Predictive ability of an early diagnostic guess in patients presenting with chest pain; a longitudinal descriptive study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The intuitive early diagnostic guess could play an important role in reaching a final diagnosis. However, no study to date has attempted to quantify the importance of general practitioners' (GPs) ability to correctly appraise the origin of chest pain within the first minutes of an encounter. METHODS: The validation study was nested in a multicentre cohort study with a one year follow-up and included 626 successive patients who presented with chest pain and were attended by 58 GPs in Western Switzerland. The early diagnostic guess was assessed prior to a patient's history being taken by a GP and was then compared to a diagnosis of chest pain observed over the next year. RESULTS: Using summary measures clustered at the GP's level, the early diagnostic guess was confirmed by further investigation in 51.0% (CI 95%; 49.4% to 52.5%) of patients presenting with chest pain. The early diagnostic guess was more accurate in patients with a life threatening illness (65.4%; CI 95% 64.5% to 66.3%) and in patients who did not feel anxious (62.9%; CI 95% 62.5% to 63.3%). The predictive abilities of an early diagnostic guess were consistent among GPs. CONCLUSIONS: The GPs early diagnostic guess was correct in one out of two patients presenting with chest pain. The probability of a correct guess was higher in patients with a life-threatening illness and in patients not feeling anxious about their pain.

Predictive value of anti-neutrophil cygtoplasmic antibodies (ANCA) in small vessel vasculitis

Résumé Valeur prédictive des anticorps dirigés contre le cytoplasme des neutrophiles (ANCA) dans les vasculites des vaisseaux de petit calibre But du travail : Les vasculites sont des pathologies le plus souvent sévères et parfois létales ; elles nécessitent une reconnaissance et un traitement précoces. Il est donc utile de pouvoir disposer de marqueurs diagnostiques, et éventuellement de marqueurs qui puissent prédire l'activité de la maladie. Les « antineutrophil cytoplasm antibodies » (ANCA) constituent une famille d'autoanticorps dirigés contre des antigènes du cytoplasme des neutrophiles, cellules clés du processus inflammatoire au cours des vasculites. De nombreuses études ont tenté de préciser l'utilité des ANCA dans le diagnostic et le suivi des vasculites avec des résultats contradictoires. Le but de ce travail a été de passer en revue l'évolution clinique des patients suivis dans notre service pour une vasculite à ANCA et évaluer la valeur prédictive des ANCA comme marqueur de récidive. Méthode: Les dossiers médicaux de 36 patients, suivis à notre consultation ambulatoire d'immunologie et allergie du CHUV pour une vasculite à ANCA entre janvier 1990 et décembre 2001, ont été analysés de manière rétrospective afin d'établir une base de données. Les données démographiques, le type de vasculite (granulomatose de Wegener ou polyangéite microscopique) et ses caractéristiques (organes touchés), les traitements reçus, les dosages des ANCA (par immunofluorescence et par ELISA avec détermination des anti-PR3 et/ou anti-MPO), et l'évolution clinique (récidive/rémission) ont été considérés. La valeur pronostique des ANCA dans notre population a été calculée utilisant les valeurs prédictives positive et négative, la likelihood et les odds ratios. La valeur statistique a été examinée par les tests Chi-square test ou Fisher's exact test (valeur significative définie comme p <0.05) à l'aide du programme GraphPad Instat software version 3, San Diego, CA. Résultats : Vingt-trois patients atteints d'une maladie de Wegener et treize d'une polyangéite microscopique ont été suivis pour une durée médiane de cinq ans (entre 1 mois et 16 ans). La plupart des patients ont été traités avec des corticostéroïdes associés à du cyclophosphamide. Une rémission a été obtenue chez 21 patients (91 %) atteints d'une maladie de Wegener, mais 74% ont présenté par la suite une récidive. Tous les patients atteints d'une polyangéite microscopique sont entrés en rémission et 33% ont par la suite récidivé. Une élévation persistante (définie comme supérieure à 6 mois) des ANCA ne s'est pas révélée associée à un risque statistiquement significatif de récidive (p=0.14). En revanche, une élévation soudaine du taux des ANCA s'est démontrée prédictive d'une récidive (table 3). Conclusion : Durant le suivi de certaines vasculites, comme la granulomatose de Wegener et la polyangéite microscopique une élévation des ANCA doit faire redouter une exacerbation de la maladie et, par conséquent, justifie une surveillance accrue.

