Regional flood frequency analysis using kernel- based fuzzy clustering approach

Regionalization approaches are widely used in water resources engineering to identify hydrologically homogeneous groups of watersheds that are referred to as regions. Pooled information from sites (depicting watersheds) in a region forms the basis to estimate quantiles associated with hydrological extreme events at ungauged/sparsely gauged sites in the region. Conventional regionalization approaches can be effective when watersheds (data points) corresponding to different regions can be separated using straight lines or linear planes in the space of watershed related attributes. In this paper, a kernel-based Fuzzy c-means (KFCM) clustering approach is presented for use in situations where such linear separation of regions cannot be accomplished. The approach uses kernel-based functions to map the data points from the attribute space to a higher-dimensional space where they can be separated into regions by linear planes. A procedure to determine optimal number of regions with the KFCM approach is suggested. Further, formulations to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged sites with the approach are developed. Effectiveness of the approach is demonstrated through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments and a case study on watersheds in United States. Comparison of results with those based on conventional Fuzzy c-means clustering, Region-of-influence approach and a prior study indicate that KFCM approach outperforms the other approaches in forming regions that are closer to being statistically homogeneous and in estimating flood quantiles at ungauged sites. Key Points Kernel-based regionalization approach is presented for flood frequency analysis Kernel procedure to estimate flood quantiles at ungauged sites is developed A set of fuzzy regions is delineated in Ohio, USA

Analytical approach to quantile estimation in regional frequency analysis based on fuzzy framework

Regional frequency analysis is widely used for estimating quantiles of hydrological extreme events at sparsely gauged/ungauged target sites in river basins. It involves identification of a region (group of watersheds) resembling watershed of the target site, and use of information pooled from the region to estimate quantile for the target site. In the analysis, watershed of the target site is assumed to completely resemble watersheds in the identified region in terms of mechanism underlying generation of extreme event. In reality, it is rare to find watersheds that completely resemble each other. Fuzzy clustering approach can account for partial resemblance of watersheds and yield region(s) for the target site. Formation of regions and quantile estimation requires discerning information from fuzzy-membership matrix obtained based on the approach. Practitioners often defuzzify the matrix to form disjoint clusters (regions) and use them as the basis for quantile estimation. The defuzzification approach (DFA) results in loss of information discerned on partial resemblance of watersheds. The lost information cannot be utilized in quantile estimation, owing to which the estimates could have significant error. To avert the loss of information, a threshold strategy (TS) was considered in some prior studies. In this study, it is analytically shown that the strategy results in under-prediction of quantiles. To address this, a mathematical approach is proposed in this study and its effectiveness in estimating flood quantiles relative to DFA and TS is demonstrated through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments and case study on Mid-Atlantic water resources region, USA. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A recursive multi-scaling approach to regional flood frequency analysis

Scaling approaches are widely used by hydrologists for Regional Frequency Analysis (RFA) of floods at ungauged/sparsely gauged site(s) in river basins. This paper proposes a Recursive Multi-scaling (RMS) approach to RFA that overcomes limitations of conventional simple- and multi-scaling approaches. The approach involves identification of a separate set of attributes corresponding to each of the sites (being considered in the study area/region) in a recursive manner according to their importance, and utilizing those attributes to construct effective regional regression relationships to estimate statistical raw moments (SMs) of peak flows. The SMs are then utilized to arrive at parameters of flood frequency distribution and quantile estimate(s) corresponding to target return period(s). Effectiveness of the RMS approach in arriving at flood quantile estimates for ungauged sites is demonstrated through leave-one-out cross-validation experiment on watersheds in Indiana State, USA. Results indicate that the approach outperforms index-flood based Region-of-Influence approach, simple- and multi-scaling approaches and a multiple linear regression method. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the Index-Flood Approach Related Regional Frequency Analysis Procedures

