Patients with community acquired pneumonia admitted to European intensive care units: an epidemiological survey of the GenOSept cohort.

INTRODUCTION Community acquired pneumonia (CAP) is the most common infectious reason for admission to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). The GenOSept study was designed to determine genetic influences on sepsis outcome. Phenotypic data was recorded using a robust clinical database allowing a contemporary analysis of the clinical characteristics, microbiology, outcomes and independent risk factors in patients with severe CAP admitted to ICUs across Europe. METHODS Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to determine mortality rates. A Cox Proportional Hazards (PH) model was used to identify variables independently associated with 28-day and six-month mortality. RESULTS Data from 1166 patients admitted to 102 centres across 17 countries was extracted. Median age was 64 years, 62% were male. Mortality rate at 28 days was 17%, rising to 27% at six months. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the commonest organism isolated (28% of cases) with no organism identified in 36%. Independent risk factors associated with an increased risk of death at six months included APACHE II score (hazard ratio, HR, 1.03; confidence interval, CI, 1.01-1.05), bilateral pulmonary infiltrates (HR1.44; CI 1.11-1.87) and ventilator support (HR 3.04; CI 1.64-5.62). Haematocrit, pH and urine volume on day one were all associated with a worse outcome. CONCLUSIONS The mortality rate in patients with severe CAP admitted to European ICUs was 27% at six months. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the commonest organism isolated. In many cases the infecting organism was not identified. Ventilator support, the presence of diffuse pulmonary infiltrates, lower haematocrit, urine volume and pH on admission were independent predictors of a worse outcome.

Assessing efficacy of different nucleos(t)ide backbones in NNRTI-containing regimens in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND The most recommended NRTI combinations as first-line antiretroviral treatment for HIV-1 infection in resource-rich settings are tenofovir/emtricitabine, abacavir/lamivudine, tenofovir/lamivudine and zidovudine/lamivudine. Efficacy studies of these combinations also considering pill numbers, dosing frequencies and ethnicities are rare. METHODS We included patients starting first-line combination ART (cART) with or switching from first-line cART without treatment failure to tenofovir/emtricitabine, abacavir/lamivudine, tenofovir/lamivudine and zidovudine/lamivudine plus efavirenz or nevirapine. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to investigate the effect of the different NRTI combinations on two primary outcomes: virological failure (VF) and emergence of NRTI resistance. Additionally, we performed a pill burden analysis and adjusted the model for pill number and dosing frequency. RESULTS Failure events per treated patient for the four NRTI combinations were as follows: 19/1858 (tenofovir/emtricitabine), 9/387 (abacavir/lamivudine), 11/344 (tenofovir/lamivudine) and 45/1244 (zidovudine/lamivudine). Compared with tenofovir/emtricitabine, abacavir/lamivudine had an adjusted HR for having VF of 2.01 (95% CI 0.86-4.55), tenofovir/lamivudine 2.89 (1.22-6.88) and zidovudine/lamivudine 2.28 (1.01-5.14), whereas for the emergence of NRTI resistance abacavir/lamivudine had an HR of 1.17 (0.11-12.2), tenofovir/lamivudine 11.3 (2.34-55.3) and zidovudine/lamivudine 4.02 (0.78-20.7). Differences among regimens disappeared when models were additionally adjusted for pill burden. However, non-white patients compared with white patients and higher pill number per day were associated with increased risks of VF and emergence of NRTI resistance: HR of non-white ethnicity for VF was 2.85 (1.64-4.96) and for NRTI resistance 3.54 (1.20-10.4); HR of pill burden for VF was 1.41 (1.01-1.96) and for NRTI resistance 1.72 (0.97-3.02). CONCLUSIONS Although VF and emergence of resistance was very low in the population studied, tenofovir/emtricitabine appears to be superior to abacavir/lamivudine, tenofovir/lamivudine and zidovudine/lamivudine. However, it is unclear whether these differences are due to the substances as such or to an association of tenofovir/emtricitabine regimens with lower pill burden.