Predictive value of Glasgow Coma Scale after brain trauma: change in trend over the past ten years.

BACKGROUND: Age and the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score on admission are considered important predictors of outcome after traumatic brain injury. We investigated the predictive value of the GCS in a large group of patients whose computerised multimodal bedside monitoring data had been collected over the previous 10 years. METHODS: Data from 358 subjects with head injury, collected between 1992 and 2001, were analysed retrospectively. Patients were grouped according to year of admission. Glasgow Outcome Scores (GOS) were determined at six months. Spearman's correlation coefficients between GCS and GOS scores were calculated for each year. RESULTS: On average 34 (SD: 7) patients were monitored every year. We found a significant correlation between the GCS and GOS for the first five years (overall 1992-1996: r = 0.41; p<0.00001; n = 183) and consistent lack of correlations from 1997 onwards (overall 1997-2001: r = 0.091; p = 0.226; n = 175). In contrast, correlations between age and GOS were in both time periods significant and similar (r = -0.24 v r = -0.24; p<0.002). CONCLUSIONS: The admission GCS lost its predictive value for outcome in this group of patients from 1997 onwards. The predictive value of the GCS should be carefully reconsidered when building prognostic models incorporating multimodality monitoring after head injury.

Predisposing and precipitating factors of delirium after cardiac surgery: a prospective observational cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To comprehensively assess pre-, intra-, and postoperative delirium risk factors as potential targets for intervention. BACKGROUND: Delirium after cardiac surgery is associated with longer intensive care unit (ICU) stay, and poorer functional and cognitive outcomes. Reports on delirium risk factors so far did not cover the full range of patients' presurgical conditions, intraoperative factors, and postoperative course. METHODS: After written informed consent, 221 consecutive patients ≥ 50 years scheduled for cardiac surgery were assessed for preoperative cognitive performance, and functional and physical status. Clinical and biochemical data were systematically recorded perioperatively. RESULTS: Of the 215 patients remaining for analysis, 31% developed delirium in the intensive care unit. Using logistic regression models, older age [73.3 (71.2-75.4) vs 68.5 (67.0-70.0); P = 0.016], higher Charlson's comorbidity index [3.0 (1.5-4.0) vs 2.0 (1.0-3.0) points; P = 0.009], lower Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score (MMSE, [27 (23-29) vs 28 (27-30) points; P = 0.021], length of cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) [CPB; 133 (112-163) vs 119 (99-143) min; P = 0.004], and systemic inflammatory response syndrome in the intensive care unit [25 (36.2%) vs 13 (8.9%); P = 0.001] were independently associated with delirium. Combining age, MMSE score, Charlson's comorbidity index, and length of CPB in a regression equation allowed for a prediction of postoperative delirium with a sensitivity of 71.19% and a specificity of 76.26% (receiver operating analysis, area under the curve: 0.791; 95% confidence interval: 0.727-0.845). CONCLUSIONS: Further research will evaluate if modification of these risk factors prevents delirium and improves outcomes.

Risk factors of obesity and their determinants in preschool children (the Swiss Ballabeina study)

