A nonlinear model for assessing multiple probabilistic risks: A case study in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve in China

Several methods for estimating the potential impacts caused by multiple probabilistic risks have been suggested. These existing methods mostly rely on the weight sum algorithm to address the need for integrated risk assessment. This paper develops a nonlinear model to perform such an assessment. The joint probability algorithm has been applied to the model development. An application of the developed model in South five-island of Changdao National Nature Reserve, China, combining remote sensing data and a GIS technique, provides a reasonable risk assessment. Based on the case study, we discuss the feasibility of the model. We propose that the model has the potential for use in identifying the regional primary stressor, investigating the most vulnerable habitat, and assessing the integrated impact of multiple stressors. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ocean urea fertilization for carbon credits poses high ecological risks

The proposed plan for enrichment of the Sulu Sea, Philippines, a region of rich marine biodiversity, with thousands of tonnes of urea in order to stimulate algal blooms and sequester carbon is flawed for multiple reasons. Urea is preferentially used as a nitrogen source by some cyanobacteria and dinoflagellates, many of which are neutrally or positively buoyant. Biological pumps to the deep sea are classically leaky, and the inefficient burial of new biomass makes the estimation of a net loss of carbon from the atmosphere questionable at best. The potential for growth of toxic dinoflagellates is also high, as many grow well on urea and some even increase their toxicity when grown on urea. Many toxic dinoflagellates form cysts which can settle to the sediment and germinate in subsequent years, forming new blooms even without further fertilization. If large-scale blooms do occur, it is likely that they will contribute to hypoxia in the bottom waters upon decomposition. Lastly, urea production requires fossil fuel usage, further limiting the potential for net carbon sequestration. The environmental and economic impacts are potentially great and need to be rigorously assessed. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Workplace sedentary health risks and exercise interventions

Sedentary lifestyle and physical inactivity are causes of major health risks including cardiovascular disease (CVD), diabetes and cancer. Workplace is an ideal setting to understand both the prevalence of these risks and for devising and implementing effective intervention strategies. It is now possible to perform direct workplace assessments to identify the sedentary prevalence and assess the sedentary related health risks, which can include assessing the risks of atherosclerosis, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, hyperglyaemia and reduced cardiorespiratory capacity. Based on evaluating the workplace health risks, it is possible to identify individuals who may be at higher CVD risk so they can be targeted with a risk-reduction intervention that can also be tailored towards improving healthy behaviours, especially towards physical activity activity and exercise. This chapter explains workplace sedentary risks, and provides examples of CVD risk prevalence, particularly within the university campus workplace, and presents examples of an exercise based targeted interventions aimed at reducing CVD risks amongst high risk sedentary employees.

Polymorphisms in the ACE and ADRB2 genes and risks of aging-associated phenotypes: the case of myocardial infarction.

Multiple functions of the beta2-adrenergic receptor (ADRB2) and angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) genes warrant studies of their associations with aging-related phenotypes. We focus on multimarker analyses and analyses of the effects of compound genotypes of two polymorphisms in the ADRB2 gene, rs1042713 and rs1042714, and 11 polymorphisms of the ACE gene, on the risk of such an aging-associated phenotype as myocardial infarction (MI). We used the data from a genotyped sample of the Framingham Heart Study Offspring (FHSO) cohort (n = 1500) followed for about 36 years with six examinations. The ADRB2 rs1042714 (C-->G) polymorphism and two moderately correlated (r(2) = 0.77) ACE polymorphisms, rs4363 (A-->G) and rs12449782 (A-->G), were significantly associated with risks of MI in this aging cohort in multimarker models. Predominantly linked ACE genotypes exhibited opposite effects on MI risks, e.g., the AA (rs12449782) genotype had a detrimental effect, whereas the predominantly linked AA (rs4363) genotype exhibited a protective effect. This trade-off occurs as a result of the opposite effects of rare compound genotypes of the ACE polymorphisms with a single dose of the AG heterozygote. This genetic trade-off is further augmented by the selective modulating effect of the rs1042714 ADRB2 polymorphism. The associations were not altered by adjustment for common MI risk factors. The results suggest that effects of single specific genetic variants of the ADRB2 and ACE genes on MI can be readily altered by gene-gene or/and gene-environmental interactions, especially in large heterogeneous samples. Multimarker genetic analyses should benefit studies of complex aging-associated phenotypes.

