A fuzzy Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading

In this paper, we present a fuzzy approach to the Reed-Frost model for epidemic spreading taking into account uncertainties in the diagnostic of the infection. The heterogeneities in the infected group is based on the clinical signals of the individuals (symptoms, laboratorial exams, medical findings, etc.), which are incorporated into the dynamic of the epidemic. The infectivity level is time-varying and the classification of the individuals is performed through fuzzy relations. Simulations considering a real problem with data of the viral epidemic in a children daycare are performed and the results are compared with a stochastic Reed-Frost generalization.

Lateral ventricle differences between first-episode schizophrenia and first-episode psychotic bipolar disorder: A population-based morphometric MRI study

Objectives. The extent to which psychotic disorders fall into distinct diagnostic categories or can be regarded as lying on a single continuum is controversial. We compared lateral ventricle volumes between a large sample of patients with first-episode schizophrenia or bipolar disorder and a healthy control group from the same neighbourhood. Methods. Population-based MRI study with 88 first-episode psychosis (FEP) patients, grouped into those with schizophrenia/schizophreniform disorder (N = 62), bipolar disorder (N = 26) and 94 controls. Results. Right and left lateral ventricular and right temporal horn volumes were larger in FEP subjects than controls. Within the FEP sample, post-hoc tests revealed larger left lateral ventricles and larger right and left temporal horns in schizophrenia subjects relative to controls, while there was no difference between patients with bipolar disorder and controls. None of the findings was attributable to effects of antipsychotics. Conclusions. This large-sample population-based MRI study showed that neuroanatomical abnormalities in subjects with schizophrenia relative to controls from the same neighbourhood are evident at the first episode of illness, but are not detectable in bipolar disorder patients. These data are consistent with a model of psychosis in which early brain insults of neurodevelopmental origin are more relevant to schizophrenia than to bipolar disorder.

ADHD in a representative sample of the Brazilian population: estimated prevalence and comparative adequacy of criteria between adolescents and adults according to the item response theory

Background: Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a clinically significant disorder in adulthood, but current diagnostic criteria and instruments do not seem to adequately capture the complexity of the disorder in this developmental phase. Accordingly, there are limited data on the proportion of adults affected by the disorder, specially in developing countries. Method: We assessed a representative household sample of the Brazilian population for ADHD with the Adult ADHD Self-report Scale (ASRS) Screener, and evaluated the instrument according to the Rasch model of item response theory. Results: The sample was comprised by 3007 individuals, and the overal prevalence of positive screeners for ADHD was 5.8% [95% confidence interval (CI), 4.8-7.0]. Rasch analyses revealed the misfitt of the overall sample to expectations of the model. The evaluation of the sample stratified by age revealed that data for adolescents showed a signficant fittnes to the model expectations, while items completed by adults were not adequated. Conclusions: The lack of fitness to the model for adult respondents challenges the possibility of a linear transformation of the ordinal data into interval measures and the utilization of parametric analyses of data. This result suggests that diagnostic criteria and instruments for adult ADHD must take into account a developmental perspective. Moreover, it calls for further evaluation of currently employed research methods in light of modern theories of psychometrics. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An optimization model for antibiotic use

There is a positive correlation between the intensity of use of a given antibiotic and the prevalence of resistant strains. The more you treat, more patients infected with resistant strains appears and, as a consequence, the higher the mortality due to the infection and the longer the hospitalization time. In contrast, the less you treat, the higher the mortality rates and the longer the hospitalization time of patients infected with sensitive strains that could be successfully treated. The hypothesis proposed in this paper is an attempt to solve such a conflict: there must be an optimum treatment intensity that minimizes both the additional mortality and hospitalization time due to the infection by both sensitive and resistant bacteria strains. In order to test this hypothesis we applied a simple mathematical model that allowed us to estimate the optimum proportion of patients to be treated in order to minimize the total number of deaths and hospitalization time due to the infection in a hospital setting. (C) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inhibition of the renin-angiotensin system prevents seizures in a rat model of epilepsy

