On the ability of statistical wind-wave models to capture the variability and long-term trends of the North Atlantic winter wave climate

A dynamical wind-wave climate simulation covering the North Atlantic Ocean and spanning the whole 21st century under the A1B scenario has been compared with a set of statistical projections using atmospheric variables or large scale climate indices as predictors. As a first step, the performance of all statistical models has been evaluated for the present-day climate; namely they have been compared with a dynamical wind-wave hindcast in terms of winter Significant Wave Height (SWH) trends and variance as well as with altimetry data. For the projections, it has been found that statistical models that use wind speed as independent variable predictor are able to capture a larger fraction of the winter SWH inter-annual variability (68% on average) and of the long term changes projected by the dynamical simulation. Conversely, regression models using climate indices, sea level pressure and/or pressure gradient as predictors, account for a smaller SWH variance (from 2.8% to 33%) and do not reproduce the dynamically projected long term trends over the North Atlantic. Investigating the wind-sea and swell components separately, we have found that the combination of two regression models, one for wind-sea waves and another one for the swell component, can improve significantly the wave field projections obtained from single regression models over the North Atlantic.

End-tidal CO2 pressure: an important parameter for a correct interpretation of changes in cerebral hemodynamics and oxygenation measured with functional near infrared spectrophotometry (fNIRS)

The aim of the present study was to investigate the effects of different speech tasks (recitation of prose (PR), alliteration (AR) and hexameter (HR) verses) and a control task (mental arithmetic (MA) with voicing of the result) on endtidal CO2 (ET-CO2), cerebral hemodynamics; i.e. total hemoglobin (tHb) and tissue oxygen saturation (StO2). tHb and StO2 were measured with a frequency domain near infrared spectrophotometer (ISS Inc., USA) and ET-CO2 with a gas analyzer (Nellcor N1000). Measurements were performed in 24 adult volunteers (11 female, 13 male; age range 22 to 64 years) during task performance in a randomized order on 4 different days to avoid potential carry over effects. Statistical analysis was applied to test differences between baseline, 2 recitation and 5 recovery periods. The two brain hemispheres and 4 tasks were tested separately. Data analysis revealed that during the recitation tasks (PR, AR and HR) StO2 decreased statistically significant (p < 0.05) during PR and AR in the right prefrontal cortex (PFC) and during AR and HR in the left PFC. tHb showed a significant decrease during HR in the right PFC and during PR, AR and HR in the left PFC. During the MA task, StO2 increased significantly. A significant decrease in ET-CO2 was found during all 4 tasks with the smallest decrease during the MA task. In conclusion, we hypothesize that the observed changes in tHb and StO2 are mainly caused by an altered breathing during the tasks that led a lowering of the CO2 content in the blood provoked a cerebral CO2 reaction, i.e. a vasoconstriction of blood vessels due to decreased CO2 pressure and thereby decrease in cerebral blood volume. Therefore, breathing changes should be monitored during brain studies involving speech when using functional near infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) to ensure a correct interpretation of changes in hemodynamics and oxygenation.

Reporting of statistical results in prosthodontic and implantology journals: p values or confidence intervals?

PURPOSE Confidence intervals (CIs) are integral to the interpretation of the precision and clinical relevance of research findings. The aim of this study was to ascertain the frequency of reporting of CIs in leading prosthodontic and dental implantology journals and to explore possible factors associated with improved reporting. MATERIALS AND METHODS Thirty issues of nine journals in prosthodontics and implant dentistry were accessed, covering the years 2005 to 2012: The Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry, Journal of Oral Rehabilitation, The International Journal of Prosthodontics, The International Journal of Periodontics & Restorative Dentistry, Clinical Oral Implants Research, Clinical Implant Dentistry and Related Research, The International Journal of Oral & Maxillofacial Implants, Implant Dentistry, and Journal of Dentistry. Articles were screened and the reporting of CIs and P values recorded. Other information including study design, region of authorship, involvement of methodologists, and ethical approval was also obtained. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression was used to identify characteristics associated with reporting of CIs. RESULTS Interrater agreement for the data extraction performed was excellent (kappa = 0.88; 95% CI: 0.87 to 0.89). CI reporting was limited, with mean reporting across journals of 14%. CI reporting was associated with journal type, study design, and involvement of a methodologist or statistician. CONCLUSIONS Reporting of CI in implant dentistry and prosthodontic journals requires improvement. Improved reporting will aid appraisal of the clinical relevance of research findings by providing a range of values within which the effect size lies, thus giving the end user the opportunity to interpret the results in relation to clinical practice.

