Colonoscopy requirements of population screening for colorectal cancer in New Zealand

Aim: To estimate the colonoscopy burden of introducing population screening for colorectal cancer in New Zealand. Methods: Screening for colorectal cancer using biennial immunochemical faecal occult blood tests offered to people aged 50-74 years of age was modelled using population estimates from Statistics New Zealand for 2011-2031. Modelling to determine colonoscopy requirements was based on participation and test positivity rates from published results of screening programmes. Estimates of the number of procedures required for ongoing adenoma surveillance were calculated using screening literature results of adenoma yield, and New Zealand Guidelines for Adenoma Surveillance. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken on key parameters. Results: For a test positivity of 6.4%, biennial screening using immunochemical faecal occult blood testing with a 60% participation rate, would require 18,000 colonoscopies nationally, increasing to 28,000 by 2031. The majority of procedures are direct referrals from a positive FOBT, with surveillance colonoscopy numbers building over time. Conclusion: Colonoscopy requirements for immunochemical faecal occult blood based population screening for colorectal cancer are high. Significant expansion of services is required and careful management of surveillance procedures to ensure timely delivery of initial colonoscopies whilst maintaining symptomatic services. A model re-run informed by data from the screening pilot will allow improved estimates for the New Zealand setting.

Habitat use and population dynamics of brown bears (Ursus arctos) in Scandinavia

Large carnivore populations are currently recovering from past extirpation efforts and expanding back into their original habitats. At the same time human activities have resulted in very few wilderness areas left with suitable habitats and size large enough to maintain populations of large carnivores without human contact. Consequently the long-term future of large carnivores depends on their successful integration into landscapes where humans live. Thus, understanding their behaviour and interaction with surrounding habitats is of utmost importance in the development of management strategies for large carnivores. This applies also to brown bears (Ursus arctos) that were almost exterminated from Scandinavia and Finland at the turn of the century, but are now expanding their range with the current population estimates being approximately 2600 bears in Scandinavia and 840 in Finland. This thesis focuses on the large-scale habitat use and population dynamics of brown bears in Scandinavia with the objective to develop modelling approaches that support the management of bear populations. Habitat analysis shows that bear home ranges occur mainly in forested areas with a low level of human influence relative to surrounding areas. Habitat modelling based on these findings allows identification and quantification of the potentially suitable areas for bears in Scandinavia. Additionally, this thesis presents novel improvements to home range estimation that enable realistic estimates of the effective area required for the bears to establish a home range. This is achieved through fitting to the radio-tracking data to establish the amount of temporal autocorrelation and the proportion of time spent in different habitat types. Together these form a basis for the landscape-level management of the expanding population. Successful management of bears requires also assessment of the consequences of harvest on the population viability. An individual-based simulation model, accounting for the sexually selected infanticide, was used to investigate the possibility of increasing the harvest using different hunting strategies, such as trophy harvest of males. The results indicated that the population can sustain twice the current harvest rate. However, harvest should be changed gradually while carefully monitoring the population growth as some effects of increased harvest may manifest themselves only after a time-delay. The results and methodological improvements in this thesis can be applied to the Finnish bear population and to other large carnivores. They provide grounds for the further development of spatially-realistic management-oriented models of brow bear dynamics that can make projections of the future distribution of bears while accounting for the development of human activities.

Using poststratification to improve abundance estimates from multispecies surveys: a study of juvenile flatfishes

Population assessments seldom incorporate habitat information or use previously observed distributions of fish density. Because habitat affects the spatial distribution of fish density and overall abundance, the use of habitat information and previous estimates of fish density can produce more precise and less biased population estimates. In this study, we describe how poststratification can be applied as an unbiased estimator to data sets that were collected under a probability sampling design, typical of many multispecies trawl surveys. With data from a multispecies survey of juvenile flatfish, we show how poststratification can be applied to a data set that was not collected under a probability sampling design, where both the precision and the bias are unknown. For each of four species, three estimates of total abundance were compared: 1) unstratified; 2) poststratified by habitat; and 3) poststratified by habitat and fish density (high fish density and low fish density) in nearby years. Poststratification by habitat gave more precise and (or) less design-biased estimates than an unstratified estimator for all species in all years. Poststratification by habitat and fish density produced the most precise and representative estimates when the sample size in the high fish-density and low fish-density strata were sufficient (in this study, n≥20 in the high fish-density stratum, n≥9 in the low fish-density stratum). Because of the complexities of statistically testing the annual stratified data, we compared three indices of abundance for determining statistically significant changes in annual abundance. Each of the indices closely approximated the annual differences of the poststratified estimates. Selection of the most appropriate index was dependent upon the species’ density distribution within habitat and the sample size in the different habitat areas. The methods used in this study are particularly useful for estimating individual species abundance from multispecies surveys and for retrospective st

Impact of simian immunodeficiency virus infection on chimpanzee population dynamics.