The RAS (renin angiotensin system) is classically involved in BP (blood pressure) regulation and water electrolyte balance, and in the central nervous system it has been mostly associated with homoeostatic processes, such as thirst, hormone secretion and thermoregulation. Epilepsies are chronic neurological disorders characterized by recurrent epileptic seizures that affect 1-3% of the world`s population, and the most commonly used anticonvulsants are described to be effective in approx. 70% of the population with this neurological alteration. Using a rat model of epilepsy, we found that components of the RAS, namely ACE (angiotensin-converting enzyme) and the AT(1) receptor (angiotensin II type I receptor) are up-regulated in the brain (2.6- and 8.2-fold respectively) following repetitive seizures. Subsequently, epileptic animals were treated with clinically used doses of enalapril, an ACE inhibitor, and losartan, an AT(1) receptor blocker, leading to a significant decrease in seizure severities. These results suggest that centrally acting drugs that target the RAS deserve further investigation as possible anticonvulsant agents and may represent an additional strategy in the management of epileptic patients.

Impact of a program for the prevention of traffic accidents in a Southern Brazilian city: a model for implementation in a developing country

Background: Traffic accidents constitute the main cause of death in the first decades of life. Traumatic brain injury is the event most responsible for the severity of these accidents. The SBN started an educational program for the prevention of traffic accidents, adapted from the American model ""Think First"" to the Brazilian environment, since 1995, with special effort devoted to the prevention of TBI by using seat belts and motorcycle helmets. The objective of the present study was to set up a traffic accident prevention program based on the adapted Think First and to evaluate its impact by comparing epidemiological variables before and after the beginning of the program. Methods: The program was executed in Maringa city, from September 2004 to August 2005, with educational actions targeting the entire population, especially teenagers and young adults. The program was implemented by building a network of information facilitators and multipliers inside the organized civil society, with widespread population dissemination. To measure the impact of the program, a specific software was developed for the storage and processing of the epidemiological variables. Results: The results showed a reduction of trauma severity due to traffic accidents after the execution of the program, mainly TBI. Conclusions: The adapted Think First was systematically implemented and its impact measured for the first time in Brazil, revealing the usefulness of the program for reducing trauma and TBI severity in traffic accidents through public education and representing a standardized model of implementation in a developing country. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Estimates of Interethnic Admixture in the Brazilian Population Using a Panel of 24 X-Linked Insertion/Deletion Markers

Objectives. In this study, we aimed to identify ancestry informative haplotypes and make interethnic admixture estimates using X-chromosome markers. Methods. A significant sample (461 individuals) of European, African, and Native American populations was analyzed, and four linkage groups were identified. The data obtained were used to describe the ancestral contribution of populations from four different geographical regions of Brazil (745 individuals). Results. The global interethnic admixture estimates of the four mixed populations under investigation were calculated applying all the 24 insertion/deletion (INDEL) markers. In the North region, a larger Native Americans ancestry was observed (42%). The Northeast and Southeast regions had smaller Native American contribution (27% in both of them). In the South region, there was a large European contribution (46%). Conclusions. The estimates obtained are compatible with expectations for a colonization model with biased admixture between European men (one X chromosome) and Native American and African women (two X chromosomes), so the 24 X-INDEL panel described here can be a useful to make admixture interethnic estimates in Brazilian populations. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 22:849-852,2010. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Mitochondrial population genomics supports a single pre-Clovis origin with a coastal route for the peopling of the Americas

It is well accepted that the Americas were the last continents reached by modern humans, most likely through Beringia. However, the precise time and mode of the colonization of the New World remain hotly disputed issues. Native American populations exhibit almost exclusively five mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplogroups (A-D and X). Haplogroups A-D are also frequent in Asia, suggesting a northeastern Asian origin of these lineages. However, the differential pattern of distribution and frequency of haplogroup X led some to suggest that it may represent an independent migration to the Americas. Here we show, by using 86 complete mitochondrial genomes, that all Native American haplogroups, including haplogroup X, were part of a single founding population, thereby refuting multiple-migration models. A detailed demographic history of the mtDNA sequences estimated with a Bayesian coalescent method indicates a complex model for the peopling of the Americas, in which the initial differentiation from Asian populations ended with a moderate bottleneck in Beringia during the last glacial maximum (LGM), around similar to 23,000 to similar to 19,000 years ago. Toward the end of the LGM, a strong population expansion started similar to 18,000 and finished similar to 15,000 years ago. These results support a pre-Clovis occupation of the New World, suggesting a rapid settlement of the continent along a Pacific coastal route.

