Does Exchange Rate Risk Affect Exports Asymmetrically? Asian Evidence

The effects of exchange rate risk have interested researchers, since the collapse of fixed exchange rates. Little consensus exists, however, regarding its effect on exports. Previous studies implicitly assume symmetry. This paper tests the hypothesis of asymmetric effects of exchange rate risk with a dynamic conditional correlation bivariate GARCH(1,1)-M model. The asymmetry means that exchange rate risk (volatility) affects exports differently during appreciations and depreciations of the exchange rate. The data include bilateral exports from eight Asian countries to the US. The empirical results show that real exchange rate risk significantly affects exports for all countries, negative or positive, in periods of depreciation or appreciation. For five of the eight countries, the effects of exchange risk are asymmetric. Thus, policy makers can consider the stability of the exchange rate in addition to its depreciation as a method of stimulating export growth.

Intervening to reach adolescents and affect health

Background. Assessing the health status of adolescents is challenging for health care providers. Personal disclosure has been associated with improved health outcomes. Story-centered care was examined as an intervention for promoting adolescent disclosure during an urgent care visit. ^ Objectives. This study explored: (1) the effectiveness of story-centered care for promoting adolescent disclosure; (2) health-associated words used by adolescents to describe pressing concerns after an urgent care visit when they had standard care (SC) or story-centered care (SCC) conducted by a Nurse Practitioner (NP). ^ Methods. Subjects were randomly assigned to SC or SCC. In SC, adolescent presenting concerns were identified and treated. In SCC, presenting concerns were treated and NP-adolescent dialogue, facilitated through a screening tool, queried matters of importance to adolescent life. After the visit, adolescents wrote about pressing concerns for 15 minutes. Written words were analyzed with Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count, a software program for analyzing narrative. Ratios were calculated for the number of words (adolescent: NP) used during the urgent care visit. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to evaluate gender-intervention differences in health-associated words. ^ Results. One hundred and six adolescents [Hispanic (65%), White (35%)] completed the study. Fifty-five were female; the average age was 17 (sd = 2.1) years. ^ Adolescents in the story intervention used more words (adolescent: NP, 1:1.3) than those in standard intervention (adolescent: NP, 1:2.7) in proportion to the number of words used by the NP during the urgent care visit. There were gender-intervention differences (p < .01) in positive emotion words and past-tense words in writings about pressing concerns. Males who received the story intervention used more positive emotion and less past-tense words than adolescent males with standard care. Females used more social words (p < .01) in their writings regardless of intervention group. ^ Conclusion. SCC enhanced adolescent disclosure during an urgent care visit. Adolescents will talk to health care providers during episodic visits and males may benefit more than girls may from this approach. Evidence suggests there is value in attending to both presenting and pressing concerns of adolescents. ^

User-centric need-driven affect modeling for spoken conversational agents: design and evaluation

