Time-dependent or state-dependent pricing? : evidence from a large currency devaluation episode

Duas classes de modelos buscam explicar o padrão de ajustamento de preço das firmas: modelos tempo-dependente e estado-dependente. O objetivo deste trabalho é levantar algumas evidencias empíricas de modo a distinguir os modelos, ou seja, identificar de que maneira as firmas realmente precificam. Para isso, escolheu-se a grande desvalorização cambial de 1999 como principal ferramenta e ambiente de análise. A hipótese fundamental é que o choque cambial impacta significativamente o custo de algumas indústrias, em alguns casos induzindo-as a alterarem seus preço após o choque. A partir de uma imensa base de micro dados formada por preços que compõem o CPI, algumas estimações importantes como a probabilidade e a magnitude média das trocas foram levantadas. A magnitude é dada por uma média simples, enquanto a probabilidade é estimada pelo método da máxima verossimilhança. Os resultados indicam um comportamento de precificação similar ao proposto por modelos estado-dependente.

Integral representation with convex capacities that are squeeze of (additive) probability measures

In this paper I will investigate the conditions under which a convex capacity (or a non-additive probability which exhibts uncertainty aversion) can be represented as a squeeze of a(n) (additive) probability measure associate to an uncertainty aversion function. Then I will present two alternatives forrnulations of the Choquet integral (and I will extend these forrnulations to the Choquet expected utility) in a parametric approach that will enable me to do comparative static exercises over the uncertainty aversion function in an easy way.

Genetic parameter estimates for live weight and daily live weight gain obtained for Nellore bulls in a test station using different models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Misclassification probability as obese or lean in hypercaloric and normocaloric diet

The aim of the present study was to determine the classification error probabilities, as lean or obese, in hypercaloric diet-induced obesity, which depends on the variable used to characterize animal obesity. In addition, the misclassification probabilities in animals submitted to normocaloric diet were also evaluated. Male Wistar rats were randomly distributed into two groups: normal diet (ND; n=3 1; 3,5 Kcal/g) and hypercaloric diet (HD; n=31; 4,6 Kcal/g). The ND group received commercial Labina rat feed and HD animals a cycle of five hypercaloric diets for a 14-week period. The variables analysed were body weight, body composition, body weight to length ratio, Lee index, body mass index and misclassification probability A 5% significance level was used. The hypercaloric pellet-diet cycle promoted increase of body weight, carcass fat, body weight to length ratio and Lee index. The total misclassification probabilities ranged from 19.21 % to 40.91 %. In Conclusion, the results of this experiment show that rnisclassification probabilities Occur when dietary manipulation is used to promote obesity in animals. This misjudgement ranges from 19.49% to 40.52% in hypercaloric diet and 18.94% to 41.30% in normocaloric diet.

Red Blood Cell Transfusions are Independently Associated with Intra-Hospital Mortality in Very Low Birth Weight Preterm Infants

Objective To test the hypothesis that red blood cell (RBC) transfusions in preterm infants are associated with increased intra-hospital mortality.Study design Variables associated with death were studied with Cox regression analysis in a prospective cohort of preterm infants with birth weight <1500 g in the Brazilian Network on Neonatal Research. Intra-hospital death and death after 28 days of life were analyzed as dependent variables. Independent variables were infant demographic and clinical characteristics and RBC transfusions.Results of 1077 infants, 574 (53.3%) received at least one RBC transfusion during the hospital stay. The mean number of transfusions per infant was 3.3 +/- 3.4, with 2.1 +/- 2.1 in the first 28 days of life. Intra-hospital death occurred in 299 neonates (27.8%), and 60 infants (5.6%) died after 28 days of life. After adjusting for confounders, the relative risk of death during hospital stay was 1.49 in infants who received at least one RBC transfusion in the first 28 days of life, compared with infants who did not receive a transfusion. The risk of death after 28 days of life was 1.89 times higher in infants who received more than two RBC transfusions during their hospital stay, compared with infants who received one or two transfusions.Conclusion Transfusion was associated with increased death, and transfusion guidelines should consider risks and benefits of transfusion. (J Pediatr 2011; 159: 371-6).