Systematic interpretation of molecular beacon polymerase chain reaction for identifying rpoB mutations in Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates with mixed resistant and susceptible bacteria

Detection of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), a frequent cause of treatment failure, takes 2 or more weeks to identify by culture. RIF-resistance is a hallmark of MDR-TB, and detection of mutations in the rpoB gene of Mycobacterium tuberculosis using molecular beacon probes with real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) is a novel approach that takes ≤2 days. However, qPCR identification of resistant isolates, particularly for isolates with mixed RIF-susceptible and RIF-resistant bacteria, is reader dependent and limits its clinical use. The aim of this study was to develop an objective, reader-independent method to define rpoB mutants using beacon qPCR. This would facilitate the transition from a research protocol to the clinical setting, where high-throughput methods with objective interpretation are required. For this, DNAs from 107 M. tuberculosis clinical isolates with known susceptibility to RIF by culture-based methods were obtained from 2 regions where isolates have not previously been subjected to evaluation using molecular beacon qPCR: the Texas–Mexico border and Colombia. Using coded DNA specimens, mutations within an 81-bp hot spot region of rpoB were established by qPCR with 5 beacons spanning this region. Visual and mathematical approaches were used to establish whether the qPCR cycle threshold of the experimental isolate was significantly higher (mutant) compared to a reference wild-type isolate. Visual classification of the beacon qPCR required reader training for strains with a mixture of RIF-susceptible and RIF-resistant bacteria. Only then had the visual interpretation by an experienced reader had 100% sensitivity and 94.6% specificity versus RIF-resistance by culture phenotype and 98.1% sensitivity and 100% specificity versus mutations based on DNA sequence. The mathematical approach was 98% sensitive and 94.5% specific versus culture and 96.2% sensitive and 100% specific versus DNA sequence. Our findings indicate the mathematical approach has advantages over the visual reading, in that it uses a Microsoft Excel template to eliminate reader bias or inexperience, and allows objective interpretation from high-throughput analyses even in the presence of a mixture of RIF-resistant and RIF-susceptible isolates without the need for reader training.^

MRTAB: Stata module to compute one- and two-way tables/graphs of multiple responses

mrtab tabulates multiple responses which are held as a set of indicator variables or as a set of polytomous response variables.

Source records of the great war : a comprehensive and readable source record of the world's great war, emphasizing the more important events, and presenting these as complete narratives in the actual words of the chief officials and most eminent leaders ... presenting documents from government archives and other authoritative sources, with outline narratives, indices, chronologies, and courses of reading on sociological movements and individual national activities /

"The war with Germany, a statistical summary by Leonard P. Ayres ... chief of the Statistics branch of the General staff": v. 7, 153 p. at end.

Message-passing for inference and optimization of real variables on sparse graphs

The inference and optimization in sparse graphs with real variables is studied using methods of statistical mechanics. Efficient distributed algorithms for the resource allocation problem are devised. Numerical simulations show excellent performance and full agreement with the theoretical results. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2006.

The relationship of culturally responsive instruction and the reading comprehension and attitude of struggling urban adolescent readers

