Intrinsic and rational speculative bubbles in the U.S. housing market 1960-2011

This paper examines the dynamics of the residential property market in the United States between 1960 and 2011. Given the cyclically and apparent overvaluation of the market over this period, we determine whether deviations of real estate prices from their fundamentals were caused by the existence of two genres of bubbles: intrinsic bubbles and rational speculative bubbles. We find evidence of an intrinsic bubble in the market pre-2000, implying that overreaction to changes in rents contributed to the overvaluation of real estate prices. However, using a regime-switching model, we find evidence of periodically collapsing rational bubbles in the post-2000 market

Civilian casualties – do we really care? The failure of the revolution in military affairs of non-lethal weapons in the U.S., Russia and Israel

Causing civilian casualties during military operations has become a much politicised topic in international relations since the Second World War. Since the last decade of the 20th century, different scholars and political analysts have claimed that human life is valued more and more among the general international community. This argument has led many researchers to assume that democratic culture and traditions, modern ethical and moral issues have created a desire for a world without war or, at least, a demand that contemporary armed conflicts, if unavoidable, at least have to be far less lethal forcing the military to seek new technologies that can minimise civilian casualties and collateral damage. Non-Lethal Weapons (NLW) – weapons that are intended to minimise civilian casualties and collateral damage – are based on the technology that, during the 1990s, was expected to revolutionise the conduct of warfare making it significantly less deadly. The rapid rise of interest in NLW, ignited by the American military twenty five years ago, sparked off an entirely new military, as well as an academic, discourse concerning their potential contribution to military success on the 21st century battlefields. It seems, however, that except for this debate, very little has been done within the military forces themselves. This research suggests that the roots of this situation are much deeper than the simple professional misconduct of the military establishment, or the poor political behaviour of political leaders, who had sent them to fight. Following the story of NLW in the U.S., Russia and Israel this research focuses on the political and cultural aspects that have been supposed to force the military organisations of these countries to adopt new technologies and operational and organisational concepts regarding NLW in an attempt to minimise enemy civilian casualties during their military operations. This research finds that while American, Russian and Israeli national characters are, undoubtedly, products of the unique historical experience of each one of these nations, all of three pay very little regard to foreigners’ lives. Moreover, while it is generally argued that the international political pressure is a crucial factor that leads to the significant reduction of harmed civilians and destroyed civilian infrastructure, the findings of this research suggest that the American, Russian and Israeli governments are well prepared and politically equipped to fend off international criticism. As the analyses of the American, Russian and Israeli cases reveal, the political-military leaderships of these countries have very little external or domestic reasons to minimise enemy civilian casualties through fundamental-revolutionary change in their conduct of war. In other words, this research finds that employment of NLW have failed because the political leadership asks the militaries to reduce the enemy civilian casualties to a politically acceptable level, rather than to the technologically possible minimum; as in the socio-cultural-political context of each country, support for the former appears to be significantly higher than for the latter.

The value of a saved tree : The lifecycle of CO2-emissions associated with the combination of printing paper and electricity production of wood in the U.S. and Sweden

The pulp- and paper production is a very energy intensive industry sector. Both Sweden and the U.S. are major pulpandpaper producers. This report examines the energy and the CO2-emission connected with the pulp- and paperindustry for the two countries from a lifecycle perspective.New technologies make it possible to increase the electricity production in the integrated pulp- andpaper mill through black liquor gasification and a combined cycle (BLGCC). That way, the mill canproduce excess electricity, which can be sold and replace electricity produced in power plants. In thisprocess the by-products that are formed at the pulp-making process is used as fuel to produce electricity.In pulp- and paper mills today the technology for generating energy from the by-product in aTomlinson boiler is not as efficient as it could be compared to the BLGCC technology. Scenarios havebeen designed to investigate the results from using the BLGCC technique using a life cycle analysis.Two scenarios are being represented by a 1994 mill in the U.S. and a 1994 mill in Sweden.The scenariosare based on the average energy intensity of pulp- and paper mills as operating in 1994 in the U.S.and Sweden respectively. The two other scenarios are constituted by a »reference mill« in the U.S. andSweden using state-of-the-art technology. We investigate the impact of varying recycling rates and totalenergy use and CO2-emissions from the production of printing and writing paper. To economize withthe wood and that way save trees, we can use the trees that are replaced by recycling in a biomassgasification combined cycle (BIGCC) to produce electricity in a power station. This produces extra electricitywith a lower CO2 intensity than electricity generated by, for example, coal-fired power plants.The lifecycle analysis in this thesis also includes the use of waste treatment in the paper lifecycle. Both Sweden and theU.S. are countries that recycle paper. Still there is a lot of paper waste, this paper is a part of the countries municipalsolid waste (MSW). A lot of the MSW is landfilled, but parts of it are incinerated to extract electricity. The thesis hasdesigned special scenarios for the use of MSW in the lifecycle analysis.This report is studying and comparing two different countries and two different efficiencies on theBLGCC in four different scenarios. This gives a wide survey and points to essential parameters to specificallyreflect on, when making assumptions in a lifecycle analysis. The report shows that there arethree key parameters that have to be carefully considered when making a lifecycle analysis of wood inan energy and CO2-emission perspective in the pulp- and paper mill in the U.S. and in Sweden. First,there is the energy efficiency in the pulp- and paper mill, then the efficiency of the BLGCC and last theCO2 intensity of the electricity displaced by BIGCC or BLGCC generatedelectricity. It also show that with the current technology that we havetoday, it is possible to produce CO2 free paper with a waste paper amountup to 30%. The thesis discusses the system boundaries and the assumptions.Further and more detailed research, including amongst others thesystem boundaries and forestry, is recommended for more specificanswers.

