An historical perspective on forecast errors

Using annual observations on industrial production over the last three centuries, and on GDP over a 100-year period, we seek an historical perspective on the forecastability of these UK output measures. The series are dominated by strong upward trends, so we consider various specifications of this, including the local linear trend structural time-series model, which allows the level and slope of the trend to vary. Our results are not unduly sensitive to how the trend in the series is modelled: the average sizes of the forecast errors of all models, and the wide span of prediction intervals, attests to a great deal of uncertainty in the economic environment. It appears that, from an historical perspective, the postwar period has been relatively more forecastable.

Impegno nero: Italian intellectuals and the African-American struggle

In the aftermath of the Second World War, Italian intellectuals participated in Italy’s reconstruction with an ideological commitment inspired by the African-American struggle for equal rights in the United States. Drawing on the work of many of the leading figures in postwar Italian culture, including Italo Calvino, Giorgio Caproni, Cesare Pavese, and Elio Vittorini, this essay argues that Italian intellectual impegno—defined as the effort to remake Italian culture and to guide Italian social reform—was united with a significant investment in the African-American cause. The author terms this tendency impegno nero and traces its development in the critical reception of African-American writers including W.E.B. DuBois, Langston Hughes, and Richard Wright. Postwar impegno nero is then contrasted with the treatment of African-American themes under Fascism, when commentators had likewise condemned American racism, but had paradoxically linked their laments for the plight of African Americans with defenses of the racial policies of the Fascist regime. Indeed, Fascist colonialism and anti-Semitism were both justified through references to what Fascist intellectuals believed to be America’s greater injustices. After 1945, in contrast, Italian intellectuals advocated an international, interdependent campaign for justice, symbolizing national reforms by projecting them onto an emblematic America. In this way, impegno nero revived and revised the celebrated "myth of America" that had developed in Italy between the world wars. Advancing a new, postwar myth, Italian intellectuals adopted the African-American struggle in order to reinforce their own efforts in the ongoing struggle for justice in Italy.

Paul Renner: the art of typography

The first study, in any language, of this German typographer and type designer. Renner’s work exemplifies central themes in German culture in the first half of the twentieth century. Starting as an artist and book designer in the Munich cultural renaissance, he was an early and prominent member of the Deutscher Werkbund. In the 1920s Renner worked in Frankfurt, one of the centres of socially-engaged modernism; around this time he began work on his enduring typeface, Futura. Moving to Munich, he ran the printing school that included Jan Tschichold among its teachers. In the crisis of 1933 he was detained and then dismissed from his post. Living through the Nazi years in inner emigration, Renner emer­ged as a voice of experience and reason in postwar debates.

The architectural edifice and the phantoms of history

Starting with the literal and physical role of the "ground," this article attempts to bring this "ground" into a discursive arena. In particular, the author is thinking about the period at the end of a war, the period in between destruction and reconstruction, exemplified in some classic postwar films in which the architecture of the city is in a state of ruin—deformed, eroded, and dark—but there is no further destruction. The article calls this period "a gap of history" and its investigation is set against a claim that architecture is a reconstructive practice, that it is enlightening and aspiring. History, on the other hand, is captured by scenes of the battlefield and dominated by a narrative of war and destruction. The article makes reference to the real and fantasy desire for destruction (war and history) and reconstruction (architecture), and how through the connecting plane of the ground architecture is entangled in war and history of destruction as it figures in reconstruction. Architecture is contingent on history as discursive—history that is not unified, fixed, or evolutionary but rather contested and rewritten within a conflictual battlefield.

Therapeutic Discourse and the American Public Philosophy: On American Liberalism's Troubled Relationship with Psychology

I explore the main currents of postwar American liberalism. One, sociological, emerged in response to the danger of mass movements. Articulated primarily by political sociologists and psychologists and ascendant from the mid-fifties till the mid-seventies, it heralded the "end of ideology." It emphasized stability, elitism, positive science and pluralism; it recast normatively sound politics as logrolling and hard bargaining. I argue that these normative features, attractive when considered in isolation, taken together led to a vicious ad hominem style in accounting for views outside the postwar consensus. It used pseudo-scientific literature in labeling populists, Progressives, Taft conservatives, Goldwaterites, the New Left and others "pathological," viz. mentally ill. Hence, "therapeutic discourse." I argue that philosophical liberalism, which reasserts the role of political theory in working out norms and adjudicating disagreement, is a more profitable way of thinking about and defending from critics liberalism. I take the philosopher John Rawls as the tradition's modern representative. This inquiry is important because the themes of sociological liberalism are making a comeback in American public discourse, and with them perhaps the baggage of therapeutic discourse. I present a cautionary tale.

