942 resultados para Regression To The Mean


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We present a summary of the principal physical and optical properties of aerosol particles using the FAAM BAE-146 instrumented aircraft during ADRIEX between 27 August and 6 September 2004, augmented by sunphotometer, lidar and satellite retrievals. Observations of anthropogenic aerosol, principally from industrial sources, were concentrated over the northern Adriatic Sea and over the Po Valley close to the aerosol sources. An additional flight was also carried out over the Black Sea to compare east and west European pollution. Measurements show the single-scattering albedo of dry aerosol particles to vary considerably between 0.89 and 0.97 at a wavelength of 0.55 μm, with a campaign mean within the polluted lower free troposphere of 0.92. Although aerosol concentrations varied significantly from day to day and during individual days, the shape of the aerosol size distribution was relatively consistent through the experiment, with no detectable change observed over land and over sea. There is evidence to suggest that the pollution aerosol within the marine boundary layer was younger than that in the elevated layer. Trends in the aerosol volume distribution show consistency with multiple-site AERONET radiometric observations. The aerosol optical depths derived from aircraft measurements show a consistent bias to lower values than both the AERONET and lidar ground-based radiometric observations, differences which can be explained by local variations in the aerosol column loading and by some aircraft instrumental artefacts. Retrievals of the aerosol optical depth and fine-mode (<0.5 μm radius) fraction contribution to the optical depth using MODIS data from the Terra and Aqua satellites show a reasonable level of agreement with the AERONET and aircraft measurements.

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The climate over the Arctic has undergone changes in recent decades. In order to evaluate the coupled response of the Arctic system to external and internal forcing, our study focuses on the estimation of regional climate variability and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric and regional ocean circulations. A global ocean–sea ice model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology model. This way of coupling divides the global ocean model setup into two different domains: one coupled, where the ocean and the atmosphere are interacting, and one uncoupled, where the ocean model is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing and runs in a so-called stand-alone mode. Therefore, selecting a specific area for the regional atmosphere implies that the ocean–atmosphere system can develop ‘freely’ in that area, whereas for the rest of the global ocean, the circulation is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing without any feedbacks. Five different coupled setups are chosen for ensemble simulations. The choice of the coupled domains was done to estimate the influences of the Subtropical Atlantic, Eurasian and North Pacific regions on northern North Atlantic and Arctic climate. Our simulations show that the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model is sensitive to the choice of the modelled area. The different model configurations reproduce differently both the mean climate and its variability. Only two out of five model setups were able to reproduce the Arctic climate as observed under recent climate conditions (ERA-40 Reanalysis). Evidence is found that the main source of uncertainty for Arctic climate variability and its predictability is the North Pacific. The prescription of North Pacific conditions in the regional model leads to significant correlation with observations, even if the whole North Atlantic is within the coupled model domain. However, the inclusion of the North Pacific area into the coupled system drastically changes the Arctic climate variability to a point where the Arctic Oscillation becomes an ‘internal mode’ of variability and correlations of year-to-year variability with observational data vanish. In line with previous studies, our simulations provide evidence that Arctic sea ice export is mainly due to ‘internal variability’ within the Arctic region. We conclude that the choice of model domains should be based on physical knowledge of the atmospheric and oceanic processes and not on ‘geographic’ reasons. This is particularly the case for areas like the Arctic, which has very complex feedbacks between components of the regional climate system.

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Single-column models (SCM) are useful test beds for investigating the parameterization schemes of numerical weather prediction and climate models. The usefulness of SCM simulations are limited, however, by the accuracy of the best estimate large-scale observations prescribed. Errors estimating the observations will result in uncertainty in modeled simulations. One method to address the modeled uncertainty is to simulate an ensemble where the ensemble members span observational uncertainty. This study first derives an ensemble of large-scale data for the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) based on an estimate of a possible source of error in the best estimate product. These data are then used to carry out simulations with 11 SCM and two cloud-resolving models (CRM). Best estimate simulations are also performed. All models show that moisture-related variables are close to observations and there are limited differences between the best estimate and ensemble mean values. The models, however, show different sensitivities to changes in the forcing particularly when weakly forced. The ensemble simulations highlight important differences in the surface evaporation term of the moisture budget between the SCM and CRM. Differences are also apparent between the models in the ensemble mean vertical structure of cloud variables, while for each model, cloud properties are relatively insensitive to forcing. The ensemble is further used to investigate cloud variables and precipitation and identifies differences between CRM and SCM particularly for relationships involving ice. This study highlights the additional analysis that can be performed using ensemble simulations and hence enables a more complete model investigation compared to using the more traditional single best estimate simulation only.