Culturally responsive instruction refers to the identification of relevant cultural aspects of students' lives and infusion of these into the curriculum. This instructional approach assumes that a culturally appropriate curriculum can potentially motivate, engage, and lead students to higher rates of achievement. This quasi-experimental study (N=44) investigated the relationship of culturally responsive instruction and the reading comprehension and attitude of struggling urban adolescent readers. The study incorporated the use of culturally responsive instruction using culturally relevant literature (CRL), the Bluford Series Novels, as authentic texts of instruction. Participants were seventh grade reading students at a Title I middle school in South Florida. After a baseline period, two different classes were taught for 8 weeks using different methods. One class formed the experimental group ( n=22) and the other class formed the comparison group (n =22). The CRI curriculum for the experimental group embraced the socio-cultural perspective through the use of small discussion groups in which students read and constructed meaning with peers through interaction with the Bluford Series Novels; gave written responses to multiple strategies according to SCRAP - Summarize, Connect, Reflect, Ask Questions, Predict; responded to literal and inferential questions, while at the same time validating their responses through evidence from the text. The Read XL (basal reader) curriculum of the comparison group utilized a traditional form of instruction which incorporated the reading of passages followed by responses to comprehension questions, and teacher-led whole group discussion. The main sources of data were collected from the Gates-MacGinitie Reading Tests, the Florida Assessments for Instruction in Reading (FAIR), and the Rhody Secondary Reading Attitude Assessment. Statistical analyses were performed using Repeated Measures ANOVAs. Findings from the study revealed that the experimental participants' reading attitudes and FAIR comprehension scores increased when compared to the comparison group. Overall, the results from the study revealed that culturally responsive instruction can potentially foster reading comprehension and a more positive attitude towards reading. However, a replication of this study in other settings with a larger, more randomized sample size and a greater ethnic variation is needed in order to make full generalizations.

The effects on students' self-efficacy beliefs regarding their comprehension of American literature when aesthetic reading and reader response strategy are implemented

High-stakes testing and accountability have infiltrated the education system in the United States; the top priority for all teachers must be student progress on standardized tests. This has resulted in the predominance of reading for test-taking, (efferent reading), in the English, language arts, and reading classrooms. Authentic uses of print activities, like aesthetic reading, that encourage students to engage individually with a text, have been pushed aside. ^ During a 3-week time period, regular level, English 3/American literature students in a Title I magnet high school, participated in this quasi-experimental study (N = 62). It measured the effects of an intervention of reading American literature texts aesthetically and writing aesthetically-evoked reader responses on students' self-efficacy beliefs regarding their comprehension of American literature. One trained teacher and the researcher participated in the study: student participants were pre- and post- tested using the Confidence in Reading American Literature Survey which examined their self-efficacy beliefs regarding their comprehension of American literature. Several statistical analyses were performed. The results of the linear regression analyses partially supported a positive relationship between aesthetically-evoked reader responses and students' self-efficacy beliefs regarding their comprehension of American literature. Additionally, the results of the 2 (sex) x 2 (treatment) ANCOVAs conducted to test group differences in self-efficacy beliefs regarding the comprehension of American literature between treatment and control groups indicated a main effect for treatment (but not sex; nor was there a significant sex x treatment interaction), suggesting the treatment was partially effective in increasing students' self-efficacy beliefs. Seven of the twelve ANCOVAs indicated a statistically significant increase in the treatment group's adjusted group mean self-efficacy belief scores as a result of being exposed to the intervention. In six of these seven analyses, increases in self-efficacy beliefs occurred in tasks that required three or more higher-order levels of thinking/learning. The results are discussed in terms of theoretical, empirical and practical significance. Future research is recommended to extend the intervention beyond the narrow confines of a Title I magnet school to settings where the intervention could be tested longitudinally, e. g., honors and gifted students, elementary and middle schools.^

The Effects on Students' Self-Efficacy Beliefs Regarding Their Comprehension of American Literature When Aesthetic Reading and Reader Response Strategy are Implemented