Like human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), simian immunodeficiency virus of chimpanzees (SIVcpz) can cause CD4+ T cell loss and premature death. Here, we used molecular surveillance tools and mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of SIVcpz infection on chimpanzee population dynamics. Habituated (Mitumba and Kasekela) and non-habituated (Kalande) chimpanzees were studied in Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Ape population sizes were determined from demographic records (Mitumba and Kasekela) or individual sightings and genotyping (Kalande), while SIVcpz prevalence rates were monitored using non-invasive methods. Between 2002-2009, the Mitumba and Kasekela communities experienced mean annual growth rates of 1.9% and 2.4%, respectively, while Kalande chimpanzees suffered a significant decline, with a mean growth rate of -6.5% to -7.4%, depending on population estimates. A rapid decline in Kalande was first noted in the 1990s and originally attributed to poaching and reduced food sources. However, between 2002-2009, we found a mean SIVcpz prevalence in Kalande of 46.1%, which was almost four times higher than the prevalence in Mitumba (12.7%) and Kasekela (12.1%). To explore whether SIVcpz contributed to the Kalande decline, we used empirically determined SIVcpz transmission probabilities as well as chimpanzee mortality, mating and migration data to model the effect of viral pathogenicity on chimpanzee population growth. Deterministic calculations indicated that a prevalence of greater than 3.4% would result in negative growth and eventual population extinction, even using conservative mortality estimates. However, stochastic models revealed that in representative populations, SIVcpz, and not its host species, frequently went extinct. High SIVcpz transmission probability and excess mortality reduced population persistence, while intercommunity migration often rescued infected communities, even when immigrating females had a chance of being SIVcpz infected. Together, these results suggest that the decline of the Kalande community was caused, at least in part, by high levels of SIVcpz infection. However, population extinction is not an inevitable consequence of SIVcpz infection, but depends on additional variables, such as migration, that promote survival. These findings are consistent with the uneven distribution of SIVcpz throughout central Africa and explain how chimpanzees in Gombe and elsewhere can be at equipoise with this pathogen.

Diabetes in the young - a global view and worldwide estimates of numbers of children with type 1 diabetes

This paper describes the methodology, results and limitations of the 2013 International Diabetes Federation (IDF) Atlas (6th edition) estimates of the worldwide numbers of prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes in children (<15 years). The majority of relevant information in the published literature is in the form of incidence rates derived from registers of newly diagnosed cases. Studies were graded on quality criteria and, if no information was available in the published literature, extrapolation was used to assign a country the rate from an adjacent country with similar characteristics. Prevalence rates were then derived from these incidence rates and applied to United Nations 2012 Revision population estimates for 2013 for each country to obtain estimates of the number of prevalent cases. Data availability was highest for the countries in Europe (76%) and lowest for the countries in sub-Saharan Africa (8%). The prevalence estimates indicate that there are almost 500,000 children aged under 15 years with type 1 diabetes worldwide, the largest numbers being in Europe (129,000) and North America (108,700). Countries with the highest estimated numbers of new cases annually were the United States (13,000), India (10,900) and Brazil (5000). Compared with the prevalence estimates made in previous editions of the IDF Diabetes Atlas, the numbers have increased in most of the IDF Regions, often reflecting the incidence rate increases that have been well-documented in many countries. Monogenic diabetes is increasingly being recognised among those with clinical features of type 1 or type 2 diabetes as genetic studies become available, but population-based data on incidence and prevalence show wide variation due to lack of standardisation in the studies. Similarly, studies on type 2 diabetes in childhood suggest increased incidence and prevalence in many countries, especially in Indigenous peoples and ethnic minorities, but detailed population-based studies remain limited.