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The surface response to 11 year solar cycle variations is investigated by analyzing the long-term mean sea level pressure and sea surface temperature observations for the period 1870–2010. The analysis reveals a statistically significant 11 year solar signal over Europe, and the North Atlantic provided that the data are lagged by a few years. The delayed signal resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) following a solar maximum. The corresponding sea surface temperature response is consistent with this. A similar analysis is performed on long-term climate simulations from a coupled ocean-atmosphere version of the Hadley Centre model that has an extended upper lid so that influences of solar variability via the stratosphere are well resolved. The model reproduces the positive NAO signal over the Atlantic/European sector, but the lag of the surface response is not well reproduced. Possible mechanisms for the lagged nature of the observed response are discussed.

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Pronounced intermodel differences in the projected response of land surface precipitation (LSP) to future anthropogenic forcing remain in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model integrations. A large fraction of the intermodel spread in projected LSP trends is demonstrated here to be associated with systematic differences in simulated sea surface temperature (SST) trends, especially the representation of changes in (i) the interhemispheric SST gradient and (ii) the tropical Pacific SSTs. By contrast, intermodel differences in global mean SST, representative of differing global climate sensitivities, exert limited systematic influence on LSP patterns. These results highlight the importance to regional terrestrial precipitation changes of properly simulating the spatial distribution of large-scale, remote changes as reflected in the SST response to increasing greenhouse gases. Moreover, they provide guidance regarding which region-specific precipitation projections may be potentially better constrained for use in climate change impact assessments.

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This thesis is an empirical-based study of the European Union’s Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and its implications in terms of corporate environmental and financial performance. The novelty of this study includes the extended scope of the data coverage, as most previous studies have examined only the power sector. The use of verified emissions data of ETS-regulated firms as the environmental compliance measure and as the potential differentiating criteria that concern the valuation of EU ETS-exposed firms in the stock market is also an original aspect of this study. The study begins in Chapter 2 by introducing the background information on the emission trading system (ETS), which focuses on (i) the adoption of ETS as an environmental management instrument and (ii) the adoption of ETS by the European Union as one of its central climate policies. Chapter 3 surveys four databases that provide carbon emissions data in order to determine the most suitable source of the data to be used in the later empirical chapters. The first empirical chapter, which is also Chapter 4 of this thesis, investigates the determinants of the emissions compliance performance of the EU ETS-exposed firms through constructing the best possible performance ratio from verified emissions data and self-configuring models for a panel regression analysis. Chapter 5 examines the impacts on the EU ETS-exposed firms in terms of their equity valuation with customised portfolios and multi-factor market models. The research design takes into account the emissions allowance (EUA) price as an additional factor, as it has the most direct association with the EU ETS to control for the exposure. The final empirical Chapter 6 takes the investigation one step further, by specifically testing the degree of ETS exposure facing different sectors with sector-based portfolios and an extended multi-factor market model. The findings from the emissions performance ratio analysis show that the business model of firms significantly influences emissions compliance, as the capital intensity has a positive association with the increasing emissions-to-emissions cap ratio. Furthermore, different sectors show different degrees of sensitivity towards the determining factors. The production factor influences the performance ratio of the Utilities sector, but not the Energy or Materials sectors. The results show that the capital intensity has a more profound influence on the utilities sector than on the materials sector. With regard to the financial performance impact, ETS-exposed firms as aggregate portfolios experienced a substantial underperformance during the 2001–2004 period, but not in the operating period of 2005–2011. The results of the sector-based portfolios show again the differentiating effect of the EU ETS on sectors, as one sector is priced indifferently against its benchmark, three sectors see a constant underperformance, and three sectors have altered outcomes.

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The effect of variations in land cover on mean radiant surface temperature (Tmrt) is explored through a simple scheme developed within the radiation model SOLWEIG. Outgoing longwave radiation is parameterised using surface temperature observations on a grass and an asphalt surface, whereas outgoing shortwave radiation is modelled through variations in albedo for the different surfaces. The influence of surface materials on Tmrt is small compared to the effects of shadowing. Nevertheless, altering ground surface materials could contribute to a reduction on Tmrt to reduce the radiant load during heat-wave episodes in locations where shadowing is not an option. Evaluation of the new scheme suggests that despite its simplicity it can simulate the outgoing fluxes well, especially during sunny conditions. However, it underestimates at night and in shadowed locations. One grass surface used to develop the parameterisation, with very different characteristics compared to an evaluation grass site, caused Tmrt to be underestimated. The implications of using high resolution (e.g. 15 minutes) temporal forcing data under partly cloudy conditions are demonstrated even for fairly proximal sites.