This thesis has been conducted in the context of a lifestyle intervention in 40 Swiss kindergarten classes in the cantons St. Gallen and Vaud, in areas with a high migrant prevalence (Ballabeina study). The main objective of this work was to fill certain gaps of the literature and to bring a better understanding of the risk factors of overweight and obesity and their determinants in preschool children. Our data show that parental migrant status and educational level influence independently of each other adiposity and/or eating habits in these children. In addition, sports club participation at this young age seems to be a better indicator of healthy lifestyle characteristics in terms of physical activity, sedentary behaviour and eating habits than weight status. Finally, we found that in this population higher scores of hyperactivity/inattention are associated with lower adiposity and with both healthy (more physical activity and less sedentary activity) and unhealthy (more television viewing and more unhealthy eating habits) lifestyle characteristics. Thus, our findings can be used by different actors of health and education system to better target their preventive actions and can serve as a basis for future complementary researches. - Cette thèse a été réalisée dans le cadre d'un projet de promotion de la santé mené dans 40 classes enfantines suisses issues de régions à forte prévalence migrante des cantons de St. Gall et de Vaud (étude Ballabeina). L'objectif principal de ce travail était de combler certaines lacunes de la littérature et d'approfondir nos connaissances sur les facteurs de risque du surpoids et de l'obésité et de leurs déterminants chez les enfants d'âge préscolaire. Nos analyses montrent que le statut de migrant des parents et leur niveau d'éducation influencent indépendamment l'un de l'autres l'adiposité et les habitudes alimentaires chez ces enfants. De plus, à ce jeune âge la participation dans un club de sport semble être un meilleur indicateur de style de vie sain en termes d'activité physique, de comportements sédentaires et d'habitudes alimentaires que le statut pondéral. Nous avons également trouvé que dans cette population, un score plus élevé d'hyperactivité/inattention est associé aussi bien à des caractéristiques de style de vie saines (plus d'activité physique, moins d'activité sédentaire) que malsaines (plus de consommation de télévision et moins bonnes habitudes alimentaire. Ainsi, nos résultats peuvent aider les différents acteurs de la santé et de l'éducation à mieux cibler leurs actions de prévention et servir de base à de futures recherches complémentaires.

Sentinel lymph node involvement and a high Breslow index are independent factors of risk for early relapse of melanoma

Rapport de synthèse : Le ganglion sentinelle (GS) se défini comme le premier ganglion de la chaîne ganglionnaire qui draine le territoire anatomique où siège une tumeur et, par conséquent, celui ayant le plus de possibilités de recevoir des métastases. La combinaison des deux techniques de détection du GS existantes, lymphoscintigraphie et coloration, permettent de déceler le GS dans 95-100% des cas. Le taux d'attente métastatique du GS varie entre 16 et 21 % des patients. Dans 50 à 87% des cas, le GS est le seul site de métastase et la probabilité de trouver des micro-métastases dans des ganglions appartenant aux relais supérieurs sans atteinte du GS est estimée à moins de 2%. Ces chiffres relèvent l'importance de la détection du GS. L'emploi de cette technique offre de nombreux avantages par rapport à la lymphadénéctomie élective que nous décrirons. Selon Rousseau et al., il existe une probable association entre le statut du GS et la survie de la maladie. Cette interprétation et celles d'autres auteurs soulignent la pertinence clinique du statut du GS dans le mélanome. En ce qui concerne la survie sans maladie (DFS) et la survie globale (OS), aucune différence significative n'a été observée entre les patients ayant subi une résection complète immédiate des ganglions lymphatiques et ceux qui d'abord ont subi une résection chirurgicale et analyse du GS secondaire, suivies par une dissection élective en cas de positivité. L'objectif de cette étude prospective était d'évaluer la pertinence de la positivité tumorale du GS dans l'évaluation des risques de rechute du mélanome. Cette étude a confirmé l'intérêt de la scintigraphie des ganglions lymphatiques (associée à la technique de coloration par bleu et celle de détection par sonde portable) dans l'identification du GS comme approche thérapeutique au stade précoce du mélanome. Elle a montré, en autre, que le statut du GS et l'indice de Breslow sont des facteurs de risque indépendants importants de rechute chez des patients atteints d'un mélanome au stade précoce. La combinaison de ces deux paramètres a permis de créer des groupes de patients à risque de rechute différents qui pourraient conduire à l'adaptation des protocoles de thérapie en fonction de ces risques.

Predictors of favorable results in pulmonary tuberculosis treatment (Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil, 2001-2004)

Based on data available in the Information System for Notifiable Diseases, predictive factors of favorable results were identified in the treatment of pulmonary tuberculosis, diagnosed between 2001 and 2004 and living in Recife-PE, Brazil. Uni- and multivariate logistic regression methods were used. In multivariate analysis, the following factors remained: Age (years), 0 to 9 (OR=4.27; p=0.001) and 10 to 19 (OR=1.78; p=0.011), greater chance of cure than over 60; Education (years), 8 to 11 (OR=1.52; p=0.049), greater chance of cure than no education; Type of entry, new cases (OR=3.31; p<0.001) and relapse (OR=3.32; p<0.001), greater chances of cure than restart after abandonment; Time (months) 2, 5-|6 (OR=9.15; p<0.001); 6-|9 (OR=27.28; p<0.001) and More than 9 (OR=24.78; p<0.001), greater chances of cure than less than 5; Health Unit District, DS I (OR=1.60; p=0.018) and DS IV (OR=2.87; p<0.001), greater chances of cure than DS VI.