Normal Thyroid Function and the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: the Rotterdam Study

CONTEXT Hyperthyroidism is an established risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF), but information concerning the association with variations within the normal range of thyroid function and subgroups at risk is lacking. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to investigate the association between normal thyroid function and AF prospectively and explore potential differential risk patterns. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS From the Rotterdam Study we included 9166 participants ≥ 45 y with TSH and/or free T4 (FT4) measurements and AF assessment (1997-2012 median followup, 6.8 y), with 399 prevalent and 403 incident AF cases. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Outcome measures were 3-fold: 1) hazard ratios (HRs) for the risk of incident AF by Cox proportional-hazards models, 2) 10-year absolute risks taking competing risk of death into account, and 3) discrimination ability of adding FT4 to the CHARGE-AF simple model, an established prediction model for AF. RESULTS Higher FT4 levels were associated with higher risks of AF (HR 1.63, 95% confidence interval, 1.19-2.22), when comparing those in the highest quartile to those in lowest quartile. Absolute 10-year risks increased with higher FT4 in participants ≤ 65 y from 1-9% and from 6-12% in subjects ≥ 65 y. Discrimination of the prediction model improved when adding FT4 to the simple model (c-statistic, 0.722 vs 0.729; P = .039). TSH levels were not associated with AF. CONCLUSIONS There is an increased risk of AF with higher FT4 levels within the normal range, especially in younger subjects. Adding FT4 to the simple model slightly improved discrimination of risk prediction.

Modeling survival and the development of second primary tumors among Hodgkin's disease patients

Hodgkin's disease (HD) is a cancer of the lymphatic system. Survivors of HD face varieties of consequent adverse effects, in which secondary primary tumors (SPT) is one of the most serious consequences. This dissertation is aimed to model time-to-SPT in the presence of death and HD relapses during follow-up.^ The model is designed to handle a mixture phenomenon of SPT and the influence of death. Relapses of HD are adjusted as a covariate. Proportional hazards framework is used to define SPT intensity function, which includes an exponential term to estimate explanatory variables. Death as a competing risk is considered according to different scenarios, depending on which terminal event comes first. Newton-Raphson method is used to estimate the parameter estimates in the end.^ The proposed method is applied to a real data set containing a group of HD patients. Several risk factors for the development of SPT are identified and the findings are noteworthy in the development of healthcare guidelines that may lead to the early detection or prevention of SPT.^

Diabetes genes and risk of prostate cancer in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study

Prostate cancer (PrCa) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality, yet the etiology remains uncertain. Meta-analyses show that PrCa risk is reduced by 16% in men with type 2 diabetes (T2D), but the mechanism is unknown. Recent genome-wide association studies and meta-analyses have found single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that consistently predict T2D risk. We evaluated associations of incident PrCa with 14 T2D SNPs in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. From 1987-2000, there were 397 incident PrCa cases ascertained from state or local cancer registries among 6,642 men (1,560 blacks and 5,082 whites) aged 45-64 years at baseline. Genotypes were determined by TaqMan assay. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association between PrCa and increasing number of T2D risk-raising alleles for individual SNPs and for genetic risk scores (GRS) comprised of the number of T2D risk-raising alleles across SNPs. Two-way gene-gene interactions were evaluated with likelihood ratio tests. Using additive genetic models, the T2D risk-raising allele was associated with significantly reduced risk of PrCa for IGF2BP2 rs4402960 (hazard ratio [HR]=0.79; P=0.07 among blacks only), SLC2A2 rs5400 (race-adjusted HR=0.85; P=0.05) and UCP2 rs660339 (race-adjusted HR=0.84; P=0.02), but significantly increased risk of PrCa for CAPN10 rs3792267 (race-adjusted HR=1.20; P=0.05). No other SNPs were associated with PrCa using an additive genetic model. However, at least one copy of the T2D risk-raising allele for TCF7L2 rs7903146 was associated with reduced PrCa risk using a dominant genetic model (race-adjusted HR=0.79; P=0.03). These results imply that the T2D-PrCa association may be partly due to shared genetic variation, but these results should be verified since multiple tests were performed. When the combined, additive effects of these SNPs were tested using a GRS, there was nearly a 10% reduction in risk of PrCa per T2D risk-raising allele (race-adjusted HR=0.92; P=0.02). SNPs in IGF2BP2, KCNJ11 and SLC2A2 were also involved in multiple synergistic gene-gene interactions on a multiplicative scale. In conclusion, it appears that the T2D-PrCa association may be due, in part, to common genetic variation. Further knowledge of T2D gene-PrCa mechanisms may improve understanding of PrCa etiology and may inform PrCa prevention and treatment.^

