"Choice, chance and change": (1606) or, Glimpses of "Merry England" in the olden time.

Page 83 was issued in 1883 with no. 38 of the series ("Fly-leaves, or Additional notes and illustrations" ...) see v. 38.

Whig and Tory, or, Wit on both sides : being a collection of state poems, upon all remarkable occurrences : from the change of the ministry to this time /

A collection of poems for and against Dr. Sacheverell.

Variability in time delay between two models of pulse oximeters for deriving the photoplethysmographic signals

Pulse oximetry is commonly used as an arterial blood oxygen saturation (SaO(2)) measure. However, its other serial output, the photoplethysmography (PPG) signal, is not as well studied. Raw PPG signals can be used to estimate cardiovascular measures like pulse transit time (PTT) and possibly heart rate (HR). These timing-related measurements are heavily dependent on the minimal variability in phase delay of the PPG signals. Masimo SET (R) Rad-9 (TM) and Novametrix Oxypleth oximeters were investigated for their PPG phase characteristics on nine healthy adults. To facilitate comparison, PPG signals were acquired from fingers on the same hand in a random fashion. Results showed that mean PTT variations acquired from the Masimo oximeter (37.89 ms) were much greater than the Novametrix (5.66 ms). Documented evidence suggests that I ms variation in PTT is equivalent to I mmHg change in blood pressure. Moreover, the PTT trend derived from the Masimo oximeter can be mistaken as obstructive sleep apnoeas based on the known criteria. HR comparison was evaluated against estimates attained from an electrocardiogram (ECG). Novametrix differed from ECG by 0.71 +/- 0.58% (p < 0.05) while Masimo differed by 4.51 +/- 3.66% (p > 0.05). Modem oximeters can be attractive for their improved SaO(2) measurement. However, using raw PPG signals obtained directly from these oximeters for timing-related measurements warrants further investigations.

Morningness-eveningness orientation, optimal time-of-day and attitude change: Evidence for the systematic processing of a persuasive communication

This study investigates the effects of morningness-eveningness orientation and time-of-day on persuasion. In an attitude change paradigm, 120 female participants read a persuasive message that consisted of six counter-attitudinal arguments (anti-voluntary euthanasia) either in the morning (8:30 a.m.) or in the evening (7:00 p.m.). Attitude change was assessed by measuring attitudes towards the target issue before and after exposure to the message. Message processing was assessed by thought-listing and message recall tasks. Self-reported mood and arousal were monitored throughout. Participants were classified into M- and E-types according to their scores on the Horne and Ostberg (1976) MEQ questionnaire. When tested at their respective optimal time-of-day (i.e., morning for M-types/evening for E-types), M- and E-types reported higher energetic arousal, greater agreement with the message, greater message-congruent thinking, and a propensity for superior message recall compared to M- and E-types tested at their nonoptimal time-of-day (i.e., evening for M-types/morning for E-types). The attitude change in those tested at their optimal time-of-day was mediated by the level of message-congruent thinking. Results are interpreted in terms of the Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Managing change and time in dynamic workflow processes

Business environments have become exceedingly dynamic and competitive in recent times. This dynamism is manifested in the form of changing process requirements and time constraints. Workflow technology is currently one of the most promising fields of research in business process automation. However, workflow systems to date do not provide the flexibility necessary to support the dynamic nature of business processes. In this paper we primarily discuss the issues and challenges related to managing change and time in workflows representing dynamic business processes. We also present an analysis of workflow modifications and provide feasibility considerations for the automation of this process.

Morningness-eveningness orientation and attitude change:evidence for greater systematic processing and attitude change at optimal time-of-day

This study examines the relationship between morningness-eveningness orientation and time-of day on attitude change, and tests the hypothesis that people will be more persuaded when tested at their optimal time-of-day (i.e., morning for M-types and evening for E-types) than non-optimal time-of-day (i.e., evening for M-Types and morning for E-types). Two hundred and twenty participants read a message that contained either strong vs. weak quality counter-attitudinal arguments (anti-voluntary euthanasia) in the morning (9.00. a.m.) or in the evening (7.00. p.m.). When tested at their respective optimal time-of-day (for both M- and E-types) there was a reliable difference in attitude change between the strong vs. weak messages (indicating message processing had occurred) while there was no difference between strong vs. weak messages when tested at their non-optimal time-of-day. In addition, the amount of message-congruent thinking mediated the attitude change. The results show that M- and E-types pay greater attention to and elaborate on a persuasive message at their optimal time-of-day, and this leads to increased attitude change, compared to those tested at their non-optimal time-of-day. © 2012.

