Use of hydroclimatic forecasts for improved water management in central Texas

Accurate seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts based on climate information are critical for optimal management and operation of water resources systems. Considering most water supply systems are multipurpose, operating these systems to meet increasing demand under the growing stresses of climate variability and climate change, population and economic growth, and environmental concerns could be very challenging. This study was to investigate improvement in water resources systems management through the use of seasonal climate forecasts. Hydrological persistence (streamflow and precipitation) and large-scale recurrent oceanic-atmospheric patterns such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the Pacific North American (PNA), and customized sea surface temperature (SST) indices were investigated for their potential to improve streamflow forecast accuracy and increase forecast lead-time in a river basin in central Texas. First, an ordinal polytomous logistic regression approach is proposed as a means of incorporating multiple predictor variables into a probabilistic forecast model. Forecast performance is assessed through a cross-validation procedure, using distributions-oriented metrics, and implications for decision making are discussed. Results indicate that, of the predictors evaluated, only hydrologic persistence and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature patterns associated with ENSO and PDO provide forecasts which are statistically better than climatology. Secondly, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river-reservoir systems. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas. Lastly, a simplified two-stage stochastic economic-optimization model was proposed to investigate improvement in water use efficiency and the potential value of using seasonal forecasts, under the assumption of optimal decision making under uncertainty. Model results demonstrate that incorporating the probabilistic inflow forecasts into the optimization model can provide a significant improvement in seasonal water contract benefits over climatology, with lower average deficits (increased reliability) for a given average contract amount, or improved mean contract benefits for a given level of reliability compared to climatology. The results also illustrate the trade-off between the expected contract amount and reliability, i.e., larger contracts can be signed at greater risk.

MULTIDIMENSIONAL OPTIMAL DROOP CONTROL FOR WIND RESOURCES IN DC MICROGRIDS

Two important and upcoming technologies, microgrids and electricity generation from wind resources, are increasingly being combined. Various control strategies can be implemented, and droop control provides a simple option without requiring communication between microgrid components. Eliminating the single source of potential failure around the communication system is especially important in remote, islanded microgrids, which are considered in this work. However, traditional droop control does not allow the microgrid to utilize much of the power available from the wind. This dissertation presents a novel droop control strategy, which implements a droop surface in higher dimension than the traditional strategy. The droop control relationship then depends on two variables: the dc microgrid bus voltage, and the wind speed at the current time. An approach for optimizing this droop control surface in order to meet a given objective, for example utilizing all of the power available from a wind resource, is proposed and demonstrated. Various cases are used to test the proposed optimal high dimension droop control method, and demonstrate its function. First, the use of linear multidimensional droop control without optimization is demonstrated through simulation. Next, an optimal high dimension droop control surface is implemented with a simple dc microgrid containing two sources and one load. Various cases for changing load and wind speed are investigated using simulation and hardware-in-the-loop techniques. Optimal multidimensional droop control is demonstrated with a wind resource in a full dc microgrid example, containing an energy storage device as well as multiple sources and loads. Finally, the optimal high dimension droop control method is applied with a solar resource, and using a load model developed for a military patrol base application. The operation of the proposed control is again investigated using simulation and hardware-in-the-loop techniques.

Adapting agricultural land management to climate change: a regional multi-objective optimization approach

In several regions of the world, climate change is expected to have severe impacts on agricultural systems. Changes in land management are one way to adapt to future climatic conditions, including land-use changes and local adjustments of agricultural practices. In previous studies, options for adaptation have mostly been explored by testing alternative scenarios. Systematic explorations of land management possibilities using optimization approaches were so far mainly restricted to studies of land and resource management under constant climatic conditions. In this study, we bridge this gap and exploit the benefits of multi-objective regional optimization for identifying optimum land management adaptations to climate change. We design a multi-objective optimization routine that integrates a generic crop model and considers two climate scenarios for 2050 in a meso-scale catchment on the Swiss Central Plateau with already limited water resources. The results indicate that adaptation will be necessary in the study area to cope with a decrease in productivity by 0–10 %, an increase in soil loss by 25–35 %, and an increase in N-leaching by 30–45 %. Adaptation options identified here exhibit conflicts between productivity and environmental goals, but compromises are possible. Necessary management changes include (i) adjustments of crop shares, i.e. increasing the proportion of early harvested winter cereals at the expense of irrigated spring crops, (ii) widespread use of reduced tillage, (iii) allocation of irrigated areas to soils with low water-retention capacity at lower elevations, and (iv) conversion of some pre-alpine grasslands to croplands.