Off-road sampling reveals a different grassland bird community than roadside sampling: implications for survey design and estimates to guide conservation

Grassland bird species continue to decline steeply across North America. Road-based surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) are often used to estimate trends and population sizes and to build species distribution models for grassland birds, although roadside survey counts may introduce bias in estimates because of differences in habitats along roadsides and in off-road surveys. We tested for differences in land cover composition and in the avian community on 21 roadside-based survey routes and in an equal number of adjacent off-road walking routes in the grasslands of southern Alberta, Canada. Off-road routes (n = 225 point counts) had more native grassland and short shrubs and less fallow land and road area than the roadside routes (n = 225 point counts). Consequently, 17 of the 39 bird species differed between the two route types in frequency of occurrence and relative abundance, measured using an indicator species analysis. Six species, including five obligate grassland species, were more prevalent at off-road sites; they included four species listed under the Canadian federal Species At Risk Act or listed by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada: Sprague’s Pipit (Anthus spragueii), Baird’s Sparrow (Ammodramus bairdii), the Chestnut-collared Longspur (Calcarius ornatus), and McCown’s Longspur (Rhynchophanes mccownii). The six species were as much as four times more abundant on off-road sites. Species more prevalent along roadside routes included common species and those typical of farmland and other human-modified habitats, e.g., the European Starling (Sturnus vulgaris), the Black-billed Magpie (Pica hudsonia), and the House Sparrow (Passer domesticus). Differences in avian community composition between roadside and off-road surveys suggest that the use of BBS data when generating population estimates or distribution models may overestimate certain common species and underestimate others of conservation concern. Our results highlight the need to develop appropriate corrections for bias in estimates derived from roadside sampling, and the need to design surveys that sample bird communities across a more representative cross-section of the landscape, both near and far from roads. 

Quantitative variation in the tropical maize population, ESALQ-PB1

A boa produtividade e os valores intermediários para altura da planta e altura da espiga caracterizam a população de milho ESALQ-PB1 como agronomicamente promissora. São relatadas estimativas de parâmetros para 13 caracteres: altura da planta (PH), altura da espiga (EH), posição relativa da espiga (EP), comprimento do pendão (TL), peso do pendão (TW), número de ramificações do pendão (TB), peso de espigas (EW), peso de grãos (GW), comprimento da espiga (EL), diâmetro da espiga (ED), número de fileiras de grãos (RN), número de grãos por fileira (KR) e prolificidade (PR). Os resultados se referem a um único ambiente (um local e um ano). Foi detectada variação genética para todos os caracteres, e são apresentadas estimativas da variância genética aditiva. Os coeficientes de herdabilidade (indivíduos) variaram de 0,14 a 0,72 e foram considerados altos para PH, EH e TB; intermediários para EP, TL, TW, EL e ED, e baixos para EW, GW, KR e PR. O coeficiente de herdabilidade para médias de progênies mostrou aproximadamente a mesma tendência, variando de 0,40 a 0,75. O maior ganho esperado por seleção foi para TB (27% por ciclo) sob seleção massal e para TW (16,4%) por seleção entre progênies; o menor ganho esperado foi para ED, tanto por seleção massal (1,9%) como por seleção entre progênies (2,9%). Coeficientes de correlação aditiva (rA) 0.5

POPULATION ASSESSMENTS OF INFECTION WITH SCHISTOSOMA MANSONI: EFFECTS OF BIAS CAUSED BY THE RELATIVE SENSITIVITY OF DIAGNOSTIC TECHNIQUES (PUERTO RICO)

