811 resultados para Rational Expectations


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Increased media exposure to layoffs and corporate quarterly financial reporting have created arguable a common perception – especially favored by the media itself – that the companies have been forced to improve their financial performance from quarter to quarter. Academically the relevant question is whether the companies themselves feel that they are exposed to short-term pressure to perform even if it means that they have to compromise company’s long-term future. This paper studies this issue using results from a survey conducted among the 500 largest companies in Finland. The results show that companies in general feel moderate short-term pressure, with reasonable dispersion across firms. There seems to be a link between the degree of pressure felt, and the firm’s ownership structure, i.e. we find support for the existence of short-term versus long-term owners. We also find significant ownership related differences, in line with expectations, in how such short-term pressure is reflected in actual decision variables such as the investment criteria used.

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We report the study of complex and unexpected dependencies of nanocrystal size as well as nanocrystalsize distribution on various reaction parameters in the synthesis of ZnO nanocrystals using poly(vinyl pyrollidone) (PVP) as a capping agent. This method establishes a qualitatively different growth mechanism to the anticipated Ostwald ripening behavior. The study of size-distribution kinetics and an understanding of the observed non-monotonic behaviors provides a route to rational synthesis. We used a simple, but accurate, approach to estimate the size-distribution function of nanocrystals from the UV-absorption spectrum. Our results demonstrate the accuracy and generality of this approach, and we also illustrate its application to various semiconducting nanocrystals, such as ZnO, ZnS, and CdSe, over a wide size range (1.8-5.3 nm).

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The aim of this dissertation is to model economic variables by a mixture autoregressive (MAR) model. The MAR model is a generalization of linear autoregressive (AR) model. The MAR -model consists of K linear autoregressive components. At any given point of time one of these autoregressive components is randomly selected to generate a new observation for the time series. The mixture probability can be constant over time or a direct function of a some observable variable. Many economic time series contain properties which cannot be described by linear and stationary time series models. A nonlinear autoregressive model such as MAR model can a plausible alternative in the case of these time series. In this dissertation the MAR model is used to model stock market bubbles and a relationship between inflation and the interest rate. In the case of the inflation rate we arrived at the MAR model where inflation process is less mean reverting in the case of high inflation than in the case of normal inflation. The interest rate move one-for-one with expected inflation. We use the data from the Livingston survey as a proxy for inflation expectations. We have found that survey inflation expectations are not perfectly rational. According to our results information stickiness play an important role in the expectation formation. We also found that survey participants have a tendency to underestimate inflation. A MAR model has also used to model stock market bubbles and crashes. This model has two regimes: the bubble regime and the error correction regime. In the error correction regime price depends on a fundamental factor, the price-dividend ratio, and in the bubble regime, price is independent of fundamentals. In this model a stock market crash is usually caused by a regime switch from a bubble regime to an error-correction regime. According to our empirical results bubbles are related to a low inflation. Our model also imply that bubbles have influences investment return distribution in both short and long run.

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This paper addresses some of the basic issues involved in the determination of rational strategies for players in two-target games. We show that unlike single-target games where the task of role assignment and selection of strategies is conceptually straightforward, in two-target games, many factors like the preference ordering of outcomes by players, the relative configuration of the target sets and secured outcome regions, the uncertainty about the parameters of the game, etc., also influence the rational selection of strategies by players. The importance of these issues is illustrated through appropriate examples.

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In the absence of a reliable method for a priori prediction of structure and properties of inorganic solid materials, an experimental approach involving a systematic study of composition, structure and properties combined with chemical intuition based on previous experience is likely to be a viable alternative to the problem of rational design of inorganic materials. The approach is illustrated by taking perovskite lithium-ion conductors as an example.

