Fusion of Static and Temporal Information for Threat Evaluation in Sensor Networks

In many CCTV and sensor network based intelligent surveillance systems, a number of attributes or criteria are used to individually evaluate the degree of potential threat of a suspect. The outcomes for these attributes are in general from analytical algorithms where data are often pervaded with uncertainty and incompleteness. As a result, such individual threat evaluations are often inconsistent, and individual evaluations can change as time elapses. Therefore, integrating heterogeneous threat evaluations with temporal influence to obtain a better overall evaluation is a challenging issue. So far, this issue has rarely be considered by existing event reasoning frameworks under uncertainty in sensor network based surveillance. In this paper, we first propose a weighted aggregation operator based on a set of principles that constraints the fusion of individual threat evaluations. Then, we propose a method to integrate the temporal influence on threat evaluation changes. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of our system with a decision support event modeling framework using an airport security surveillance scenario.

Ecological communities are vulnerable to realistic extinction sequences

Loss of species will directly change the structure and potentially the dynamics of ecological communities, which in turn may lead to additional species loss (secondary extinctions) due to direct and/or indirect effects (e.g. loss of resources or altered population dynamics). Furthermore, the vulnerability of food webs to repeated species loss is expected to be affected by food web topology, species interactions, as well as the order in which species go extinct. Species traits such as body size, abundance and connectivity might determine a species' vulnerability to extinction and, thus, the order in which species go primarily extinct. Yet, the sequence of primary extinctions, and their effects on the vulnerability of food webs to secondary extinctions, when species abundances are allowed to respond dynamically, has only recently become the focus of attention. Here, we analyse and compare topological and dynamical robustness to secondary extinctions of model food webs, in the face of 34 extinction sequences based on species traits. Although secondary extinctions are frequent in the dynamical approach and rare in the topological approach, topological and dynamical robustness tends to be correlated for many bottom-up directed, but not for top-down directed deletion sequences. Furthermore, removing species based on traits that are strongly positively correlated to the trophic position of species (such as large body size, low abundance, high net effect) is, under the dynamical approach, found to be as destructive as removing primary producers. Such top-down oriented removal of species are often considered to correspond to realistic extinction scenarios, but earlier studies, based on topological approaches, have found such extinction sequences to have only moderate effects on the remaining community. Thus, our result suggests that the structure of ecological communities, and therefore the integrity of important ecosystem processes could be more vulnerable to realistic extinction sequences than previously believed.

Realistic evaluation of EWS and ALERT: factors enabling and constraining implementation.

Realistic Evaluation of EWS and ALERT: factors enabling and constraining implementation Background The implementation of EWS and ALERT in practice is essential to the success of Rapid Response Systems but is dependent upon nurses utilising EWS protocols and applying ALERT best practice guidelines. To date there is limited evidence on the effectiveness of EWS or ALERT as research has primarily focused on measuring patient outcomes (cardiac arrests, ICU admissions) following the implementation of a Rapid Response Team. Complex interventions in healthcare aimed at changing service delivery and related behaviour of health professionals require a different research approach to evaluate the evidence. To understand how and why EWS and ALERT work, or might not work, research needs to consider the social, cultural and organisational influences that will impact on successful implementation in practice. This requires a research approach that considers both the processes and outcomes of complex interventions, such as EWS and ALERT, implemented in practice. Realistic Evaluation is such an approach and was used to explain the factors that enable and constrain the implementation of EWS and ALERT in practice [1]. Aim The aim of this study was to evaluate factors that enabled and constrained the implementation and service delivery of early warnings systems (EWS) and ALERT in practice in order to provide direction for enabling their success and sustainability. Methods The research design was a multiple case study approach of four wards in two hospitals in Northern Ireland. It followed the principles of realist evaluation research which allowed empirical data to be gathered to test and refine RRS programme theory. This approach used a variety of mixed methods to test the programme theories including individual and focus group interviews, observation and documentary analysis in a two stage process. A purposive sample of 75 key informants participated in individual and focus group interviews. Observation and documentary analysis of EWS compliance data and ALERT training records provided further evidence to support or refute the interview findings. Data was analysed using NVIVO8 to categorise interview findings and SPSS for ALERT documentary data. These findings were further synthesised by undertaking a within and cross case comparison to explain the factors enabling and constraining EWS and ALERT. Results A cross case analysis highlighted similarities, differences and factors enabling or constraining successful implementation across the case study sites. Findings showed that personal (confidence; clinical judgement; personality), social (ward leadership; communication), organisational (workload and staffing issues; pressure from managers to complete EWS audit and targets), educational (constraints on training; no clinical educator on ward) and cultural (routine task delegated) influences impact on EWS and acute care training outcomes. There were also differences noted between medical and surgical wards across both case sites. Conclusions Realist Evaluation allows refinement and development of the RRS programme theory to explain the realities of practice. These refined RRS programme theories are capable of informing the planning of future service provision and provide direction for enabling their success and sustainability. References: 1. McGaughey J, Blackwood B, O’Halloran P, Trinder T. J. & Porter S. (2010) A realistic evaluation of Track and Trigger systems and acute care training for early recognition and management of deteriorating ward–based patients. Journal of Advanced Nursing 66 (4), 923-932. Type of submission: Concurrent session Source of funding: Sandra Ryan Fellowship funded by the School of Nursing & Midwifery, Queen’s University of Belfast