Postoperative statin use and risk of biochemical recurrence following radical prostatectomy: results from the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital (SEARCH) database.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effect of statin use after radical prostatectomy (RP) on biochemical recurrence (BCR) in patients with prostate cancer who never received statins before RP. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 1146 RP patients within the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital (SEARCH) database. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to examine differences in risk of BCR between post-RP statin users vs nonusers. To account for varying start dates and duration of statin use during follow-up, post-RP statin use was treated as a time-dependent variable. In a secondary analysis, models were stratified by race to examine the association of post-RP statin use with BCR among black and non-black men. RESULTS: After adjusting for clinical and pathological characteristics, post-RP statin use was significantly associated with 36% reduced risk of BCR (hazard ratio [HR] 0.64, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.47-0.87; P = 0.004). Post-RP statin use remained associated with reduced risk of BCR after adjusting for preoperative serum cholesterol levels. In secondary analysis, after stratification by race, this protective association was significant in non-black (HR 0.49, 95% CI 0.32-0.75; P = 0.001) but not black men (HR 0.82, 95% CI 0.53-1.28; P = 0.384). CONCLUSION: In this retrospective cohort of men undergoing RP, post-RP statin use was significantly associated with reduced risk of BCR. Whether the association between post-RP statin use and BCR differs by race requires further study. Given these findings, coupled with other studies suggesting that statins may reduce risk of advanced prostate cancer, randomised controlled trials are warranted to formally test the hypothesis that statins slow prostate cancer progression.

Percent body fat more associated with perioperative risks after total joint arthroplasty than body mass index

Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.Understanding the impact of obesity on elective total joint arthroplasty (TJA) remains critical. Perioperative outcomes were reviewed in 316 patients undergoing primary TJA. Higher percent body fat (PBF) was associated with postoperative blood transfusion, increased hospital length of stay (LOS) >3 days, and discharge to an extended care facility while no significant differences existed for BMI. Additionally, PBF of 43.5 was associated with a 2.4× greater likelihood of blood transfusion, PBF of 36.5 with a 1.9× greater likelihood for LOS >3 days, and PBF of 36.0 with a 1.4× greater likelihood for discharge to an extended care facility. PBF may be a more effective measure than BMI to use in screening for perioperative risks and acute outcomes associated with obese total joint patients.

Genetic variants in the TEP1 gene are associated with prostate cancer risk and recurrence.

BACKGROUND: Telomere-related genes play an important role in carcinogenesis and progression of prostate cancer (PCa). It is not fully understood whether genetic variations in telomere-related genes are associated with development and progression in PCa patients. METHODS: Six potentially functional single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of three key telomere-related genes were evaluated in 1015 PCa cases and 1052 cancer-free controls, to test their associations with risk of PCa. Among 426 PCa patients who underwent radical prostatectomy (RP), the prognostic significance of the studied SNPs on biochemical recurrence (BCR) was also assessed using the Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazards regression model. The relative telomere lengths (RTLs) were measured in peripheral blood leukocytes using real-time PCR in the RP patients. RESULTS: TEP1 rs1760904 AG/AA genotypes were significantly associated with a decreased risk of PCa (odds ratio (OR): 0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.64-0.93, P=0.005) compared with the GG genotype. By using median RTL as a cutoff level, RP patients with TEP1 rs1760904 AG/AA genotypes tended to have a longer RTL than those with the GG genotype (OR: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.04-2.30, P=0.031). A significant interaction between TEP1 rs1713418 and age in modifying PCa risk was observed (P=0.005). After adjustment for clinicopathologic risk factors, the presence of heterozygotes or rare homozygotes of TEP1 rs1760904 and TNKS2 rs1539042 were associated with BCR in the RP cohorts (hazard ratio: 0.53, 95% CI: 0.36-0.79, P=0.002 and hazard ratio: 1.67, 95% CI: 1.07-2.48, P=0.017, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that genetic variations in the TEP1 gene may be biomarkers for risk of PCa and BCR after RP.