It is easy to get frustrated at spoken conversational agents (SCAs), perhaps because they seem to be callous. By and large, the quality of human-computer interaction is affected due to the inability of the SCAs to recognise and adapt to user emotional state. Now with the mass appeal of artificially-mediated communication, there has been an increasing need for SCAs to be socially and emotionally intelligent, that is, to infer and adapt to their human interlocutors’ emotions on the fly, in order to ascertain an affective, empathetic and naturalistic interaction. An enhanced quality of interaction would reduce users’ frustrations and consequently increase their satisfactions. These reasons have motivated the development of SCAs towards including socio-emotional elements, turning them into affective and socially-sensitive interfaces. One barrier to the creation of such interfaces has been the lack of methods for modelling emotions in a task-independent environment. Most emotion models for spoken dialog systems are task-dependent and thus cannot be used “as-is” in different applications. This Thesis focuses on improving this, in which it concerns computational modeling of emotion, personality and their interrelationship for task-independent autonomous SCAs. The generation of emotion is driven by needs, inspired by human’s motivational systems. The work in this Thesis is organised in three stages, each one with its own contribution. The first stage involved defining, integrating and quantifying the psychological-based motivational and emotional models sourced from. Later these were transformed into a computational model by implementing them into software entities. The computational model was then incorporated and put to test with an existing SCA host, a HiFi-control agent. The second stage concerned automatic prediction of affect, which has been the main challenge towards the greater aim of infusing social intelligence into the HiFi agent. In recent years, studies on affect detection from voice have moved on to using realistic, non-acted data, which is subtler. However, it is more challenging to perceive subtler emotions and this is demonstrated in tasks such as labelling and machine prediction. In this stage, we attempted to address part of this challenge by considering the roles of user satisfaction ratings and conversational/dialog features as the respective target and predictors in discriminating contentment and frustration, two types of emotions that are known to be prevalent within spoken human-computer interaction. The final stage concerned the evaluation of the emotional model through the HiFi agent. A series of user studies with 70 subjects were conducted in a real-time environment, each in a different phase and with its own conditions. All the studies involved the comparisons between the baseline non-modified and the modified agent. The findings have gone some way towards enhancing our understanding of the utility of emotion in spoken dialog systems in several ways; first, an SCA should not express its emotions blindly, albeit positive. Rather, it should adapt its emotions to user states. Second, low performance in an SCA may be compensated by the exploitation of emotion. Third, the expression of emotion through the exploitation of prosody could better improve users’ perceptions of an SCA compared to exploiting emotions through just lexical contents. Taken together, these findings not only support the success of the emotional model, but also provide substantial evidences with respect to the benefits of adding emotion in an SCA, especially in mitigating users’ frustrations and ultimately improving their satisfactions. Resumen Es relativamente fácil experimentar cierta frustración al interaccionar con agentes conversacionales (Spoken Conversational Agents, SCA), a menudo porque parecen ser un poco insensibles. En general, la calidad de la interacción persona-agente se ve en cierto modo afectada por la incapacidad de los SCAs para identificar y adaptarse al estado emocional de sus usuarios. Actualmente, y debido al creciente atractivo e interés de dichos agentes, surge la necesidad de hacer de los SCAs unos seres cada vez más sociales y emocionalmente inteligentes, es decir, con capacidad para inferir y adaptarse a las emociones de sus interlocutores humanos sobre la marcha, de modo que la interacción resulte más afectiva, empática y, en definitiva, natural. Una interacción mejorada en este sentido permitiría reducir la posible frustración de los usuarios y, en consecuencia, mejorar el nivel de satisfacción alcanzado por los mismos. Estos argumentos justifican y motivan el desarrollo de nuevos SCAs con capacidades socio-emocionales, dotados de interfaces afectivas y socialmente sensibles. Una de las barreras para la creación de tales interfaces ha sido la falta de métodos de modelado de emociones en entornos independientes de tarea. La mayoría de los modelos emocionales empleados por los sistemas de diálogo hablado actuales son dependientes de tarea y, por tanto, no pueden utilizarse "tal cual" en diferentes dominios o aplicaciones. Esta tesis se centra precisamente en la mejora de este aspecto, la definición de modelos computacionales de las emociones, la personalidad y su interrelación para SCAs autónomos e independientes de tarea. Inspirada en los sistemas motivacionales humanos en el ámbito de la psicología, la tesis propone un modelo de generación/producción de la emoción basado en necesidades. El trabajo realizado en la presente tesis está organizado en tres etapas diferenciadas, cada una con su propia contribución. La primera etapa incluyó la definición, integración y cuantificación de los modelos motivacionales de partida y de los modelos emocionales derivados a partir de éstos. Posteriormente, dichos modelos emocionales fueron plasmados en un modelo computacional mediante su implementación software. Este modelo computacional fue incorporado y probado en un SCA anfitrión ya existente, un agente con capacidad para controlar un equipo HiFi, de alta fidelidad. La segunda etapa se orientó hacia el reconocimiento automático de la emoción, aspecto que ha constituido el principal desafío en relación al objetivo mayor de infundir inteligencia social en el agente HiFi. En los últimos años, los estudios sobre reconocimiento de emociones a partir de la voz han pasado de emplear datos actuados a usar datos reales en los que la presencia u observación de emociones se produce de una manera mucho más sutil. El reconocimiento de emociones bajo estas condiciones resulta mucho más complicado y esta dificultad se pone de manifiesto en tareas tales como el etiquetado y el aprendizaje automático. En esta etapa, se abordó el problema del reconocimiento de las emociones del usuario a partir de características o métricas derivadas del propio diálogo usuario-agente. Gracias a dichas métricas, empleadas como predictores o indicadores del grado o nivel de satisfacción alcanzado por el usuario, fue posible discriminar entre satisfacción y frustración, las dos emociones prevalentes durante la interacción usuario-agente. La etapa final corresponde fundamentalmente a la evaluación del modelo emocional por medio del agente Hifi. Con ese propósito se llevó a cabo una serie de estudios con usuarios reales, 70 sujetos, interaccionando con diferentes versiones del agente Hifi en tiempo real, cada uno en una fase diferente y con sus propias características o capacidades emocionales. En particular, todos los estudios realizados han profundizado en la comparación entre una versión de referencia del agente no dotada de ningún comportamiento o característica emocional, y una versión del agente modificada convenientemente con el modelo emocional propuesto. Los resultados obtenidos nos han permitido comprender y valorar mejor la utilidad de las emociones en los sistemas de diálogo hablado. Dicha utilidad depende de varios aspectos. En primer lugar, un SCA no debe expresar sus emociones a ciegas o arbitrariamente, incluso aunque éstas sean positivas. Más bien, debe adaptar sus emociones a los diferentes estados de los usuarios. En segundo lugar, un funcionamiento relativamente pobre por parte de un SCA podría compensarse, en cierto modo, dotando al SCA de comportamiento y capacidades emocionales. En tercer lugar, aprovechar la prosodia como vehículo para expresar las emociones, de manera complementaria al empleo de mensajes con un contenido emocional específico tanto desde el punto de vista léxico como semántico, ayuda a mejorar la percepción por parte de los usuarios de un SCA. Tomados en conjunto, los resultados alcanzados no sólo confirman el éxito del modelo emocional, sino xv que constituyen además una evidencia decisiva con respecto a los beneficios de incorporar emociones en un SCA, especialmente en cuanto a reducir el nivel de frustración de los usuarios y, en última instancia, mejorar su satisfacción.

