969 resultados para Probabilidade de default


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Recently, multiple studies showed that spatial and temporal features of a task-negative default mode network (DMN) (Greicius et al., 2003) are important markers for psychiatric diseases (Balsters et al., 2013). Another prominent indicator of cognitive functioning, yielding information about the mental condition in health and disease, is working memory (WM) processing. In EEG and MEG studies, frontal-midline theta power has been shown to increase with load during WM retention in healthy subjects (Brookes et al., 2011). Negative correlations between DMN activity and theta amplitude have been found during resting state (Jann et al., 2010) as well as during WM (Michels et al., 2010). Likewise, WM training resulted in higher resting state theta power as well as increased small-worldness of the resting brain (Langer et al., 2013). Further, increased fMRI connectivity between nodes of the DMN correlated with better WM performance (Hampson et al., 2006). Hence, the brain’s default state might influence it’s functioning during task. We therefore hypothesized correlations between pre-stimulus DMN activity and EEG-theta power during WM maintenance, depending on the WM load. 17 healthy subjects performed a Sternberg WM task while being measured simultaneously with EEG and fMRI. Data was recorded within a multicenter-study: 12 subjects were measured in Zurich with a 64-channels MR-compatible system (Brain Products) in a 3T Philips scanner, 5 subjects with a 96-channel MR-compatible system (Brain Products) in a 3T Siemens Scanner in Bern. The DMN components was obtained by a group BOLD-ICA approach over the full task duration (figure 1). The subject-wise dynamics were obtained by back-reconstructed onto each subject’s fMRI data and normalized to percent signal change values. The single trial pre-stimulus-DMN activation was then temporally correlated with the single trial EEG-theta (3-8 Hz) spectral power during retention intervals. This so-called covariance mapping (Jann et al., 2010) yielded the spatial distribution of the theta EEG fluctuations during retention associated with the dynamics of the pre-stimulus DMN. In line with previous findings, theta power was increased at frontal-midline electrodes in high- versus low-load conditions during early WM retention (figure 2). However, correlations of DMN with theta power resulted in primarily positive correlations in low-load conditions, while during high-load conditions negative correlations of DMN activity and theta power were observed at frontal-midline electrodes. This DMN-dependent load effect reached significance in the middle of the retention period (TANOVA, p<0.05) (figure 3). Our results show a complex and load-dependent interaction of pre-stimulus DMN activity and theta power during retention, varying over time. While at a more global, load-independent view pre-stimulus DMN activity correlated positively with theta power during retention, the correlation was inversed during certain time windows in high-load trials, meaning that in trials with enhanced pre-stimulus DMN activity theta power decreases during retention. Since both WM performance and DMN activity are markers of mental health our results could be important for further investigations of psychiatric populations.

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Low self-referential thoughts are associated with better concentration, which leads to deeper encoding and increases learning and subsequent retrieval. There is evidence that being engaged in externally rather than internally focused tasks is related to low neural activity in the default mode network (DMN) promoting open mind and the deep elaboration of new information. Thus, reduced DMN activity should lead to enhanced concentration, comprehensive stimulus evaluation including emotional categorization, deeper stimulus processing, and better long-term retention over one whole week. In this fMRI study, we investigated brain activation preceding and during incidental encoding of emotional pictures and on subsequent recognition performance. During fMRI, 24 subjects were exposed to 80 pictures of different emotional valence and subsequently asked to complete an online recognition task one week later. Results indicate that neural activity within the medial temporal lobes during encoding predicts subsequent memory performance. Moreover, a low activity of the default mode network preceding incidental encoding leads to slightly better recognition performance independent of the emotional perception of a picture. The findings indicate that the suppression of internally-oriented thoughts leads to a more comprehensive and thorough evaluation of a stimulus and its emotional valence. Reduced activation of the DMN prior to stimulus onset is associated with deeper encoding and enhanced consolidation and retrieval performance even one week later. Even small prestimulus lapses of attention influence consolidation and subsequent recognition performance. Hum Brain Mapp, 2015. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

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In this paper, we extend the debate concerning Credit Default Swap valuation to include time varying correlation and co-variances. Traditional multi-variate techniques treat the correlations between covariates as constant over time; however, this view is not supported by the data. Secondly, since financial data does not follow a normal distribution because of its heavy tails, modeling the data using a Generalized Linear model (GLM) incorporating copulas emerge as a more robust technique over traditional approaches. This paper also includes an empirical analysis of the regime switching dynamics of credit risk in the presence of liquidity by following the general practice of assuming that credit and market risk follow a Markov process. The study was based on Credit Default Swap data obtained from Bloomberg that spanned the period January 1st 2004 to August 08th 2006. The empirical examination of the regime switching tendencies provided quantitative support to the anecdotal view that liquidity decreases as credit quality deteriorates. The analysis also examined the joint probability distribution of the credit risk determinants across credit quality through the use of a copula function which disaggregates the behavior embedded in the marginal gamma distributions, so as to isolate the level of dependence which is captured in the copula function. The results suggest that the time varying joint correlation matrix performed far superior as compared to the constant correlation matrix; the centerpiece of linear regression models.

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This paper reinforces the argument of Harding and Sirmans (2002) that the observed preference of lenders for extended maturity rather than renegotiation of the principle in the case of loan default is due to the superior incentive properties of the former. Specifically, borrowers have a greater incentive to avoid default under extended maturity because it reduces the likelihood that they will be able to escape paying off the full loan balance. Thus, although extended maturity leaves open the possibility of foreclosure, it will be preferred to renegotiation as long as the dead weight loss from foreclosure is not too large.