On-off and multistate intermittencies in cascaded random distributed feedback fibre laser

A range of physical and engineering systems exhibit an irregular complex dynamics featuring alternation of quiet and burst time intervals called the intermittency. The intermittent dynamics most popular in laser science is the on-off intermittency [1]. The on-off intermittency can be understood as a conversion of the noise in a system close to an instability threshold into effective time-dependent fluctuations which result in the alternation of stable and unstable periods. The on-off intermittency has been recently demonstrated in semiconductor, Erbium doped and Raman lasers [2-5]. Recently demonstrated random distributed feedback (random DFB) fiber laser has an irregular dynamics near the generation threshold [6,7]. Here we show the intermittency in the cascaded random DFB fiber laser. We study intensity fluctuations in a random DFB fiber laser based on nitrogen doped fiber. The laser generates first and second Stokes components 1120 nm and 1180 nm respectively under an appropriate pumping. We study the intermittency in the radiation of the second Stokes wave. The typical time trace near the generation threshold of the second Stokes wave (Pth) is shown at Fig. 1a. From the number of long enough time-traces we calculate statistical distribution between major spikes in time dynamics, Fig. 1b. To eliminate contribution of high frequency components of spikes we use a low pass filter along with the reference value of the output power. Experimental data is fitted by power law, ~(P-Pth)y, where is a mean time between pikes. There are two different intermittency regimes. Just above Pth, the mean time is approximated by the -3/2 power law. The -3/2 power law is typical to the on-off intermittency with hopping between two states (first and second Stokes waves in our case) [7]. At higher power, the mean time is approximated by -4 power law, that indicates a change in intermittency type to multistate. Multistable dynamics is observed in erbium-doped fiber lasers [8]. The origin of multiples states in our system could be probably connected with polarization hopping or other reasons and should be further investigated. We have presented a first experimental statistical characterisation of the on-off and multistate intermittencies that occur in the generation of the second Stokes wave in nitrogen doped random DFB fiber laser. References [1] H. Fujisaka and T. Yamada, “A New Intermittency in Coupled Dynamical Systems,” Prog. Theor. Phys. 74, 918 (1985). [2] S. Osborne, A. Amann, D. Bitauld, and S. O’Brien, “On-off intermittency in an optically injected semiconductor laser,” Phys. Rev. E 85, 056204 (2012). [3] S. Sergeyev, K. O'Mahoney, S. Popov, and A. T. Friberg, “Coherence and anticoherence resonance in high-concentration erbium-doped fiber laser,” Opt. Lett. 35, 3736 (2010). [4] A.E. El-Taher, S.V. Sergeyev, E.G. Turitsyna, P. Harper, and S. K. Turitsyn, “Intermittent Self-Pulsing in a Fiber Raman Laser”, In proc. Conf. Nonlin. Photon., paper ID 1367139, Colorado Springs, USA, 2012 [5] S.K. Turitsyn, S.A. Babin, A.E. El-Taher, P. Harper, D.V. Churkin, S.I. Kablukov, J.D. Ania-Castañón, V. Karalekas, and E.V. Podivilov, “Random distributed feedback fibre laser”, Nat. Photon..4, 231 (2010). [6] I. D. Vatnik, D. V. Churkin, S. A. Babin, and S. K. Turitsyn, "Cascaded random distributed feedback Raman fiber laser operating at 1.2 μm," Opt. Express 19, 18486 (2011). [7] W. Feller, An introduction to probability theory and its applications, Vol. 1, 3rd ed. (Wiley, New-York, 1968). [8] G. Huerta-Cuellar, A.N. Pisarchik, and Y.O. Barmenkov, “Experimental characterization of hopping dynamics in a multistable fiber laser,” Phys. Rev. E 78, 035202(R) (2008).