Increasing the accuracy of positive displacement meters for the measurement of volume in liquid hydrocarbon logistics

Accuracy in the liquid hydrocarbons custody transfer is mandatory because it has a great economic impact. By far the most accurate meter is the positive displacement (PD) meter. Increasing such an accuracy may adversely affect the cost of the custody transfer, unless simple models are developed in order to lower the cost, which is the purpose of this work. PD meter consists of a fixed volume rotating chamber. For each turn a pulse is counted, hence, the measured volume is the number of pulses times the volume of the chamber. It does not coincide with the real volume, so corrections have to be made. All the corrections are grouped by a meter factor. Among corrections highlights the slippage flow. By solving the Navier-Stokes equations one can find an analytical expression for this flow. It is neither easy nor cheap to apply straightforward the slippage correction; therefore we have made a simple model where slippage is regarded as a single parameter with dimension of time. The model has been tested for several PD meters. In our careful experiments, the meter factor grows with temperature at a constant pace of 8?10?5?ºC?1. Be warned

Mathematical analysis of activation thresholds in enzyme-catalyzed positive feedbacks: application to the feedbacks of blood coagulation.

A hierarchy of enzyme-catalyzed positive feedback loops is examined by mathematical and numerical analysis. Four systems are described, from the simplest, in which an enzyme catalyzes its own formation from an inactive precursor, to the most complex, in which two sequential feedback loops act in a cascade. In the latter we also examine the function of a long-range feedback, in which the final enzyme produced in the second loop activates the initial step in the first loop. When the enzymes generated are subject to inhibition or inactivation, all four systems exhibit threshold properties akin to excitable systems like neuron firing. For those that are amenable to mathematical analysis, expressions are derived that relate the excitation threshold to the kinetics of enzyme generation and inhibition and the initial conditions. For the most complex system, it was expedient to employ numerical simulation to demonstrate threshold behavior, and in this case long-range feedback was seen to have two distinct effects. At sufficiently high catalytic rates, this feedback is capable of exciting an otherwise subthreshold system. At lower catalytic rates, where the long-range feedback does not significantly affect the threshold, it nonetheless has a major effect in potentiating the response above the threshold. In particular, oscillatory behavior observed in simulations of sequential feedback loops is abolished when a long-range feedback is present.

The Wsh and Ph mutations affect the c-kit expression profile: c-kit misexpression in embryogenesis impairs melanogenesis in Wsh and Ph mutant mice.

