Prospecção do futuro nas empresas: uma proposta de modelo para integração entre o estudo do futuro e a estratégia empresarial

Esta tese buscou estudar a integração entre a prospecção do futuro e projetos dentro do escopo da estratégia. Decisões envolvendo projetos no âmbito da estratégia das organizações são para horizontes de tempo de médio ou longo prazo. Nessa situação, gestores precisam lidar com incertezas de futuro, e para isso podem recorrer às metodologias de prospecção do futuro. O estudo do futuro é atividade complexa, pela abrangência de temas a serem considerados, contudo, é provável que gestores pratiquem essa atividade devido à responsabilidade assumida por suas decisões. A prática de metodologia prospectiva gera resultados, e estes podem contribuir nas decisões em projetos estratégicos. A literatura de estudos do futuro contém recomendações sobre como praticar metodologia prospectiva, porém aborda menos a utilização dos resultados de estudos prospectivos e a sua contribuição para a estratégia empresarial. Ela se concentra mais nos processos de desenvolvimento dos projetos de prospecção para se chegar aos resultados. Dessa forma, esta tese visou ao estudo da utilização dos resultados da prospecção nas decisões de projetos no âmbito da estratégia empresarial. Os fenômenos estudados envolvem a transição entre a prática da prospecção do futuro, a consequente disponibilidade de seus resultados e a contribuição dos mesmos nos processos de análise prospectiva para suporte a decisões. O objetivo geral da tese é a proposta de um modelo que contribua nessa transição. A metodologia utilizada foi mista - quantitativa e qualitativa - desenvolvida por meio de survey e entrevistas, e a abordagem utilizada foi exploratória e descritiva. Os resultados indicam haver limitações na integração entre prospecção do futuro e estratégia empresarial. Foi identificado que a prospecção do futuro é considerada importante pelos gestores participantes da pesquisa. Em contraste, a transição para a sua prática, passando pela disponibilidade de seus resultados, e a posterior utilização deles em processos de suporte à tomada de decisões em projetos estratégicos, apresenta limitações. Os resultados indicam que, apesar da importância da atividade de prospecção, gestores avaliam que ela é praticada em um nível mais baixo, e ao final a contribuição de seus resultados é avaliada em nível ainda mais baixo. Isso é mais evidente nas empresas de menor quantidade de funcionários, menor faturamento, de capital fechado ou limitado, sendo que nessas empresas a prospecção é para horizonte de tempo mais curto. Já gestores de empresas com maior quantidade de funcionários, maior faturamento e de capital aberto lidam melhor com a prospecção do futuro, sendo que estudam seus projetos estratégicos em horizonte de tempo mais longo. Observou-se que as principais limitações identificadas estão relacionadas com o conhecimento das metodologias de prospecção do futuro, e isso limita principalmente a identificação de temas importantes a serem estudados e monitorados acerca do futuro, configurando-se como lacunas de análise prospectiva ou pontos cegos. Por decorrência disso, a contribuição da prospecção na estratégia empresarial sofre limitações. Conclui-se, portanto, que a integração entre prospecção do futuro e a estratégia empresarial poderia ser facilitada por meio do uso de um modelo de suporte, voltado para: (1) reduzir a possibilidade de lacunas de análise prospectiva; e (2) suportar a avaliação: da prática da prospecção do futuro, do uso dos seus resultados nas decisões, e finalmente da aplicação da expertise sobre prospecção do futuro na empresa. Os resultados confirmam que o modelo proposto contribuiria na integração da prospecção do futuro com a estratégia empresarial.

O objetivo constitucional de desenvolvimento e o instrumento jurídico-normativo do conteúdo local na indústria petrolífera

On the petroleum industry, the State developed the Local Content police as a regulatory action to guarantee the preference of the national supply industry. Observing that, this paper will analyze the Local Content police aware of the constitutional goal of development as wright in the Constituição Federal de 1988. For it, will be used the hypothetical-deductive method for identifying the Local Content police as State strategy of development turn it in the object of critics in a dialectic way of thinking to in the final, present a conclusion about the police. As result was saw that the existent structure of the police at Brazil is inefficient, claiming for a rebuilt. For conclusion, is said that because of the inadequate construction of the Local Content police created inside of the Agência Nacional do Petróleo – ANP, the efficiency of the full potential of the police is been stopped, something that can be only corrected although a re-make of the police