A realistic evaluation of track and trigger systems and acute care training for early recognition and treatment of deteriorating ward-based patients: research protocol.

Aim The aim of the study is to evaluate factors that enable or constrain the implementation and service delivery of early warnings systems or acute care training in practice. Background To date there is limited evidence to support the effectiveness of acute care initiatives (early warning systems, acute care training, outreach) in reducing the number of adverse events (cardiac arrest, death, unanticipated Intensive Care admission) through increased recognition and management of deteriorating ward based patients in hospital [1-3]. The reasons posited are that previous research primarily focused on measuring patient outcomes following the implementation of an intervention or programme without considering the social factors (the organisation, the people, external influences) which may have affected the process of implementation and hence measured end-points. Further research which considers the social processes is required in order to understand why a programme works, or does not work, in particular circumstances [4]. Method The design is a multiple case study approach of four general wards in two acute hospitals where Early Warning Systems (EWS) and Acute Life-threatening Events Recognition and Treatment (ALERT) course have been implemented. Various methods are being used to collect data about individual capacities, interpersonal relationships and institutional balance and infrastructures in order to understand the intended and unintended process outcomes of implementing EWS and ALERT in practice. This information will be gathered from individual and focus group interviews with key participants (ALERT facilitators, nursing and medical ALERT instructors, ward managers, doctors, ward nurses and health care assistants from each hospital); non-participant observation of ward organisation and structure; audit of patients' EWS charts and audit of the medical notes of patients who deteriorated during the study period to ascertain whether ALERT principles were followed. Discussion & progress to date This study commenced in January 2007. Ethical approval has been granted and data collection is ongoing with interviews being conducted with key stakeholders. The findings from this study will provide evidence for policy-makers to make informed decisions regarding the direction for strategic and service planning of acute care services to improve the level of care provided to acutely ill patients in hospital. References 1. Esmonde L, McDonnell A, Ball C, Waskett C, Morgan R, Rashidain A et al. Investigating the effectiveness of Critical Care Outreach Services: A systematic review. Intensive Care Medicine 2006; 32: 1713-1721 2. McGaughey J, Alderdice F, Fowler R, Kapila A, Mayhew A, Moutray M. Outreach and Early Warning Systems for the prevention of Intensive Care admission and death of critically ill patients on general hospital wards. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2007, Issue 3. www.thecochranelibrary.com 3. Winters BD, Pham JC, Hunt EA, Guallar E, Berenholtz S, Pronovost PJ (2007) Rapid Response Systems: A systematic review. Critical Care Medicine 2007; 35 (5): 1238-43 4. Pawson R and Tilley N. Realistic Evaluation. London; Sage: 1997

A realistic evaluation of Early Warning Systems and acute care training in Northern Ireland: findings and recommendations

Statement of purpose The purpose of this concurrent session is to present the main findings and recommendations from a five year study evaluating the implementation of Early Warning Systems (EWS) and the Acute Life-threatening Events: Recognition and Treatment (ALERT) course in Northern Ireland. The presentation will provide delegates with an understanding of those factors that enable and constrain successful implementation of EWS and ALERT in practice in order to provide an impetus for change. Methods The research design was a multiple case study approach of four wards in two hospitals in Northern Ireland. It followed the principles of realist evaluation research which allowed empirical data to be gathered to test and refine RRS programme theory [1]. The stages included identifying the programme theories underpinning EWS and ALERT, generating hypotheses, gathering empirical evidence and refining the programme theories. This approach used a variety of mixed methods including individual and focus group interviews, observation and documentary analysis of EWS compliance data and ALERT training records. A within and across case comparison facilitated the development of mid-range theories from the research evidence. Results The official RRS theories developed from the realist synthesis were critically evaluated and compared with the study findings to develop a mid-range theory to explain what works, for whom in what circumstances. The findings of what works suggests that clinical experience, established working relationships, flexible implementation of protocols, ongoing experiential learning, empowerment and pre-emptive management are key to the success of EWS and ALERT implementation. Each concept is presented as ‘context, mechanism and outcome configurations’ to provide an understanding of how the context impacts on individual reasoning or behaviour to produce certain outcomes. Conclusion These findings highlight the combination of factors that can improve the implementation and sustainability of EWS and ALERT and in light of this evidence several recommendations are made to provide policymakers with guidance and direction for future policy development. References: 1. Pawson R and Tilley N. (1997) Realistic Evaluation. Sage Publications; London Type of submission: Concurrent session Source of funding: Sandra Ryan Fellowship funded by the School of Nursing & Midwifery, Queen’s University of Belfast