The receptor tyrosine kinases (RTKs) c-kit and platelet-derived growth factor receptor alpha chain (PDG-FRa) are encoded at the white spotting (W) and patch (Ph) loci on mouse chromosome 5. While W mutations affect melanogenesis, gametogenesis, and hematopoiesis, the Ph mutation affects melanogenesis and causes early lethality in homozygotes. W-sash (Wsh) is an expression mutation and blocks c-kit expression in certain cell types and enhances c-kit expression in others, including at sites important for early melanogenesis. We have determined the effect of Ph on c-kit expression during embryogenesis in Ph heterozygotes. Immunohistochemical analysis revealed enhanced c-kit expression in several cell types, including sites important for early melanogenesis. We propose that in both Wsh and Ph mutant mice c-kit misexpression affects early melanogenesis and is responsible for the pigment deficiency. Moreover, we have defined the organization of the RTKs in the W/Ph region on chromosome 5 and characterized the Wsh mutation by using pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. Whereas the order of the RTK genes was determined as Pdgfra-c-kit-flk1, analysis of the Wsh mutation revealed that the c-kit and Pdgfra genes are unlinked in Wsh, presumably because of an inversion of a small segment of chromosome 5. The Ph mutation consists of a deletion including Pdgfra and the 3' deletion endpoint of Ph lies between Pdgfra and c-kit. Therefore, positive 5' upstream elements controlling c-kit expression in mast cells and some other cell types are affected by the Wsh mutation and negative elements are affected by both the Wsh and the Ph mutation.

Responses to Domestic Violence Public Service Ads: Memory, Attitudes, Affect, and Individual Differences

Public service ads (PSAs) are an increasingly visible part of efforts to decrease the occurrence and consequences of domestic violence. Like other advertising, domestic violence PSAs are designed to grab attention, influence attitudes, and enhance memory for ad content. Over the years, images in domestic violence PSAs have changed substantially; agencies have started using pictures that generate emotions - either vivid negative images (bruised faces or body parts), or positive images (smiling faces) that contrast with the negative text. It is not clear, however, how different types of ad images influence memory for the message and attitudes about domestic violence, and what role affect may play in such responses. Moreover, the extent to which individual differences (trauma history, posttraumatic distress - PTSD symptoms) influence outcomes is not known. In three studies with undergraduate and community samples, using methods ranging from psychophysiology to self-report, the impact of images on attitudes and memory for ad content are investigated, also considering affect and individual differences. Results indicate graphic negative images enhanced memory for ad content, are rated as more persuasive, and are more likely to compel the viewer to act. Affective responses to ads also differed based on image type, and in some cases, partially mediated the relationship between ads and outcomes. Trends in the data suggest further study of the role of individual differences (trauma history, PTSD symptoms) is needed. This research provides information specifically relevant to the design of domestic violence public service campaigns and broadly relevant to understanding the role of emotional responses and individual differences on outcomes associated with public service ads.

Inclusive education in Spain: how do skills, resources, and supports affect regular education teachers’ perceptions of inclusion?

This study examined regular education teachers’ perceptions of inclusion in elementary and secondary schools in Spain and how these perceptions may differ depending on teaching experience, skills, and the availability of resources and supports. Stratified random sampling procedures were used to draw a representative sample of 336 general education teachers (68 kindergarten, 133 elementary, and 135 secondary teachers) from the province of Alicante. The results indicated the acceptance of the principles of inclusion, although teacher skills, time, material resources, and personal supports for inclusion were deemed insufficient. Kindergarten and elementary teachers showed more positive perceptions of inclusion than secondary education teachers, and so did teachers with more personal supports and material resources than those with less supports and resources. The results are discussed in terms of its implications for practice in order to promote more inclusive classrooms in Spain.

Is Mindfulness Beneficial for Job Performance Following Positive and Negative Affective Events? The Attenuating Role of Mindfulness on Self-Serving Bias

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-05

How does social security affect economic growth? Evidence from cross-country data

This paper investigates how social security interacts with growth and growth determinants (savings, human capital investment, and fertility). Our empirical investigation finds that the estimated coefficient on social security is significantly negative in the fertility equation, insignificant in the saving equation, and significantly positive in the growth and education equations. By contrast, the estimated coefficient on growth is insignificant in the social security equation. The results suggest that social security may indeed be conducive to growth through tipping the trade-off between the number and quality of children toward the latter.

Sequence variation can affect the performance of minor groove binder TaqMan probes in viral diagnostic assays

A minor groove binder (MGB) TaqMan real-time PCR assay was developed for the detection of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in clinical specimens. Upon evaluation of the assay, notable differences were observed in the overall fluorescent response obtained from RSV positive specimens, with some linear amplification curves deviating only slightly from baseline fluorescence. Sequencing of the probes targets in these RSV strains revealed single base mismatches with the MGB TaqMan probe. overall, these results highlight the usefulness of MGB TaqMan probes for the detection of mismatches, but suggest that MGB Taqman probes have limitations for routine screening for uncharacterised viral strains. (C) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Organizations driving positive social change:a review and an integrative framework of change processes