This study establishes the extent and relevance of bias of population estimates of prevalence, incidence, and intensity of infection with Schistosoma mansoni caused by the relative sensitivity of stool examination techniques. The population studied was Parcelas de Boqueron in Las Piedras, Puerto Rico, where the Centers for Disease Control, had undertaken a prospective community-based study of infection with S. mansoni in 1972. During each January of the succeeding years stool specimens from this population were processed according to the modified Ritchie concentration (MRC) technique. During January 1979 additional stool specimens were collected from 30 individuals selected on the basis of their mean S. mansoni egg output during previous years. Each specimen was divided into ten 1-gm aliquots and three 42-mg aliquots. The relationship of egg counts obtained with the Kato-Katz (KK) thick smear technique as a function of the mean of ten counts obtained with the MRC technique was established by means of regression analysis. Additionally, the effect of fecal sample size and egg excretion level on technique sensitivity was evaluated during a blind assessment of single stool specimen samples, using both examination methods, from 125 residents with documented S. mansoni infections. The regression equation was: Ln KK = 2.3324 + 0.6319 Ln MRC, and the coefficient of determination (r('2)) was 0.73. The regression equation was then utilized to correct the term "m" for sample size in the expression P ((GREATERTHEQ) 1 egg) = 1 - e('-ms), which estimates the probability P of finding at least one egg as a function of the mean S. mansoni egg output "m" of the population and the effective stool sample size "s" utilized by the coprological technique. This algorithm closely approximated the observed sensitivity of the KK and MRC tests when these were utilized to blindly screen a population of known parasitologic status for infection with S. mansoni. In addition, the algorithm was utilized to adjust the apparent prevalence of infection for the degree of functional sensitivity exhibited by the diagnostic test. This permitted the estimation of true prevalence of infection and, hence, a means for correcting estimates of incidence of infection. ^

Population monitoring for kangaroo management

In wildlife management, the program of monitoring will depend on the management objective. If the objective is damage mitigation, then ideally it is damage that should be monitored. Alternatively, population size (N) can be used as a surrogate for damage, but the relationship between N and damage obviously needs to be known. If the management objective is a sustainable harvest, then the system of monitoring will depend on the harvesting strategy. In general, the harvest strategy in all states has been to offer a quota that is a constant proportion of population size. This strategy has a number of advantages over alternative strategies, including a low risk of over- or underharvest in a stochastic environment, simplicity, robustness to bias in population estimates and allowing harvest policy to be proactive rather than reactive. However, the strategy requires an estimate of absolute population size that needs to be made regularly for a fluctuating population. Trends in population size and in various harvest statistics, while of interest, are secondary. This explains the large research effort in further developing accurate estimation methods for kangaroo populations. Direct monitoring on a large scale is costly. Aerial surveys are conducted annually at best, and precision of population estimates declines with the area over which estimates are made. Management at a fine scale (temporal or spatial) therefore requires other monitoring tools. Indirect monitoring through harvest statistics and habitat models, that include rainfall or a greenness index from satellite imagery, may prove useful.

Estimating Population Trends in American Woodcock (Scolopax Minor) Using Population Reconstruction Models

The American woodcock (Scolopax minor) population index in North America has declined 0.9% a year since 1968 prompting managers to identify priority information and management needs for the species (Sauer et al 2008). Managers identified a need for a population model that better informs on the status of American woodcock populations (Case et al. 2010). Population reconstruction techniques use long-term age-at-harvest data and harvest effort to estimate abundances with error estimates. Four new models were successfully developed using survey data (1999 to 2013). The optimal model estimates sex specific harvest probability for adult females at 0.148 (SE = 0.017) and all other age-sex cohorts at 0.082 (SE = 0.008) for the most current year 2013. The model estimated a yearly survival rate of 0.528 (SE = 0.008). Total abundance ranged from 5,206,000 woodcock in 2007 to 6,075,800 woodcock in 1999. This study represents the first population estimates of woodcock populations.

Assigning metabolic equivalent (MET) values to the 2002 Census Occupational Classification System

Background: The Current Population Survey (CPS) and the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) use the 2002 census occupation system to classify workers into 509 separate occupations arranged into 22 major occupational categories. Methods: We describe the methods and rationale for assigning detailed MET estimates to occupations and present population estimates (comparing outputs generated by analysis of previously published summary MET estimates to the detailed MET estimates) of intensities of occupational activity using the 2003 ATUS data comprised of 20,720 respondents, 5,323 (2,917 males and 2,406 females) of whom reported working 6+ hours at their primary occupation on their assigned reporting day. Results: Analysis using the summary MET estimates resulted in 4% more workers in sedentary occupations, 6% more in light, 7% less in moderate, and 3% less in vigorous compared to using the detailed MET estimates. The detailed estimates are more sensitive to identifying individuals who do any occupational activity that is moderate or vigorous in intensity resulting in fewer workers in sedentary and light intensity occupations. Conclusions: Since CPS/ATUS regularly captures occupation data it will be possible to track prevalence of the different intensity levels of occupations. Updates will be required with inevitable adjustments to future occupational classification systems.

