A regime view of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its response to anthropogenic forcing

The distribution of the daily wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is significantly negatively skewed. Dynamical and statistical analyses both suggest that this skewness reflects the presence of two distinct regimes—referred to as “Greenland blocking” and “subpolar jet.” Changes in both the relative occurrence and in the structure of the regimes are shown to contribute to the long-term NAO trend over the ERA-40 period. This is contrasted with the simulation of the NAO in 100-yr control and doubled CO2 integrations of the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3). The model has clear deficiencies in its simulation of the NAO in the control run, so its predictions of future behavior must be treated with caution. However, the subpolar jet regime does become more dominant under anthropogenic forcing and, while this change is small it is clearly statistically significant and does represent a real change in the nature of NAO variability in the model.

Research note: amendments to the model for predicting age at sexual maturity for growing pullets of layer strains following changes in photoperiod

A model was published by Lewis et al. (2002) to predict the mean age at first egg (AFE) for pullets of laying strains reared under non-limiting environmental conditions and exposed to a single change in photoperiod during the rearing stage. Subsequently, Lewis et al. (2003) reported the effects of two opposing changes in photoperiod, which showed that the first change appears to alter the pullet's physiological age so that it responds to the second change as though it had been given at an earlier age (if photoperiod was decreased), or later age (if photoperiod was increased) than the true chronological age. During the construction of a computer model based on these two publications, it became apparent that some of the components of the models needed adjustment. The amendments relate to (1) the standard deviation (S.D.) used for calculating the proportion of a young flock that has attained photosensitivity, (2) the equation for calculating the slope of the line relating AFE to age at transfer from one photoperiod to another, (3) the equation used for estimating the distribution of AFE as a function of the mean value, (4) the point of no return when pullets which have started spontaneous maturation in response to the current photoperiod can no longer respond to a late change in photoperiod and (5) the equations used for calculating the distribution of AFE when the trait is bimodal.

Effect of sex and genotype on cardiovascular biomarker response to fish oils: the FINGEN Study

Background: The lipid-modulatory effects of high intakes of the fish-oil fatty acids eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) are well established and likely to contribute to cardioprotective benefits. Objectives: We aimed to determine the effect of moderate EPA and DHA intakes (< 2 g EPA + DHA/d) on the plasma fatty acid profile, lipid and apolipoprotein concentrations, lipoprotein subclass distribution, and markers of oxidative status. We also aimed to examine the effect of age, sex, and apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype on the observed responses. Design: Three hundred twelve adults aged 20-70 y, who were prospectively recruited according to age, sex, and APOE genotype, completed a double-blind placebo-controlled crossover study. Participants consumed control oil, 0.7 g EPA + DHA/d (0.7FO), and 1.8 g EPA + DHA/d (1.8FO) capsules in random order, each for an 8-wk intervention period, separated by 12-wk washout periods. Results: In the group as a whole, 8% and 11% lower plasma triacylglycerol concentrations were evident after 0.7FO and 1.8FO, respectively (P < 0.001): significant sex x treatment (P = 0.038) and sex x genotype x treatment (P = 0.032) interactions were observed, and the greatest triacylglycerol-lowering responses (reductions of 15% and 23% after 0.7FO and 1.8FO, respectively) were evident in APOE4 men. Furthermore, lower VLDL-cholesterol (P = 0.026) and higher LDL-cholesterol (P = 0.010), HDL-cholesterol (P < 0.001), and HDL2 (P < 0.001) concentrations were evident after fish-oil intervention. Conclusions: Supplements providing EPA + DHA at doses as low as 0.7 g/d have a significant effect on the plasma lipid profile. The results of the current trial, which used a prospective recruitment approach to examine the responses in population subgroups, are indicative of a greater triacylglycerol-lowering action of long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids in males than in females.