Estrogen-induced gene expression and patient survival in high-grade serous carcinoma of the ovary

Background. Assessment of estrogen receptor (ER) expression has inconsistent utility as a prognostic marker in epithelial ovarian carcinoma. In breast and endometrial cancers, the use of estrogen-induced gene panels, rather than ER expression alone, has shown improved prognostic capability. Specifically, over-expression of estrogen-induced genes in these tumors is associated with a better prognosis and signifies estrogen sensitivity that can be exploited with hormone antagonizing agents. It was therefore hypothesized that estrogen-induced gene expression in ovarian carcinoma would successfully predict outcomes and differentiate between tumors of varying estrogen sensitivities. Methods. Two hundred nineteen (219) patients with ovarian cancer who underwent surgery at M. D. Anderson between 2004 and 2007 were identified. Of these, eighty-three (83) patients were selected for inclusion because they had advanced stage, high-grade serous carcinoma of the ovary or peritoneum, had not received neoadjuvant chemotherapy, and had readily available frozen tissue for study. All patients had also received adjuvant treatment with platinum and taxane agents. The expression of seven genes known to be induced by estrogen in the female reproductive tract (EIG121, sFRP1, sFRP4, RALDH2, PR, IGF-1, and ER) was measured using qRT-PCR. Unsupervised cluster analyses of multiple gene permutations were used to categorize patients as high or low estrogen-induced gene expressors. QPCR gene expression results were then compared to ER and PR immunohistochemical (IHC) expression. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate the effects of both individual genes and selected gene clusters on patient survival. Results. Median follow-up time was 38.7 months (range 1-68 months). In a multivariate model, overall survival was predicted by sFRP1 expression (HR 1.10 [1.02-1.19], p=0.01) and EIG121 expression (HR 1.28 [1.10-1.49], p<0.01). A cluster defined by EIG121 and ER was further examined because that combination appeared to reasonably segregate tumors into distinct groups of high and low estrogen-induced gene expressors. Shorter overall survival was associated with high estrogen-induced gene expressors (HR 2.84 [1.11-7.30], p=0.03), even after adjustment for race, age, body mass index, and residual disease at debulking. No difference in IHC ER or PR expression was noted between gene clusters. Conclusion. In sharp contrast to breast and endometrial cancers, high estrogen-induced gene expression predicts shorter overall survival in patients with high-grade serous ovarian carcinoma. An estrogen-induced gene biomarker panel may have utility as prognostic indicator and may be useful to guide management with estrogen antagonists in this population.^

A Bayesian approach to estimating the regression coefficients of a multinomial logit model

A Bayesian approach to estimation of the regression coefficients of a multinominal logit model with ordinal scale response categories is presented. A Monte Carlo method is used to construct the posterior distribution of the link function. The link function is treated as an arbitrary scalar function. Then the Gauss-Markov theorem is used to determine a function of the link which produces a random vector of coefficients. The posterior distribution of the random vector of coefficients is used to estimate the regression coefficients. The method described is referred to as a Bayesian generalized least square (BGLS) analysis. Two cases involving multinominal logit models are described. Case I involves a cumulative logit model and Case II involves a proportional-odds model. All inferences about the coefficients for both cases are described in terms of the posterior distribution of the regression coefficients. The results from the BGLS method are compared to maximum likelihood estimates of the regression coefficients. The BGLS method avoids the nonlinear problems encountered when estimating the regression coefficients of a generalized linear model. The method is not complex or computationally intensive. The BGLS method offers several advantages over Bayesian approaches. ^

Estado nutricional aos 20 anos como fator de risco para incidência precoce de doenças crônicas não transmissíveis entre adultos de 30 a 49 anos

