Modelling human preferences for ranking and collaborative filtering: a probabilistic ordered partition approach

Learning preference models from human generated data is an important task in modern information processing systems. Its popular setting consists of simple input ratings, assigned with numerical values to indicate their relevancy with respect to a specific query. Since ratings are often specified within a small range, several objects may have the same ratings, thus creating ties among objects for a given query. Dealing with this phenomena presents a general problem of modelling preferences in the presence of ties and being query-specific. To this end, we present in this paper a novel approach by constructing probabilistic models directly on the collection of objects exploiting the combinatorial structure induced by the ties among them. The proposed probabilistic setting allows exploration of a super-exponential combinatorial state-space with unknown numbers of partitions and unknown order among them. Learning and inference in such a large state-space are challenging, and yet we present in this paper efficient algorithms to perform these tasks. Our approach exploits discrete choice theory, imposing generative process such that the finite set of objects is partitioned into subsets in a stagewise procedure, and thus reducing the state-space at each stage significantly. Efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are then presented for the proposed models. We demonstrate that the model can potentially be trained in a large-scale setting of hundreds of thousands objects using an ordinary computer. In fact, in some special cases with appropriate model specification, our models can be learned in linear time. We evaluate the models on two application areas: (i) document ranking with the data from the Yahoo! challenge and (ii) collaborative filtering with movie data. We demonstrate that the models are competitive against state-of-the-arts.

A proposal for reliability evaluation of components on electric power distribution system integrating probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems

The system reliability depends on the reliability of its components itself. Therefore, it is necessary a methodology capable of inferring the state of functionality of these components to establish reliable indices of quality. Allocation models for maintenance and protective devices, among others, have been used in order to improve the quality and availability of services on electric power distribution systems. This paper proposes a methodology for assessing the reliability of distribution system components in an integrated way, using probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems to infer about the operation probability of each component. © 2012 IEEE.

Subject-specific musculoskeletal models of the lower limbs for the prediction of skeletal loads during motion

The determination of skeletal loading conditions in vivo and their relationship to the health of bone tissues, remain an open question. Computational modeling of the musculoskeletal system is the only practicable method providing a valuable approach to muscle and joint loading analyses, although crucial shortcomings limit the translation process of computational methods into the orthopedic and neurological practice. A growing attention focused on subject-specific modeling, particularly when pathological musculoskeletal conditions need to be studied. Nevertheless, subject-specific data cannot be always collected in the research and clinical practice, and there is a lack of efficient methods and frameworks for building models and incorporating them in simulations of motion. The overall aim of the present PhD thesis was to introduce improvements to the state-of-the-art musculoskeletal modeling for the prediction of physiological muscle and joint loads during motion. A threefold goal was articulated as follows: (i) develop state-of-the art subject-specific models and analyze skeletal load predictions; (ii) analyze the sensitivity of model predictions to relevant musculotendon model parameters and kinematic uncertainties; (iii) design an efficient software framework simplifying the effort-intensive phases of subject-specific modeling pre-processing. The first goal underlined the relevance of subject-specific musculoskeletal modeling to determine physiological skeletal loads during gait, corroborating the choice of full subject-specific modeling for the analyses of pathological conditions. The second goal characterized the sensitivity of skeletal load predictions to major musculotendon parameters and kinematic uncertainties, and robust probabilistic methods were applied for methodological and clinical purposes. The last goal created an efficient software framework for subject-specific modeling and simulation, which is practical, user friendly and effort effective. Future research development aims at the implementation of more accurate models describing lower-limb joint mechanics and musculotendon paths, and the assessment of an overall scenario of the crucial model parameters affecting the skeletal load predictions through probabilistic modeling.