The impact of age on the postprandial vascular response to a fish oil-enriched meal

Although chronic fish oil intervention had been shown to have a positive impact on vascular reactivity, very little is known about their acute effects during the postprandial phase. Our aim was to examine the impact of a fish oil-enriched test meal on postprandial vascular reactivity in healthy younger ( < 50 years) v. older ( ≥ 50 years) men. Vascular reactivity was measured at baseline (0 h), 2 and 4 h after the meal by laser Doppler iontophoresis and blood samples taken at 0 and 4 h for the measurement of plasma lipids, total nitrite, glucose and insulin. Acetylcholine- (ACh, endothelial-dependent vasodilator) and sodium nitroprusside (SNP, endothelial-independent vasodilator)-induced reactivities were greater at 4 h than at baseline or 2 h in the younger men (P < 0·04). These changes were not observed in the older men. Comparison of the male groups revealed significantly greater responses to ACh (P = 0·006) and SNP (P = 0·05) at 4 h in the younger compared with the older males. Postprandial NEFA concentrations were also greater at 4 h in the younger compared with the older men (P = 0·005), with no differences observed for any of the other analytes. Multiple regression analysis revealed age to be the most significant predictor of both ACh and SNP induced reactivity 4 h after the meal. In conclusion, the ingestion of a meal enriched in fish oil fatty acids was shown to improve postprandial vascular reactivity at 4 h in our younger men, with little benefit evident in our older men.

Effect of sex and genotype on cardiovascular biomarker response to fish oils: the FINGEN Study

Background: The lipid-modulatory effects of high intakes of the fish-oil fatty acids eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) are well established and likely to contribute to cardioprotective benefits. Objectives: We aimed to determine the effect of moderate EPA and DHA intakes (< 2 g EPA + DHA/d) on the plasma fatty acid profile, lipid and apolipoprotein concentrations, lipoprotein subclass distribution, and markers of oxidative status. We also aimed to examine the effect of age, sex, and apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype on the observed responses. Design: Three hundred twelve adults aged 20-70 y, who were prospectively recruited according to age, sex, and APOE genotype, completed a double-blind placebo-controlled crossover study. Participants consumed control oil, 0.7 g EPA + DHA/d (0.7FO), and 1.8 g EPA + DHA/d (1.8FO) capsules in random order, each for an 8-wk intervention period, separated by 12-wk washout periods. Results: In the group as a whole, 8% and 11% lower plasma triacylglycerol concentrations were evident after 0.7FO and 1.8FO, respectively (P < 0.001): significant sex x treatment (P = 0.038) and sex x genotype x treatment (P = 0.032) interactions were observed, and the greatest triacylglycerol-lowering responses (reductions of 15% and 23% after 0.7FO and 1.8FO, respectively) were evident in APOE4 men. Furthermore, lower VLDL-cholesterol (P = 0.026) and higher LDL-cholesterol (P = 0.010), HDL-cholesterol (P < 0.001), and HDL2 (P < 0.001) concentrations were evident after fish-oil intervention. Conclusions: Supplements providing EPA + DHA at doses as low as 0.7 g/d have a significant effect on the plasma lipid profile. The results of the current trial, which used a prospective recruitment approach to examine the responses in population subgroups, are indicative of a greater triacylglycerol-lowering action of long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids in males than in females.

Circulating triacylglycerol and apoE levels in response to EPA and docosahexaenoic acid supplementation in adult human subjects