Index-flood related regional frequency analysis (RFA) procedures are in use by hydrologists to estimate design quantiles of hydrological extreme events at data sparse/ungauged locations in river basins. There is a dearth of attempts to establish which among those procedures is better for RFA in the L-moment framework. This paper evaluates the performance of the conventional index flood (CIF), the logarithmic index flood (LIF), and two variants of the population index flood (PIF) procedures in estimating flood quantiles for ungauged locations by Monte Carlo simulation experiments and a case study on watersheds in Indiana in the U.S. To evaluate the PIF procedure, L-moment formulations are developed for implementing the procedure in situations where the regional frequency distribution (RFD) is the generalized logistic (GLO), generalized Pareto (GPA), generalized normal (GNO) or Pearson type III (PE3), as those formulations are unavailable. Results indicate that one of the variants of the PIF procedure, which utilizes the regional information on the first two L-moments is more effective than the CIF and LIF procedures. The improvement in quantile estimation using the variant of PIF procedure as compared with the CIF procedure is significant when the RFD is a generalized extreme value, GLO, GNO, or PE3, and marginal when it is GPA. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.

A quantitative analysis of the phytoplankton of the Gulf of Panama: I. Results of the regional phytoplankton surveys during July and November 1957 and March 1958

ENGLISH: 1. Quantitative phytoplankton samples were collected by the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission at the surface and ten meters in the Gulf of Panama, as follows: a) 18-21 March, 1958 (31 stations)-during the height of the upwelling season, b) 10-12 July, 1957 (10 stations)-during the transition to the rainy season at a time when mild upwelling winds reappear, c) 7-8 November, 1957 (15 stations)-during the height of the rainy season. 2. Maximum phytoplankton populations occurred during the upwelling season, followed by a considerable decline during July, and a further Subsidence during November. 3. A remarkable regional uniformity in species composition was observed during the surveys despite regional differences in growth conditions. Diatoms overwhelmingly dominated the communities. 4. During all surveys, the innermost regions, generally north of 8°30'N, were the most productive. The least productive areas were in the offing of San Miguel Bay and Parita Bay, suggesting that nutrient accretion via runoff is inadequate to sustain sizeable autotrophic plant populations in those regions. 5. During all surveys, phytoplankton growth appeared to be limited by nutrient availability. 6. During all surveys, phytoplankton growth appeared to be related to depth of the water column. 7. Although below average rainfall contributed to unusually favorable growth conditions (reduced stability, increased transparency and, presumably, nutrient reserves) during the November survey relative to November 1955 and 1956 at 8°45'N, 79°23'W, the anticipated heightened phytoplankton response was not observed. 8. During the November survey, the local diatom responses and their regional fluctuations could be satisfactorily related to the accompanying surface salinity conditions. However, this correspondence is undoubtedly attributable to factors associated with the observed salinity levels, probably nutrients, rather than salinity directly. 9. Unusually warm conditions occurred during the March survey, attributable to considerably weaker upwelling winds than normally occurring then, which contributed to a considerably lower standing crop and a retardation in succession of three to five weeks relative to that observed during 1955-1957 at 8°45'N, 79°23'W in the Gulf of Panama. 10. During the March survey, a well defined inverse relationship existed between mean temperature and mean diatom abundance in the upper ten meters, and between transparency and mean diatom abundance. A direct relationship occurred between surface salinity and mean diatom abundance in the upper ten meters. These relationships are interpreted to indicate that diatom abundance primarily reflected the nutrient concentrations associated with a given upwelling intensity, rather than describing casual relationships. 