Craving mediates stress in predicting lapse during alcohol dependence treatment

Background Stress, craving, and depressed mood have all been implicated in alcohol use treatment lapses. Few studies have examined all 3 factors. Progress has been limited because of difficulties with craving assessment. The Alcohol Craving Experience Questionnaire (ACE) is a new measure of alcohol craving. It is both psychometrically sound and conceptually rigorous. This prospective study examines a stress–treatment response model that incorporates mediation by craving and moderation by depressed mood and pharmacotherapy. Methods Five hundred and thirty-nine consecutively treated alcohol-dependent patients voluntarily participated in an abstinence-based 12-week cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) program at a hospital alcohol and drug outpatient clinic. Measures of stress, craving, depressed mood, and alcohol dependence severity were administered prior to treatment. Treatment lapse and treatment dropout were assessed over the 12-week program duration. Results Patients reporting greater stress experienced stronger and more frequent cravings. Stronger alcohol craving predicted lapse, after controlling for dependence severity, stress, depression, and pharmacotherapy. Alcohol craving mediated stress to predict lapse. Depressed mood and anticraving medication were not significant moderators. Conclusions Among treatment seeking, alcohol-dependent patients, craving mediated the relationship between stress and lapse. The effect was not moderated by depressed mood or anticraving medication.

A model of social work classification in health care

The introduction of casemix funding for Australian acute health care services has challenged Social Work to demonstrate clear reporting mechanisms, demonstrate effective practice and to justify interventions provided. The term 'casemix' is used to describe the mix and type of patients treated by a hospital or other health care services. There is wide acknowledgement that the procedure-based system of Diagnosis Related Groupings (DRGs) is grounded in a medical/illness perspective and is unsatisfactory in describing and predicting the activity of Social Work and other allied health professions in health care service delivery. The National Allied Health Casemix Committee was established in 1991 as the peak body to represent allied health professions in matters related to casemix classification. This Committee has pioneered a nationally consistent, patient-centred information system for allied health. This paper describes the classification systems and codes developed for Social Work, which includes a minimum data set, a classification hierarchy, the set of activity (input) codes and 'indicator for intervention' codes. The advantages and limitations of the system are also discussed.

Predicting price-tag for customized goods

We discuss a dynamic pricing model which will aid automobile manufacturer in choosing the right price for customer segment. Though there is oligopoly market structure, the customers get "locked" into a particular technology/company which virtually makes the situation akin to a monopoly. There are associated network externalities and positive feedback. The key idea in monopoly pricing lies in extracting the customer surplus by exploiting the respective elasticities of demand. We present a Walrasian general equilibrium approach to determine the segment price. We compare the prices obtained from optimization model with that from Walrasian dynamics. The results are encouraging and can serve as a critical factor in Customer Relationship Management (CRM) and thereby effectively manage the lock-in.

A systems perspective of host-pathogen interactions: predicting disease outcome in tuberculosis

The complex web of interactions between the host immune system and the pathogen determines the outcome of any infection. A computational model of this interaction network, which encodes complex interplay among host and bacterial components, forms a useful basis for improving the understanding of pathogenesis, in filling knowledge gaps and consequently to identify strategies to counter the disease. We have built an extensive model of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis host-pathogen interactome, consisting of 75 nodes corresponding to host and pathogen molecules, cells, cellular states or processes. Vaccination effects, clearance efficiencies due to drugs and growth rates have also been encoded in the model. The system is modelled as a Boolean network. Virtual deletion experiments, multiple parameter scans and analysis of the system's response to perturbations, indicate that disabling processes such as phagocytosis and phagolysosome fusion or cytokines such as TNF-alpha and IFN-gamma, greatly impaired bacterial clearance, while removing cytokines such as IL-10 alongside bacterial defence proteins such as SapM greatly favour clearance. Simulations indicate a high propensity of the pathogen to persist under different conditions.