High doses of n-3 PUFA found in fish oils can reduce the circulating concentration of triacylglycerol (TG), which may contribute to the positive impact of these fatty acids on the risk of CVD. The present study aimed to establish the differential impact of EPA and docosahexaenoic (DHA) on plasma lipids and apo in adults. Forty-two normolipidaemic adult subjects completed a double-blind placebo controlled parallel study, receiving an EPA-rich oil (4.8 g EPA/d), DHA-rich oil (4.9 g DHA/d) or olive oil as control, for a period of 4 weeks. No effects of treatment on total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol or HDL-cholesterol were evident. There was a significant 22% reduction in TG level relative to the control value following the DHA treatment (P=0.032), with the 15% decrease in the EPA group failing to reach significance (P=0-258). There were no significant inter-group differences in response to treatment for plasma apoA1, -C3 or -E levels, although a significant 15% within-group increase in apoE was evident in the EPA (P=0.006) and DHA (P=0.003) groups. In addition, a within-group decrease in the apoAI:HDL-cholesterol ratio was observed in the DHA group, suggesting a positive impact of DHA on HDL particle size. The DHA intervention resulted in a significant increase in the proportion of EPA P=0.000 and DHA P=0.000 in plasma phospholipids, whilst significant increases in EPA P=0.000 and docosapentacnoic acid P=0.002, but not DHA P=0.193, were evident following EPA supplementation (P<0.05). Our present results indicate that DHA may be more efficacious than EPA in improving the plasma lipid profile.

Can a short period of micronutrient supplementation in older institutionalized people improve response to influenza vaccine? A randomized, controlled trial

OBJECTIVES: To test the hypothesis that a micronutrient supplement can improve seroconversion after influenza immunization in older institutionalized people. DESIGN: Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study. SETTING: Nursing and residential homes in Liverpool, United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: One hundred sixty-four residents aged 60 and older from 31 homes were initially randomized; of these, 119 (72.6%) completed the study. INTERVENTION: Participants were randomized to receive a micronutrient supplement providing the reference nutrient intake for all vitamins and trace elements or identical placebo. Tablets were taken over an 8-week period during September and October 2000; influenza vaccine was administered 4 weeks after their commencement. MEASUREMENTS: The hemagglutination-inhibiting antibody response as defined by a fourfold or greater titer rise over 4 weeks and assessed separately for each of the three antigens contained in the 2000/2001 influenza vaccine (A/New Caledonia/20/99 (H1N1), A/Moscow/10/99 (H3N2), B/Beijing/184/93 (B)). RESULTS: Despite a significant increase in serum concentrations of vitamins A, C, D-3, E, folate, and selenium in the supplemented group, there was no significant difference between groups (supplemented vs placebo, respectively) in the proportion of participants seroconverting to H1N1 (41% vs 49%, P=.374), H3N2 (49% vs 58%, P=.343), or B (41% vs 40%, P=.944). CONCLUSION: A micronutrient supplement providing the reference nutrient intake administered over 8 weeks had no beneficial effect on antibody response to influenza vaccine in older people living in long-term care.

A statistical mechanical approach for the computation of the climatic response to general forcings

The climate belongs to the class of non-equilibrium forced and dissipative systems, for which most results of quasi-equilibrium statistical mechanics, including the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, do not apply. In this paper we show for the first time how the Ruelle linear response theory, developed for studying rigorously the impact of perturbations on general observables of non-equilibrium statistical mechanical systems, can be applied with great success to analyze the climatic response to general forcings. The crucial value of the Ruelle theory lies in the fact that it allows to compute the response of the system in terms of expectation values of explicit and computable functions of the phase space averaged over the invariant measure of the unperturbed state. We choose as test bed a classical version of the Lorenz 96 model, which, in spite of its simplicity, has a well-recognized prototypical value as it is a spatially extended one-dimensional model and presents the basic ingredients, such as dissipation, advection and the presence of an external forcing, of the actual atmosphere. We recapitulate the main aspects of the general response theory and propose some new general results. We then analyze the frequency dependence of the response of both local and global observables to perturbations having localized as well as global spatial patterns. We derive analytically several properties of the corresponding susceptibilities, such as asymptotic behavior, validity of Kramers-Kronig relations, and sum rules, whose main ingredient is the causality principle. We show that all the coefficients of the leading asymptotic expansions as well as the integral constraints can be written as linear function of parameters that describe the unperturbed properties of the system, such as its average energy. Some newly obtained empirical closure equations for such parameters allow to define such properties as an explicit function of the unperturbed forcing parameter alone for a general class of chaotic Lorenz 96 models. We then verify the theoretical predictions from the outputs of the simulations up to a high degree of precision. The theory is used to explain differences in the response of local and global observables, to define the intensive properties of the system, which do not depend on the spatial resolution of the Lorenz 96 model, and to generalize the concept of climate sensitivity to all time scales. We also show how to reconstruct the linear Green function, which maps perturbations of general time patterns into changes in the expectation value of the considered observable for finite as well as infinite time. Finally, we propose a simple yet general methodology to study general Climate Change problems on virtually any time scale by resorting to only well selected simulations, and by taking full advantage of ensemble methods. The specific case of globally averaged surface temperature response to a general pattern of change of the CO2 concentration is discussed. We believe that the proposed approach may constitute a mathematically rigorous and practically very effective way to approach the problem of climate sensitivity, climate prediction, and climate change from a radically new perspective.