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In the present study, we evaluated the role of glutamatergic mechanisms in the retrotrapezoid nucleus (RTN) in changes of splanchnic sympathetic nerve discharge (sSND) and phrenic nerve discharge (PND) elicited by central and peripheral chemoreceptor activation. Mean arterial pressure (MAP), sSND and PND were recorded in urethane-anaesthetized, vagotomized, sino-aortic denervated and artificially ventilated male Wistar rats. Hypercapnia (10% CO(2)) increased MAP by 32 +/- 4 mmHg, sSND by 104 +/- 4% and PND amplitude by 101 +/- 5%. Responses to hypercapnia were reduced after bilateral injection of the NMDA receptor antagonist D,L-2-amino-5-phosphonovalerate (AP-5; 100mm in 50 nl) in the RTN (MAP increased by 16 +/- 3 mmHg, sSNDby 82 +/- 3% and PND amplitudeby 63 +/- 7%). Bilateral injection of the non-NMDA receptor antagonist 6,7-dinitro-quinoxaline-2,3-dione(DNQX; 100 mm in 50 nl) and the metabotropic receptor antagonist (+/-)-alpha-methyl-4-carboxyphenylglycine (MCPG; 100mm in 50 nl) in the RTN did not affect sympathoexcitatory responses induced by hypercapnia. Injection of DNQX reduced hypercapnia-induced phrenic activation, whereas MCPG did not. In animals with intact carotid chemoreceptors, bilateral injections of AP-5 and DNQX in the RTN reduced increases in MAP, sSND and PND amplitude produced by intravenous injection of NaCN (50 mu g kg(-1)). Injection of MCPG in the RTN did not change responses produced by NaCN. These data indicate that RTN ionotropic glutamatergic receptors are involved in the sympathetic and respiratory responses produced by central and peripheral chemoreceptor activation.

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The relative contribution of the pre- and post-synaptic effects to the neostigmine-induced recovery of neuromuscular transmission blocked by vecuronium was studied. A conjunction of myographical and electrophysiological techniques was employed. The preparation was the sciatic nerve-extensor digitorum longus muscle of the rat, in vitro. The physiological variables recorded were nerve-evoked twitches (generated at 0.1 Hz), tetanic contractions (generated at 50 Hz) and end-plate potentials (epps), generated in trains of 50 Hz. The epps were analyzed in: amplitude of first epp in the train; mean amplitude of the 30th to the 59th epp in the train (epps-plateau); half-decay time of the epp; early tetanic rundown of epps in the train; plateau tetanic rundown of epps in the train; quantal content of the epps and quantal size. In myographical experiments, a concentration of vecuronium was found (0.8 mu m) that affected both twitches and tetanic contractions and a concentration of neostigmine was found (0.048 mu m) that completely restored the twitch affected by vecuronium. The cellular effects of vecuronium and neostigmine, studied alone or in association, in the above-mentioned concentrations, were scrutinized by means of electrophysiological techniques. These showed that vecuronium alone decreased the peak amplitude, the quantal content of epps and the quantal size and reinforced the tetanic rundown of epps. Neostigmine alone increased the peak amplitude, the quantal content and the half-decay time of the epps. When employed in the presence of vecuronium, neostigmine increased both the quantal content of the epps (via a presynaptic effect) and the half-decay time of the epps (via a postsynaptic effect). Seeing the pre- and the post-synaptic effects of neostigmine were of similar magnitude, they permit to conclude that both these effects contributed significantly to the restoration by neostigmine of the neuromuscular transmission blocked by vecuronium.

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We describe in this article the application of a high-density gas aggregation nanoparticle gun to the production and characterization of high anisotropy SmCo nanoparticles. We give a detailed description of the simple but efficient experimental apparatus with a focus on the microscopic processes of the gas aggregation technique. Using high values of gas flux (similar to 45 sccm) we are able to operate in regimes of high collimation of material. In this regime, as we explain in terms of a phenomenological model, the power applied to the sputtering target becomes the main variable to change the size of the clusters. Also presented are the morphological, structural, and magnetic characterizations of SmCo nanoparticles produced using 10 and 50 W of sputtering power. These values resulted in mean sizes of similar to 12 and similar to 20 nm. Significant differences are seen in the structural and magnetic properties of the samples with the 50 W sample showing a largely enhanced crystalline structure and magnetic anisotropy.