A systems perspective of host-pathogen interactions: predicting disease outcome in tuberculosis

The complex web of interactions between the host immune system and the pathogen determines the outcome of any infection. A computational model of this interaction network, which encodes complex interplay among host and bacterial components, forms a useful basis for improving the understanding of pathogenesis, in filling knowledge gaps and consequently to identify strategies to counter the disease. We have built an extensive model of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis host-pathogen interactome, consisting of 75 nodes corresponding to host and pathogen molecules, cells, cellular states or processes. Vaccination effects, clearance efficiencies due to drugs and growth rates have also been encoded in the model. The system is modelled as a Boolean network. Virtual deletion experiments, multiple parameter scans and analysis of the system's response to perturbations, indicate that disabling processes such as phagocytosis and phagolysosome fusion or cytokines such as TNF-alpha and IFN-gamma, greatly impaired bacterial clearance, while removing cytokines such as IL-10 alongside bacterial defence proteins such as SapM greatly favour clearance. Simulations indicate a high propensity of the pathogen to persist under different conditions.

The hard-particle model for a dense granular flow down an inclined plane

Perfectly hard particles are those which experience an infinite repulsive force when they overlap, and no force when they do not overlap. In the hard-particle model, the only static state is the isostatic state where the forces between particles are statically determinate. In the flowing state, the interactions between particles are instantaneous because the time of contact approaches zero in the limit of infinite particle stiffness. Here, we discuss the development of a hard particle model for a realistic granular flow down an inclined plane, and examine its utility for predicting the salient features both qualitatively and quantitatively. We first discuss Discrete Element simulations, that even very dense flows of sand or glass beads with volume fraction between 0.5 and 0.58 are in the rapid flow regime, due to the very high particle stiffness. An important length scale in the shear flow of inelastic particles is the `conduction length' delta = (d/(1 - e(2))(1/2)), where d is the particle diameter and e is the coefficient of restitution. When the macroscopic scale h (height of the flowing layer) is larger than the conduction length, the rates of shear production and inelastic dissipation are nearly equal in the bulk of the flow, while the rate of conduction of energy is O((delta/h)(2)) smaller than the rate of dissipation of energy. Energy conduction is important in boundary layers of thickness delta at the top and bottom. The flow in the boundary layer at the top and bottom is examined using asymptotic analysis. We derive an exact relationship showing that the a boundary layer solution exists only if the volume fraction in the bulk decreases as the angle of inclination is increased. In the opposite case, where the volume fraction increases as the angle of inclination is increased, there is no boundary layer solution. The boundary layer theory also provides us with a way of understanding the cessation of flow when at a given angle of inclination when the height of the layer is decreased below a value h(stop), which is a function of the angle of inclination. There is dissipation of energy due to particle collisions in the flow as well as due to particle collisions with the base, and the fraction of energy dissipation in the base increases as the thickness decreases. When the shear production in the flow cannot compensate for the additional energy drawn out of the flow due to the wall collisions, the temperature decreases to zero and the flow stops. Scaling relations can be derived for h(stop) as a function of angle of inclination.

Predicting the Timing of Spikes Evoked by Tactile Stimulation of the Hand

Kim SS, Sripati AP, Bensmaia SJ. Predicting the timing of spikes evoked by tactile stimulation of the hand. J Neurophysiol 104: 1484-1496, 2010. First published July 7, 2010; doi: 10.1152/jn.00187.2010. What does the hand tell the brain? Tactile stimulation of the hand evokes remarkably precise patterns of neural activity, suggesting that the timing of individual spikes may convey information. However, many aspects of the transformation of mechanical deformations of the skin into spike trains remain unknown. Here we describe an integrate-and-fire model that accurately predicts the timing of individual spikes evoked by arbitrary mechanical vibrations in three types of mechanoreceptive afferent fibers that innervate the hand. The model accounts for most known properties of the three fiber types, including rectification, frequency-sensitivity, and patterns of spike entrainment as a function of stimulus frequency. These results not only shed light on the mechanisms of mechanotransduction but can be used to provide realistic tactile feedback in upper-limb neuroprostheses.