Engineering education research - the UK perspective at a time of change

Engineering education in the United Kingdom is at the point of embarking upon an interesting journey into uncharted waters. At no point in the past have there been so many drivers for change and so many opportunities for the development of engineering pedagogy. This paper will look at how Engineering Education Research (EER) has developed within the UK and what differentiates it from the many small scale practitioner interventions, perhaps without a clear research question or with little evaluation, which are presented at numerous staff development sessions, workshops and conferences. From this position some examples of current projects will be described, outcomes of funding opportunities will be summarised and the benefits of collaboration with other disciplines illustrated. In this study, I will account for how the design of task structure according to variation theory, as well as the probe-ware technology, make the laws of force and motion visible and learnable and, especially, in the lab studied make Newton's third law visible and learnable. I will also, as a comparison, include data from a mechanics lab that use the same probe-ware technology and deal with the same topics in mechanics, but uses a differently designed task structure. I will argue that the lower achievements on the FMCE-test in this latter case can be attributed to these differences in task structure in the lab instructions. According to my analysis, the necessary pattern of variation is not included in the design. I will also present a microanalysis of 15 hours collected from engineering students' activities in a lab about impulse and collisions based on video recordings of student's activities in a lab about impulse and collisions. The important object of learning in this lab is the development of an understanding of Newton's third law. The approach analysing students interaction using video data is inspired by ethnomethodology and conversation analysis, i.e. I will focus on students practical, contingent and embodied inquiry in the setting of the lab. I argue that my result corroborates variation theory and show this theory can be used as a 'tool' for designing labs as well as for analysing labs and lab instructions. Thus my results have implications outside the domain of this study and have implications for understanding critical features for student learning in labs. Engineering higher education is well used to change. As technology develops the abilities expected by employers of graduates expand, yet our understanding of how to make informed decisions about learning and teaching strategies does not without a conscious effort to do so. With the numerous demands of academic life, we often fail to acknowledge our incomplete understanding of how our students learn within our discipline. The journey facing engineering education in the UK is being driven by two classes of driver. Firstly there are those which we have been working to expand our understanding of, such as retention and employability, and secondly the new challenges such as substantial changes to funding systems allied with an increase in student expectations. Only through continued research can priorities be identified, addressed and a coherent and strong voice for informed change be heard within the wider engineering education community. This new position makes it even more important that through EER we acquire the knowledge and understanding needed to make informed decisions regarding approaches to teaching, curriculum design and measures to promote effective student learning. This then raises the question 'how does EER function within a diverse academic community?' Within an existing community of academics interested in taking meaningful steps towards understanding the ongoing challenges of engineering education a Special Interest Group (SIG) has formed in the UK. The formation of this group has itself been part of the rapidly changing environment through its facilitation by the Higher Education Academy's Engineering Subject Centre, an entity which through the Academy's current restructuring will no longer exist as a discrete Centre dedicated to supporting engineering academics. The aims of this group, the activities it is currently undertaking and how it expects to network and collaborate with the global EER community will be reported in this paper. This will include explanation of how the group has identified barriers to the progress of EER and how it is seeking, through a series of activities, to facilitate recognition and growth of EER both within the UK and with our valued international colleagues.

The role of time and risk preferences in adherence to physician advice on health behaviour change

Acknowledgements The Interdisciplinary Chronic Disease Collaboration (ICDC) is funded through the Alberta Heritage Foundation for Medical Research (AHFMR) Inter-disciplinary Team Grants Program. AHFMR is now Alberta Innovates – Health Solutions (AI-HS). The funding agreement ensured the authors’ independence in designing the study, interpreting the data, writing, and publishing the report. The Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates funds HERU. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors only and not those of the funding bodies.

Havana, Moscow and Washington : a triangular relationship at a time of change?

Peer reviewed

Leader's reflections on knowledge, knowing and not knowing: an analysis of change over time

One commonality across the leadership and knowledge related literature is the apparent neglect of the leaders own knowledge. This thesis sought to address this issue through conducting exploratory research into the content of leader’s personal knowledge and the process of knowing it. The empirical inquiry adopted a longitudinal approach, with interviews conducted at two separate time periods with an extended time-interval between each. The findings from this research contrast with images of leadership which suggest leaders are in control of what they know, that they own their own knowledge. The picture that emerges is one of individuals struggling to keep abreast of the knowledge required to deal with the dynamics and uncertainties of organisational life. Much knowledge is tacit, provisional and perishable and the related process of knowing more organic, evolutionary and informal than any structured or orchestrated approach. The collective nature of knowing is a central feature, with these leaders embedded in networks of uncontrollable relationships. In view of the indeterminate nature of knowing, the boundary between what is known and what one needs to know is both amorphous and ephemeral, and the likelihood of knowledge-absences is escalated. A significant finding in this regard is the identification of two critical points where not-knowing is most likely (entry and exit from role) and the differing implications of each. Overtime the knowledge that is legitimised or prioritised is significantly altered as these leaders replace the dogmas that were previously held in high esteem with the lessons from their own experience. This experience brings increased self-knowledge and a deeper appreciation of the values and morals instilled in their early lives. In view of the above findings, this study makes theoretical contribution to a number of core literatures: authentic leadership, role transition and knowledge-absences. In terms of leadership development, the findings point to the necessity to prepare leaders for the challenges they will encounter at the pivotal stages of the leadership role.