Utilization of Probabilistic Models in Short Read Assembly from Second-Generation Sequencing

With the advent of cheaper and faster DNA sequencing technologies, assembly methods have greatly changed. Instead of outputting reads that are thousands of base pairs long, new sequencers parallelize the task by producing read lengths between 35 and 400 base pairs. Reconstructing an organism’s genome from these millions of reads is a computationally expensive task. Our algorithm solves this problem by organizing and indexing the reads using n-grams, which are short, fixed-length DNA sequences of length n. These n-grams are used to efficiently locate putative read joins, thereby eliminating the need to perform an exhaustive search over all possible read pairs. Our goal was develop a novel n-gram method for the assembly of genomes from next-generation sequencers. Specifically, a probabilistic, iterative approach was utilized to determine the most likely reads to join through development of a new metric that models the probability of any two arbitrary reads being joined together. Tests were run using simulated short read data based on randomly created genomes ranging in lengths from 10,000 to 100,000 nucleotides with 16 to 20x coverage. We were able to successfully re-assemble entire genomes up to 100,000 nucleotides in length.

Representation via Probabilities: Models of Probabilistic Modeling

How do probabilistic models represent their targets and how do they allow us to learn about them? The answer to this question depends on a number of details, in particular on the meaning of the probabilities involved. To classify the options, a minimalist conception of representation (Su\'arez 2004) is adopted: Modelers devise substitutes (``sources'') of their targets and investigate them to infer something about the target. Probabilistic models allow us to infer probabilities about the target from probabilities about the source. This leads to a framework in which we can systematically distinguish between different models of probabilistic modeling. I develop a fully Bayesian view of probabilistic modeling, but I argue that, as an alternative, Bayesian degrees of belief about the target may be derived from ontic probabilities about the source. Remarkably, some accounts of ontic probabilities can avoid problems if they are supposed to apply to sources only.

Probabilistic models for the prediction of a ship performance in dynamic ice

We introduce two probabilistic, data-driven models that predict a ship's speed and the situations where a ship is probable to get stuck in ice based on the joint effect of ice features such as the thickness and concentration of level ice, ice ridges, rafted ice, moreover ice compression is considered. To develop the models to datasets were utilized. First, the data from the Automatic Identification System about the performance of a selected ship was used. Second, a numerical ice model HELMI, developed in the Finnish Meteorological Institute, provided information about the ice field. The relations between the ice conditions and ship movements were established using Bayesian learning algorithms. The case study presented in this paper considers a single and unassisted trip of an ice-strengthened bulk carrier between two Finnish ports in the presence of challenging ice conditions, which varied in time and space. The obtained results show good prediction power of the models. This means, on average 80% for predicting the ship's speed within specified bins, and above 90% for predicting cases where a ship may get stuck in ice. We expect this new approach to facilitate the safe and effective route selection problem for ice-covered waters where the ship performance is reflected in the objective function.

Neutrality in the choice of number of firms or level of fixed costs in calibrating an Armington-Krugman-Melitz encompassing module for applied general equilibrium models

This paper shows how an Armington-Krugman-Melitz encompassing module based on Dixon and Rimmer (2012) can be calibrated, and clarifies the choice of initial levels for two kinds of number of firms, or parameter values for two kinds of fixed costs, that enter a Melitz-type specification can be set freely to any preferred value, just as the cases we derive quantities from given value data assuming some of the initial prices to be unity. In consequence, only one kind of additional information, which is on the shape parameter related to productivity, just is required in order to incorporate Melitz-type monopolistic competition and heterogeneous firms into a standard applied general equilibrium model. To be a Krugman-type, nothing is needed. This enables model builders in applied economics to fully enjoy the featured properties of the theoretical models invented by Krugman (1980) and Melitz (2003) in practical policy simulations at low cost.

Does client size affect cleaner fish choice of client? An empirical test using client fish models

To determine whether the choice of client fishes in the cleaner fish Labroides dimidiatus was influenced by client size, cleaner fish were given a choice of equal amount of food spread on large and small client redfin butterflyfish Chaetodon trifasciatus models. All large models received bites from cleaners compared to 27% for small models. Seventy-nine per cent of cleaners took their first bite from the large fish model. The results suggest that client size may affect cleaner fish choice.