Stock Markets and Household Wealth: Can a Stock Market Crash Cause a Recession in The U.S. Economy?

Stock market wealth effects on the level of consumption in the United States economy have been constantly debated; there is evidence for arguments for and against its prominence and its symmetry. This paper seeks to investigate the strength of its negative effect by creating models to analyze unexpected shocks to the Standard and Poor's 500 index. First, a transmission mechanism between the stock market and GDP is established through the use of second-order vector autoregressive models. Following which, theory from the life cycle model and adaptations of previous researchers' models are used to create a structural model. This paper finds that stock market wealth effects are small, but important to consider, especially if markets are overpriced; this claim is corroborated by evidence from simulation of 'alternative scenarios' and the historical experiences of 1987 and 2001.

Access to Latin American and Caribbean exports in the U.S. market 2001-2002

Access to Latin American and Caribbean Exports in the United States market, 2001-2002 is the seventh annual report released by the ECLAC Washington Office, updating information contained in previous reports. Its aim is to compile and make available information on trade inhibiting measures that Latin American and Caribbean exports encounter in the United States market. This report needs to be placed in the context of a trade relationship between the United States and Latin America and the Caribbean, which has grown strongly over the years to the benefit of both economies. Moreover, it must be viewed against the background of the commitment to achieve the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), through which barriers to trade and investment will be progressively eliminated. In this regard, it is hoped that this report will further contribute to transparency and the elimination of obstacles to the free flow of trade in the Americas. The classification of trade inhibiting measures follows the definition used in the U.S. Trade Representatives (USTR) yearly publication National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers. Based on this structure, the report focuses on the three areas of greatest relevance for Latin America and the Caribbean: Imports Policies (e.g., tariffs and other import charges, quantitative restrictions, import licensing, customs barriers). Standards, testing, labeling and certification (e.g., unnecessarily restrictive application of phytosanitary standards). Export subsidies (e.g., export financing on preferential terms and agricultural export subsidies that displace other foreign exports in third country markets).

Access of Latin American and Caribbean exports in the U.S. market 2002-2003

Access to Latin American and Caribbean Exports in the United States market, 2001-2002 is the eighth annual report released by the ECLAC Washington Office, updating information contained in previous reports. Its aim is to compile and make available information on trade inhibiting measures that Latin American and Caribbean exports encounter in the United States market. This report needs to be placed in the context of a trade relationship between the United States and Latin America and the Caribbean, which has grown strongly over the years to the benefit of both economies. Moreover, it must be viewed against the background of the commitment to achieve the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), through which barriers to trade and investment will be progressively eliminated. In this regard, it is hoped that this report will further contribute to transparency and the elimination of obstacles to the free flow of trade in the Americas. The classification of trade inhibiting measures follows the definition used in the U.S. Trade Representatives (USTR) yearly publication National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers. Based on this structure, the report focuses on the three areas of greatest relevance for Latin America and the Caribbean: Imports Policies (e.g., tariffs and other import charges, quantitative restrictions, import licensing, customs barriers). Standards, testing, labeling and certification (e.g., unnecessarily restrictive application of phytosanitary standards). Export subsidies (e.g., export financing on preferential terms and agricultural export subsidies that displace other foreign exports in third country markets).

Land Use and Transfer Plans in the U.S. Great Plains

In the next decades, aging farmers in the United States will make decisions that affect almost 1 billion acres of land. The future of this land will become more uncertain as farm transfer becomes more difficult, potentially changing the structure of agriculture through farm consolidation, changes in farm ownership and management, or taking land out of production. The Great Plains Population and Environment Project interviewed farmers and their spouses between 1997 and 1999. Farm Family Survey participants were ambiguous about their plans to leave farming, transfer land to others, and even long-term land use, largely due to concerns about the continued economic viability of farming. Participants living far from metropolitan areas expected to sell or rent to other farmers, while those near residential real-estate markets expected to sell to developers. Delays in planning for retirement and succession were common, further threatening the success of intergenerational transitions.

