Crossbred cow adoption and milk market participation in a multivariate count data framework

Cross-bred cow adoption is an important and potent policy variable precipitating subsistence household entry into emerging milk markets. This paper focuses on the problem of designing policies that encourage and sustain milkmarket expansion among a sample of subsistence households in the Ethiopian highlands. In this context it is desirable to measure households’ ‘proximity’ to market in terms of the level of deficiency of essential inputs. This problem is compounded by four factors. One is the existence of cross-bred cow numbers (count data) as an important, endogenous decision by the household; second is the lack of a multivariate generalization of the Poisson regression model; third is the censored nature of the milk sales data (sales from non-participating households are, essentially, censored at zero); and fourth is an important simultaneity that exists between the decision to adopt a cross-bred cow, the decision about how much milk to produce, the decision about how much milk to consume and the decision to market that milk which is produced but not consumed internally by the household. Routine application of Gibbs sampling and data augmentation overcome these problems in a relatively straightforward manner. We model the count data from two sites close to Addis Ababa in a latent, categorical-variable setting with known bin boundaries. The single-equation model is then extended to a multivariate system that accommodates the covariance between crossbred-cow adoption, milk-output, and milk-sales equations. The latent-variable procedure proves tractable in extension to the multivariate setting and provides important information for policy formation in emerging-market settings

Valuation 'accuracy' within the Right to Buy process

Based on surveys undertaken with local authorities and valuers who provide the valuations on which purchase prices for local authority houses under the Right to Buy are based, this paper reports on research which aims to establish the reasons for the differences between the initial valuations provided by the local authority valuers and those provided by the District Valuer on appeal. The paper reports on the reasons why tenants appeal the initial valuation and discusses issues of valuation accuracy, uncertainty and the different and imperfect data available to valuers employed by the organisations involved, as well as the factors within the valuation process, including the absence of any requirement to agree a value, which contribute to the different outcomes.

Classification of cortical microcircuits based on micro-electrode-array data from slices of rat barrel cortex

The bewildering complexity of cortical microcircuits at the single cell level gives rise to surprisingly robust emergent activity patterns at the level of laminar and columnar local field potentials (LFPs) in response to targeted local stimuli. Here we report the results of our multivariate data-analytic approach based on simultaneous multi-site recordings using micro-electrode-array chips for investigation of the microcircuitary of rat somatosensory (barrel) cortex. We find high repeatability of stimulus-induced responses, and typical spatial distributions of LFP responses to stimuli in supragranular, granular, and infragranular layers, where the last form a particularly distinct class. Population spikes appear to travel with about 33 cm/s from granular to infragranular layers. Responses within barrel related columns have different profiles than those in neighbouring columns to the left or interchangeably to the right. Variations between slices occur, but can be minimized by strictly obeying controlled experimental protocols. Cluster analysis on normalized recordings indicates specific spatial distributions of time series reflecting the location of sources and sinks independent of the stimulus layer. Although the precise correspondences between single cell activity and LFPs are still far from clear, a sophisticated neuroinformatics approach in combination with multi-site LFP recordings in the standardized slice preparation is suitable for comparing normal conditions to genetically or pharmacologically altered situations based on real cortical microcircuitry.

The potential of 1 h refractivity changes from an operational C-band magnetron-based radar for numerical weather prediction validation and data assimilation

Refractivity changes (ΔN) derived from radar ground clutter returns serve as a proxy for near-surface humidity changes (1 N unit ≡ 1% relative humidity at 20 °C). Previous studies have indicated that better humidity observations should improve forecasts of convection initiation. A preliminary assessment of the potential of refractivity retrievals from an operational magnetron-based C-band radar is presented. The increased phase noise at shorter wavelengths, exacerbated by the unknown position of the target within the 300 m gate, make it difficult to obtain absolute refractivity values, so we consider the information in 1 h changes. These have been derived to a range of 30 km with a spatial resolution of ∼4 km; the consistency of the individual estimates (within each 4 km × 4 km area) indicates that ΔN errors are about 1 N unit, in agreement with in situ observations. Measurements from an instrumented tower on summer days show that the 1 h refractivity changes up to a height of 100 m remain well correlated with near-surface values. The analysis of refractivity as represented in the operational Met Office Unified Model at 1.5, 4 and 12 km grid lengths demonstrates that, as model resolution increases, the spatial scales of the refractivity structures improve. It is shown that the magnitude of refractivity changes is progressively underestimated at larger grid lengths during summer. However, the daily time series of 1 h refractivity changes reveal that, whereas the radar-derived values are very well correlated with the in situ observations, the high-resolution model runs have little skill in getting the right values of ΔN in the right place at the right time. This suggests that the assimilation of these radar refractivity observations could benefit forecasts of the initiation of convection.

Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.

