Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

Rifapentine for latent tuberculosis infection treatment in the general population and human immunodeficiency virus-positive patients: summary of evidence

AbstractLatent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-coinfection are challenges in the control of tuberculosis transmission. We aimed to assess and summarize evidence available in the literature regarding the treatment of LTBI in both the general and HIV-positive population, in order to support decision making by the Brazilian Tuberculosis Control Program for LTBI chemoprophylaxis. We searched MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, Embase, LILACS, SciELO, Trip database, National Guideline Clearinghouse, and the Brazilian Theses Repository to identify systematic reviews, randomized clinical trials, clinical guidelines, evidence-based synopses, reports of health technology assessment agencies, and theses that investigated rifapentine and isoniazid combination compared to isoniazid monotherapy. We assessed the quality of evidence from randomized clinical trials using the Jadad Scale and recommendations from other evidence sources using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluations approach. The available evidence suggests that there are no differences between rifapentine + isoniazid short-course treatment and the standard 6-month isoniazid therapy in reducing active tuberculosis incidence or death. Adherence was better with directly observed rifapentine therapy compared to self-administered isoniazid. The quality of evidence obtained was moderate, and on the basis of this evidence, rifapentine is recommended by one guideline. Available evidence assessment considering the perspective of higher adherence rates, lower costs, and local peculiarity context might support rifapentine use for LTBI in the general or HIV-positive populations. Since novel trials are ongoing, further studies should include patients on antiretroviral therapy.

Stress relacionado com o trabalho e motivação para a cessação tabágica: um obstáculo?: Estudo exploratório de uma amostra de vendedores fumadores

RESUMO - O tabagismo surge como a primeira causa evitável de doença, incapacidade e morte prematura em países desenvolvidos. Dentre os fatores influenciadores do comportamento face ao consumo de tabaco, a influência dos fatores de stress no local de trabalho foi alvo de diversos estudos com resultados mistos, revelando uma evidência empírica inconclusiva. Foi feito um estudo exploratório, transversal, que visou verificar a existência de associação entre algum dos fatores de stress no trabalho, nomeadamente 1) requisitos no trabalho, 2) autoridade decisória, 3) discriminação de tarefas, 4) condições de emprego, 5) apoio dos chefes e colegas, 6) número de horas de trabalho e 7) satisfação com o trabalho; com a motivação para a cessação tabágica. A amostra contou com 95 vendedores de bens de consumo alimentar, fumadores. Foi aplicado um questionário com variáveis sociodemográficas, variáveis de caracterização do comportamento face ao consumo de tabaco, o Teste de Richmond, variáveis de caracterização profissional e o Questionário Sobre Stress no Local de Trabalho. O Questionário Sobre o Stress no Local de Trabalho revelou uma validade insuficiente para a caracterização da maioria dos fatores de stress em estudo, manifestada por α de Cronbach muito baixos, pelo que a análise de associação apenas foi realizada entre os fatores de stress 1) apoio dos chefes e colegas, 2) número de horas de trabalho e 3) satisfação com o trabalho; e a motivação para a cessação tabágica. Para níveis de significância de 10%, o número de horas de trabalho apresentou uma associação positiva estatisticamente significativa com a motivação para a cessação tabágica, duplicando a probabilidade da sua ocorrência [OR = 2,429 (IC95%: 0,945 – 6,240)]. Em toda a análise de dados realizada foi prevalente a baixa motivação para a cessação tabágica dos vendedores, independentemente da variação dos fatores de stress relacionados com o trabalho.

Influence of the wood mechanical properties in the dovetail joint behavior

The force distribution inside a dovetail joint is complex. Wood is simultaneously loaded in different directions in the several connected surfaces. The analytical solutions available for the analysis of the behavior of those carpentry joints rely on the mechanical properties of wood. In particular, the stiffness properties of wood under compression are crucial for the forces equilibrium. Simulations showed that the stiffness values considered in each of the springs normally assumed in the analytical models, have great influence in the bearing capacity and stiffness of the dovetail joints, with important consequence on the stress distribution over the overall structure. In a wide experimental campaign, the properties under compression of the most common wood species of existing timber structures have been determined. Then, a solved example of a dovetail joint is presented assuming different wood species and the corresponding strength and stiffness properties values obtained in the tests.

