Assessing moth migration and population structuring in Helicoverpa annigera (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) at the regional scale: Example from the Darling Downs, Australia

Analysis of gene flow and migration of Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) in a major cropping region of Australia identified substantial genetic structuring, migration events, and significant population genotype changes over the 38-mo sample period from November 1999 to January 2003. Five highly variable microsatellite markers were used to analyze 916 individuals from 77 collections across 10 localities in the Darling Downs. The molecular data indicate that in some years (e.g., April 2002-March 2003), low levels of H. armigera migration and high differentiation between populations occurred, whereas in other years (e.g., April 2001-March 2002), there were higher levels of adult moth movement resulting in little local structuring of populations. Analysis of populations in other Australian cropping regions provided insight into the quantity and direction of immigration of H. armigera adults into the Darling Downs growing region of Australia. These data provide evidence adult moth movement differs from season to season, highlighting the importance of studies in groups such as the Lepidoptera extending over consecutive years, because short-term sampling may be misleading when population dynamics and migration change so significantly. This research demonstrates the importance of maintaining a coordinated insecticide resistance management strategy, because in some years H. armigera populations may be independent within a region and thus significantly influenced by local management practices; however, periods with high migration will occur and resistance may rapidly spread.

Life tables of the processionary caterpillar Ochrogaster lunifer Herrich-Schaffer (Lepidoptera : Thaumetopoeidae) at local and regional scales

A major ongoing debate in population ecology has surrounded the causative factors underlying the abundance of phytophagous insects and whether or not these factors limit or regulate herbivore populations. However, it is often difficult to identify mortality agents in census data, and their distribution and relative importance across large spatial scales are rarely understood. Were, we present life tables for egg batches and larval cohorts of the processionary caterpillar Ochrogaster lunifer Herrich-Schaffer, using intensive local sampling combined with extensive regional monitoring to ascertain the relative importance of different mortality factors at different localities. Extinction of entire cohorts (representing the entire reproductive output of one female) at natural localities was high, with 82% of the initial 492 cohorts going extinct. Mortality was highest in the egg and early instar stages due to predation from dermestid beetles, and while different mortality factors (e.g. hatching failure, egg parasitism and failure to establish on the host) were present at many localities, dermestid predation, either directly observed or inferred from indirect evidence, was the dominant mortality factor at 89% of localities surveyed. Predation was significantly higher in plantations than in natural habitats. The second most important mortality factor was resource depletion, with 14 cohorts defoliating their hosts. Egg and larval parasitism were not major mortality agents. A combination of predation and resource depletion consistently accounted for the majority of mortality across localities, suggesting that both factors are important in limiting population abundance. This evidence shows that O. lunifer is not regulated by natural enemies alone, but that resource patches (Acacia trees) ultimately, and frequently, act together to limit population growth.

Dynamics and vertical distribution of a Hrabeiella periglandulata (Annelida) population in South Moravia, Czech Republic

The objective of this work was to evaluate the density, dynamics and vertical distribution of a Hrabeiella periglandulata population in a forest soil at Brno, Czech Republic. From December 2003 to November 2004, two plots covered by mixed stands and two covered by coniferous stands were sampled monthly. Six soil cores per plot were taken down to 15 cm and subdivided into layers, which were subjected to wet funnel extraction. Missing in one of the coniferous stands H. periglandulata was abundant in the mixed stand with the highest soil pH. In this stand, monthly sampling continued until November 2005, with three additional samplings up to January 2007. Mean annual density was 2,672±1,534 individuals m-2. Population dynamics differed from those reported from Germany. Highest densities were reached in early summer, lowest between August and December. Due to aggregated horizontal distribution, differences between monthly values were often nonsignificant. No significant correlation with climatic data was found. Nevertheless, the observed dynamics corresponded to the climatic conditions, showing particularly the negative effect of drought. The population was evenly distributed in the sampled soil profile, only avoiding the organic layer. Except for a locality in Poland, this is the easternmost record of the species.