Predictors of Right Ventricle Dysfunction After Anterior Myocardial Infarction

Background: Regardless significant therapeutic advances, mortality and morbidity after myocardial infarction (MI) are still high. For a long time, the importance of right ventricle (RV) function has been neglected. Recently, RV dysfunction has also been associated with poor outcomes in the setting of heart failure. The shape, location, and contraction conditions make the RV chamber assessment technically challenging.Methods: Our study identified clinical characteristics and left ventricle (LV) echocardiographic data performed 3-5 days after MI that could be associated with RV dysfunction (RV fractional area change [FAC] < 35%) 6 months after MI.Results: The RV dysfunction group consisted of 11 patients (RV FAC 29.4% +/- 5.2) and the no RV dysfunction group of 71 patients (RV FAC 43.7% +/- 5.1); (P < 0.001). Both groups presented the same baseline clinical characteristics. Left atrium (LA), interventricular septum (IVS), and left ventricular posterior wall (LVPW) were larger in RV dysfunction than in no RV dysfunction. Conversely, E wave deceleration time (EDT) was lower in RV dysfunction when compared with no RV dysfunction. Left atrium(adj) (adjusted by gender, age, infarct size, and body mass index) (odds ratio [OR], 1.22; confidence interval [CI], 1.016-1.47; P = 0.032), interventricular septum(adj) (OR, 1.49; CI, 1.01-2.23; P = 0.044), and E wave deceleration time(adj) (OR, 0.98; CI, 0.97-0.98; P = 0.029) assessed soon after MI predicted RV failure after 6-months.Conclusions: LV diastolic dysfunction, resulting from anterior MI and assessed 3-5 days after the event, may play an important role in predicting RV dysfunction 6 months later.

A Generalized Log-Normal Model for Grouped Survival Data

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

New morphological data on fat bodies of semi-engorged females of Amblyomma cajennense (Acari : Ixodidae)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

The unequal influences of the left and right vagi on the control of the heart and pulmonary artery in the rattlesnake, Crotalus durissus

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Search for right-handed W bosons in top quark decay

We present a measurement of the fraction f(+) of right-handed W bosons produced in top quark decays, based on a candidate sample of t (t) over bar events in the lepton+jets decay mode. These data correspond to an integrated luminosity of 230 pb(-1), collected by the D0 detector at the Fermilab Tevatron p (p) over bar Collider at root s=1.96 TeV. We use a constrained fit to reconstruct the kinematics of the t (t) over bar and decay products, which allows for the measurement of the leptonic decay angle theta(*) for each event. By comparing the cos theta(*) distribution from the data with those for the expected background and signal for various values of f(+), we find f(+)=0.00 +/- 0.13(stat)+/- 0.07(syst). This measurement is consistent with the standard model prediction of f(+)=3.6 x 10(-4).

Measurement of the W boson helicity in top quark decays using 5.4 fb(-1) of p(p)over-bar collision data

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Right-to-left shunt determination in dog lungs under inhalation anesthesia with rebreathing and non-rebreathing system

OBJETIVO: Comparar a formação de shunt venoso-arterial em pulmões de cães submetidos a anestesia geral inalatória utilizando-se sistemas de anestesia com e sem reinalação, com fração inspirada de oxigênio de 0,4 e 0,9, respectivamente. MÉTODOS: Empregaram-se 20 cães induzidos com tiopental sódico (30mg/kg) e mantidos com sevoflurano (3%) e alocados em dois grupos (n=10); os animais de GI foram ventilados com modalidade controlada em sistema semifechado, sem reinalação, F I O2 = 0,9, e os de GII, com modalidade controlada, sistema semifechado, com reinalação e F I O2 = 0,4. Os atributos analisados durante o experimento foram: freqüência cardíaca, pressão arterial média, shunt pulmonar venoso-arterial, hematócrito, hemoglobina, pressão parcial de oxigênio arterial, pressão parcial de oxigênio no sangue venoso misto, saturação de oxigênio no sangue venoso misto, pressão parcial de dióxido de carbono arterial e pressão de vapor de água nos alvéolos (P VA). RESULTADOS: A P VA foi significativamente maior em GII. A análise estatística dos valores encontrados de shunt mostrou que GI e GII apresentaram diferenças significativas, sendo que os resultados de GI são maiores que os de GII em todos os momentos avaliados. Já a análise de momentos dentro de um mesmo grupo não demonstrou diferenças. CONCLUSÃO: O sistema de anestesia sem reinalação com F I O2 = 0,9 desenvolveu maior grau de shunt pulmonar venoso-arterial que o sistema de anestesia com reinalação e F I O2 = 0,4. A umidificação dos gases em GII contribuiu para diminuir o shunt.

Sino-aortic denervation causes right atrial beta adrenoceptor down-regulation

Rat isolated right atria obtained 1 wk after sinoaortic denervation were less sensitive to the chronotropic actions of beta-agonists than were tissues obtained from animals that underwent sham surgery or no surgery at all. The potencies, but not the maximal responses for two high efficacy agonists, norepinephrine and isoproterenol, were reduced about 3- to 4-fold. Sinoaortic denervation (SAD) caused about a 3-fold decrease in potency and about a 60% decrease in maximal response for a low efficacy agonist, prenalterol. The changes in the actions of these agonists occurred in the absence of any changes in the subtype of beta receptor mediating the chronotropic response. The results of analyses of the data for prenalterol showed that SAD caused a decrease in the operational efficacy of this agonist without any changes in its K-D value for beta-1 adrenoceptors. SAD had no effect on the responses of the tissue to blockade of uptake 1 and uptake 2, suggesting no compensatory changes in the removal processes caused the decreased potency. The results of radioligand binding assays showed that SAD caused a decrease in the maximal binding of I-125-cyanopindolol without altering its K-D. Also, the results of competition binding assays confirmed the lack of effect of SAD on the K-D for prenalterol. The SAD-induced changes in the actions of agonists acting at right atrial beta-1 receptors were caused by a down-regulation of beta-1 adrenoceptors, which probably occurred in response to SAD-induced increases in sympathetic tone.

Millennium development goals: progress towards the right to health in Latin america and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

The production of statistical data and information in the Caribbean: proposals for increasing efficiency in this sphere

Includes bibliography