Impact of biodiversity loss on production in complex marine food webs mitigated by prey-release

Public concern over biodiversity loss is often rationalized as a threat to ecosystem functioning, but biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) relations are hard to empirically quantify at large scales. We use a realistic marine food-web model, resolving species over five trophic levels, to study how total fish production changes with species richness. This complex model predicts that BEF relations, on average, follow simple Michaelis-Menten curves when species are randomly deleted. These are shaped mainly by release of fish from predation, rather than the release from competition expected from simpler communities. Ordering species deletions by decreasing body mass or trophic level, representing 'fishing down the food web', accentuates prey-release effects and results in unimodal relationships. In contrast, simultaneous unselective harvesting diminishes these effects and produces an almost linear BEF relation, with maximum multispecies fisheries yield at approximate to 40% of initial species richness. These findings have important implications for the valuation of marine biodiversity.

Generating Realistic Labelled, Weighted Random Graphs

Generative algorithms for random graphs have yielded insights into the structure and evolution of real-world networks. Most networks exhibit a well-known set of properties, such as heavy-tailed degree distributions, clustering and community formation. Usually, random graph models consider only structural information, but many real-world networks also have labelled vertices and weighted edges. In this paper, we present a generative model for random graphs with discrete vertex labels and numeric edge weights. The weights are represented as a set of Beta Mixture Models (BMMs) with an arbitrary number of mixtures, which are learned from real-world networks. We propose a Bayesian Variational Inference (VI) approach, which yields an accurate estimation while keeping computation times tractable. We compare our approach to state-of-the-art random labelled graph generators and an earlier approach based on Gaussian Mixture Models (GMMs). Our results allow us to draw conclusions about the contribution of vertex labels and edge weights to graph structure.

Nonequilibrium processes from generalized Langevin equations: Realistic nanoscale systems connected to two thermal baths

We extend the generalized Langevin equation (GLE) method [L. Stella, C. D. Lorenz, and L. Kantorovich, Phys. Rev. B 89, 134303 (2014)] to model a central classical region connected to two realistic thermal baths at two different temperatures. In such nonequilibrium conditions a heat flow is established, via the central system, in between the two baths. The GLE-2B (GLE two baths) scheme permits us to have a realistic description of both the dissipative central system and its surrounding baths. Following the original GLE approach, the extended Langevin dynamics scheme is modified to take into account two sets of auxiliary degrees of freedom corresponding to the mapping of the vibrational properties of each bath. These auxiliary variables are then used to solve the non-Markovian dissipative dynamics of the central region. The resulting algorithm is used to study a model of a short Al nanowire connected to two baths. The results of the simulations using the GLE-2B approach are compared to the results of other simulations that were carried out using standard thermostatting approaches (based on Markovian Langevin and Nosé-Hoover thermostats). We concentrate on the steady-state regime and study the establishment of a local temperature profile within the system. The conditions for obtaining a flat profile or a temperature gradient are examined in detail, in agreement with earlier studies. The results show that the GLE-2B approach is able to treat, within a single scheme, two widely different thermal transport regimes, i.e., ballistic systems, with no temperature gradient, and diffusive systems with a temperature gradient.