Population connectivity buffers genetic diversity loss in a seabird

Background Ancient DNA has revolutionized conservation genetic studies as it allows monitoring of the genetic variability of species through time and predicting the impact of ecosystems" threats on future population dynamics and viability. Meanwhile, the consequences of anthropogenic activities and climate change to island faunas, particularly seabirds, remain largely unknown. In this study, we examined temporal changes in the genetic diversity of a threatened seabird, the Cory"s shearwater (Calonectris borealis). Findings We analysed the mitochondrial DNA control region of ancient bone samples from the late-Holocene retrieved from the Canary archipelago (NE Atlantic) together with modern DNA sequences representative of the entire breeding range of the species. Our results show high levels of ancient genetic diversity in the Canaries comparable to that of the extant population. The temporal haplotype network further revealed rare but recurrent long-distance dispersal between ocean basins. The Bayesian demographic analyses reveal both regional and local population size expansion events, and this is in spite of the demographic decline experienced by the species over the last millennia. Conclusions Our findings suggest that population connectivity of the species has acted as a buffer of genetic losses and illustrate the use of ancient DNA to uncover such cryptic genetic events.

Tree population and community dynamics in a Brazilian tropical semideciduous forest

The dynamics of the tree community and 30 tree populations were examined in an area of tropical semideciduous forest located on the margin of the Rio Grande, SE Brazil, based on surveys done in 1990 and 1997 in three 0.18 ha plots. The main purpose was to assess whether variations in dynamics were related to topography and the effects of a catastrophic flood in 1992. Rates of mortality and recruitment of trees and gain and loss of basal area in two topographic sites, lower (flooded) and upper (non-flooded), were obtained. Projected trajectories of mean and accelerated growth in diameter were obtained for each species. In both topographic sites, mortality rates surpassed recruitment rates, gain rates of basal area surpassed loss rates, and size distributions changed, with declining proportions of smaller trees. These overall changes were possibly related to increased underground water supply after the 1992 flood as well as to a c. 250-year-old process of primary succession on abandoned gold mines. Possible effects of the 1992 flood showed up in the higher proportions of dead trees in the flooded sites and faster growth rates in the flood-free sites. Species of different regeneration guilds showed particular trends with respect to their demographic changes and diameter growth patterns. Nevertheless, patterns of population dynamics differed between topographic sites for only two species.

Design, implementation and application of a generic framework for integrated regional land-use modeling