Prediction and probability of neonatal outcome in isolated congenital diaphragmatic hernia using multiple ultrasound parameters

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Theoretical estimates of consumable food and probability of acquiring food in larvae of Chrysomya putoria (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

An indirect estimate of consumable food and probability of acquiring food in a blowfly species, Chrysomya putoria, is presented. This alternative procedure combines three distinct models to estimate consumable food in the context of the exploitative competition experienced by immature individuals in blowfly populations. The relevant parameters are derived from data for pupal weight and survival and estimates of density-independent larval mortality in twenty different larval densities. As part of this procedure, the probability of acquiring food per unit of time and the time taken to exhaust the food supply are also calculated. The procedure employed here may be valuable for estimations in insects whose immature stages develop inside the food substrate, where it is difficult to partial out confounding effects such as separation of faeces. This procedure also has the advantage of taking into account the population dynamics of immatures living under crowded conditions, which are particularly characteristic of blowflies and other insects as well.

Purification, biochemical and functional characterization of miliin, a new thiol-dependent serine protease isolated from the latex of Euphorbia milii

Miliin, a new thiol-dependent serine protease purified from the latex of Euphorbia milii possesses a molecular weight of 79 kDa, an isoelectric point of 4.3 and is optimally active at 60 degrees C in the pH range of and 7.5-11.0. Activity tests indicate that milliin is a thiol-dependent serine protease.

Variational supersymmetric approach to evaluate Fokker-Planck probability

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Size composition, monthly condition factor and morphometrics for fishery-dependent samples of Rioraja agassizi (Chondrichthyes: Rajidae), off Santos, Southeast Brazil

Espécimes de Rioraja agassizi foram mensalmente coletados em águas ao largo de Santos, sudeste do Brasil entre as latitudes 23º37'S e 27º40'S, desde março de 2005 até março de 2006. Um total de 278 machos e 1023 fêmeas foi capturado. A amplitude de profundidade de ocorrência foi 10-120 m, estando a espécie ausente em profundidades >120 m. A razão sexual favoreceu as fêmeas. A amplitude completa de comprimentos de R. agassizi esteve representada e oscilou nas fêmeas entre 16.0-59.4 cm comprimento e nos machos entre 13.0-47.2 cm. O tamanho médio das fêmeas foi significativamente maior do que dos machos. A distribuição de freqüência de comprimentos por amostras agrupadas foi assimétrica em ambos os sexos. As curvas da relação comprimento-largura foram sexualmente dimórficas. As fêmeas foram mais largas que os machos em todas as classes de comprimento maiores do que 25 cm. As curvas comprimento-peso total foram significativamente diferentes das curvas comprimento-peso eviscerado em ambos os sexos. As fêmeas foram mais pesadas do que os machos para uma determinada classe de comprimento. O coeficiente angular b foi <3 nos machos (alometría negativa) e nas fêmeas, mas com exceção da primavera, onde a alometría foi positiva (b>3). O fator de condição variou significativamente ao longo do ano em ambos os sexos.

Genetic characterization of egg weight, egg production and age at first egg in quails

O objetivo neste estudo foi obter estimativas de parâmetros genéticos para as características peso do ovo, produção de ovos em 189 dias de postura e dia do primeiro ovo em codornas de três linhagens de postura e uma de corte. Os dados foram analisados por meio de procedimentos bayesianos usando amostragem de Gibbs. As estimativas de herdabilidade para peso do ovo, produção de ovos em 189 dias de postura e dia do primeiro ovo foram, respectivamente, para a linhagem amarela, 0,31; 0,84 e 0,53; azul, 0,14; 0,82 e 0,60; vermelha, 0,70; 0,96 e 0,75; e de corte, 0,73; 0,96 e 0,72. As correlações genéticas entre peso do ovo e produção de ovos em 189 dias de postura, peso do ovo e dia do primeiro ovo e, produção de ovos em 189 dias de postura e dia do primeiro ovo foram, para amarela, 0,58; -0,77; e -0,90; azul, 0,09; -0,01; e -0,95; vermelha, 0,09; 0,03; e -0,76; e de corte, -0,18; 0,19 e -0,91. A partir das probabilidades de superposição das distribuições posteriories dos parâmetros, as linhagens dividem-se em dois grupos distintos: um com as linhagens amarela e azul e outro com as linhagens vermelha e de corte.