Pine wilt disease: a worldwide threat to forest ecosystems

The pinewood nematode (PWN), Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, the causal agent of pine wilt disease (PWD), is a serious pest and pathogen of forest tree species, in particular among the genus Pinus. It was first reported from Japan in the beginning of the XXth century, where it became the major ecological catastrophe of pine forests, with losses reaching over 2 million m3/ year in the 1980s. It has since then spread to other Asian countries such as China, Taiwan and Korea, causing serious losses and economic damage. In 1999, the PWN was first detected in the European Union (EU), in Portugal, and immmediately prompted several government (national and EU) actions to assess the extent of the nematode’s presence, and to contain B. xylophilus and its insect vector (Monochamus galloprovincialis) to an area with a 30km radius in the Setúbal Peninsula, 20 km south of Lisbon. International wood trade, with its political as well as economic ramifications, has been seriously jeopardized. The origin of the population of PWN found in Portugal remains elusive. Several hypotheses may be considered regarding pathway analysis, basically from two general origins: North America or the Far East (Japan or China). World trade of wood products such as timber, wooden crates, palettes, etc… play an important role in the potential dissemination of the pinewood nematode. In fact, human activities involving the movement of wood products may be considered the single most important factor in spreading of the PWN. Despite the dedicated and concerted actions of government agencies, this disease continues to spread. Very recently (2006), in Portugal, forestry and phytosanitary authorities (DGRF and DGPC) have announced a new strategy for the control and ultimately the erradication of the nematode, under the coordination of the national program for the control of the pinewood nematode (PROLUNP). Research regarding the bioecology of the nematode and insect as well as new detection methods, e.g., involving real-time PCR, has progressed since 1999. International agreements (GATT, WTO) and sharing of scientific information is of paramount importance to effectively control the nematode and its vector, and thus protect our forest ecosystems and forest economy.

Pine Wilt Disease: A Threat to Pine Forests in Turkey?

The pinewood nematode, is the causal agent of pine wilt disease, a serious threat to native pine forest in eastern Asia (Japan, Korea, China and Taiwan) and some parts of North America (USA, Canada and Mexico). In 1999, this nematode was found and identified for the first time in Portugal and in Europe. The detection of this quarantine pest in Portugal has indicated the need to know more about the distribution of Bursaphelenchus spp. in coniferous trees in Europe in order to describe the geographic range of the species and to act quickly in case of the nematode’s unwanted introduction into other European regions. Pine forest has a wide distribution in Turkey that increases the number of susceptible host trees for pinewood nematode. Because of these resaons, some regions of Turkey were surveyed for the presence of the nematode. Three different species of Bursaphelenchus were found. However, B. xylophilus was not detected. The detection of B. mucronatus, very similar to B. xylophilus biologically and morphologically, is very important. The presence of this species indicates that B. xylophilus could spread easly in conifer forests of Turkey. A study was conducted to determine the pathogenicity of B. mucronatus and 80% of seedlings of P. sylvestris were wilted. Biological characteristics of M. galloprovincialis were compared with M. carolinensis, Nort American vector, and some of them were found to be similar.

Common Ragweed: A Threat to Environmental Health in Europe

Common or short ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) is an annual herb belonging to the Asteraceae family that was described by Carl Linnaeus in the 18th century. It is a noxious invasive species that is an important weed in agriculture and a source of highly allergenic pollen. The importance placed on A. artemisiifolia is reflected by the number of international projects that have now been launched by the European Commission and the increasing number of publications being produced on this topic. This review paper examines existing knowledge about ragweed ecology, distribution and flowering phenology and the environmental health risk that this noxious plant poses in Europe. The paper also examines control measures used in the fight against it and state of the art methods for modelling atmospheric concentrations of this important aeroallergen. Common ragweed is an environmental health threat, not only in its native North America but also in many parts of the world where it has been introduced. In Europe, where the plant has now become naturalised and frequently forms part of the flora, the threat posed by ragweed has been identified and steps are being taken to reduce further geographical expansion and limit increases in population densities of the plant in order to protect the allergic population. This is particularly important when one considers possible range shifts, changes in flowering phenology and increases in the amount of pollen and allergenic potency that could be brought about by changes in climate.

The Impact of Thought Speed and Variability on Psychological State and Threat Perception: Further Exploration of the Theory of Mental Motion

Thought speed and variability are purportedly common features of specific psychological states, such as mania and anxiety. The present study explored the independent and combinational influence of these variables upon condition-specific symptoms and affective state, as proposed by Pronin and Jacobs’ (Perspect Psychol Sci, 3:461–485, 2008) theory of mental motion. A general population sample was recruited online (N = 263). Participants completed a thought speed and variability manipulation task, inducing a combination of fast/slow and varied/repetitive thought. Change in mania and anxiety symptoms was assessed through direct self-reported symptom levels and indirect, processing bias assessment (threat interpretation). Results indicated that fast and varied thought independently increased self-reported mania symptoms. Affect was significantly less positive and more negative during slow thought. No change in anxiety symptoms or threat interpretation was found between manipulation conditions. No evidence for the proposed combinational influence of speed and variability was found. Implications and avenues for therapeutic intervention are discussed.