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In this paper, we address a key problem faced by advertisers in sponsored search auctions on the web: how much to bid, given the bids of the other advertisers, so as to maximize individual payoffs? Assuming the generalized second price auction as the auction mechanism, we formulate this problem in the framework of an infinite horizon alternative-move game of advertiser bidding behavior. For a sponsored search auction involving two advertisers, we characterize all the pure strategy and mixed strategy Nash equilibria. We also prove that the bid prices will lead to a Nash equilibrium, if the advertisers follow a myopic best response bidding strategy. Following this, we investigate the bidding behavior of the advertisers if they use Q-learning. We discover empirically an interesting trend that the Q-values converge even if both the advertisers learn simultaneously.

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In a computational grid, the presence of grid resource providers who are rational and intelligent could lead to an overall degradation in the efficiency of the grid. In this paper, we design incentive compatible grid resource procurement mechanisms which ensure that the efficiency of the grid is not affected by the rational behavior of resource providers.In particular, we offer three elegant incentive compatible mechanisms for this purpose: (1) G-DSIC (Grid-Dominant Strategy Incentive Compatible) mechanism (2) G-BIC (Grid-Bayesian Nash Incentive Compatible) mechanism (3) G-OPT(Grid-Optimal) mechanism which minimizes the cost to the grid user, satisfying at the same time, (a) Bayesian incentive compatibility and (b) individual rationality. We evaluate the relative merits and demerits of the above three mechanisms using game theoretical analysis and numerical experiments.

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The paper presents a rational approach to model the behavior of bonded soils within the frame work of hardening plasticity. The approach is based on the premise that the resistance of bonded materials is a superposition of the two components of cement bond strength and soil frictional strength and that the deformation of the soil is associated with the frictional component of stresses just as in the case of a remoulded soil, the bonds offering additional resistance at any given strain level. This concept is similar to two stiffnesses acting in parallel for the same strain response. The proposed model considers the constitutive laws separately for the two components (bond and frictional) and adds the two to get the overall response. The unbonded soil component is described by the well known 'modified Cam clay' model. The response of the bond component is also described by a strain softening elasto-plastic model, considering the behavior to be elastic up to the yield surface and elasto-plastic beyond yield surface. To illustrate the capability of the proposed, model some laboratory test results of both compression and-extension shear tests are predicted. Despite the model being simple, several typical features of the behavior of bonded materials are well reproduced. The model parameters are well defined and easily determinable.

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We describe our kt-resummation model for total cross-sections and show its application to pp and ¯pp scattering. The model uses mini-jets to drive the rise of the cross-section and soft gluon resummation in the infrared region to transform the violent rise of the mini-jet cross-section into a logarithmic behaviour in agreement with the Froissart bound.

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Two new dicyanovinyl (DCV) functionalized triarylboranes (Mes(2)B-pi-spacer-DCV, for 1: pi-spacer = C6H4, for 2: pi-spacer = 2,3,5,6-tetramethyl-phenyl) are reported. The molecular structures of 1 and 2 are similar except for the spacer which connects the boryl and DCV units. This small structural perturbation induces drastic changes in the optical properties of 1 and 2. Compound 2 shows weak dual fluorescence emission in nonpolar solvents and a stronger emission in polar solvents. Compound 1 is weakly fluorescent in polar environments but shows an intense single luminescence peak in less polar environments. Compound 1 exhibits a turn-off fluorescence response for both fluoride and cyanide: in contrast, 2 shows a turn on fluorescence response for both anions with different fluorescence signatures. The NMR titration studies reveal that for compound 2, fluoride binds to the boron centre and cyanide binds to the DCV unit. For compound 1, the fluoride ion binds to the boron center, whereas the CN- binds to both the Ar3B and DCV units.