Nocturnal awakening with headache and its relationship with sleep disorders in a population-based sample of adult inhabitants of Sao Paulo City, Brazil

Our aim was to estimate the prevalence of nocturnal awakening with headache (NAH) in the population of Sao Paulo City according to gender, age (20-80 years old) and socioeconomic classes and its relationship to sleep disorders, sleep parameters, anxiety, depression, fatigue, life quality and obesity. We used a population-based survey with a representative three-stage cluster sample. Questionnaires and scales were applied face-to-face, and polysomnography was performed in 1101 volunteers, aged 42 +/- 14 years, 55% women. The complaint of NAH occurring at least once a week had a prevalence of 8.4%, mostly in women, obese subjects and those aged 50-59 years-old. We observed associations of NAH with insomnia, restless leg syndrome (RLS), nightmares and bruxism, but not obstructive sleep apnea syndrome. In a logistics regression model, risk factors for NAH were female gender, odds ratio (OR) (95% confidence interval [CI]) 4.5 (2.8-7.3); obesity, OR 1.9 (1.1-3.3); age between 50 and 59 years, OR 2.4 (1.2-4.7); severe anxiety, OR 8.1 (3.6-18.1); RLS, 2.7 (1.2-5.6); and nightmares, 2.2 (1.3-3.7). Our study shows that NAH was highly prevalent in the population of Sao Paulo and suggests that this phenomenon has specific characteristics with specific risk factors: obesity, RLS and nightmares.

Evaluation of molar and incisor bite force in indigenous compared with white population in Brazil

The purpose of this study was to deter-mine maximum bite force in molar and incisor regions in young Brazilian indigenous individuals, who have had a natural diet since birth, and compare the sample with white Brazilian individuals. To do this, individuals were paired one-to-one (same weight, height, and Class I facial pattern). A secondary purpose was to elucidate the relation between bite force and gender in both populations. Eighty-two Brazilians took part in this study. Participants were aged between 18 and 28 years and were divided into two groups: 41 Xingu indigenous individuals and 41 white Brazilian individuals, with 28 men and 13 women in each group. The inclusion criteria were: having complete dentition; normal occlusion; no neurological, psychiatric or movement disorders.; no reports of toothaches; having satisfactory periodontal health; absence of large facial skeletal alterations (typical Class II and Class III individuals); and no previous treatments using occlusal splints. To measure maximum bite force, a digital dynamometer model IDDK (Kratos-Equipamentos Industriais Ltda, Cotia, Sao Paulo, Brazil) was used, with a capacity of 1000 N, adapted for oral conditions. Assessments were made in the first molar (right and left) and central incisive regions. Results reveal that mean maximum bite forces in indigenous individuals of the right molar is 421 N, left molar 429 N and incisor region is 194 14 and for white individuals of the right molar is 410 N, left molar 422 N and incisor region is 117 N. Comparing indigenous with white individuals, maximal bite force showed a tendency of being greater in the indigenous group. It was observed that the incisor region showed statistical significance (p < 0.0005) but no significance was observed in the molar region. Moreover, indigenous men showed the highest bite force values. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Could sudden death syndrome (SDS) in chickens (Gallus gallus) be a valid animal model for sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP)?

