six different treatments (no hydrothermal conditioning and hydrothermal conditioning at 10°C, 30°C, 50°C, 70°C, 90°C). Energy balance was calculated for IFBB and WCD. Multiple regression models were developed to predict mass flows, concentrations of elements in the PC, concentration of organic compounds in the PF and energy conversion efficiency of the IFBB process from temperature of hydrothermal conditioning as well as NDF and DM concentration in the silage. Results showed a relative reduction of ash and all elements detrimental for combustion in the PC compared to the untreated biomass of 20-90%. Reduction was highest for K and Cl and lowest for N. HHV of PC and untreated biomass were in a comparable range (17.8-19.5 MJ kg-1 DM), but AST of PC was higher (1156-1254°C). Methane yields of PF were higher compared to those of WCD when the biomass was harvested late (end of May and later) and in a comparable range when the biomass was harvested early and ranged from 332 to 458 LN kg-1 VS. Regarding energy and GHG balances, IFBB, with a net energy yield of 11.9-14.1 MWh ha-1, a conversion efficiency of 0.43-0.51, and GHG mitigation of 3.6-4.4 t CO2eq ha-1, performed better than WCD, but worse than CH. WCD produces thermal and electric energy with low efficiency, CH produces only thermal energy with a low quality solid fuel with high efficiency, IFBB produces thermal and electric energy with a solid fuel of high quality with medium efficiency. Regression models were able to predict target parameters with high accuracy (R2=0.70-0.99). The influence of increasing temperature of hydrothermal conditioning was an increase of mass flows, a decrease of element concentrations in the PC and a differing effect on energy conversion efficiency. The influence of increasing NDF concentration of the silage was a differing effect on mass flows, a decrease of element concentrations in the PC and an increase of energy conversion efficiency. The influence of increasing DM concentration of the silage was a decrease of mass flows, an increase of element concentrations in the PC and an increase of energy conversion efficiency. Based on the models an optimised IFBB process would be obtained with a medium temperature of hydrothermal conditioning (50°C), high NDF concentrations in the silage and medium DM concentrations of the silage.

La pelota no se mancha: Un estudio histórico sobre el desarrollo y la política en FIFA

Esta investigación se centra en la Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) como organización política. Intenta responder dos interrogantes primordiales: 1) ¿cómo la FIFA ha constituido el poder que tiene actualmente y, así, hacerse del monopolio indiscutido del fútbol? Y 2) ¿cómo ha cambiado en el tiempo la política interna de FIFA y su vínculo con la política internacional? Para lograr esto, se realiza un estudio histórico, basado principalmente en documentos, que intenta caracterizar y analizar los cambios de la organización en el tiempo. Se enfatizan las últimas dos presidencias de FIFA, de João Havelange y Joseph Blatter, como casos de estudio.

La instrumentalización de procedimientos democráticos en Irak tras la caída de Sadam Husein: tensión entre legalidad y legitimidad (2003-2010)

Esta investigación tiene como objetivo evidenciar la tensión entre legalidad y legitimidad, a raíz de la intervención de Estados Unidos en Irak en el año 2003. Dicha tensión es el resultado de la implementación de procedimientos democráticos que promovieron cambios legales en el gobierno iraquí. Sin embargo, fue la instrumentalización de tales procedimientos lo que generó una falta de legitimidad del gobierno iraquí por parte de algunos sectores sociales, debido a los intereses económicos, políticos y sociales que tenían aquellos grupos que detentaban el poder. La investigación ofrece un análisis sobre Irak bajo los conceptos de democracia formal, democracia sustancial, legalidad y legitimidad, con el propósito de comprender de manera detallada el tipo de democracia que se estableció en Irak y las tensiones generadas en la sociedad iraquí.

Biological control of Rhizoctonia solani Damping-off with a bacterium symbiotically associated with Steinernema abbasi

Rhizoctonia solani is a causal agent of damping-off of may cultivated plants. An isolate of the bacterium Pseudomonas oryzihabitans, symbiotically associated with the entomopathogenic nematode Steinernema abbasi, strongly inhibited the pathogen in vitro. The bacterium was firmly attached onto fungus mycelia and degraded the cell walls of the pathogen. In greenhouse experiments, bacterial suspension in sterile water applied in the soil, effectively controlled damping-off of radish.