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The Corumba Group cropping out in the southern Paraguay Belt in Brazil is one of the most complete Ediacaran sedimentary archives of palaeogeographic climatic biogeochemical and biotic evolution in southwestern Gondwana The unit hosts a rich fossil record including acritarchs vendotaenids (Vendo taenia Eoholynia) soft-bodied metazoans (Corumbella) and skeletal fossils (Cloudina Titanotheca) The Tamengo Formation made up mainly of limestones and marls provides a rich bio- and chemostratigraphic record Several outcrops formerly assigned to the Cuiaba Group are here included in the Tamengo Formation on the basis of lithological and chemostratigraphical criteria High-resolution carbon isotopic analyses are reported for the Tamengo Formation showing (from base to top) (1) a positive delta(13)C excursion to +4 parts per thousand PDB above post-glacial negative values (2) a negative excursion to -3 5 parts per thousand associated with a marked regression and subsequent transgression (3) a positive excursion to +5 5 parts per thousand and (4) a plateau characterized by delta(13)C around +3 parts per thousand A U-Pb SHRIMP zircon age of an ash bed Interbedded in the upper part of the delta(13)C positive plateau yielded 543 +/- 3 Ma which is considered as the depositional age (Babinski et al 2008a) The positive plateau in the upper Tamengo Formation and the preceding positive excursion are ubiquitous features in several successions worldwide including the Nama Group (Namibia) the Dengying Formation (South China) and the Nafun and Ara groups (Oman) This plateau is constrained between 542 and 551 Ma thus consistent with the age of the upper Tamengo Formation The negative excursion of the lower Tamengo Formation may be correlated to the Shuram-Wonoka negative anomaly although delta(13)C values do not fall beyond -3 5 parts per thousand in the Brazilian sections Sedimentary breccias occur just beneath this negative excursion in the lower Tamengo Formation One possible interpretation of the origin of these breccias is a glacioeustatic sea-level fall but a tectonic interpretation cannot be completely ruled out Published by Elsevier B V

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Regression models for the mean quality-adjusted survival time are specified from hazard functions of transitions between two states and the mean quality-adjusted survival time may be a complex function of covariates. We discuss a regression model for the mean quality-adjusted survival (QAS) time based on pseudo-observations, which has the advantage of directly modeling the effect of covariates in the QAS time. Both Monte Carlo Simulations and a real data set are studied. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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In clinical trials, it may be of interest taking into account physical and emotional well-being in addition to survival when comparing treatments. Quality-adjusted survival time has the advantage of incorporating information about both survival time and quality-of-life. In this paper, we discuss the estimation of the expected value of the quality-adjusted survival, based on multistate models for the sojourn times in health states. Semiparametric and parametric (with exponential distribution) approaches are considered. A simulation study is presented to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimator and the jackknife resampling method is used to compute bias and variance of the estimator. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the anti-tumor activity of Amblyomin-X, a serine protease Kunitz-type inhibitor. Amblyomin-X induced tumor mass regression and decreased number of metastatic events in a B16F10 murine melanoma model. Alterations on expression of several genes related to cell cycle were observed when two tumor cell lines were treated with Amblyomin-X. PSMB2, which encodes a proteasome subunit, was differentially expressed, in agreement to inhibition of proteasomal activity in both cell lines. In conclusion, our results indicate that Amblyomin-X selectively acts on tumor cells by inducing apoptotic cell death, possibly by targeting the ubiquitin-proteasome system. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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This research aimed to find out which are the main factors that lead technology startups to fail. The study focused on companies located in the Southeast region of Brazil that operated between 2009 and 2014. In the beginning, a review of the literature was done to have a better understanding of basic concepts of entrepreneurship as well as modern techniques for developing entrepreneurship. Furthermore, an analysis of the entrepreneurial scenario in Brazil, with a focus on the Southeast, was also done. After this phase, the qualitative study began, in which 24 specialists from startups were interviewed and asked about which factors were crucial in leading a technology startup to fail. After analyzing the results, four main factors were identified and these factors were validated through a quantitative survey. A questionnaire was then formulated based on the answers from the respondents and distributed to founders and executives of startups, which both failed and succeeded. The questionnaire was answered by 56 companies and their answers were treated with the factor analysis statistical method to check the validity of the questionnaire. Finally, the logistical regression method was used to know the extent to which the factors led to the startups’ failure. In the end, the results obtained suggest that the most significant factor that leads technology startups in southeastern Brazil to fail are problems with interpersonal relationship between partners or investors.