Epilepsy is the most common serious neurological disorder and approximately 1% of the population worldwide has epilepsy. Moreover, sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP) is the most important direct epilepsy-related cause of death. Information concerning fisk factors for SUDEP is conflicting, but potential risk factors include: young age, early onset of epilepsy, duration of epilepsy, uncontrolled seizures, seizure frequency, AED number and winter temperatures. Additionally, the cause of SUDEP is still unknown; however, the most commonly suggested mechanisms are cardiac abnormalities during and between seizures. Similarly, sudden death syndrome (SDS) is a disease characterized by an acute death of well-nourished and seeming healthy Gallus gallus after abrupt and brief flapping of their wings and incidence of SDS these animals has recently increased worldwide. Moreover, the exactly cause of SDS in Gallus gallus is unknown, but is very probable that cardiac abnormalities play a potential role. Due the similarities between SUDEP and SDS and as Gallus gallus behavioral manifestation during SDS phenomenon is close of a tonic-clonic seizure, in this paper we suggest that epilepsy could be a new possible causal factor for SDS. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tooth loss prevalence and risk indicators in an isolated population of Brazil

Objective. The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence, extent, and risk indicators of tooth loss in an isolated population of Brazil. Material and methods. Two-hundred-and-forty-two subjects, ranging in age from 14 to 82 years (mean 36.2 years), were identified by census in an isolated population of Brazil. All consenting subjects received a full-mouth clinical (DFT index and information about missing teeth) and periodontal examination of 6 sites per tooth. Furthermore, they were interviewed using a structured written questionnaire in order to gather information about demographic, environmental, and biological variables. Results. Of the 200 subjects (80% response rate), 19 (9.5%) were edentulous, 90% had lost at least one tooth, and 39% had lost more than 8 teeth. The mean number of teeth lost was 9.5 (95% CI = 8.2-10.8). First mandibular molars were the most commonly missing teeth. In a multiple logistic regression analysis based on a theoretical hierarchical model of tooth loss, having more than 8 teeth lost was strongly associated with adult age (OR = 18.3-17.3, 95% CIs = 4.8-69.7 and 4.0-75.1) and female gender (OR = 5.9, 95% CI = 1.9-18.2) in the final model. Conclusions. Tooth loss was highly prevalent and extensive in this isolated population. Demographic and behavioral factors played an important role in tooth loss prevalence in this population.

Evaluation of chronic omega-3 fatty acids supplementation on behavioral and neurochemical alterations in 6-hydroxydopamine-lesion model of Parkinson`s disease

Omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (omega-3 PUFAs) have been widely associated to beneficial effects over different neuropathologies, but only a few studies associate them to Parkinson`s disease (PD). Rats were submitted to chronic supplementation (21-90 days of life) with fish oil, rich in omega-3 PUFAs, and were uni- or bilaterally lesioned with 4 mu g of the neurotoxin 6-hydroxydopamine (6-OHDA) in the medial forebrain bundle Although lipid incorporation was evidenced in neuronal membranes, it was not sufficient to compensate motor deficits induced by 6-OHDA. In contrast, omega-3 PUFAs were capable of reducing rotational behavior induced by apomorphine, suggesting neuroprotection over dyskinesia The beneficial effects of omega-3 PUFAs were also evident in the maintenance of thiobarbituric acid reactive substances index from animals lesioned with 6-OHDA similar to levels from SHAM and intact animals. Although omega-3 PUFAs did not modify the tyrosine hydroxylase immunoreactivity in the substantia nigra pars compacta and in the ventral tegmental area, nor the depletion of dopamine (DA) and its metabolites in the striatum, DA turnover was increased after omega-3 PUFAs chronic supplementation Therefore, it is proposed that omega-3 PUFAs action characterizes the adaptation of remaining neurons activity. altering striatal DA turnover without modifying the estimated neuronal population. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ireland Ltd and the Japan Neuroscience Society. All rights reserved

Detecting environmental impacts on metapopulations of mound spring invertebrates - Assessing an incidence function model

We use a stochastic patch occupancy model of invertebrates in the Mound Springs ecosystem of South Australia to assess the ability of incidence function models to detect environmental impacts on metapopulations. We assume that the probability of colonisation decreases with increasing isolation and the probability of extinction is constant across spring vents. We run the models to quasi-equilibrium, and then impose an impact by increasing the local extinction probability. We sample the output at various times pre- and postimpact, and examine the probability of detecting a significant change in population parameters. The incidence function model approach turns out to have little power to detect environmental impacts on metapopulations with small numbers of patches. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.