Land use is a crucial link between human activities and the natural environment and one of the main driving forces of global environmental change. Large parts of the terrestrial land surface are used for agriculture, forestry, settlements and infrastructure. Given the importance of land use, it is essential to understand the multitude of influential factors and resulting land use patterns. An essential methodology to study and quantify such interactions is provided by the adoption of land-use models. By the application of land-use models, it is possible to analyze the complex structure of linkages and feedbacks and to also determine the relevance of driving forces. Modeling land use and land use changes has a long-term tradition. In particular on the regional scale, a variety of models for different regions and research questions has been created. Modeling capabilities grow with steady advances in computer technology, which on the one hand are driven by increasing computing power on the other hand by new methods in software development, e.g. object- and component-oriented architectures. In this thesis, SITE (Simulation of Terrestrial Environments), a novel framework for integrated regional sland-use modeling, will be introduced and discussed. Particular features of SITE are the notably extended capability to integrate models and the strict separation of application and implementation. These features enable efficient development, test and usage of integrated land-use models. On its system side, SITE provides generic data structures (grid, grid cells, attributes etc.) and takes over the responsibility for their administration. By means of a scripting language (Python) that has been extended by language features specific for land-use modeling, these data structures can be utilized and manipulated by modeling applications. The scripting language interpreter is embedded in SITE. The integration of sub models can be achieved via the scripting language or by usage of a generic interface provided by SITE. Furthermore, functionalities important for land-use modeling like model calibration, model tests and analysis support of simulation results have been integrated into the generic framework. During the implementation of SITE, specific emphasis was laid on expandability, maintainability and usability. Along with the modeling framework a land use model for the analysis of the stability of tropical rainforest margins was developed in the context of the collaborative research project STORMA (SFB 552). In a research area in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, socio-environmental impacts of land-use changes were examined. SITE was used to simulate land-use dynamics in the historical period of 1981 to 2002. Analogous to that, a scenario that did not consider migration in the population dynamics, was analyzed. For the calculation of crop yields and trace gas emissions, the DAYCENT agro-ecosystem model was integrated. In this case study, it could be shown that land-use changes in the Indonesian research area could mainly be characterized by the expansion of agricultural areas at the expense of natural forest. For this reason, the situation had to be interpreted as unsustainable even though increased agricultural use implied economic improvements and higher farmers' incomes. Due to the importance of model calibration, it was explicitly addressed in the SITE architecture through the introduction of a specific component. The calibration functionality can be used by all SITE applications and enables largely automated model calibration. Calibration in SITE is understood as a process that finds an optimal or at least adequate solution for a set of arbitrarily selectable model parameters with respect to an objective function. In SITE, an objective function typically is a map comparison algorithm capable of comparing a simulation result to a reference map. Several map optimization and map comparison methodologies are available and can be combined. The STORMA land-use model was calibrated using a genetic algorithm for optimization and the figure of merit map comparison measure as objective function. The time period for the calibration ranged from 1981 to 2002. For this period, respective reference land-use maps were compiled. It could be shown, that an efficient automated model calibration with SITE is possible. Nevertheless, the selection of the calibration parameters required detailed knowledge about the underlying land-use model and cannot be automated. In another case study decreases in crop yields and resulting losses in income from coffee cultivation were analyzed and quantified under the assumption of four different deforestation scenarios. For this task, an empirical model, describing the dependence of bee pollination and resulting coffee fruit set from the distance to the closest natural forest, was integrated. Land-use simulations showed, that depending on the magnitude and location of ongoing forest conversion, pollination services are expected to decline continuously. This results in a reduction of coffee yields of up to 18% and a loss of net revenues per hectare of up to 14%. However, the study also showed that ecological and economic values can be preserved if patches of natural vegetation are conservated in the agricultural landscape. -----------------------------------------------------------------------

Front spreading in population dynamic models. Theory and application to the Neolithic transition

This thesis presents population dynamics models that can be applied to predict the rate of spread of the Neolithic transition (change from hunter-gathering to farming economics) across the European continent, which took place about 9000 to 5000 years ago. The first models in this thesis provide predictions at a continental scale. We develop population dynamics models with explicit kernels and apply realistic data. We also derive a new time-delayed reaction-diffusion equation which yields speeds about a 10% slower than previous models. We also deal with a regional variability: the slowdown of the Neolithic front when reaching the North of Europe. We develop simple reaction-diffusion models that can predict the measured speeds in terms of the non-homogeneous distribution of pre-Neolithic (Mesolithic) population in Europe, which were present in higher densities at the North of the continent. Such models can explain the observed speeds.

Tree population and community dynamics in a Brazilian tropical semideciduous forest

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Population, social equity and changing production patterns

Includes bibliography

Montevideo consensus on population and development

Includes bibliography

Draft operational guide for implementation and follow-up of the Montevideo Consensus on Population and Development: second draft

Introduction .-- I. Background .-- II. Frameworks for implementing the regional agenda on population and development .-- III. Making operational the priority measures of the Montevideo Consensus on Population and Development: A. Full integration of population dynamics into sustainable development with gender equality and respect for human rights. B. Rights, needs, responsibilities and the demands of girls, boys, adolescents and youth. C. Ageing, social protection and socioeconomic challenges. D. Universal access to sexual and reproductive health services. E. Gender equality. F. International migration and protection of the human rights of all migrants. G. Territorial inequality, spatial mobility and vulnerability. H. Indigenous peoples: interculturalism and rights. I. Afro-descendants: rights and combating racial discrimination.