The rodent species of the Ifugao Rice Terraces, Philippines - Target or non-target species for management?

We investigated the species diversity and habitat use of rodents in the Ifugao Rice Terraces (IRT), Luzon, Philippines, as a first step in their assessment either as pest species of rice or as potential non-target species of rodent control practice. Trapping was carried out in caneland and forest habitats adjacent to rice cropland using trap lines of 10 - 15 cage-traps. Four trapping rounds, each consisting of 5 nights trapping, were replicated at two sites during the months of May and June. A diverse rodent fauna was recorded, including the non-native pest species, Rattus tanezumi, and the native species, Rattus everetti and Chrotomys mindorensis. Results from trapping and spool-and-line tracking suggested that these native species do not contribute to rice damage and that several may actually be beneficial in the ricefield ecosystem as vermivores that feed on invertebrate pests. Control should therefore be directed at the pest species, R. tanezumi, minimising non-target effects on the non-pest rodent species.

Modern lovers

Modern Lovers was a survey show of contemporary art practices in dialogue with modernism, bringing together established and emerging artists based in London and international artists from Berlin, Jerusalem and Zagreb. The show features video, film, installation, sculpture, music and performance work that addresses the legacy of the avant garde and the survival of its aesthetics within contemporary culture. In 1976, as punk rock was busy smashing the cultural rubble left behind by the second world war and rejecting the consumer society that had emerged from the ruins, one band bravely announced that it wanted no part in this destruction. Jonathan Richman's Modern Lovers sang about how they still loved the old world. Neither parents nor girlfriends could understand, but the decaying inner city with its false promises of progress still held a fascination for Richman, who claimed he wanted to keep his place in this arcane landscape. Punk's assault on culture was the logical conclusion of modernism's linear narrative of art as a force of innovation that must reject preceding artistic movements to establish new ones. Echoing the negations of Dada, it set out to put an end to this narrative, an end to culture. It is partly because of this inherently destructive and totalising side of Modernism that it has come under harsh critique in the post modern era. Nevertheless, we are still caught up in the same dialectic of progress, revolution and destruction. Post modernism has failed to unseat our desire for the revolutionary moment, even as it has been co-opted to the degree of meaninglessness by the discourses of marketing and Capitalism. But, like Jonathan Richman, the artists in the exhibition "Modern Lovers" keep returning to modernism for something else. Instead of taking it at its word when it proffers revolution, they turn to it in search of reform. Still loving the old world and desiring a dialogue with the past, perhaps as an antidote to the eternal present of Capitalism, they are willing to engage with its aesthetics and ideas on equal ground. Leaving behind the ironic deconstructions of post modernism, they find perspectives worth salvaging and juxtapose them with contemporary visual productions. Trading in the grand narratives of modernity for a more personal approach, they don't seek the purity of form that drove the avant garde movements that inspire them but rather revel in adulteration, dilution and contamination of the past by the present". A live performance by sala-manca was sponsored by the British Council and took place May 26th, 19:00. MODERN LOVERS was accompanied by a catalogue (14.80 cm x 14.80 cm) including essays by Avi Pitchon, the sala-manca group and the curators. A discussion panel about the exhibition themes, as well as the catalogue launch,took place at Goldsmiths College's cinema on the 27th of May at 14:00, chaired by Dr. Suhail Malik (Senior Lecturer & Course Leader Postgraduate Fine Art Critical Studies at Goldsmiths College) and with the participation of Tom Morton (curator, Cubitt Gallery, and regular contributor to Frieze magazine), sala-manca (artist group), Dr. Amanda Beech (artist, curator and senior lecturer at the Wimbledon School of Art), Matthew Poole (course director of MA Gallery Studies, dept. of Art History and Theory at the University of Essex).