A new Fuzzy-LOGIC based Model for Chlorophyll-a in Pulicat Lagoon, India

Coastal lagoons are complex ecosystems exhibiting a high degree of non-linearity in the distribution and exchange of nutrients dissolved in the water column due to their spatio-temporal characteristics. This factor has a direct influence on the concentrations of chlorophyll-a, an indicator of the primary productivity in the water bodies as lakes and lagoons. Moreover the seasonal variability in the characteristics of large-scale basins further contributes to the uncertainties in the data on the physico-chemical and biological characteristics of the lagoons. Considering the above, modelling the distributions of the nutrients with respect to the chlorophyll-concentrations, hence requires an effective approach which will appropriately account for the non-linearity of the ecosystem as well as the uncertainties in the available data. In the present investigation, fuzzy logic was used to develop a new model of the primary production for Pulicat lagoon, Southeast coast of India. Multiple regression analysis revealed that the concentrations of chlorophyll-a in the lagoon was highly influenced by the dissolved concentrations of nitrate, nitrites and phosphorous to different extents over different seasons and years. A high degree of agreement was obtained between the actual field values and those predicted by the new fuzzy model (d = 0.881 to 0.788) for the years 2005 and 2006, illustrating the efficiency of the model in predicting the values of chlorophyll-a in the lagoon.

Investigation of the characteristics of an SF6 rotating arc by a mathematical model

A mathematical model has been developed for predicting the performance of rotating arcs in SF6 gas by considering the energy balance and force balance equations. The finite difference technique has been adopted for the computer simulation of the arc characteristics. This method helps in considering the spatial variation of the transport and radiative properties of the arc. All the three heat loss mechanisms-conduction, convection, and radiation-have been considered. Results obtained over a 10 ms (half cycle of 50 Hz wave) current flow period for 1.4 kA (peak) and 4.2 kA (peak), show that the proposed arc model gives the expected behavior of the arc over the range of currents studied.

A Macroscopic Model for First Return Stroke of Lightning

A lightning return stroke model for a downward flash is proposed. The model includes underlying physical phenomena governing return stroke evolution, namely, electric field due to charge distributed along the leader and cloud, transient enhancement of series channel conductance at the bridging regime, and the nonlinear variation of channel conductance, which supports the return stroke current evolution. Thermal effects of free burning arc at the stroke wave front and its impact on channel conductance are studied. A first-order arc model for determining the dynamic channel conductance along with a field-dependent conductivity for corona sheath is used in the model. The model predicts consistent current propagation along the channel with regard to current amplitude and return stroke velocity. The model is also capable of predicting the remote electromagnetic fields that are consistent with the experimental observations.

Soft classification based Sub-pixel allocation model

Land cover (LC) refers to what is actually present on the ground and provide insights into the underlying solution for improving the conditions of many issues, from water pollution to sustainable economic development. One of the greatest challenges of modeling LC changes using remotely sensed (RS) data is of scale-resolution mismatch: that the spatial resolution of detail is less than what is required, and that this sub-pixel level heterogeneity is important but not readily knowable. However, many pixels consist of a mixture of multiple classes. The solution to mixed pixel problem typically centers on soft classification techniques that are used to estimate the proportion of a certain class within each pixel. However, the spatial distribution of these class components within the pixel remains unknown. This study investigates Orthogonal Subspace Projection - an unmixing technique and uses pixel-swapping algorithm for predicting the spatial distribution of LC at sub-pixel resolution. Both the algorithms are applied on many simulated and actual satellite images for validation. The accuracy on the simulated images is ~100%, while IRS LISS-III and MODIS data show accuracy of 76.6% and 73.02% respectively. This demonstrates the relevance of these techniques for applications such as urban-nonurban, forest-nonforest classification studies etc.

Voltage and Temperature-Aware SSTA Using Neural Network Delay Model

With the emergence of voltage scaling as one of the most powerful power reduction techniques, it has been important to support voltage scalable statistical static timing analysis (SSTA) in deep submicrometer process nodes. In this paper, we propose a single delay model of logic gate using neural network which comprehensively captures process, voltage, and temperature variation along with input slew and output load. The number of simulation programs with integrated circuit emphasis (SPICE) required to create this model over a large voltage and temperature range is found to be modest and 4x less than that required for a conventional table-based approach with comparable accuracy. We show how the model can be used to derive sensitivities required for linear SSTA for an arbitrary voltage and temperature. Our experimentation on ISCAS 85 benchmarks across a voltage range of 0.9-1.1V shows that the average error in mean delay is less than 1.08% and average error in standard deviation is less than 2.85%. The errors in predicting the 99% and 1% probability point are 1.31% and 1%, respectively, with respect to SPICE. The two potential applications of voltage-aware SSTA have been presented, i.e., one for improving the accuracy of timing analysis by considering instance-specific voltage drops in power grids and the other for determining optimum supply voltage for target yield for dynamic voltage scaling applications.