11. The survey results indicate that the phytoplankton dynamics observed at 8°45'N, 79°23'W from November, 1954 through May, 1957 are generally representative of the Gulf of Panama. 12. The following new forms, to be described in a later publication, were observed during the surveys: Actinoptychus undulatus f. catenata n.f., Asterionella japonica f. tropicum n.f., Leptocylindrus maximus n. sp., Skeletonema costatum f. tropicum n.f. SPANISH: 1. La Comisión Interamericana del Atun Tropical recolectó en el Golfo de Panama muestras cuantitativas de fitoplancton en la superficie y a los diez metros, como sigue: a) Del 18 al 21 de marzo de 1958 (31 estaciones)-durante el maximum de la estación de afloramiento. b) Del 10 al 12 de julio de 1957 (10 estaciones)-durante la epóca de transición a la estación lluviosa cuando reaparecen los vientos ligeros que causan el afloramiento. c) Del 7 al 8 de noviembre de 1957 (15 estaciones)-durante el maximum de la estación lluviosa. 2. Las poblaciones maximas de fitoplancton aparecieron durante la estación de afloramiento, seguido por una considerable disminución durante el mes de julio y una calma durante noviembre. 3. Durante la investigación se observó una remarcable uniformidad regional en la composición de las especies a pesar de las diferencias regionales en las condiciones de crecimiento. Las diatomeas predominaban en gran numero en las comunidades. 4. Durante todas las investigaciones, las regiones mas cerca de la costa, generalmente al norte de los 8°30'N, eran las mas productivas. Las areas menos productivas fueron las mar afuera de las Bahias de San Miguel y Parita, lo que sugiere que el aumento en las sales nutritivas causado por las escorrentias es inadecuado para sostener poblaciones grandes de plantas autotróficas en estas regiones. 5. Durante todas las investigaciones, el crecimiento del fitoplancton parecio estar limitado por la disponibilidad de las. sales nutritivas. 6. Durante todas las investigaciones el crecimiento del fitoplancton parecio estar relacionado con la profundidad de la columna de agua. 7. Aunque las precipitacion por debajo del promedio normal contribuyo a condiciones desusadamente favorables de crecimiento (estabilidad reducida, aumento de la transparencia y, presumiblemente, de la reserva de sales nutritivas) durante la investigación de noviembre en relación a noviembre de 1955 y de 1956 en los 8°45'N, 79°23'W, no se observo-la alta reacción de fitoplancton que se esperaba. 8. Durante la investigación de noviembre, las reacciones locales de las diatomeas y sus fluctuaciones regionales pudieron relacionarse en forma satisfactoria con condiciones asociadas con la salinidad de la superficie. Sin embargo, esta correspondencia puede atribuirse sin duda a factores asociados con los niveles observados de salinidad, probablemente con las sales nutritivas, en lugar de directamente con la salinidad. 9. Condiciones calurosas no comunes ocurrieron durante la investigación de marzo, las que pueden atribuirse a que los vientos que ocasionan el afloramiento fueran mas debiles que los normales, lo que contribuyó a que la cosecha estable fuera considerablemente mas baja y a la demora de tres a cinco semanas en la sucecion relativa a la que se observó durante 1955-1957 en los 8°45'N, 8°23'W, en el Golfo de Panama. 10. Durante la investigación de marzo, existió una relación inversa bien definida entre la temperatura y la abundancia media de las diatomeas en los diez metros superiores, y entre la transparencia y la abundancia media de las diatomeas. Una relación directa ocurrio entre la salinidad de superficie y la abundancia media de las diatomeas en los diez metros superiores. Estas relaciones se interpretan como indicadoras de que la abundancia de diatomeas refleja primeramente las concentraciones de las sales nutritivas asociadas con una intensidad de afloramiento dada, en lugar de describir relaciones causales. 11. Los resultados de la investigacion indican que la dinamica del fitoplancton observada en los 8°45'N, 79°23'W, desde noviembre de 1954 a mayo de 1957, es generalmente representativa del Golfo de Panama. 12. Durante las investigaciones se observaron las siguientes formas nuevas, las que seran descritas en una publicación posterior: Actinoptychus undulatus f. catenata n.f., Asterionella japonica f. tropicum n.f., Leptocylindrus maximus n. sp., Skeletonema costatum f. tropicum n.f.

NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (C-CAP): Guidance for Regional Implementation

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The Coastal Change Analysis Programl (C-CAP) is developing a nationally standardized database on landcover and habitat change in the coastal regions of the United States. C-CAP is part of the Estuarine Habitat Program (EHP) of NOAA's Coastal Ocean Program (COP). C-CAP inventories coastal submersed habitats, wetland habitats, and adjacent uplands and monitors changes in these habitats on a one- to five-year cycle. This type of information and frequency of detection are required to improve scientific understanding of the linkages of coastal and submersed wetland habitats with adjacent uplands and with the distribution, abundance, and health of living marine resources. The monitoring cycle will vary according to the rate and magnitude of change in each geographic region. Satellite imagery (primarily Landsat Thematic Mapper), aerial photography, and field data are interpreted, classified, analyzed, and integrated with other digital data in a geographic information system (GIS). The resulting landcover change databases are disseminated in digital form for use by anyone wishing to conduct geographic analysis in the completed regions. C-CAP spatial information on coastal change will be input to EHP conceptual and predictive models to support coastal resource policy planning and analysis. CCAP products will include 1) spatially registered digital databases and images, 2) tabular summaries by state, county, and hydrologic unit, and 3) documentation. Aggregations to larger areas (representing habitats, wildlife refuges, or management districts) will be provided on a case-by-case basis. Ongoing C-CAP research will continue to explore techniques for remote determination of biomass, productivity, and functional status of wetlands and will evaluate new technologies (e.g. remote sensor systems, global positioning systems, image processing algorithms) as they become available. Selected hardcopy land-cover change maps will be produced at local (1:24,000) to regional scales (1:500,000) for distribution. Digital land-cover change data will be provided to users for the cost of reproduction. Much of the guidance contained in this document was developed through a series of professional workshops and interagency meetings that focused on a) coastal wetlands and uplands; b) coastal submersed habitat including aquatic beds; c) user needs; d) regional issues; e) classification schemes; f) change detection techniques; and g) data quality. Invited participants included technical and regional experts and representatives of key State and Federal organizations. Coastal habitat managers and researchers were given an opportunity for review and comment. This document summarizes C-CAP protocols and procedures that are to be used by scientists throughout the United States to develop consistent and reliable coastal change information for input to the C-CAP nationwide database. It also provides useful guidelines for contributors working on related projects. It is considered a working document subject to periodic review and revision.(PDF file contains 104 pages.)

Regional IAM: analysis of risk-adjusted costs and benefits of climate policies

23 p.

Temperature variation through 2000 years in China: An uncertainty analysis of reconstruction and regional difference

Chinese Academy of Sciences [KZCX2-YW-315, KZCX2-YW-Q1-01]; National Natural Science Foundation of China [40625002, 90502009, 200905006]; Office of Science (BER), U. S. Department of Energy ; EU/FP7 [212250]

Euro-Commentary : Scenario Analysis and Regional Economic Development: The Case of Mid Wales

Fuller-Love, Nerys, et al., 'Euro-Commentary : Scenario Analysis and Regional Economic Development: The Case of Mid Wales', European Urban and Regional Studies (2006) 13(2) pp.143-149 RAE2008

Compilation and analysis of integrated regional input-output tables for NUTS 2 regions in Ireland

In 1966, Roy Geary, Director of the ESRI, noted “the absence of any kind of import and export statistics for regions is a grave lacuna” and further noted that if regional analyses were to be developed then regional Input-Output Tables must be put on the “regular statistical assembly line”. Forty-five years later, the lacuna lamented by Geary still exists and remains the most significant challenge to the construction of regional Input-Output Tables in Ireland. The continued paucity of sufficient regional data to compile effective regional Supply and Use and Input-Output Tables has retarded the capacity to construct sound regional economic models and provide a robust evidence base with which to formulate and assess regional policy. This study makes a first step towards addressing this gap by presenting the first set of fully integrated, symmetric, Supply and Use and domestic Input-Output Tables compiled for the NUTS 2 regions in Ireland: The Border, Midland and Western region and the Southern & Eastern region. These tables are general purpose in nature and are consistent fully with the official national Supply & Use and Input-Output Tables, and the regional accounts. The tables are constructed using a survey-based or bottom-up approach rather than employing modelling techniques, yielding more robust and credible tables. These tables are used to present a descriptive statistical analysis of the two administrative NUTS 2 regions in Ireland, drawing particular attention to the underlying structural differences of regional trade balances and composition of Gross Value Added in those regions. By deriving regional employment multipliers, Domestic Demand Employment matrices are constructed to quantify and illustrate the supply chain impact on employment. In the final part of the study, the predictive capability of the Input-Output framework is tested over two time periods. For both periods, the static Leontief production function assumptions are relaxed to allow for labour productivity. Comparative results from this experiment are presented.