Modernist Success in a Postmodern Failure: Jackson Pollock and Abstract Expressionism, the Avant-Garde and the Ascension of Late Capitalism, Art after 1945

It is hard to imagine the magnitude of the events at the end of World War II. The thought produced in the face of a myriad of deaths is almost unfeasible sixty years after the fact, but the energy was integral to the changing social landscape. Because of the country's prominence in and fortitude after the war, the U.S. was left responsible for reshaping and rejuvenating the international landscape that was destroyed by the years of brutal fighting and vile contestation. The American establishment was granted a major opportunity to establish itself amongst the global leaders. Such a grand responsibility must account for the multiplicity of thought that arises in such a decisive moment. In order to align the Abstract Expressionist art movement with the intersection of the intense, multifaceted thought developed during the postwar period, the following will discuss the political, philosophical, economic, and art historical overlap that occurred in the mid to late 1940s in the hopes of illustrating the fertility yet lingering problems associated with the restructuring of the world with America at the helm. In this way, the duration of the Abstract Expressionist moment will be better understood for both its triumphs and downfalls.

Generation B and the end of empire

Many scholars have traced the events and issues which accompanied the postwar decline in the British Empire and the changing nature of the Australian-British relationship. Most tell the story through a complex narrative of shifting foreign, defence and economic policies from the real separation between Australia and Britain occurred, when Britain tried unsuccessfully to enter the European Economic Community and when Australia assisted the United States at war in Vietnam. Others attempt to tell the story of the end of empire through intricate constitutional and legal discussions. But the real separation between Australia and Britain was far more complex and nuanced than it is possible to adequately explain, as David Lowe argues here.

Conversations with my mother

An intense and sometimes disturbing series of encounters between the filmmaker and his mother as they relive the traumatic years of his childhood and adolescence. Following the migration of the family to Australia from Holland in the difficult postwar years they had to grapple with problems of housing, social injustice and adjustment made more difficult by the father's mental illness. For the filmmaker 'the sentiment had to be uncompromisingly true' although he became aware that 'all film is fiction'.

Images of embodied old age in contemporary Japan

Since the late 1980s, representations of Japanese national identity and Japanese old age have been deconstructed. Images of the resilience of traditional cultural and social institutions are shown to have over-emphasized social and cultural homogeneity, elided social differentiation and inequality and minimized the significance of historical transformation. Key institutions of the postwar modernization project, including the patriarchal seniority system and household structure, are being transformed through globalization and feminization. This thesis focuses on the problem of representing individual and collective ageing in Japan in the context of modernization. Research is focussed on the contradictions, within essentialist representations of Japanese collective and individual identity, between socially constructed policy forms of old age and collective identities. Contemporary trends towards individualization and diversification of identities, and discourses on the ageing/information society, indicate cultural distance between an instrumentally rational administration and the life world of old people. Research explores the concept of embodiment through its significance in debates on postmodernization of the lifecourse in accordance with the structural shifts towards a postindustrial structure. This study examines representations of old age in broader social and cultural processes. Images of the social and cultural trajectory of the lifecourse draw attention to the embodiment of individual identities and ultimately generational cultures in contemporary social and cultural spaces. This research is the result of analyses of old age, which have been informed by postmodern theory. It in turn informs sociological theorizations of cultural representations of old age in contemporary societies.

National and cultural identity in diaspora

The thesis examines the 'preservation' of Lithuanian national and cultural identity among migrant groups in Australia, comparing postwar migrants with people who have arrived since 1970. It argues that cultural identity is a flexible, evolving concept, negotiated in relation to the social, economic and political circumstances of the migrant.

Conservative discourse at the time of the Korean War. 1950-52

This thesis identifies the rhetorical strategies by which the Menzies government reconciled acceptance of full employment, the welfare state and government intervention with a defence of liberalism. It argues that the Korean War offered the Menzies government an opportunity to reconstitute these key aspects of the postwar state as "liberal" rather than social democratic.

You have to be pleasing and co-operative : Australia’s vision splendid for post-world war II migrants

This article examines the ‘vision splendid’ that existed for Australian migration following World War II. That vision (championed by the then Minister for Immigration, Arthur Calwell) was myopic, but is still pertinent to current debates on Australian Migration, particularly in the way that migrants were placed in categories of the desirable. This paper uses a particular migrant group, the Temple Society, to illustrate the concerns of 1940s immigration policy. This group was interned in Australia during World War II and underwent postwar investigations by the then newly formed Department of Immigration.

The invincible summer : on Albert Camus’ philosophical neoclassicism

What follows is a work of critical reconstruction of Camus' thought. It aims to answer to the wish Camus expressed in his later notebooks, that he at least be read closely. Specifically, I hope to do three things. In Part I, we will show how Camus' famous philosophy of the absurd represents a systematic scepticism whose closest philosophical predecessor is Descartes' method of doubt, and whose consequence, as in Descartes, is the discovery of a single, orienting certainty, on the basis of which Camus would proceed to pass beyond the 'nihilism' that conservative critics continued to level against him (MS 34). Part II will unfold the central tenets of Camus' mature thought of rebellion, and show how Camus' central political claims follow from his para-Cartesian claim to have found an irreducible or 'invincible' basis for a post-metaphysical ethics, consistent with the most thoroughgoing epistemic scepticism. Part III then undertakes to show that the neoclassical rhetoric and positioning Camus claimed for his postwar thought—as a thought of moderation or mesure, and a renewed Greek or Mediterranean naturalism—is more than a stylistic pretension. It represents, so I argue, a singular amalgam of modern and philosophical classical motifs which makes Camus' voice nearly unique in twentieth century ideas, and all the more worth reconsidering today. So let us proceed.