SOMS: SurrOgate MultiStart algorithm for use with nonlinear programming for global optimization

SOMS is a general surrogate-based multistart algorithm, which is used in combination with any local optimizer to find global optima for computationally expensive functions with multiple local minima. SOMS differs from previous multistart methods in that a surrogate approximation is used by the multistart algorithm to help reduce the number of function evaluations necessary to identify the most promising points from which to start each nonlinear programming local search. SOMS’s numerical results are compared with four well-known methods, namely, Multi-Level Single Linkage (MLSL), MATLAB’s MultiStart, MATLAB’s GlobalSearch, and GLOBAL. In addition, we propose a class of wavy test functions that mimic the wavy nature of objective functions arising in many black-box simulations. Extensive comparisons of algorithms on the wavy testfunctions and on earlier standard global-optimization test functions are done for a total of 19 different test problems. The numerical results indicate that SOMS performs favorably in comparison to alternative methods and does especially well on wavy functions when the number of function evaluations allowed is limited.

Kissingen, its sources and resources : with observations on their use and efficacy in the treatment of disease

by A. B. Granville

How to optimize the use of available OCW resources?

Como optimizar el uso de los recursos disponibles

Mapping Genetic Diversity of Cherimoya (Annona cherimola Mill.): Application of Spatial Analysis for Conservation and Use of Plant Genetic Resources.

There is a growing call for inventories that evaluate geographic patterns in diversity of plant genetic resources maintained on farm and in species' natural populations in order to enhance their use and conservation. Such evaluations are relevant for useful tropical and subtropical tree species, as many of these species are still undomesticated, or in incipient stages of domestication and local populations can offer yet-unknown traits of high value to further domestication. For many outcrossing species, such as most trees, inbreeding depression can be an issue, and genetic diversity is important to sustain local production. Diversity is also crucial for species to adapt to environmental changes. This paper explores the possibilities of incorporating molecular marker data into Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to allow visualization and better understanding of spatial patterns of genetic diversity as a key input to optimize conservation and use of plant genetic resources, based on a case study of cherimoya (Annona cherimola Mill.), a Neotropical fruit tree species. We present spatial analyses to (1) improve the understanding of spatial distribution of genetic diversity of cherimoya natural stands and cultivated trees in Ecuador, Bolivia and Peru based on microsatellite molecular markers (SSRs); and (2) formulate optimal conservation strategies by revealing priority areas for in situ conservation, and identifying existing diversity gaps in ex situ collections. We found high levels of allelic richness, locally common alleles and expected heterozygosity in cherimoya's putative centre of origin, southern Ecuador and northern Peru, whereas levels of diversity in southern Peru and especially in Bolivia were significantly lower. The application of GIS on a large microsatellite dataset allows a more detailed prioritization of areas for in situ conservation and targeted collection across the Andean distribution range of cherimoya than previous studies could do, i.e. at province and department level in Ecuador and Peru, respectively.

Proactive and reactive thermal aware optimization techniques to minimize the environmental impact of data centers

Data centers are easily found in every sector of the worldwide economy. They are composed of thousands of servers, serving millions of users globally and 24-7. In the last years, e-Science applications such e-Health or Smart Cities have experienced a significant development. The need to deal efficiently with the computational needs of next-generation applications together with the increasing demand for higher resources in traditional applications has facilitated the rapid proliferation and growing of Data Centers. A drawback to this capacity growth has been the rapid increase of the energy consumption of these facilities. In 2010, data center electricity represented 1.3% of all the electricity use in the world. In year 2012 alone, global data center power demand grep 63% to 38GW. A further rise of 17% to 43GW was estimated in 2013. Moreover, Data Centers are responsible for more than 2% of total carbon dioxide emissions.