Biogeographic analysis of the woody plants of the Southern Appalachians: Implications for the origins of a regional flora.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: We investigated the origins of 252 Southern Appalachian woody species representing 158 clades to analyze larger patterns of biogeographic connectivity around the northern hemisphere. We tested biogeographic hypotheses regarding the timing of species disjunctions to eastern Asia and among areas of North America. METHODS: We delimited species into biogeographically informative clades, compiled sister-area data, and generated graphic representations of area connections across clades. We calculated taxon diversity within clades and plotted divergence times. KEY RESULTS: Of the total taxon diversity, 45% were distributed among 25 North American endemic clades. Sister taxa within eastern North America and eastern Asia were proportionally equal in frequency, accounting for over 50% of the sister-area connections. At increasing phylogenetic depth, connections to the Old World dominated. Divergence times for 65 clades with intercontinental disjunctions were continuous, whereas 11 intracontinental disjunctions to western North America and nine to eastern Mexico were temporally congruent. CONCLUSIONS: Over one third of the clades have likely undergone speciation within the region of eastern North America. The biogeographic pattern for the region is asymmetric, consisting of mostly mixed-aged, low-diversity clades connecting to the Old World, and a minority of New World clades. Divergence time data suggest that climate change in the Late Miocene to Early Pliocene generated disjunct patterns within North America. Continuous splitting times during the last 45 million years support the hypothesis that widespread distributions formed repeatedly during favorable periods, with serial cooling trends producing pseudocongruent area disjunctions between eastern North America and eastern Asia.

Potential impacts of climate change on the primary production of regional seas: A comparative analysis of five European seas

Regional seas are potentially highly vulnerable to climate change, yet are the most directly societally important regions of the marine environment. The combination of widely varying conditions of mixing, forcing, geography (coastline and bathymetry) and exposure to the open-ocean makes these seas subject to a wide range of physical processes that mediates how large scale climate change impacts on these seas’ ecosystems. In this paper we explore the response of five regional sea areas to potential future climate change, acting via atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial vectors. These include the Barents Sea, Black Sea, Baltic Sea, North Sea, Celtic Seas, and are contrasted with a region of the Northeast Atlantic. Our aim is to elucidate the controlling dynamical processes and how these vary between and within these seas. We focus on primary production and consider the potential climatic impacts on: long term changes in elemental budgets, seasonal and mesoscale processes that control phytoplankton’s exposure to light and nutrients, and briefly direct temperature response. We draw examples from the MEECE FP7 project and five regional model systems each using a common global Earth System Model as forcing. We consider a common analysis approach, and additional sensitivity experiments. Comparing projections for the end of the 21st century with mean present day conditions, these simulations generally show an increase in seasonal and permanent stratification (where present). However, the first order (low- and mid-latitude) effect in the open ocean projections of increased permanent stratification leading to reduced nutrient levels, and so to reduced primary production, is largely absent, except in the NE Atlantic. Even in the two highly stratified, deep water seas we consider (Black and Baltic Seas) the increase in stratification is not seen as a first order control on primary production. Instead, results show a highly heterogeneous picture of positive and negative change arising from complex combinations of multiple physical drivers, including changes in mixing, circulation and temperature, which act both locally and non-locally through advection.

Higher incidence of childhood-onset type 1 diabetes mellitus in remote areas: a UK regional small-area analysis

Aims/hypothesis: We investigated the association between the incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus and remoteness (a proxy measure for exposure to infections) using recently developed techniques for statistical analysis of small-area data.

Subjects, materials and methods: New cases in children aged 0 to 14 years in Northern Ireland were prospectively registered from 1989 to 2003. Ecological analysis was conducted using small geographical units (582 electoral wards) and area characteristics including remoteness, deprivation and child population density. Analysis was conducted using Poisson regression models and Bayesian
hierarchical models to allow for spatially correlated risks that were potentially caused by unmeasured explanatory variables.

Results: In Northern Ireland between 1989 and 2003, there were 1,433 new cases of type 1 diabetes, giving a directly standardised incidence rate of 24.7 per 100,000 personyears. Areas in the most remote fifth of all areas had a significantly (p=0.0006) higher incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus (incidence rate ratio=1.27 [95% CI 1.07, 1.50]) than those in the most accessible fifth of all areas. There was also a higher incidence rate in areas that were less deprived (p<0.0001) and less densely populated (p=0.002). After adjustment for deprivation and additional adjustment for child population density the association between diabetes and remoteness remained significant (p=0.01 and p=0.03, respectively).

Conclusions/interpretation: In Northern Ireland, there is evidence that remote areas experience higher rates of type 1 diabetes mellitus. This could reflect a reduced or delayed exposure to infections, particularly early in life, in these areas.