Prospecção tecnológica para geração de energia eólica

The acceleration of technological change and the process of globalization has intensified competition and the need for new products (goods and services), resulting in growing concern for organizations in the development of technological, economic and social advances. This work presents an overview of the development of wind energy-related technologies and design trends. To conduct this research, it is (i) a literature review on technological innovation, technological forecasting methods and fundamentals of wind power; (ii) the analysis of patents, with the current technology landscape studied by means of finding information in patent databases; and (iii) the preparation of the map of technological development and construction of wind turbines of the future trend information from the literature and news from the sector studied. Step (ii) allowed the study of 25 644 patents between the years 2003-2012, in which the US and China lead the ranking of depositors and the American company General Electric and the Japanese Mitsubishi stand as the largest holder of wind technology. Step (iii) analyzed and identified that most of the innovations presented in the technological evolution of wind power are incremental product innovations to market. The proposed future trends shows that the future wind turbines tend to have a horizontal synchronous shaft, which with the highest diameter of 194m and 164m rotor nacelle top, the top having 7,5MW generation. The materials used for the blades are new materials with characteristics of low density and high strength. The towers are trend with hybrid materials, uniting the steel to the concrete. This work tries to cover the existing gap in the gym on the use of technological forecasting techniques for the wind energy industry, through the recognition that utilize the patent analysis, analysis of scientific articles and stories of the area, provide knowledge about the industry and influencing the quality of investment decisions in R & D and hence improves the efficiency and effectiveness of wind power generation

Avaliação da variação sedimentológica em uma área da plataforma continental sob a atuação da indústria petrolífera

Petroleum exploration activity occurs on the offshore Potiguar Basin, from very shallow (2-3 m) until about 50 m water depth, extending from Alto de Touros (RN) to Alto de Fortaleza (CE). Take in account the biological importance and the heterogeneity of sediments on this area, it is necessary the understanding of the sedimentological dynamics, and mainly the changes generated by petroleum exploration to prevent possible damages to environment. Despite the intense activity of oil exploration in this area, research projects like these are still rare. In view to minimize this gap, this study was developed to evaluate sedimentological, mineralogical and geochemical changes in the vicinity of a exploration well, here designated as well A, located on the Middle continental shelf, near the transition to Outer shelf. The well selected for this study was the first one drilled with Riserless Mud Recovery technology (RMR) in Brazil. The main difference from this to the conventional method is the possibility of drilling phase I of the well with return of drilling material to the rig tank, minimizing fluid and gravel discharging around the vicinity, during this phase. Monitoring consisted of three surveys, first of them done before start drilling, the second one done 19 days after the end of drilling and the third one done one year after then. Comparison of the studied variables (calcium carbonate and organic matter content, sediment size, mineralogy and geochemistry) was done with their average, median and coefficient of variation values to understand the changes after drilling activity. Because operating company technical reasons, the well location was changed after the first survey (C1), resulting in a shift of the sampled area on the two last surveys (C2 e C3). Nevertheless, the acquired data presented a good correlation, with no loss to the mean goal of the study. The sedimentological, mineralogical and geochemical analyzes were done at Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN). The results indicated a predominantly sandy environment along the three surveys. It was noticed that the first survey (C1), presented different values for all the studied variables than to the second (C2) and third (C3) surveys, which had similar values. Siliciclastic sediments are prevalent at all surveys, and quartz is the main component (more than 80%). Heavy minerals (garnet, turmaline, zircon and lmenite), rock fragments and mud aggregates also was described. Bioclastic sediments are dominated by coralline algae (more than 45%) and mollusks (more than 30%), followed by benthic foraminifera, bryozoans and worm tubes. More rarely was observed ostracoda and spike of calcareous sponge. Because the low changes of the sediments at the studied area and by the using of RMR method in the drilling, it was possible to conclude that drilling activity did not promote significant alteration on the local sediment cover. Changes in the studied variables before and after drilling activity could be influenced by the changing in the sampling area after survey 1 (C1).

Prospecção tecnológica de células fotovoltaicas para energia solar

Solar energy presents itself as an excellent alternative for the generation of clean, renewable energy. This work aims to identify technological trends of photovoltaic cells for solar energy. The research is characterized, in relation to nature, to be applied; regarding the approach is qualitative and quantitative; with respect to the objectives, it is exploratory and descriptive; concerning the methodological procedure is considered a bibliographic research with a case study in the case of solar photovoltaic sector. The development of this research began with a literature review on photovoltaic solar energy and technology foresight. Then it led to the technology mapping of photovoltaic solar cells through the analysis of articles and patents. It was later performed the technological prospecting of photovoltaic cells for solar energy through the Delphi method, as well as the construction of the current plan and future technology of photovoltaic cells for the current scenario, 2020 and 2025. The results of this research show that the considered mature technologies (silicon mono and multicrystalline) will continue to be commercially viable within the prospected period (2020-2025). Other technologies that are currently viable (amorphous silicon, cadmium telluride and copper indium selenide / Copper indium gallium diselenide-), may not submit the same condition in 2025. Since the cells of silicon nanowires, dye-sensitized and based on carbon nanostructure, which nowadays are not commercially viable, may be part of the future map of photovoltaic technologies for solar energy.