Introdução: O excesso de peso em adultos jovens está associado ao desenvolvimento de doenças crônicas não transmissíveis (DCNT) e à diminuição da qualidade de vida e ao aumento da mortalidade precoce. A transição da adolescência para a fase adulta é o período de maior risco para a incidência da obesidade. Objetivo: Estimar o efeito o índice de massa corpora (IMC) aos 20 anos sobre a incidência de DCNT em adultos brasileiros com idade entre 30 a 49 anos. Métodos: Foram selecionados 12.079 indivíduos de 30 a 49 anos da Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde (PNS), realizada no ano de 2013. O modelo adotado para determinação das DCNT foi aquele proposto pela Organização Mundial de Saúde. A incidência das DCNT (hipertensão, doenças cardiovasculares, diabetes e câncer, entre outras), informada pela data do diagnóstico, foi modelada como função do IMC aos 20 anos. Os indivíduos sem a doença até o presente foram considerados como censura. As estimativas de sobrevida foram calculadas com o método de Kaplan-Meier (KM) para cada uma das doenças, estratificada por sexo e ajustada por escolaridade. A análise dos fatores de risco para as doenças foi feita utilizando-se o modelo de riscos proporcionais de Cox. Resultados: Nas curvas de sobrevida KM, indivíduos com IMC >=25kg/m² apresentaram incidência mais elevada e precoce de DCNT, principalmente hipertensão, diabetes e depressão. A idade mediana para incidência do diabetes em obesos foi de 47 anos para homens e 48 anos para mulheres. A incidência da hipertensão arterial foi 4,2 por mil com sobrevida mediana de 48 e 44 anos em mulheres com excesso de peso e obesidade, respectivamente. Dentre os fatores de risco associados as DCNT, o tabagismo em idade precoce foi associado à incidência de depressão. Conclusão: O excesso de peso em adultos jovens aumenta a incidência precoce de DCNT, com efeitos negativos na qualidade de vida, lazer e produtividade, além de aumentar a demanda por serviços de saúde. Torna-se necessário que a intervenção para redução dessas doenças seja direcionada para o período da infância e adolescência com ações que promovam a redução da exposição desses indivíduos à alimentação de má qualidade e incentivo a prática de atividade, não uso do tabaco e consumo moderado de álcool.

Adaptive designs in the time to event setting: The potential for benefit and risk

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Analysis of Melanoma Onset: Assessing Familial Aggregation by Using Estimating Equations and Fitting Variance Components via Bayesian Random Effects Models

We investigate whether relative contributions of genetic and shared environmental factors are associated with an increased risk in melanoma. Data from the Queensland Familial Melanoma Project comprising 15,907 subjects arising from 1912 families were analyzed to estimate the additive genetic, common and unique environmental contributions to variation in the age at onset of melanoma. Two complementary approaches for analyzing correlated time-to-onset family data were considered: the generalized estimating equations (GEE) method in which one can estimate relationship-specific dependence simultaneously with regression coefficients that describe the average population response to changing covariates; and a subject-specific Bayesian mixed model in which heterogeneity in regression parameters is explicitly modeled and the different components of variation may be estimated directly. The proportional hazards and Weibull models were utilized, as both produce natural frameworks for estimating relative risks while adjusting for simultaneous effects of other covariates. A simple Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for covariate imputation of missing data was used and the actual implementation of the Bayesian model was based on Gibbs sampling using the free ware package BUGS. In addition, we also used a Bayesian model to investigate the relative contribution of genetic and environmental effects on the expression of naevi and freckles, which are known risk factors for melanoma.

Repeated occurrence of basal cell carcinoma of the skin and multifailure survival analysis: Follow-up data from the nambour skin cancer prevention trial

The aim of this study was to apply multifailure survival methods to analyze time to multiple occurrences of basal cell carcinoma (BCC). Data from 4.5 years of follow-up in a randomized controlled trial, the Nambour Skin Cancer Prevention Trial (1992-1996), to evaluate skin cancer prevention were used to assess the influence of sunscreen application on the time to first BCC and the time to subsequent BCCs. Three different approaches of time to ordered multiple events were applied and compared: the Andersen-Gill, Wei-Lin-Weissfeld, and Prentice-Williams-Peterson models. Robust variance estimation approaches were used for all multifailure survival models. Sunscreen treatment was not associated with time to first occurrence of a BCC (hazard ratio = 1.04, 95% confidence interval: 0.79, 1.45). Time to subsequent BCC tumors using the Andersen-Gill model resulted in a lower estimated hazard among the daily sunscreen application group, although statistical significance was not reached (hazard ratio = 0.82, 95% confidence interval: 0.59, 1.15). Similarly, both the Wei-Lin-Weissfeld marginal-hazards and the Prentice-Williams-Peterson gap-time models revealed trends toward a lower risk of subsequent BCC tumors among the sunscreen intervention group. These results demonstrate the importance of conducting multiple-event analysis for recurring events, as risk factors for a single event may differ from those where repeated events are considered.