The effect of secular trends in the classroom furniture mismatch: support for continuous update of school furniture standards

In order to create safer schools, the Chilean authorities published a Standard regarding school furniture dimensions. The aims of this study are twofold: to verify the existence of positive secular trend within the Chilean student population and to evaluate the potential mismatch between the anthropometric characteristics and the school furniture dimensions defined by the mentioned standard. The sample consists of 3078 subjects. Eight anthropometric measures were gathered, together with six furniture dimensions from the mentioned standard. There is an average increase for some dimensions within the Chilean student population over the past two decades. Accordingly, almost 18% of the students will find the seat height to be too high. Seat depth will be considered as being too shallow for 42.8% of the students. It can be concluded that the Chilean student population has increased in stature, which supports the need to revise and update the data from the mentioned Standard. Practitioner Summary: Positive secular trend resulted in high levels of mismatch if furniture is selected according to the current Chilean Standard which uses data collected more than 20 years ago. This study shows that school furniture standards need to be updated over time.

Methodology for real-time adaptation of tunnels support using the observational method

The observational method in tunnel engineering allows the evaluation in real time of the actual conditions of the ground and to take measures if its behavior deviates considerably from predictions. However, it lacks a consistent and structured methodology to use the monitoring data to adapt the support system in real time. The definition of limit criteria above which adaptation is required are not defined and complex inverse analysis procedures (Rechea et al. 2008, Levasseur et al. 2010, Zentar et al. 2001, Lecampion et al. 2002, Finno and Calvello 2005, Goh 1999, Cui and Pan 2012, Deng et al. 2010, Mathew and Lehane 2013, Sharifzadeh et al. 2012, 2013) may be needed to consistently analyze the problem. In this paper a methodology for the real time adaptation of the support systems during tunneling is presented. In a first step limit criteria for displacements and stresses are proposed. The methodology uses graphics that are constructed during the project stage based on parametric calculations to assist in the process and when these graphics are not available, since it is not possible to predict every possible scenario, inverse analysis calculations are carried out. The methodology is applied to the “Bois de Peu” tunnel which is composed by two tubes with over 500 m long. High uncertainty levels existed concerning the heterogeneity of the soil and consequently in the geomechanical design parameters. The methodology was applied in four sections and the results focus on two of them. It is shown that the methodology has potential to be applied in real cases contributing for a consistent approach of a real time adaptation of the support system and highlight the importance of the existence of good quality and specific monitoring data to improve the inverse analysis procedure.

Surface plasmon resonance-coupled photoluminescence and resistive switching behavior of pulsed laser-deposited Ag:SiC nanocermet thin films

In this study, Ag:SiC nanocermets were prepared via rapid thermal annealing (RTA) of pulsed laser-deposited SiC/Ag/SiC trilayers grown on Si substrate. Atomic force microscope images show that silver nanoparticles (Ag NPs) are formed after RTA, and the size of NPs increases with increasing Ag deposition time (t Ag). Sharp dip observed in the reflectance spectra confirmed the existence of Ag surface plasmons (SPs). The infrared transmission spectra showed an intense and broad absorption band around 780–800 cm−1 that can be assigned to Si-C stretching vibration mode. Influence of t Ag on the spectral characteristics of SP-enhanced photoluminescence (PL) and electrical properties of silicon carbide (SiC) films has been investigated. The maximum PL enhancement by 5.5 times for Ag:SiC nanocermets is achieved when t Ag ≈ 50 s. This enhancement is due to the strong resonant coupling between SiC and the SP oscillations of the Ag NPs. Presence of Ag NPs in SiC also induces a forming-free resistive switching with switching ratio of 2 × 10−2. The analysis of I–V curves demonstrates that the trap-controlled space-charge-limited conduction with filamentary model is the governing mechanism for the resistive switching in nanocerment thin films.

In vitro mechanical fatigue behavior of poly-ε-caprolactone macroporous scaffolds for cartilage tissue engineering: Influence of pore filling by a poly(vinyl alcohol) gel

Polymeric scaffolds used in regenerative therapies are implanted in the damaged tissue and subjected to repeated loading cycles. In the case of articular cartilage engineering, an implanted scaffold is typically subjected to long term dynamic compression. The evolution of the mechanical properties of the scaffold during bioresorption has been deeply studied in the past, but the possibility of failure due to mechanical fatigue has not been properly addressed. Nevertheless, the macroporous scaffold is susceptible to failure after repeated loading-unloading cycles. In this work fatigue studies of polycaprolactone scaffolds were carried by subjecting the scaffold to repeated compression cycles in conditions simulating the scaffold implanted in the articular cartilage. The behaviour of the polycaprolactone sponge with the pores filled with a poly(vinyl alcohol) gel simulating the new formed tissue within the pores was compared with that of the material immersed in water. Results were analyzed with Morrow’s criteria for failure and accurate fittings are obtained just up to 200 loading cycles. It is also shown that the presence of poly(vinyl alcohol) increases the elastic modulus of the scaffolds, the effect being more pronounced with increasing the number of freeze/thawing cycles.