Apoptotic variants as predictors of risk of oropharyngeal cancer recurrence after definitive radiotherapy.

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the promoter region of FAS and FASLG may alter their transcriptional activity. Thus, we determined the associations between four FAS and FASLG promoter variants (FAS1377G>A, rs2234767; 670A>G, rs1800682; FASLG844T>C, rs763110 and 124A>G, rs5030772) and the risk of recurrence of squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx (SCCOP). We evaluated the associations between FAS and FASLG genetic variants and the risk of recurrence in a cohort of 1,008 patients. The log-rank test and multivariate Cox models were used to evaluate the associations. Compared with patients with common homozygous genotypes of FAS670 and FASLG844 polymorphisms, patients with variant genotypes had lower disease-free survival rates (log-rank p < 0.0001 and p < 0.0001, respectively) and an approximately threefold higher risk of SCCOP recurrence (HR, 3.2;95% CI, 2.2-4.6; and HR, 3.1; 95% CI, 2.2-4.4, respectively) after multivariate adjustment. Furthermore, among patients with HPV16-positive tumors, those with variant genotypes of these two polymorphisms had lower disease-free survival rates (log-rank, p < 0.0001 and p < 0.0001, respectively) and a higher recurrence risk than did patients with common homozygous genotypes (HR, 12.9; 95% CI, 3.8-43.6; and HR, 8.1; 95% CI, 3.6-18.6, respectively), whereas no significant associations were found for FAS1377 and FASLG124 polymorphisms. Our findings suggest that FAS670 and FASLG844 polymorphisms modulate the risk of recurrence of SCCOP, particularly in patients with HPV16-positive tumors. Larger studies are needed to validate these results.

Existence, recurrence and equilibrium properties of Markov branching processes with instantaneous immigration

Attention has recently focussed on stochastic population processes that can undergo total annihilation followed by immigration into state j at rate αj. The investigation of such models, called Markov branching processes with instantaneous immigration (MBPII), involves the study of existence and recurrence properties. However, results developed to date are generally opaque, and so the primary motivation of this paper is to construct conditions that are far easier to apply in practice. These turn out to be identical to the conditions for positive recurrence, which are very easy to check. We obtain, as a consequence, the surprising result that any MBPII that exists is ergodic, and so must possess an equilibrium distribution. These results are then extended to more general MBPII, and we show how to construct the associated equilibrium distributions.

Parallel implementation of the recurrence method for computing the power-spectral density of thin avalanche photodiodes

A simulation program has been developed to calculate the power-spectral density of thin avalanche photodiodes, which are used in optical networks. The program extends the time-domain analysis of the dead-space multiplication model to compute the autocorrelation function of the APD impulse response. However, the computation requires a large amount of memory space and is very time consuming. We describe our experiences in parallelizing the code using both MPI and OpenMP. Several array partitioning schemes and scheduling policies are implemented and tested Our results show that the OpenMP code is scalable up to 64 processors on an SGI Origin 2000 machine and has small average errors.

Areva and EDF: business prospects and risks in nuclear energy

This report examines the financial position of EDF and Areva and analyses what the impact of their nuclear ambitions will be on this.

ENEL: business prospects and risks in nuclear energy

This report examines the level of debt of ENEL and how that will be impacted by its plans for new nuclear power plants.