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Temperature sensitive (Ts) mutants of proteins provide experimentalists with a powerful and reversible way of conditionally expressing genes. The technique has been widely used in determining the role of gene and gene products in several cellular processes. Traditionally, Ts mutants are generated by random mutagenesis and then selected though laborious large-scale screening. Our web server, TSpred (http://mspc.bii.a-star.edu.sg/TSpred/), now enables users to rationally design Ts mutants for their proteins of interest. TSpred uses hydrophobicity and hydrophobic moment, deduced from primary sequence and residue depth, inferred from 3D structures to predict/identify buried hydrophobic residues. Mutating these residues leads to the creation of Ts mutants. Our method has been experimentally validated in 36 positions in six different proteins. It is an attractive proposition for Ts mutant engineering as it proposes a small number of mutations and with high precision. The accompanying web server is simple and intuitive to use and can handle proteins and protein complexes of different sizes.

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The primary role of substituted side chains in organic semiconductors is to increase their solubility in common organic solvents. In the recent past, many literature reports have suggested that the side chains play a critical role in molecular packing and strongly impact the charge transport properties of conjugated polymers. In this work, we have investigated the influence of side-chains on the charge transport behavior of a novel class of diketopyrrolopyrrole (DPP) based alternating copolymers. To investigate the role of side-chains, we prepared four diketopyrrolopyrrole-diketopyrrolopyrrole (DPP-DPP) conjugated polymers with varied side-chains and carried out a systematic study of thin film microstructure and charge transport properties in polymer thin-film transistors (PTFTs). Combining results obtained from grazing incidence X-ray diffraction (GIXD) and charge transport properties in PTFTs, we conclude side-chains have a strong influence on molecular packing, thin film microstructure, and the charge carrier mobility of DPP-DPP copolymers. However, the influence of side-chains on optical properties was moderate. The preferential ``edge-on'' packing and dominant n-channel behavior with exceptionally high field-effect electron mobility values of >1 cm(2) V-1 s(-1) were observed by incorporating hydrophilic (triethylene glycol) and hydrophobic side-chains of alternate DPP units. In contrast moderate electron and hole mobilities were observed by incorporation of branched hydrophobic side-chains. This work clearly demonstrates that the subtle balance between hydrophobicity and hydrophilicity induced by side-chains is a powerful strategy to alter the molecular packing and improve the ambipolar charge transport properties in DPP-DPP based conjugated polymers. Theoretical analysis supports the conclusion that the side-chains influence polymer properties through morphology changes, as there is no effect on the electronic properties in the gas phase. The exceptional electron mobility is at least partially a result of the strong intramolecular conjugation of the donor and acceptor as evidenced by the unusually wide conduction band of the polymer.

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The present study deals with the diffusion and phase transition behaviour of paraffin reinforced with carbon nano-additives namely graphene oxide (GO) and surface functionalized single walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNT). Bulk disordered systems of paraffin hydrocarbons impregnated with carbon nano-additives have been generated in realistic equilibrium conformations for potential application as latent heat storage systems. Ab initio molecular dynamics(MD) in conjugation with COMPASS forcefield has been implemented using periodic boundary conditions. The proposed scheme allows determination of optimum nano-additive loading for improving thermo-physical properties through analysis of mass, thermal and transport properties; and assists in determination of composite behaviour and related performance from microscopic point of view. It was observed that nanocomposites containing 7.8% surface functionalised SWCNT and 55% GO loading corresponds to best latent heat storage system. The propounded methodology could serve as a by-pass route for economically taxing and iterative experimental procedures required to attain the optimum composition for best performance. The results also hint at the large unexplored potential of ab-initio classical MD techniques for predicting performance of new nanocomposites for potential phase change material applications. (C) 2015 Author(s).

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We study moduli spaces M-X (r, c(1), c(2)) parametrizing slope semistable vector bundles of rank r and fixed Chern classes c(1), c(2) on a ruled surface whose base is a rational nodal curve. We showthat under certain conditions, these moduli spaces are irreducible, smooth and rational (when non-empty). We also prove that they are non-empty in some cases. We show that for a rational ruled surface defined over real numbers, the moduli space M-X (r, c(1), c(2)) is rational as a variety defined over R.