Social and medical vulnerability factors of emergency department frequent users in a universal health insurance system.

OBJECTIVES: The objectives were to identify the social and medical factors associated with emergency department (ED) frequent use and to determine if frequent users were more likely to have a combination of these factors in a universal health insurance system. METHODS: This was a retrospective chart review case-control study comparing randomized samples of frequent users and nonfrequent users at the Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland. The authors defined frequent users as patients with four or more ED visits within the previous 12 months. Adult patients who visited the ED between April 2008 and March 2009 (study period) were included, and patients leaving the ED without medical discharge were excluded. For each patient, the first ED electronic record within the study period was considered for data extraction. Along with basic demographics, variables of interest included social (employment or housing status) and medical (ED primary diagnosis) characteristics. Significant social and medical factors were used to construct a logistic regression model, to determine factors associated with frequent ED use. In addition, comparison of the combination of social and medical factors was examined. RESULTS: A total of 359 of 1,591 frequent and 360 of 34,263 nonfrequent users were selected. Frequent users accounted for less than a 20th of all ED patients (4.4%), but for 12.1% of all visits (5,813 of 48,117), with a maximum of 73 ED visits. No difference in terms of age or sex occurred, but more frequent users had a nationality other than Swiss or European (n = 117 [32.6%] vs. n = 83 [23.1%], p = 0.003). Adjusted multivariate analysis showed that social and specific medical vulnerability factors most increased the risk of frequent ED use: being under guardianship (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 15.8; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.7 to 147.3), living closer to the ED (adjusted OR = 4.6; 95% CI = 2.8 to 7.6), being uninsured (adjusted OR = 2.5; 95% CI = 1.1 to 5.8), being unemployed or dependent on government welfare (adjusted OR = 2.1; 95% CI = 1.3 to 3.4), the number of psychiatric hospitalizations (adjusted OR = 4.6; 95% CI = 1.5 to 14.1), and the use of five or more clinical departments over 12 months (adjusted OR = 4.5; 95% CI = 2.5 to 8.1). Having two of four social factors increased the odds of frequent ED use (adjusted = OR 5.4; 95% CI = 2.9 to 9.9), and similar results were found for medical factors (adjusted OR = 7.9; 95% CI = 4.6 to 13.4). A combination of social and medical factors was markedly associated with ED frequent use, as frequent users were 10 times more likely to have three of them (on a total of eight factors; 95% CI = 5.1 to 19.6). CONCLUSIONS: Frequent users accounted for a moderate proportion of visits at the Lausanne ED. Social and medical vulnerability factors were associated with frequent ED use. In addition, frequent users were more likely to have both social and medical vulnerabilities than were other patients. Case management strategies might address the vulnerability factors of frequent users to prevent inequities in health care and related costs.

Valeur prédictive de la surexpression/ amplification de Her2/neu pour un traitement ciblé du cancer du sein [Predictive value of Her2/neu expression/amplification for the targeted treatment of breast cancer]

Her2/neu is a tyrosine kinase receptor which stimulates cell growth. The receptor is overexpressed in about 20% of breast cancers. Her2/neu expression is an indicator of poor prognosis but also the target of the treatment of breast cancer using humanised anti-Her2/ neu antibodies. Only cancers overexpressing the protein will respond to this therapy, but which has significant (cardiac) side effects and is expensive. It is therefore important to test for the overexpression of the protein on breast cancer cells. This paper discusses how this can be done and ongoing research into new therapeutic options targeting the involved signaling pathways.

Ability for self-care and its association with sociodemographic factors of people with spinal cord injury

This study aimed to verify the association between self-care ability and sociodemographic factors of people with spinal cord injury (SCI). It was a cross-sectional study, conducted in 2012, in all 58 Basic Health Units of Natal/RN, Brazil. Seventy-three subjects completed a sociodemographic form andSelf-Care Agency Scale. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS,including Cronbach’s Alpha, Chi-square, Fisher’s and contingency coefficient tests. The Cronbach's alpha was 0.788. The result verified that sex (p = 0.028), religion (p <0.001), education (p = 0.046), current age (p = 0.027), SCI time (p = 0.020) and the SCI type (p = 0.012) were variables associated with self-care ability of the subjects. It was concluded that sociodemographic factors may interfere with the self-care ability of persons with SCI, and nurses should consider this aspect during the execution of the nursing process.