High-stakes testing and accountability have infiltrated the education system in the United States; the top priority for all teachers must be student progress on standardized tests. This has resulted in the predominance of reading for test-taking, (efferent reading), in the English, language arts, and reading classrooms. Authentic uses of print activities, like aesthetic reading, that encourage students to engage individually with a text, have been pushed aside. During a 3-week time period, regular level, English 3/American literature students in a Title I magnet high school, participated in this quasi-experimental study (N = 62). It measured the effects of an intervention of reading American literature texts aesthetically and writing aesthetically-evoked reader responses on students’ self-efficacy beliefs regarding their comprehension of American literature. One trained teacher and the researcher participated in the study: student participants were pre- and post- tested using the Confidence in Reading American Literature Survey which examined their self-efficacy beliefs regarding their comprehension of American literature. Several statistical analyses were performed. The results of the linear regression analyses partially supported a positive relationship between aesthetically-evoked reader responses and students’ self-efficacy beliefs regarding their comprehension of American literature. Additionally, the results of the 2 (sex) x 2 (treatment) ANCOVAs conducted to test group differences in self-efficacy beliefs regarding the comprehension of American literature between treatment and control groups indicated a main effect for treatment (but not sex; nor was there a significant sex x treatment interaction), suggesting the treatment was partially effective in increasing students’ self-efficacy beliefs. Seven of the twelve ANCOVAs indicated a statistically significant increase in the treatment group’s adjusted group mean self-efficacy belief scores as a result of being exposed to the intervention. In six of these seven analyses, increases in self-efficacy beliefs occurred in tasks that required three or more higher-order levels of thinking/learning. The results are discussed in terms of theoretical, empirical and practical significance. Future research is recommended to extend the intervention beyond the narrow confines of a Title I magnet school to settings where the intervention could be tested longitudinally, e. g., honors and gifted students, elementary and middle schools.

The Relationship of Culturally Responsive Instruction and the Reading Comprehension and Attitude of Struggling Urban Adolescent Readers

Culturally responsive instruction refers to the identification of relevant cultural aspects of students’ lives and infusion of these into the curriculum. This instructional approach assumes that a culturally appropriate curriculum can potentially motivate, engage, and lead students to higher rates of achievement. This quasi-experimental study (N=44) investigated the relationship of culturally responsive instruction and the reading comprehension and attitude of struggling urban adolescent readers. The study incorporated the use of culturally responsive instruction using culturally relevant literature (CRL), the Bluford Series Novels, as authentic texts of instruction. Participants were seventh grade reading students at a Title I middle school in South Florida. After a baseline period, two different classes were taught for 8 weeks using different methods. One class formed the experimental group (n=22) and the other class formed the comparison group (n=22). The CRI curriculum for the experimental group embraced the socio-cultural perspective through the use of small discussion groups in which students read and constructed meaning with peers through interaction with the Bluford Series Novels; gave written responses to multiple strategies according to SCRAP – Summarize, Connect, Reflect, Ask Questions, Predict; responded to literal and inferential questions, while at the same time validating their responses through evidence from the text. The Read XL (basal reader) curriculum of the comparison group utilized a traditional form of instruction which incorporated the reading of passages followed by responses to comprehension questions, and teacher-led whole group discussion. The main sources of data were collected from the Gates-MacGinitie Reading Tests, the Florida Assessments for Instruction in Reading (FAIR), and the Rhody Secondary Reading Attitude Assessment. Statistical analyses were performed using Repeated Measures ANOVAs. Findings from the study revealed that the experimental participants’ reading attitudes and FAIR comprehension scores increased when compared to the comparison group. Overall, the results from the study revealed that culturally responsive instruction can potentially foster reading comprehension and a more positive attitude towards reading. However, a replication of this study in other settings with a larger, more randomized sample size and a greater ethnic variation is needed in order to make full generalizations.

Numerical evidence against a conjecture on the cover time of planar graphs

We investigate a conjecture on the cover times of planar graphs by means of large Monte Carlo simulations. The conjecture states that the cover time tau (G(N)) of a planar graph G(N) of N vertices and maximal degree d is lower bounded by tau (G(N)) >= C(d)N(lnN)(2) with C(d) = (d/4 pi) tan(pi/d), with equality holding for some geometries. We tested this conjecture on the regular honeycomb (d = 3), regular square (d = 4), regular elongated triangular (d = 5), and regular triangular (d = 6) lattices, as well as on the nonregular Union Jack lattice (d(min) = 4, d(max) = 8). Indeed, the Monte Carlo data suggest that the rigorous lower bound may hold as an equality for most of these lattices, with an interesting issue in the case of the Union Jack lattice. The data for the honeycomb lattice, however, violate the bound with the conjectured constant. The empirical probability distribution function of the cover time for the square lattice is also briefly presented, since very little is known about cover time probability distribution functions in general.