Analytical and Monte Carlo approaches to evaluate probability distributions of interruption duration

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties-and, in some cases, rewards-that introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the maximum continuous interruption duration (MCID) per customer.This parameter is responsible for the majority of penalties in many electric distribution utilities. This paper describes analytical and Monte Carlo simulation approaches to evaluate probability distributions of interruption duration indices. More emphasis will be given to the development of an analytical method to assess the probability distribution associated with the parameter MCID and the correspond ng penalties. Case studies on a simple distribution network and on a real Brazilian distribution system are presented and discussed.

Escape of particles in a time-dependent potential well

We investigate the escape of an ensemble of noninteracting particles inside an infinite potential box that contains a time-dependent potential well. The dynamics of each particle is described by a two-dimensional nonlinear area-preserving mapping for the variables energy and time, leading to a mixed phase space. The chaotic sea in the phase space surrounds periodic islands and is limited by a set of invariant spanning curves. When a hole is introduced in the energy axis, the histogram of frequency for the escape of particles, which we observe to be scaling invariant, grows rapidly until it reaches a maximum and then decreases toward zero at sufficiently long times. A plot of the survival probability of a particle in the dynamics as function of time is observed to be exponential for short times, reaching a crossover time and turning to a slower-decay regime, due to sticky regions observed in the phase space.

Combined effects of cyclosporin and nifedipine on gingival overgrowth in rats is not age dependent

Background: Cyclosporin A and nifedipine cause gingival overgrowth in rat, and the combined use of these drugs increases the overgrowth severity. Objective: The purpose of this study was to compare gingival overgrowth of rats of differents ages treated with cyclosporin A and nifedipine alone or given concurrently. Materials and methods: Rats 15, 30, 60 and 90 d old were treated with 10 mg/kg body weight of cyclosporin A and/or 50 mg/kg body weight of nifedipine in the chow. Results: Young rats showed evident gingival overgrowth with nifedipine, cyclosporin A, and cyclosporin A and nifedipine given concurrently. Adult rats did not show significant gingival alterations when treated with cyclosporin A and nifedipine alone. Nevertheless evident gingival overgrowth with alterations of the epithelium and connective tissue were observed when treated simultaneously with cyclosporin A and nifedipine. Conclusion: These results suggest that the combined effects of cyclosporin A and nifedipine on gingival overgrowth in rat is not age dependent.

Multi-trait and random regression mature weight heritability and breeding value estimates in Nelore cattle

Mature weight breeding values were estimated using a multi-trait animal model (MM) and a random regression animal model (RRM). Data consisted of 82 064 weight records from 8 145 animals, recorded from birth to eight years of age. Weights at standard ages were considered in the MM. All models included contemporary groups as fixed effects, and age of dam (linear and quadratic effects) and animal age as covariates. In the RRM, mean trends were modelled through a cubic regression on orthogonal polynomials of animal age and genetic maternal and direct and maternal permanent environmental effects were also included as random. Legendre polynomials of orders 4, 3, 6 and 3 were used for animal and maternal genetic and permanent environmental effects, respectively, considering five classes of residual variances. Mature weight (five years) direct heritability estimates were 0.35 (MM) and 0.38 (RRM). Rank correlation between sires' breeding values estimated by MM and RRM was 0.82. However, selecting the top 2% (12) or 10% (62) of the young sires based on the MM predicted breeding values, respectively 71% and 80% of the same sires would be selected if RRM estimates were used instead. The RRM modelled the changes in the (co)variances with age adequately and larger breeding value accuracies can be expected using this model. © South African Society for Animal Science.