Nonparametric estimation of time-dependent ROC curves conditional on a continuous covariate

The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve is the most widely used measure for evaluating the performance of a diagnostic biomarker when predicting a binary disease outcome. The ROC curve displays the true positive rate (or sensitivity) and the false positive rate (or 1-specificity) for different cut-off values used to classify an individual as healthy or diseased. In time-to-event studies, however, the disease status (e.g. death or alive) of an individual is not a fixed characteristic, and it varies along the study. In such cases, when evaluating the performance of the biomarker, several issues should be taken into account: first, the time-dependent nature of the disease status; and second, the presence of incomplete data (e.g. censored data typically present in survival studies). Accordingly, to assess the discrimination power of continuous biomarkers for time-dependent disease outcomes, time-dependent extensions of true positive rate, false positive rate, and ROC curve have been recently proposed. In this work, we present new nonparametric estimators of the cumulative/dynamic time-dependent ROC curve that allow accounting for the possible modifying effect of current or past covariate measures on the discriminatory power of the biomarker. The proposed estimators can accommodate right-censored data, as well as covariate-dependent censoring. The behavior of the estimators proposed in this study will be explored through simulations and illustrated using data from a cohort of patients who suffered from acute coronary syndrome.

Enhanced resistive switching and multilevel behavior in bilayered HfAlO/HfAlOx structures for non-volatile memory applications

In this work, hafnium aluminum oxide (HfAlO) thin films were deposited by ion beam sputtering deposition technique on Si substrate. The presence of oxygen vacancies in the HfAlOx layer deposited in oxygen deficient environment is evidenced from the photoluminescence spectra. Furthermore, HfAlO(oxygen rich)/HfAlOx(oxygen poor) bilayer structures exhibit multilevel resistive switching (RS), and the switching ratio becomes more prominent with increasing the HfAlO layer thickness. The bilayer structure with HfAlO/HfAlOx thickness of 30/40 nm displays the enhanced multilevel resistive switching characteristics, where the high resistance state/ intermediate resistance state (IRS) and IRS/low resistance state resistance ratios are 102 and 5 105 , respectively. The switching mechanisms in the bilayer structures were investigated by the temperature dependence of the three resistance states. This study revealed that the multilevel RS is attributed to the coupling of ionic conduction and the metallic conduction, being the first associated to the formation and rupture of conductive filaments related to oxygen vacancies and the second with the formation of a metallic filament. Moreover, the bilayer structures exhibit good endurance and stability in time.

Clinical characteristics of women diagnosed with carcinoma who tested positive for cervical and anal high-risk human papillomavirus DNA and E6 RNA

High-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) is an essential cause of cervical carcinoma and is also strongly related to anal cancer development. The hrHPV E6 oncoprotein plays a major role in carcinogenesis. We aimed to evaluate the frequency of hrHPV DNA and E6 oncoprotein in the anuses of women with cervical carcinoma. We analyzed 117 women with cervical cancer and 103 controls for hrHPV and the E6 oncogene. Positive test results for a cervical carcinoma included 66.7 % with hrHPV-16 and 7.7 % with hrHPV-18. One case tested positive for both HPV variants (0.9 %). The samples from the anal canal were positive for HPV-16 in 59.8 % of the cases. Simultaneous presence of HPV in the cervix and anal canal was found in 53.8 % of the cases. Regarding expression of E6 RNA, positivity for HPV-16 in the anal canal was found in 21.2 % of the cases, positivity for HPV-16 in the cervix was found in 75.0 %, and positivity for HPV-18 in the cervix was found in 1.9 %. E6 expression in both the cervix and anal canal was found in 19.2 % of the cases. In the controls, 1 % tested positive for HPV-16 and 0 % for HPV-18. Anal samples from the controls showed a hrHPV frequency of 4.9 % (only HPV16). The presence of hrHPV in the anal canal of women with cervical cancer was detected at a high frequency. We also detected E6 RNA expression in the anal canal of women with cervical cancer, suggesting that these women are at risk for anal hrHPV infection.