Parabolized stability equation models for predicting large-scale mixing noise of turbulent round jets

Parabolized stability equation (PSE) models are being deve loped to predict the evolu-tion of low-frequency, large-scale wavepacket structures and their radiated sound in high-speed turbulent round jets. Linear PSE wavepacket models were previously shown to be in reasonably good agreement with the amplitude envelope and phase measured using a microphone array placed just outside the jet shear layer. 1,2 Here we show they also in very good agreement with hot-wire measurements at the jet center line in the potential core,for a different set of experiments. 3 When used as a model source for acoustic analogy, the predicted far field noise radiation is in reasonably good agreement with microphone measurements for aft angles where contributions from large -scale structures dominate the acoustic field. Nonlinear PSE is then employed in order to determine the relative impor-tance of the mode interactions on the wavepackets. A series of nonlinear computations with randomized initial conditions are use in order to obtain bounds for the evolution of the modes in the natural turbulent jet flow. It was found that n onlinearity has a very limited impact on the evolution of the wavepackets for St≥0. 3. Finally, the nonlinear mechanism for the generation of a low-frequency mode as the difference-frequency mode 4,5 of two forced frequencies is investigated in the scope of the high Reynolds number jets considered in this paper.

Predicting the lithospheric stress field and plate motions by joint modeling of lithosphere and mantle dynamics

The way in which basal tractions, associated with mantle convection, couples with the lithosphere is a fundamental problem in geodynamics. A successful lithosphere-mantle coupling model for the Earth will satisfy observations of plate motions, intraplate stresses, and the plate boundary zone deformation. We solve the depth integrated three-dimensional force balance equations in a global finite element model that takes into account effects of both topography and shallow lithosphere structure as well as tractions originating from deeper mantle convection. The contribution from topography and lithosphere structure is estimated by calculating gravitational potential energy differences. The basal tractions are derived from a fully dynamic flow model with both radial and lateral viscosity variations. We simultaneously fit stresses and plate motions in order to delineate a best-fit lithosphere-mantle coupling model. We use both the World Stress Map and the Global Strain Rate Model to constrain the models. We find that a strongly coupled model with a stiff lithosphere and 3-4 orders of lateral viscosity variations in the lithosphere are best able to match the observational constraints. Our predicted deviatoric stresses, which are dominated by contribution from mantle tractions, range between 20-70 MPa. The best-fitting coupled models predict strain rates that are consistent with observations. That is, the intraplate areas are nearly rigid whereas plate boundaries and some other continental deformation zones display high strain rates. Comparison of mantle tractions and surface velocities indicate that in most areas tractions are driving, although in a few regions, including western North America, tractions are resistive. Citation: Ghosh, A., W. E. Holt, and L. M. Wen (2013), Predicting the lithospheric stress field and plate motions by joint modeling of lithosphere and mantle dynamics.

Predicting the extremes of Indian summer monsoon rainfall with coupled ocean-atmosphere models

An analysis of the retrospective predictions by seven coupled ocean atmosphere models from major forecasting centres of Europe and USA, aimed at assessing their ability in predicting the interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), particularly the extremes (i.e. droughts and excess rainfall seasons) is presented in this article. On the whole, the skill in prediction of extremes is not bad since most of the models are able to predict the sign of the ISMR anomaly for a majority of the extremes. There is a remarkable coherence between the models in successes and failures of the predictions, with all the models generating loud false alarms for the normal monsoon season of 1997 and the excess monsoon season of 1983. It is well known that the El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) play an important role in the interannual variation of ISMR and particularly the extremes. The prediction of the phases of these modes and their link with the monsoon has also been assessed. It is found that models are able to simulate ENSO-monsoon link realistically, whereas the EQUINOO-ISMR link is simulated realistically by only one model the ECMWF model. Furthermore, it is found that in most models this link is opposite to the observed, with the predicted ISMR being negatively (instead of positively) correlated with the rainfall over the western equatorial Indian Ocean and positively (instead of negatively) correlated with the rainfall over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Analysis of the seasons for which the predictions of almost all the models have large errors has suggested the facets of ENSO and EQUINOO and the links with the monsoon that need to be improved for improving monsoon predictions by these models.