Academic and practitioner interest in how market-based organizations can drive positive social change (PSC) is steadily growing. This paper helps to recast how organizations relate to society. It integrates research on projects stimulating PSC – the transformational processes to advance societal well-being – which is fragmented across different streams of research in management and related disciplines. Focusing on the mechanisms at play in how organizations and their projects affect change in targets outside of organizational boundaries, we 1) clarify the nature of PSC as a process, 2) develop an integrative framework that specifies two distinct PSC strategies, 3) take stock of and offer a categorization scheme for change mechanisms and enabling organizational practices, and 4) outline opportunities for future research. Our conceptual framework differentiates between surface- and deep-level PSC strategies understood as distinct combinations of change mechanisms and enabling organizational practices. These strategies differ in the nature and speed of transformation experienced by the targets of change projects and the resulting quality (pervasiveness and durability), timing, and reach of social impact. Our findings provide a solid base for integrating and advancing knowledge across the largely disparate streams of management research on Corporate Social Responsibility, Social Entrepreneurship, and Base of the Pyramid, and open up important new avenues for future research on organizing for PSC and on unpacking PSC processes.

α-Tocopherol supplementation does not affect monocyte endothelial adhesion or C-reactive protein levels but reduces soluble vascular adhesion molecule-1 in the plasma of healthy subjects

Vascular monocyte retention in the subintima is pivotal to the development of cardiovascular disease and is facilitated by up-regulation of adhesion molecules on monocytes/endothelial cells during oxidative stress. Epidemiological studies have shown that cardiovascular disease risk is inversely proportional to plasma levels of the dietary micronutrients, vitamin C and vitamin E (α-tocopherol). We have tested the hypothesis that α-tocopherol supplementation may alter endothelial/monocyte function and interaction in subjects with normal ascorbate levels (> 50 μM), as ascorbate has been shown to regenerate tocopherol from its oxidised tocopheroxyl radical form in vitro. Healthy male subjects received α-tocopherol supplements (400 IU RRR-α-tocopherol /day for 6 weeks) in a placebo-controlled, double-blind intervention study. There were no significant differences in monocyte CD11b expression, monocyte adhesion to endothelial cells, plasma C-reactive protein or sICAM- 1 concentrations post-supplementation. There was no evidence for nuclear translocation of NF-κB in isolated resting monocytes, nor any effect of α-tocopherol supplementation. However, post-supplementation, sVCAM-1 levels were decreased in all subjects and sE-selectin levels were increased in the vitamin C-replete group only; a weak positive correlation was observed between sE-selectin and α-tocopherol concentration. In conclusion, α-tocopherol supplementation had little effect on cardiovascular disease risk factors in healthy subjects and the effects of tocopherol were not consistently affected by plasma vitamin C concentration. © W. S. Maney & Son Ltd.

Does the motivation for foreign direct investment affect productivity spillovers to the domestic sector?

There is increasing empirical and theoretical evidence that foreign direct investment (FDI) may be motivated not by the desire to exploit some competitive advantage possessed by multinationals, but to access the technology of host economy firms. Using a panel of FDI flows across OECD countries and manufacturing sectors between 1984 and 1995, we test whether these contrasting motivations influence the effects that FDI has on domestic total factor productivity. The distinction between technology-exploiting FDI (TEFDI) and technology-sourcing FDI (TSFDI) is made using R&D intensity differentials between host and source sectors. The hypothesis that the motivation for FDI has an effect on total factor productivity spillovers is supported: TEFDI has a net positive effect, while TSFDI has a net negative effect. These net effects are explained in terms of the offsetting influences of productivity spillovers and market stealing effects induced by incoming multinationals.

Does institutional quality affect firm performance? Insights from a semiparametric approach

Using a novel modeling approach, and cross-country firm level data for the textiles industry, we examine the impact of institutional quality on firm performance. Our methodology allows us to estimate the marginal impact of institutional quality on productivity of each firm. Our results bring into question conventional wisdom about the desirable characteristics of market institutions, which is based on empirical evidence about the impact of institutional quality on the average firm. We demonstrate, for example, that once both the direct impact of a change in institutional quality on total factor productivity and the indirect impact through changes in efficiency of use of factor inputs are taken into account, an increase in labor market rigidity may have a positive impact on firm output, at least for some firms. We also demonstrate that there are significant intra-country variations in the marginal impact of institutional quality, such that the characteristics of “winners” and “losers” will have to be taken into account before policy is introduced to change institutional quality in any direction.