Holocene precipitation change in different monsoon sub-regions (time-slices and transient data) simulated by different global climate models, with links to model results

The recently proposed global monsoon hypothesis interprets monsoon systems as part of one global-scale atmospheric overturning circulation, implying a connection between the regional monsoon systems and an in-phase behaviour of all northern hemispheric monsoons on annual timescales (Trenberth et al., 2000). Whether this concept can be applied to past climates and variability on longer timescales is still under debate, because the monsoon systems exhibit different regional characteristics such as different seasonality (i.e. onset, peak, and withdrawal). To investigate the interconnection of different monsoon systems during the pre-industrial Holocene, five transient global climate model simulations have been analysed with respect to the rainfall trend and variability in different sub-domains of the Afro-Asian monsoon region. Our analysis suggests that on millennial timescales with varying orbital forcing, the monsoons do not behave as a tightly connected global system. According to the models, the Indian and North African monsoons are coupled, showing similar rainfall trend and moderate correlation in rainfall variability in all models. The East Asian monsoon changes independently during the Holocene. The dissimilarities in the seasonality of the monsoon sub-systems lead to a stronger response of the North African and Indian monsoon systems to the Holocene insolation forcing than of the East Asian monsoon and affect the seasonal distribution of Holocene rainfall variations. Within the Indian and North African monsoon domain, precipitation solely changes during the summer months, showing a decreasing Holocene precipitation trend. In the East Asian monsoon region, the precipitation signal is determined by an increasing precipitation trend during spring and a decreasing precipitation change during summer, partly balancing each other. A synthesis of reconstructions and the model results do not reveal an impact of the different seasonality on the timing of the Holocene rainfall optimum in the different sub-monsoon systems. They rather indicate locally inhomogeneous rainfall changes and show, that single palaeo-records should not be used to characterise the rainfall change and monsoon evolution for entire monsoon sub-systems.

Reasoning about change over time: Actions, events and their effects

This paper presents a new formalism for reasoning about change over time. The formalism derives a clean separation between the notion of states and situations. It allows more flexible temporal causal relationships than do other formalisms for reasoning about causal change, such as the situation calculus and the event calculus. It includes effects that start during, immediately after, or some time after their causes, and which end before, simultaneously with, or after their causes. A formal distinction between actions, action-types and events is proposed, which allows the expression of common-sense causal laws at high level. It is shown how these laws can be used to deduce state change over time at low level, when events occur under certain preconditions hold. Two problems that beset most interval-based temporal systems, i.e., the so-called dividing instant problem and intermingling problem, are absent from the formalism.

Asymptotic Change-Point Analysis of the Dependencies in Time Series

In recent papers, Wied and his coauthors have introduced change-point procedures to detect and estimate structural breaks in the correlation between time series. To prove the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic and stopping time as well as the change-point estimation rate, they use an extended functional Delta method and assume nearly constant expectations and variances of the time series. In this thesis, we allow asymptotically infinitely many structural breaks in the means and variances of the time series. For this setting, we present test statistics and stopping times which are used to determine whether or not the correlation between two time series is and stays constant, respectively. Additionally, we consider estimates for change-points in the correlations. The employed nonparametric statistics depend on the means and variances. These (nuisance) parameters are replaced by estimates in the course of this thesis. We avoid assuming a fixed form of these estimates but rather we use "blackbox" estimates, i.e. we derive results under assumptions that these estimates fulfill. These results are supplement with examples. This thesis is organized in seven sections. In Section 1, we motivate the issue and present the mathematical model. In Section 2, we consider a posteriori and sequential testing procedures, and investigate convergence rates for change-point estimation, always assuming that the means and the variances of the time series are known. In the following sections, the assumptions of known means and variances are relaxed. In Section 3, we present the assumptions for the mean and variance estimates that we will use for the mean in Section 4, for the variance in Section 5, and for both parameters in Section 6. Finally, in Section 7, a simulation study illustrates the finite sample behaviors of some testing procedures and estimates.

A generalized model for population dynamics where interactions change over time

La dinámica demográfica ha sido modelada con ecuaciones diferenciales desde que Malthus comenzó sus estudios hace más de doscientos años atrás. Los modelos convencionales siempre tratan relaciones entre especies como estáticas, denotando sólo su dependencia durante un período fijo del tiempo, aunque sea conocido que las relaciones entre especies pueden cambiar con el tiempo. Aquí proponemos un modelo para la dinámica demográfica que incorpora la evolución con el tiempo de las interacciones entre especies. Este modelo incluye una amplia gama de interacciones, de depredador-presa a las relaciones mutualistas, ya sea obligada o facultativa. El mecanismo que describimos permite la transición de una clase de relación entre especies a algún otro, según algunos parámetros externos fijados por el contexto. Estas transiciones podrían evitar la extinción de una de las especies, si esto termina por depender demasiado del ambiente o su relación con las otras especies.