Changes of interannual NAO variability in response to greenhouse gases forcing

Observations show that there was change in interannual North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability in the mid-1970s. This change was characterized by an eastward shift of the NAO action centres, a poleward shift of zonal wind anomalies and a downstream extension of climate anomalies associated with the NAO. The NAO interannual variability for the period after the mid-1970s has an annular mode structure that penetrates deeply into the stratosphere, indicating a strengthened relationship between the NAO and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and strengthened stratosphere-troposphere coupling. In this study we have investigated possible causes of these changes in the NAO by carrying out experiments with an atmospheric GCM. The model is forced either by doubling CO2, or increasing sea surface temperatures (SST), or both. In the case of SST forcing the SST anomaly is derived from a coupled model simulation forced by increasing CO2. Results indicate that SST and CO2 change both force a poleward and eastward shift in the pattern of interannual NAO variability and the associated poleward shift of zonal wind anomalies, similar to the observations. The effect of SST change can be understood in terms of mean changes in the troposphere. The direct effect of CO2 change, in contrast, can not be understood in terms of mean changes in the troposphere. However, there is a significant response in the stratosphere, characterized by a strengthened climatological polar vortex with strongly enhanced interannual variability. In this case, the NAO interannual variability has a strong link with the variability over the North Pacific, as in the annular AO pattern, and is also strongly related to the stratospheric vortex, indicating strengthened stratosphere-troposphere coupling. The similarity of changes in many characteristics of NAO interannual variability between the model response to doubling CO2 and those in observations in the mid-1970s implies that the increase of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere, and the resulting changes in the stratosphere, might have played an important role in the multidecadal change of interannual NAO variability and its associated climate anomalies during the late twentieth century. The weak change in mean westerlies in the troposphere in response to CO2 change implies that enhanced and eastward extended mid-latitude westerlies in the troposphere might not be a necessary condition for the poleward and eastward shift of the NAO action centres in the mid-1970s.

The impact of the state of the troposphere on the response to stratospheric heating in a simplified GCM

Previous studies have made use of simplified general circulation models (sGCMs) to investigate the atmospheric response to various forcings. In particular, several studies have investigated the tropospheric response to changes in stratospheric temperature. This is potentially relevant for many climate forcings. Here the impact of changing the tropospheric climatology on the modeled response to perturbations in stratospheric temperature is investigated by the introduction of topography into the model and altering the tropospheric jet structure. The results highlight the need for very long integrations so as to determine accurately the magnitude of response. It is found that introducing topography into the model and thus removing the zonally symmetric nature of the model’s boundary conditions reduces the magnitude of response to stratospheric heating. However, this reduction is of comparable size to the variability in the magnitude of response between different ensemble members of the same 5000-day experiment. Investigations into the impact of varying tropospheric jet structure reveal a trend with lower-latitude/narrower jets having a much larger magnitude response to stratospheric heating than higher-latitude/wider jets. The jet structures that respond more strongly to stratospheric heating also exhibit longer time scale variability in their control run simulations, consistent with the idea that a feedback between the eddies and the mean flow is both responsible for the persistence of the control run variability and important in producing the tropospheric response to stratospheric temperature perturbations.