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This paper develops a reduced form three-factor model which includes a liquidity proxy of market conditions which is then used to provide implicit prices. The model prices are then compared with observed market prices of credit default swaps to determine if swap rates adequately reflect market risks. The findings of the analysis illustrate the importance of liquidity in the valuation process. Moreover, market liquidity, a measure of investors. willingness to commit resources in the credit default swap (CDS) market, was also found to improve the valuation of investors. autonomous credit risk. Thus a failure to include a liquidity proxy could underestimate the implied autonomous credit risk. Autonomous credit risk is defined as the fractional credit risk which does not vary with changes in market risk and liquidity conditions.

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During the transition period from a planned economy to a market economy in 1990s of China, there was a considerable accrual of deferred payment, and default due to inferior enforcement institutions. This is a very common phenomenon in the transition economies at that time. Interviews with home electronics appliance firms revealed that firms coped with this problem by adjusting their sales mechanisms (found four types), and the benefit of institutions was limited. A theoretical analysis claim that spot and integration are inferior to contracts, a contract with a rebate on volume and prepayment against an exclusive agent can realize the lowest cost and price. The empirical part showed that mechanisms converged into a mechanism with the rebate on volume an against exclusive agent and its price level is the lowest. The competition is the driving force of the convergence of mechanisms and improvement risk management capacity.

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Over the past years, several studies on Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) and Alzheimer's disease (AD) have reported Default Mode Network (DMN) deficits. This network is attracting increasing interest in the AD community, as it seems to play an important role in cognitive functioning and in beta amyloid deposition. Attention has been particularly drawn to how different DMN regions are connected using functional or structural connectivity. To this end, most studies have used functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI), Positron Emission Tomography (PET) or Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI). In this study we evaluated (1) functional connectivity from resting state magnetoencephalography (MEG) and (2) structural connectivity from DTI in 26 MCI patients and 31 age-matched controls. Compared to controls, the DMN in the MCI group was functionally disrupted in the alpha band, while no differences were found for delta, theta, beta and gamma frequency bands. In addition, structural disconnection could be assessed through a decreased fractional anisotropy along tracts connecting different DMN regions. This suggests that the DMN functional and anatomical disconnection could represent a core feature of MCI.

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Select lipid-anchored proteins such as glycosylphosphatidylinositol (GPI)-anchored proteins and nonreceptor tyrosine kinases may preferentially partition into sphingomyelin-rich and cholesterol-rich plasmalemmal microdomains, thereby acquiring resistance to detergent extraction. Two such domains, caveolae and lipid rafts, are morphologically and biochemically distinct, contain many signaling molecules, and may function in compartmentalizing cell surface signaling. Subfractionation and confocal immunofluorescence microscopy reveal that, in lung tissue and in cultured endothelial and epithelial cells, heterotrimeric G proteins (Gi, Gq, Gs, and Gβγ) target discrete cell surface microdomains. Gq specifically concentrates in caveolae, whereas Gi and Gs concentrate much more in lipid rafts marked by GPI-anchored proteins (5′ nucleotidase and folate receptor). Gq, apparently without Gβγ subunits, stably associates with plasmalemmal and cytosolic caveolin. Gi and Gs interact with Gβγ subunits but not caveolin. Gi and Gs, unlike Gq, readily move out of caveolae. Thus, caveolin may function as a scaffold to trap, concentrate, and stabilize Gq preferentially within caveolae over lipid rafts. In N2a cells lacking caveolae and caveolin, Gq, Gi, and Gs all concentrate in lipid rafts as a complex with Gβγ. Without effective physiological interaction with caveolin, G proteins tend by default to segregate in lipid rafts. The ramifications of the segregated microdomain distribution and the Gq-caveolin complex without Gβγ for trafficking, signaling, and mechanotransduction are discussed.

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Medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) is among those brain regions having the highest baseline metabolic activity at rest and one that exhibits decreases from this baseline across a wide variety of goal-directed behaviors in functional imaging studies. This high metabolic rate and this behavior suggest the existence of an organized mode of default brain function, elements of which may be either attenuated or enhanced. Extant data suggest that these MPFC regions may contribute to the neural instantiation of aspects of the multifaceted “self.” We explore this important concept by targeting and manipulating elements of MPFC default state activity. In this functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study, subjects made two judgments, one self-referential, the other not, in response to affectively normed pictures: pleasant vs. unpleasant (an internally cued condition, ICC) and indoors vs. outdoors (an externally cued condition, ECC). The ICC was preferentially associated with activity increases along the dorsal MPFC. These increases were accompanied by decreases in both active task conditions in ventral MPFC. These results support the view that dorsal and ventral MPFC are differentially influenced by attentiondemanding tasks and explicitly self-referential tasks. The presence of self-referential mental activity appears to be associated with increases from the baseline in dorsal MPFC. Reductions in ventral MPFC occurred consistent with the fact that attention-demanding tasks attenuate emotional processing. We posit that both self-referential mental activity and emotional processing represent elements of the default state as represented by activity in MPFC. We suggest that a useful way to explore the neurobiology of the self is to explore the nature of default state activity.

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This perspective is a response to a taxonomic proposal by E. Mayr [“Two empires or three?” (1998) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 95, 9720–9723]. Mayr has suggested that the now accepted classification of life into three primary domains, Archaea, Bacteria, and Eucarya—originally proposed by myself and others—be abandoned in favor of the earlier Prokaryote–Eukaryote classification. Although the matter appears a taxonomic quibble, it is not that simple. At issue here are differing views as to the nature of biological classification, which are underlain by differing views as to what biology is and will be—matters of concern to all biologists.