Carrying capacity dashboard analyses : Australian case studies of populations scaled to place

In a globalised world, it makes sense to examine our demands on the landscape through the wide-angle lens of ecological footprint analysis. However, the important impetus towards a more localised societal system suggests a review of this approach and a return to its origins in carrying capacity assessment. The determination of whether we live within or beyond our carrying capacity is entirely scalar, with national, regional and local assessments dependent not only on the choices of the population but the capability of a landscape - at scale. The Carrying Capacity Dashboard, an openly accessible online modelling interface, has been developed for Australian conditions, facilitating analysis at various scales. Like ecological footprint analysis it allows users to test a variety of societal behaviours such as diet, consumption patterns, farming systems and ecological protection practices; but unlike the footprint approach, the results are uniquely tailored to place. This paper examines population estimates generated by the Carrying Capacity Dashboard. It compares results in various scales of analysis, from national to local. It examines the key behavioural choices influencing Australian carrying capacity estimates. For instance, the assumption that the consumption of red meat automatically lowers carrying capacity is examined and in some cases, debunked. Lastly, it examines the implications of implementing carrying capacity assessment globally, but not through a wide angle lens; rather, by examining the landscape one locality at a time.

Pooled biological specimens for human biomonitoring of environmental chemicals : opportunities and limitations

Biomonitoring has become the ‘gold standard’ in assessing chemical exposures, and plays an important role in risk assessment. The pooling of biological specimens – combining multiple individual specimens into a single sample – can be used in biomonitoring studies to monitor levels of exposure and identify exposure trends, or to identify susceptible populations in a cost-effective manner. Pooled samples provide an estimate of central tendency, and may also reveal information about variation within the population. The development of a pooling strategy requires careful consideration of the type and number of samples collected, the number of pools required, and the number of specimens to combine per pool in order to maximize the type and robustness of the data. Creative pooling strategies can be used to explore exposure-outcome associations, and extrapolation from other larger studies can be useful in identifying elevated exposures in specific individuals. The use of pooled specimens is advantageous as it saves significantly on analytical costs, may reduce the time and resources required for recruitment, and in certain circumstances, allows quantification of samples approaching the limit of detection. In addition, use of pooled samples can provide population estimates while avoiding ethical difficulties that may be associated with reporting individual results.

Validity and reliability of the 3-day physical activity recall in Singaporean adolescents

Childhood obesity and physical inactivity are major health concerns for the Singaporean government (Ministry of Health, Singapore [MOH], 2001). Data from the 1998 Singaporean National Health Survey indicate that 10.8–14.7% of Singaporean children ages 6–16 years are either overweight or obese (MOH, 2001). Although true population estimates of youth physical activity are not available, descriptive epidemiological studies conducted in the 1990s suggest that a large percentage of school-aged children in Singapore fail to meet established guidelines for participation in physical activity...

Low-density koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) populations in the mulgalands of south-west Queensland. IV. Abundance and conservation status

Urban encroachment on dense, coastal koala populations has ensured that their management has received increasing government and public attention. The recently developed National Koala Conservation Strategy calls for maintenance of viable populations in the wild. Yet the success of this, and other, conservation initiatives is hampered by lack of reliable and generally accepted national and regional population estimates. In this paper we address this problem in a potentially large, but poorly studied, regional population in the State that is likely to have the largest wild populations. We draw on findings from previous reports in this series and apply the faecal standing-crop method (FSCM) to derive a regional estimate of more than 59 000 individuals. Validation trials in riverine communities showed that estimates of animal density obtained from the FSCM and direct observation were in close agreement. Bootstrapping and Monte Carlo simulations were used to obtain variance estimates for our population estimates in different vegetation associations across the region. The most favoured habitat was riverine vegetation, which covered only 0.9% of the region but supported 45% of the koalas. We also estimated that between 1969 and 1995 -30% of the native vegetation associations that are considered as potential koala habitat were cleared, leading to a decline of perhaps 10% in koala numbers. Management of this large regional population has significant implications for the national conservation of the species: the continued viability of this population is critically dependent on the retention and management of riverine and residual vegetation communities, and future vegetation-management guidelines should be cognisant of the potential impacts of clearing even small areas of critical habitat. We also highlight eight management implications.