Contribution of apolipoprotein E genotype and docosahexaenoic acid to the LDL-cholesterol response to fish oil

Objectives: To investigate the impact of apolipoprotein E (apoE) genotype on the response of the plasma lipoprotein profile to eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) versus docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) intervention in humans. Methods and results: 38 healthy normolipidaemic males, prospectively recruited on the basis of apoE genotype (n = 20 E3/E3 and n = 18 E3/E4), completed a double-blind placebo-controlled cross-over trial, consisting of 3 × 4 week intervention arms of either control oil, EPA-rich oil (ERO, 3.3 g EPA/day) or DHA-rich oil (DRO, 3.7 g DHA/day) in random order, separated by 10 week wash-out periods. A significant genotype-independent 28% and 19% reduction in plasma triglycerides in response to ERO and DRO was observed. For total cholesterol (TC), no significant treatment effects were evident; however a significant genotype by treatment interaction emerged (P = 0.045), with a differential response to ERO and DRO in E4 carriers. Although the genotype × treatment interaction for LDL-cholesterol (P = 0.089) did not reach significance, within DRO treatment analysis indicated a 10% increase in LDL (P = 0.029) in E4 carriers with a non-significant 4% reduction in E3/E3 individuals. A genotype-independent increase in LDL mass was observed following DRO intervention (P = 0.018). Competitive uptake studies in HepG2 cells using plasma very low density lipoproteins (VLDL) from the human trial, indicated that following DRO treatment, VLDL2 fractions obtained from E3/E4 individuals resulted in a significant 32% (P = 0.002) reduction in LDL uptake relative to the control. Conclusions: High dose DHA supplementation is associated with increases in total cholesterol in E4 carriers, which appears to be due to an increase in LDL-C and may in part negate the cardioprotective action of DHA in this population subgroup.

The climate response to CO2 of the Hadley Centre coupled AOGCM with and without flux adjustment

Coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation models have a tendency to drift away from a realistic climatology. The modelled climate response to an increase of CO2 concentration may be incorrect if the simulation of the current climate has significant errors, so in many models, including ours, the drift is counteracted by applying prescribed fluxes of heat and fresh water at the ocean‐atmosphere interface in addition to the calculated surface exchanges. Since the additional fluxes do not have a physical basis, the use of this technique of “flux adjustment” itself introduces some uncertainty in the simulated response to increased CO2. We find that the global‐average temperature response of our model to CO2 increasing at 1% per year is about 30% less without flux adjustment than with flux adjustment. The geographical patterns of the response are similar, indicating that flux adjustment is not causing any gross distortion. The reduced size of the response is due to more effective vertical transport of heat into the ocean, and a somewhat smaller climate sensitivity. Although the response in both cases lies within the generally accepted range for the climate sensitivity, systematic uncertainties of this size are clearly undesirable, and the best strategy for future development is to improve the climate model in order to reduce the need for flux adjustment.

Genetic predisposition influences plasma lipids of participants on habitual diet, but not the response to reductions in dietary intake of saturated fatty acids