HDL-C and HDL-C/ApoA-I predict long-term progression of glycemia in established type 2 diabetes

OBJECTIVE: Low HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) and small HDL particle size may directly promote hyperglycemia. We evaluated associations of HDL-C, apolipoprotein A-I (apoA-I), and HDL-C/apoA-I with insulin secretion, insulin resistance, HbA1c, and long-term glycemic deterioration, reflected by initiation of pharmacologic glucose control.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The 5-year Fenofibrate Intervention and Event Lowering in Diabetes (FIELD) study followed 9,795 type 2 diabetic subjects. We calculated baseline associations of fasting HDL-C, apoA-I, and HDL-C/apoA-I with HbA1c and, in those not taking exogenous insulin (n = 8,271), with estimated β-cell function (homeostasis model assessment of β-cell function [HOMA-B]) and insulin resistance (HOMA-IR). Among the 2,608 subjects prescribed lifestyle only, Cox proportional hazards analysis evaluated associations of HDL-C, apoA-I, and HDL-C/apoA-I with subsequent initiation of oral hypoglycemic agents (OHAs) or insulin.

RESULTS: Adjusted for age and sex, baseline HDL-C, apoA-I, and HDL-C/apoA-I were inversely associated with HOMA-IR (r = -0.233, -0.134, and -0.230; all P < 0.001; n = 8,271) but not related to HbA1c (all P > 0.05; n = 9,795). ApoA-I was also inversely associated with HOMA-B (r = -0.063; P = 0.002; n = 8,271) adjusted for age, sex, and HOMA-IR. Prospectively, lower baseline HDL-C and HDL-C/apoA-I levels predicted greater uptake (per 1-SD lower: hazard ratio [HR] 1.13 [CI 1.07-1.19], P < 0.001; and HR 1.16 [CI 1.10-1.23], P < 0.001, respectively) and earlier uptake (median 12.9 and 24.0 months, respectively, for quartile 1 vs. quartile 4; both P < 0.01) of OHAs and insulin, with no difference in HbA1c thresholds for initiation (P = 0.87 and P = 0.81). Controlling for HOMA-IR and triglycerides lessened both associations, but HDL-C/apoA-I remained significant.

CONCLUSIONS: HDL-C, apoA-I, and HDL-C/apoA-I were associated with concurrent insulin resistance but not HbA1c. However, lower HDL-C and HDL-C/apoA-I predicted greater and earlier need for pharmacologic glucose control.

Should I stay or should I go – Factors associated with hospitalization risk among older persons in Sweden

An increasingly older population will most likely lead to greater demands on the health care system, as older age is associated with an increased risk of having acute and chronic conditions. The number of diseases or disabilities is not the only marker of the amount of health care utilized, as persons may seek hospitalization without a disease and/or illness that requires hospital healthcare. Hospitalization may pose a severe risk to older persons, as exposure to the hospital environment may lead to increased risks of iatrogenic disorders, confusion, falls and nosocomial infections, i.e., disorders that may involve unnecessary suffering and lead to serious consequences. Aims: The overall aim of this thesis was to describe and explore individual trajectories of cognitive development in relation to hospitalization and risk factors for hospitalization among older persons living in different accommodations in Sweden and to explore older persons' reasons for being transferred to a hospital. Methods: The study designs were longitudinal, prospective and descriptive, and both quantitative and qualitative methods were used. Specifically, latent growth curve modelling was used to assess the association of cognitive development with hospitalization. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to analyse factors associated with hospitalization risk overtime. In addition, an explorative descriptive design was used to explore how home health care patients experienced and perceived their decision to seek hospital care. Results: The most common reasons for hospitalization were cardiovascular diseases, which caused more than one-quarter of first hospitalizations among the persons living in ordinary housing and nursing home residents (NHRs). The persons who had been hospitalized had a lower mean level of cognitive performance in general cognition, verbal, spatial/fluid, memory and processing speed abilities compared to those who had not been hospitalized. Significantly steeper declines in general cognition, spatial/fluid and processing speed abilities were observed among the persons who had been hospitalized. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that the number of diseases, number of drugs used, having experienced a fall and being assessed as malnourished according to the Mini Nutritional Assessment scale were related to an increased hospitalization risk among the NHRs. Among the older persons living in ordinary housing, the risk factors for hospitalization were related to marital status, i.e., unmarried persons and widows/widowers had a decreased hospitalization risk. In addition, among social factors, receipt of support from relatives was related to an increased hospitalization risk, while receipt of support from friends was related to a decreased risk. The number of illnesses was not associated with the hospitalization risk for older persons in any age group or for those of either sex, when controlling for other variables. The older persons who received home health care described different reasons for their decisions to seek hospital care. The underlying theme of the home health care patients’ perceptions of their transfer to a hospital involved trust in hospitals. This trust was shared by the home health care patients, their relatives and the home health care staff, according to the patients. Conclusions: This thesis revealed that middle-aged and older persons who had been hospitalized exhibited a steeper decline in cognition. Specifically, spatial/fluid, processing speed, and general cognitive abilities were affected. The steeper decline in cognition among those who had been hospitalized remained even after controlling for comorbidities. The most common causes of hospitalization among the older persons living in ordinary housing and in nursing homes were cardiovascular diseases, tumours and falls. Not only health-related factors, such as the number of diseases, number of drugs used, and being assessed as malnourished, but also social factors and marital status were related to the hospitalization risk among the older persons living in ordinary housing and in nursing homes. Some risk factors associated with hospitalization differed not only between the men and women but also among the different age groups. The information provided in this thesis could be applied in care settings by professionals who interact with older persons before they decide to seek hospital care. To meet the needs of an older population, health care systems need to offer the proper health care at the most appropriate level, and they need to increase integration and coordination among health care delivered by different care services.