Development of elastin-like recombinamer films with antimicrobial activity

In the present work we explored the ABP-CM4 peptide properties from Bombyx mori for the creation of biopolymers with broad antimicrobial activity. An antimicrobial recombinant protein-based polymer (rPBP) was designed by cloning the DNA sequence coding for ABP-CM4 in frame with the N-terminus of the elastin-like recombinamer consisting of 200 repetitions of the pentamer VPAVG, here named A200. The new rPBP, named CM4-A200, was purified via a simplified nonchromatographic method, making use of the thermoresponsive behavior of the A200 polymer. ABP-CM4 peptide was also purified through the incorporation of a formic acid cleavage site between the peptide and the A200 sequence. In soluble state the antimicrobial activity of both CM4-A200 polymer and ABP-CM4 peptide was poorly effective. However, when the CM4-A200 polymer was processed into free-standing films high antimicrobial activity against Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria, yeasts and filamentous fungi was observed. The antimicrobial activity of CM4-A200 was dependent on the physical contact of cells with the film surface. Furthermore, CM4-A200 films did not reveal a cytotoxic effect against both normal human skin fibroblasts and human keratinocytes. Finally, we have developed an optimized ex vivo assay with pig skin demonstrating the antimicrobial properties of the CM4-A200 cast films for skin applications.

Properties and thermal behavior of natural deep eutectic solvents

Natural deep eutectic solvents (NADES) have shown to be promising sustainable media for a wide range of applications. Nonetheless, very limited data is available on the properties of these solvents. A more comprehensive body of data on NADES is required for a deeper understanding of these solvents at molecular level, which will undoubtedly foster the development of new applications. NADES based on choline chloride, organic acids, amino acids and sugars were prepared, and their density, thermal behavior, conductivity and polarity were assessed, for different NADES compositions. The NADES studied can be stable up to 170 Â°C, depending on their composition. The thermal characterization revealed that all the NADES are glass formers and some, after water removal, exhibit crystallinity. The morphological characterization of the crystallizable materials was performed using polarized optical microscopy which also provided evidence of homogeneity/phase separation. The conductivity of the NADES was also assessed from 0 to 40 Â°C. The more polar, organic acid-based NADES presented the highest conductivities. The conductivity dependence on temperature was well described by the Vogelâ Fulcherâ Tammann equation for some of the NADES studied.

Eating behavior and body image among psychology students

OBJECTIVE: To characterize eating habits and possible risk factors associated with eating disorders among psychology students, a segment at risk for eating disorders. METHOD: This is a cross-sectional study. The questionnaires Bulimic Investigatory Test Edinburgh (BITE), Eating Attitudes Test (EAT-26), Body Shape Questionnaire (BSQ) and a variety that considers related issues were applied. Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) 11.0 was utilized in analysis. The study population was composed of 175 female students, with a mean age of 21.2 (DP ± 3.6 years). RESULTS: A positive result was detected on the EAT-26 for 6.9% of the cases (CI95%: 3.6-11.7%). The prevalence of increased symptoms and intense gravity, according to the BITE questionnaire was 5% (CI95%: 2.4-9.5%) and 2.5% (CI95%: 0.7-6.3%), respectively. According to the findings, 26.29% of the students presented abnormal eating behavior. The population with moderate/severe BSQ scores presented dissatisfaction with corporal weight. CONCLUSION: The results indicate that attention must be given to eating behavior risks within this group. A differentiated gaze is justified with respect to these future professionals, whose practice is jeopardized in cases in which they are themselves the bearers of installed symptoms or precursory behavior.

The positive effect on ketamine as a priming adjuvant in antidepressant treatment.

Ketamine is an anesthetic with antidepressant properties. The rapid and lasting effect of ketamine observed in preclinical and clinical research makes it a promising therapeutic to improve current major depression (MD) treatment. Our work intended to evaluate whether the combined use of classic antidepressants (imipramine or fluoxetine) and ketamine would improve the antidepressant response. Using an animal model of depressive-like behavior, we show that the addition of ketamine to antidepressants anticipates the behavioral response and accelerates the neuroplastic events when compared with the use of antidepressants alone. In conclusion, our results suggest the need for a reappraisal of the current pharmacological treatment of MD.