Extração, caracterização e prospecção de atividades farmacológicas de polissacarídeos sulfatados da macroalga verde Caulerpa prolifera

This study aimed to extract, characterize and conduct a prospective analysis of pharmacological activities of sulfated polysaccharides from green seaweed Caulerpa prolifera. Seven fractions (CP-0.3/CP-0.5/CP-0.7/CP-0.9/CP-1.1/CP-1.5/CP-2.0) were obtained from C. prolifera by alkaline proteolysis followed by sequential precipitation in acetone. The physicochemical analyzes indicated that C. prolifera synthesizes a homogalactan (CP-0.9) and different populations of sulfated heteropolysaccharides. In the analysis of anticoagulant activity, all fractions except CP-0.3, influenced the intrinsic coagulation pathway. All fractions showed antioxidant activity in six different assays being more pronounced in hydrogen peroxide scavenging assay, especially CP-0.3, CP-0.7 and CP-0.9 (which obtained 61% of hydrogen peroxide scavenging), in ferric chelation assay (especially CP-0.9 with 56% chelation) and cupric chelation assay (especially CP-2.0 with 78% chelation). With respect to immunomodulatory activity, the presence of CP-0.3, CP-0.7 and CP-0.9 showed an immunogenic potential, increasing the production of nitric oxide (NO) by 48, 142 and 163 times, respectively. Conversely, the NO synthesis fell 73% after the activation of macrophages by LPS, incubated concurrently with CP-2.0. The anti-adipogenic activity of the fractions was also evaluated and CP-1.5 was able to reduce the differentiation of pre-adipocytes (3T3-L1) into adipocytes by 60%, without affecting the cell viability. The fractions CP-0.3, CP-0.5 and CP-0.9 reduced the viability of the HeLa cells (human cervical adenocarcinoma) by 55% and CP-1.5 reduced the viability of the 786-0 cells (human renal adenocarcinoma) by 75%. Leishmanicidal activity and microbicide effect against Carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (KPC) have not been identified. However, the viability of Staphylococcus epidermidis was reduced by 23.8% in the presence of CP -1.5. All fractions were able to change the formation of calcium oxalate crystals. CP-0.3, CP-0.5 and CP-1.1 only promoted the formation of COD type crystals with a very small size (1 μm). Confocal microscopy and zeta potential data of crystals formed in the presence of the samples showed that the polysaccharides present in the fractions must interact with calcium ions present throughout the crystal lattice, affecting the growth and morphology of crystals The results described herein indicate that the fractions rich in polysaccharides obtained from the green seaweed C. prolifera present a multi therapeutic potential, and subsequent purification steps, as well as research on the mechanisms of action by which these polymers act should be investigated.

Prospecção química e avaliação biológica de Banisteriopsis laevifolia (Malpighiaceae)

The Banisteriopsis genus is widespread in traditional medicine. This work aims to contribute with information about the chemical composition and on the evaluation of the biological activity of the essential oil, the ethanol extract of the leaves and partitions of the Banisteriopsis laevifolia. The phytochemical screeningtest of ethanol extract and partitions of leaves indicated the presence of flavonoids, terpenoids, saponins, phenols and steroids compounds. Nitrogenous compounds, characteristic of some species of this family, were not detected. Flavonoids were the predominant metabolite, with the highest concentrations on the partitions ethyl acetate and n-butanol. The antibacterial activity, antifungal and cytotoxicity of the essetial oil, ethanol extract and partitions were assyed by microdilution broth method (MBM), where the minimum inhibitory concentrations (MIC) were calculated. The ethanol extract and partitions did not inhibit growth against to Gram positive bacteria tested, with MIC less than 400 mg L-1. For the Gram negative bacteria tested, the hexane and hydroethanol partitios were more effective against F. nucleatum bacteria (MIC 100 ug mL-1). The ethanol extract showed antifungal activity with MIC of 31.2 mg L-1. Ethyl acetate and n-butanol partitions showed MIC 187.5 mg L-1 and 93.7 mg L-1, respectively, arousing interest for isolation studies. The antioxidant activity was evaluated by the DPPH free radical method. The ethanolic extract, ethyl acetate and n-butanol partitions were active, since they showed EC50 values (4.53 ug mL-1, 4.07 and 8.39 ug mL-1, respectively), values equivalent to the BHT (7.3 mg L-1). The analysis by HPLC-MS/MS of the most active fractions (ethyl acetate and n-butanol) identified phenolic compounds (flavonols and phenolic acids) which exert recognized biological activity. The GC-MS analysis of the essential oils from leaves collected in two periods studied (dry and wet), showed a small variation in the number of compounds. The major classes identified for the oil collected in the dry period were aliphatic alcohols (23,4%), terpenoids (18.7%), sterols (10.4%) and long-chain alkanes (9.2%) compounds. Terpenoids (26.8%) were the major class for the rain season. The major compounds (3Z) -hexenol, phytol and untriacontano are present in the two seasons but in different amounts (19.4%, 9.8% and 7.5% during the dry season, and 17.0 %, 14.9% and 15.3% in the rainy season, respectively). The essential oil from rainy season was not effective against to the oral bacteria Gram positive and Gram negative tested. However, showed significant antifungal activity with MIC 1000 mg L-1 against Candidas. Thus, the promising results with respect to biological assays of ethanolic extract and partitions from B. laevifolia contributed to the chemical and biological knowledge of the species B. laevifolia.