Correlation between the infestation level of Sitophilus zeamais Motschulsky, 1855 (Coleoptera, Curculionidae) and the quality factors of stored corn, Zea mays L. (Poaceae)

This experiment was carried out in order to evaluate the effect of Sitophilus zeamais on physical, physiological and sanitary quality of stored corn. Samples of 500 g of the hybrid OC-705, in three replicates, were conditioned in glasses covered with a screened lid, and kept in chamber at 25±2ºC, 70±5% RH and 12 h of photophase, for 150 days. The infestation levels were 0, 5, 15 and 50 adults/replicate, for the storage periods of 30, 60, 90, 120 and 150 days. The moisture content, classification, weight loss, germination and internal infestation were evaluated monthly. Significant inverse correlations were verified between the number of insects and both the germination and the weight loss; also between the internal infestation and the germination and the standard type. The presence of S. zeamais showed a positive correlation with the weight loss, what means that the internal and external infestations contribute to the reduction of physiological and physical quality of corn seeds. The mean dry matter loss was 0,36%/day, corresponding to a consumption of 0,0001%/insect/month. As the result of those damages, the product suffered reduction of the commercial grade in 30 days, with significant loss in all quality factors.

Evaluating predictive densities of U.S. output growth and inflation in a large macroeconomic data set

We evaluate conditional predictive densities for U.S. output growth and inflationusing a number of commonly used forecasting models that rely on a large number ofmacroeconomic predictors. More specifically, we evaluate how well conditional predictive densities based on the commonly used normality assumption fit actual realizationsout-of-sample. Our focus on predictive densities acknowledges the possibility that, although some predictors can improve or deteriorate point forecasts, they might have theopposite effect on higher moments. We find that normality is rejected for most modelsin some dimension according to at least one of the tests we use. Interestingly, however,combinations of predictive densities appear to be correctly approximated by a normaldensity: the simple, equal average when predicting output growth and Bayesian modelaverage when predicting inflation.

LIF and sIL-2R plasma concentrations in IVF patients on the day of embryo transfer: predictive markers of IVF outcome.

Successful implantation is still the limiting step in IVF. We hypothesized that maternal plasma concentrations of certain cytokines at the time of embryo transfer could predict the likelihood of successful implantation and pregnancy. sIL-2R, IL-6, LIF, and MMP2 concentrations were measured in plasma from 160 IVF patients (natural and stimulated IVF cycles) on the morning of the embryo transfer (ET0) and 14days later (ET+14). Patients were ultimately subdivided into four groups depending on the IVF treatment outcome (pregnancy failure, biochemical pregnancy, first-trimester miscarriage and normal term delivery). In natural and stimulated IVF cycles at ET0, sIL-2R concentrations were threefold higher in biochemical pregnancies than in pregnancy failures (P=0.020), and in natural cycles only, 2.5-fold higher in normal term deliveries than in pregnancy failures (P=0.023). Conversely, in natural and stimulated IVF cycles at ET0, LIF concentrations were one third lower in biochemical pregnancies/first-trimester miscarriages compared with pregnancy failures (P=0.042). We suggest that high sIL-2R and low LIF concentrations in maternal plasma on the morning of the embryo transfer might be associated with increased risks of early pregnancy loss, while a basal level of sIL-2R is necessary for normal term delivery outcome. Both cytokine measurements might therefore be useful in the management of IVF patients, and modulation of their concentrations could be investigated as a therapeutic alternative for women with abnormal concentrations at the time of embryo transfer.

A test of the predictive validity of non-linear QALY models using time trade-off utilities

This paper presents a test of the predictive validity of various classes ofQALY models (i.e., linear, power and exponential models). We first estimatedTTO utilities for 43 EQ-5D chronic health states and next these states wereembedded in health profiles. The chronic TTO utilities were then used topredict the responses to TTO questions with health profiles. We find that thepower QALY model clearly outperforms linear and exponential QALY models.Optimal power coefficient is 0.65. Our results suggest that TTO-based QALYcalculations may be biased. This bias can be avoided using a power QALY model.