Sex Trafficking of Minors in the U.S.: Implications for Policy, Prevention and Research

Context: Information currently available on the trafficking of minors in the U.S. for commercial sexual exploitation includes approximations of the numbers involved, risk factors that increase the likelihood of victimization and methods of recruitment and control. However, specific characteristics about this vulnerable population remain largely unknown. Objective: This article has two distinct purposes. The first is to provide the reader with an overview of available information on minor sex trafficking in the U.S. The second is to present findings and discuss policy, research, and educational implications from secondary data analysis of 115 cases of minor sex trafficking in the U.S. Design: Minor sex trafficking cases were identified through two main venues - a review of U.S. Department of Justice press releases of human trafficking cases and an online search of media reports. Searches covered the time period from October 28, 2000, which coincided with the passage of the VTVPA through October 31, 2009. Cases were included in analysis if the incident involved at least one victim under the age of 18, occurred in the U.S., and at least one perpetrator had been arrested, indicted, or convicted. Results: A total of 115 separate incidents involving at least 153 victims were located. These occurrences involved 215 perpetrators, with the majority of them having been convicted (n = 117, 53.4%), The number of victims involved in a single incident ranged from 1 to 9. Over 90% of victims were female who ranged in age from 5 to 17 years. There were more U.S. minor victims than those from other countries. Victims had been in captivity from less than 6 months to 5 years. Minors most commonly fell into exploitation through some type of false promise indicated (16.3%, n = 25), followed by kidnapping (9.8%, n = 15). Over a fifth of the sample (22.2%, n = 34) were abused through two commercial sex practices, with almost all (94.1%, n = 144) used in prostitution. One of every five victims (24.8%, n = 38) had been advertised on an Internet website. Conclusions: Results of a review of known information about minor sex trafficking and findings from analysis of 115 incidents of the sex trafficking of youth in the U.S. indicate a need for stronger legislation to educate various professional groups, more comprehensive services for victims, stricter laws for pimps and traffickers, and preventive educational interventions beginning at a young age.

A longitudinal comparison of cardiovascular disease risk factors among children and adolescents in the U.S. and Japan: Project HeartBeat!

Blood cholesterol and blood pressure development in childhood and adolescence have important impact on the future adult level of cholesterol and blood pressure, and on increased risk of cardiovascular diseases. The U.S. has higher mortality rates of coronary heart diseases than Japan. A longitudinal comparison in children of risk factor development in the two countries provides more understanding about the causes of cardiovascular disease and its prevention. Such comparisons have not been reported in the past. ^ In Project HeartBeat!, 506 non-Hispanic white, 136 black and 369 Japanese children participated in the study in the U.S. and Japan from 1991 to 1995. A synthetic cohort of ages 8 to 18 years was composed by three cohorts with starting ages at 8, 11, and 14. A multilevel regression model was used for data analysis. ^ The study revealed that the Japanese children had significantly higher slopes of mean total cholesterol (TC) and high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels than the U.S. children after adjusting for age and sex. The mean TC level of Japanese children was not significantly different from white and black children. The mean HDL level of Japanese children was significantly higher than white and black children after adjusting for age and sex. The ratio of HDL/TC in Japanese children was significantly higher than in U.S. whites, but not significantly different from the black children. The Japanese group had significantly lower mean diastolic blood pressure phase IV (DBP4) and phase V (DBP5) than the two U.S. groups. The Japanese group also showed significantly higher slopes in systolic blood pressure, DBP5 and DBP4 during the study period than both U.S. groups. The differences were independent from height and body mass index. ^ The study provided the first longitudinal comparison of blood cholesterol and blood pressure between the U.S. and Japanese children and adolescents. It revealed the dynamic process of these factors in the three ethnic groups. ^

Trade Versus Culture in the Digital Environment : An Old Conflict in Need of a New Definition

Following the recent UNESCO Convention on the Protection and Promotion of the Diversity of Cultural Expressions, the first wave of scholarly work has focused on clarifying the interface between the Convention and the WTO Agreements. Building upon these analyses, the present article takes however a different stance. It seeks a new, rather pragmatic definition of the relationship between trade and culture and argues that such a re-definition is particularly needed in the digital networked environment that has modified the ways markets for cultural content function and the ways in which cultural content is created, distributed and accessed. The article explores first the significance of the UNESCO Convention (or the lack thereof) and subsequently outlines a variety of ways in which the WTO framework can be improved in a ‘neutral’, not necessarily culturally motivated, manner to become more conducive to the pursuit of cultural diversity and taking into account the changed reality of digital media. The article also looks at other facets of the profoundly fragmented culture-related regulatory framework and underscores the critical importance of intellectual property rights and of other domains that appear at first sight peripheral to the trade and culture discussion, such as access to infrastructure, interoperability or net neutrality. It is argued that a number of feasible solutions exist beyond the politically charged confrontation of trade versus culture and that the new digital media landscape may require a readjustment of the priorities and the tools for the achievement of the widely accepted objective of cultural diversity.