Análise comportamental : um estudo por análise de sobrevivência, aplicada a cartões de crédito

A capacidade de adaptação e rapidez de decisão, distinguem as empresas que melhor conseguem competir e crescer no mercado global. Para atuar rapidamente, as organizações precisam de sistemas de informação cada vez mais eficazes, surgindo recentemente uma nova função considerada fundamental para as empresas, que é a de Cientista de Dados. É neste contexto e para responder aos desafios atuais e futuros, que surgem sistemas de informação cada vez mais avançados, suportados por modelos de análise e visualização estatística. Este trabalho consiste em criar uma metodologia de desenvolvimento de modelos de previsão de incumprimento e perfil do consumidor, aplicado a cartões de crédito, com base numa exposição de análise comportamental, utilizando técnicas de análise de sobrevivência. São definidas técnicas de tratamento dos dados recolhidos, estimado modelo não-paramétrico de Kaplan-Meier e vários modelos de Cox de riscos proporcionais. Com recurso à curva ROC, dependente do tempo, à AUC e ao índice de Gini, conclui-se que o modelo final apresenta um desempenho positivo para identificar os clientes em situação de incumprimento ou com propensão a incumprir.

Association of HDL cholesterol and triglycerides with mortality in patients with heart failure

It has been demonstrated that there is an association between serum lipoproteins and survival rate in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy, as well as in patients with non-ischemic causes of heart failure. We tested the hypothesis of an association between serum lipoprotein levels and prognosis in a cohort of outpatients with heart failure, including Chagas' heart disease. The lipid profile of 833 outpatients with heart failure in functional classes III and IV of the New York Heart Association, with a mean age of 46.9 ± 10.6 years, 655 (78.6%) men and 178 (21.4%) women, was studied from April 1991 to June 2003. The survival rate was estimated by the Kaplan-Meyer's method and the Cox proportional hazards models. Etiology of heart failure was ischemic cardiomyopathy in 171 (21%) patients, Chagas' heart disease in 144 (17%), hypertensive cardiomyopathy in 136 (16%), and other etiologies in 83 (10%). In 299 (36%) patients, heart failure was ascribed to idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy. Variables significantly associated with mortality were age (hazard ratio, HR = 1.02; 95%CI = 1.01-1.03; P = 0.0074), male gender (HR = 1.77; 95%CI = 1.2-2.62; P = 0.004), idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (HR = 1.81; 95%CI = 1.16-2.82; P = 0.0085), serum triglycerides (HR = 0.97; 95%CI = 0.96-0.98; P < 0.0001), and HDL cholesterol (HR = 0.99; 95%CI = 0.99-1.0; P = 0.0280). Therefore, higher serum HDL cholesterol and higher serum triglycerides were associated with lower mortality in this cohort of outpatients with heart failure.