Objective: SNPs identified from genome wide association studies associate with lipid risk markers of cardiovascular disease. This study investigated whether these SNPs altered the plasma lipid response to diet in the ‘RISCK’ study cohort. Methods: Participants (n = 490) from a dietary intervention to lower saturated fat by replacement with carbohydrate or monounsaturated fat, were genotyped for 39 lipid-associated SNPs. The association of each individual SNP, and of the SNPs combined (using genetic predisposition scores), with plasma lipid concentrations was assessed at baseline, and on change in response to 24 weeks on diets. Results: The associations between SNPs and lipid concentrations were directionally consistent with previous findings. The genetic predisposition scores were associated with higher baseline concentrations of plasma total(P = 0.02) and LDL (P = 0.002) cholesterol, triglycerides (P = 0.001) and apolipoprotein B (P = 0.004), and with lower baseline concentrations of HDL cholesterol (P < 0.001) and apolipoprotein A-I (P < 0.001). None of the SNPs showed significant association with the reduction of plasma lipids in response to the dietary interventions and there was no evidence of diet-gene interactions. Conclusion: Results from this exploratory study have shown that increased genetic predisposition was associated with an unfavourable plasma lipid profile at baseline, but did not influence the improvement in lipid profiles by the low-saturated-fat diets.

The temperature response to stratospheric water vapour changes

This study uses an analytical model, based on the cooling-to-space approximation, and a fixed dynamical heating model to investigate the structure of the stratospheric cooling that occurs in response to a uniform increase in stratospheric water vapour (SWV). At all latitudes, the largest cooling occurs in the lower stratosphere and decreases in magnitude with height. The cooling is strongly enhanced in the Extratropics compared to the Tropics. This is markedly different to the case of an increase in CO2, which causes maximum cooling near the stratopause and a small warming in the tropical lower stratosphere. The qualitative differences in the structure of the cooling can be explained by the smaller opacity of water vapour bands in the stratosphere compared to CO2. The small opacity means that the magnitude of the initial heating rate perturbation only decreases by a factor of four between the upper and lower stratosphere for a SWV perturbation. Therefore, to balance the heating rate perturbation, the largest temperature change is required in the lower stratosphere. Increasing the background concentration of SWV causes the water vapour bands to become more opaque. For a SWV perturbation applied to a background SWV concentration ≥30 ppmv, the heating rate perturbation and temperature change structurally resemble those from an increase in CO2. In the Extratropics, the lower height of the tropopause is found to cause the enhancement in the cooling at those latitudes. By controlling the depth of atmosphere which adjusts to the SWV perturbation, the tropopause height affects the net exchange of radiation between the layers in the stratosphere as they cool. The latitudinal gradient in upwelling infrared radiation at the tropopause and variations in the background temperature are found to have only a minor effect on the structure of the stratospheric temperature response to a change in SWV.

The equatorial response to higher latitude forcing

The classic view, following Charney and Webster and Holton, is that significant midlatitude forcing of the Tropics can be expected only in regions with westerly winds in the upper troposphere because it is only in these regions that stationary Rossby waves will be able to propagate toward the equator. Here it is shown that higherlatitude forcing can project directly onto equatorial waves and give a significant tropical response in both easterly and westerly tropical flow. The equatorial response to higher-latitude forcing is considered in the context of a dry atmosphere and a localized higher-latitude forcing with eastward or westward phase speed. Previous ideas of the Doppler shifting of equatorial waves by zonal flows are extended to include consideration of a forcing involving a range of zonal wavenumbers. A Gill-type model suggests that there can be significant forcing of equatorial waves by either vorticity forcing or heating in higher latitudes. In agreement with the theory, the Kelvin wave response to eastward forcing is peaked at high frequencies/short periods but reduces only slowly with decreasing frequency. Primitive-equation experiments confirm the strong equatorial response associated with a deep Kelvin wave for forcing in midlatitudes. The response is strongest in the Eastern Hemisphere with its equatorial, upper-tropospheric easterlies. The possible importance of this equatorial response in the organization of large-scale, deep tropical convection and the initiation of the Madden–Julian oscillation is discussed. The ability of westward forcing in higher latitudes to trigger Rossby–gravity and Rossby waves is found in the primitive-equation model to be significant but rather less robust. These wave signatures are clearest in the lower troposphere. For shorter periods the Rossby–gravity wave dominates, and for upper-tropospheric forcing, downward and eastward wave activity propagation is seen. Upper-tropospheric westerlies are found to enhance the response.