Prediction of protein continuum secondary structure with probabilistic models based on NMR solved structures

Background: The structure of proteins may change as a result of the inherent flexibility of some protein regions. We develop and explore probabilistic machine learning methods for predicting a continuum secondary structure, i.e. assigning probabilities to the conformational states of a residue. We train our methods using data derived from high-quality NMR models. Results: Several probabilistic models not only successfully estimate the continuum secondary structure, but also provide a categorical output on par with models directly trained on categorical data. Importantly, models trained on the continuum secondary structure are also better than their categorical counterparts at identifying the conformational state for structurally ambivalent residues. Conclusion: Cascaded probabilistic neural networks trained on the continuum secondary structure exhibit better accuracy in structurally ambivalent regions of proteins, while sustaining an overall classification accuracy on par with standard, categorical prediction methods.

Simulation of air traffic controllers' behaviour using the operator choice model

The Operator Choice Model (OCM) was developed to model the behaviour of operators attending to complex tasks involving interdependent concurrent activities, such as in Air Traffic Control (ATC). The purpose of the OCM is to provide a flexible framework for modelling and simulation that can be used for quantitative analyses in human reliability assessment, comparison between human computer interaction (HCI) designs, and analysis of operator workload. The OCM virtual operator is essentially a cycle of four processes: Scan Classify Decide Action Perform Action. Once a cycle is complete, the operator will return to the Scan process. It is also possible to truncate a cycle and return to Scan after each of the processes. These processes are described using Continuous Time Probabilistic Automata (CTPA). The details of the probability and timing models are specific to the domain of application, and need to be specified using domain experts. We are building an application of the OCM for use in ATC. In order to develop a realistic model we are calibrating the probability and timing models that comprise each process using experimental data from a series of experiments conducted with student subjects. These experiments have identified the factors that influence perception and decision making in simplified conflict detection and resolution tasks. This paper presents an application of the OCM approach to a simple ATC conflict detection experiment. The aim is to calibrate the OCM so that its behaviour resembles that of the experimental subjects when it is challenged with the same task. Its behaviour should also interpolate when challenged with scenarios similar to those used to calibrate it. The approach illustrated here uses logistic regression to model the classifications made by the subjects. This model is fitted to the calibration data, and provides an extrapolation to classifications in scenarios outside of the calibration data. A simple strategy is used to calibrate the timing component of the model, and the results for reaction times are compared between the OCM and the student subjects. While this approach to timing does not capture the full complexity of the reaction time distribution seen in the data from the student subjects, the mean and the tail of the distributions are similar.

The Localization Procedures of the Vector of Weighting Coefficients for Fuzzy Models of Choice

The author analyzes the localization procedures of the vector of weighting coefficients which are based on presenting the function of value by additive reduction adapted to fuzzy models of choice.

Probabilistic Models in Cryptography, Coding Theory and Tests for PRNG

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 94A29, 94B70

Does a peer model’s task proficiency influence children’s solution choice and innovation?

The current study investigated whether 4- to 6-year-old children’s task solution choice was influenced by the past proficiency of familiar peer models and the children’s personal prior task experience. Peer past proficiency was established through behavioral assessments of interactions with novel tasks alongside peer and teacher predictions of each child’s proficiency. Based on these assessments, one peer model with high past proficiency and one age-, sex-, dominance-, and popularity-matched peer model with lower past proficiency were trained to remove a capsule using alternative solutions from a three-solution artificial fruit task. Video demonstrations of the models were shown to children after they had either a personal successful interaction or no interaction with the task. In general, there was not a strong bias toward the high past-proficiency model, perhaps due to a motivation to acquire multiple methods and the salience of other transmission biases. However, there was some evidence of a model-based past-proficiency bias; when the high past-proficiency peer matched the participants’ original solution, there was increased use of that solution, whereas if the high past-proficiency peer demonstrated an alternative solution, there was increased use of the alternative social solution and novel solutions. Thus, model proficiency influenced innovation.