How population loss through habitat boundaries determines the dynamics of a predator-prey system

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Dynamics of the Arctic Fox Population on St. Lawrence Island, Bering Sea

English abstract: We hypothesized that the arctic fox, Alopex lagopus (Linnaeus), population on St. Lawrence Island was cyclic and that its fluctuations in size. structure, and productivity were correlated with the relative size of the population of northern voles, Microtus oeconomus Pallas, the primary prey. Based on a nine-year study, we determined that the variations in size of the fox and vole populations were similar, but they both were of low amplitude and not closely correlated. The high pregnancy rate (mean, 86%/yr) and numbers of young conceived (mean, 11.5/pregnancy) did not vary significantly among years, probably because of the consistently abundant and diverse food supply available to the foxes. The age composition of the trappers' catch of foxes each winter also was comparatively stable, but it was closely correlated with the size of the vole population in the previous summer. The survival of the young foxes during the summer probably was dependent on the availability of the voles, The composition of the catch also appeared to be influenced by immigration of faxes from the adjacent continents via the pack ice. French abstract: Nous avons émis I'hypothèse que la population du renard arctique, Alopex lagopus (Linnaeus), sur I'île Saint Lawrence était cyclique el que les fluctuations concernant sa tailIe, sa structure et sa productivité étaient corrélées à la taille relative de la population du campagnol nordique. Microtus oeconomus Pallas, sa principale proie. En nous appuyant sur une étude menée sur neuf ans, nous avons déterminé que les variations dans la taille des populations du renard et du campagnol étaient semblables. mais que toutes deux avaient une faible amplitude et n'étaient pas corrélées de façon étroite. Le taux de grossesse élevé (moyenne 86 p. cent/an) et Ie nombre dc petits conçus (moyenne 11,5/grossesse) ne variaient pas de façon significative au cours des ans, probablement à cause de I'abondance et de la variété de sources de nourriture pour les renards. La composition d'âge des prises des trappeurs était également stable d'un hiver à I'autre, mais elle était corrélée de façon étroite avec la taille de la population dc campagnols au cours de I'été précédent. La survie des renardeaux au cours de I'été dépendait probablement de la disponibilité des campagnols. La composition des prises semblait aussi être influencée par I'immigration des renards venant des terres continentales adjacentes par la voie de la banquise.

Habitat-specific demography and source-sink dynamics in a population of Siberian jays

P>1. There are a number of models describing population structure, many of which have the capacity to incorporate spatial habitat effects. One such model is the source-sink model, that describes a system where some habitats have a natality that is higher than mortality (source) and others have a mortality that exceeds natality (sink). A source can be maintained in the absence of migration, whereas a sink will go extinct. 2. However, the interaction between population dynamics and habitat quality is complex, and concerns have been raised about the validity of published empirical studies addressing source-sink dynamics. In particular, some of these studies fail to provide data on survival, a significant component in disentangling a sink from a low quality source. Moreover, failing to account for a density-dependent increase in mortality, or decrease in fecundity, can result in a territory being falsely assigned as a sink, when in fact, this density-dependent suppression only decreases the population size to a lower level, hence indicating a 'pseudo-sink'. 3. In this study, we investigate a long-term data set for key components of territory-specific demography (mortality and reproduction) and their relationship to habitat characteristics in the territorial, group-living Siberian jay (Perisoreus infaustus). We also assess territory-specific population growth rates (r), to test whether spatial population dynamics are consistent with the ideas of source-sink dynamics. 4. Although average mortality did not differ between sexes, habitat-specific mortality did. Female mortality was higher in older forests, a pattern not observed in males. Male mortality only increased with an increasing amount of open areas. Moreover, reproductive success was higher further away from human settlement, indicating a strong effect of human-associated nest predators. 5. Averaged over all years, 76% of the territories were sources. These territories generally consisted of less open areas, and were located further away from human settlement. 6. The source-sink model provides a tool for modelling demography in distinct habitat patches of different quality, which can aid in identifying key habitats within the landscape, and thus, reduce the risk of implementing unsound management decisions.