Evaluación de parámetros que influyen en el transporte de cloruros en hormigón parcialmente saturado

El deterioro del hormigón debido a la presencia del ion cloruro es causa frecuente de problemas en estructuras localizadas en ambiente marino y alta montaña. Su principal efecto consiste en la despasivación del acero de refuerzo embebido en el hormigón y su consecuente inicio de la corrosión del mismo. El ingreso del ion cloruro al interior del hormigón, está condicionado por una serie de parámetros de origen medioambiental e intrínsecos del hormigón. En función de estos parámetros el ingreso de cloruros en el hormigón puede deberse principalmente a los siguientes mecanismos: difusión y succión capilar. El estudio y evaluación de la resistencia del hormigón frente a cloruros, se ha desarrollado principalmente en condiciones saturadas del hormigón. Lo que ha significado que parámetros de importancia no sean considerados. Debido a esto, distintos procesos que suceden en estructuras reales no han sido identificados y estudiados correctamente. En este trabajo, se diseñó un programa de investigación para evaluar los parámetros que influyen en el transporte cloruros en hormigones no saturados. Para esto se diseñaron tres dosificaciones diferentes de hormigón. En la primera se empleó únicamente cemento portland, para el resto se utilizaron adiciones minerales (humo de sílice y escoria de alto horno). El empleo de adiciones se debió a que tienen un papel importante en la durabilidad de hormigones frente a cloruros. Los hormigones fueron dosificados con una relación agua/material cementício de 0,40 para el hormigón elaborado únicamente con cemento portland y 0,45 para las mezclas con adiciones. Para evaluar las propiedades de los hormigones en estado fresco y endurecido se realizaron ensayos vigentes en las normativas. Con los resultados obtenidos se determinaron parámetros de resistencia mecánica, microestructurales, resistencia al transporte de cloruros e higroscópicos. Una vez caracterizados los hormigones, se diseñó una propuesta experimental para estudiar los principales parámetros presentes en estructuras reales con presencia de cloruros. Tanto la concentración de cloruro como las condiciones ambientales se han variado teniendo como referencia las situaciones reales que podrían producirse en ambientes de alta montaña en la zona centro de España. La propuesta experimental consistió en tratar de evaluar la capacidad de los hormigones al transporte de iones en ambientes de alta montaña con presencia de sales fundentes. Para esto se establecieron 5 fases experimentales donde los principales parámetros ambientales y la presencia de iones agresivos sufrieron variaciones. Al término de cada fase se obtuvieron perfiles de penetración de cloruros en los hormigones y se evaluó la influencia de los parámetros presentes en cada fase. Los resultados experimentales se implementaron en un modelo numérico basado en la teoría de elementos finitos, desarrollado por el grupo de investigación del Departamento de Materiales de Construcción. Para esto fue necesario realizar la calibración y validación del modelo numérico para cada hormigón. El calibrado del modelo precisa de datos químicos y microestructurales de cada hormigón, tales como: capacidad de combinación de cloruros y propiedades difusivas e higroscópicas. Para la validación del modelo numérico se realizaron simulaciones de la propuesta experimental. Los resultados obtenidos se compararon con los valores experimentales. Con el objeto de poder estudiar en mayor profundidad la influencia del grado de saturación del hormigón durante la difusión de cloruros, se llevó a cabo una campaña experimental que consideró distintos grados de saturación en los hormigones. Para esto se establecieron en los hormigones cuatro grados de saturación distintos (50%, 60%, 80% y 100%, aproximadamente), posteriormente se expusieron a cloruro de sodio finamente molido. Una vez transcurrido el tiempo necesario se obtuvieron experimentalmente los perfiles de penetración de cloruros para cada grado de saturación y se calcularon los coeficientes de difusión. Los datos obtenidos durante la campaña experimental han demostrado la influencia positiva que ejercen las adiciones en las mezclas de hormigón. Sus principales ventajas son el refinamiento de la red porosa y el aumento en la capacidad de combinación de cloruros, además de mejorar sus propiedades mecánicas. La porosidad total en las mezclas no presentó grandes cambios, sin embargo, el cambio en la distribución del tamaño de poros es importante en las muestras con adiciones. En especial las fabricadas con humo de sílice. Los coeficientes de difusión y migración de cloruros para las mezclas con adiciones disminuyeron significativamente, igual que los valores de resistividad eléctrica. En los ensayos de penetración del agua bajo presión, fueron las muestras con adiciones las que mostraron las menores penetraciones. Los resultados obtenidos al final de la propuesta experimental permitieron estudiar los distintos parámetros involucrados. Se observó claramente que el proceso de difusión provoca el mayor transporte de cloruros hacia el interior del hormigón. Así mismo se comprobó que el lavado superficial y el secado de las probetas, trasladan cloruros hacia las zonas externas del hormigón. El primero debido a una baja concentración de cloruros externa, mientras que el secado provoca el movimiento de la solución de poro hacia las zonas de secado depositando cloruros en ellas. Las medidas higroscópicas permitieron determinar la existencia de dos zonas distintas en el interior del hormigón. La primera se localizó en el rango de 0-10mm, aproximadamente, en ésta se puso de manifiesto una mayor sensibilidad a los cambios experimentados en el exterior de las probetas. La segunda zona se localizó a una profundidad mayor de 10mm, aproximadamente. Se observó claramente una baja influencia de los cambios externos, siendo la difusión de cloruros el principal mecanismo de transporte presente en ella. En cuanto al estudio de la influencia del grado de saturación en la difusión de cloruros, se observó claramente una marcada diferencia entre los coeficientes de difusión de cloruro obtenidos. Para grados de saturación mayores del 80% el mecanismo de penetración de cloruros por difusión existe de forma significativa. Mientras que para valores inferiores los resultados revelaron que las vías de acceso disminuyen (poros conectado con agua) considerablemente limitando en un alto grado la penetración del agresivo. Para grados de saturación inferiores del 50% los valores del coeficiente de difusión son despreciables. The deterioration of concrete due to chloride ions is a frequent problem identified in structures located in marine and high-mountain environments. After entering the outer layer of the concrete, the chlorides tend to penetrate until they reach and then depassivate the steel bars. Subsequently, this induces the deterioration process of the reinforced concrete. This chloride penetration depends on the environmental conditions and intrinsic parameters of the concrete. Several transport mechanisms, such as diffusion, capillary suction and permeability can be present into the concrete. While recent research into the study and evaluation of concretes with chloride presence has been carried out in saturated concrete, it has not considered certain parameters that can modify this condition. Consequently, at the time of writing several processes that take place in real structures have not been identified and studied. In this work a research programme is designed to evaluate the parameters that influence chloride transport into non-saturated concrete. For this, three concrete mixes were designed by using high-early-strength Portland cement and mineral admixtures (silica fume and blast-slag furnace). The water-cement ratio was 0.40 for the concrete made solely with Portland cement and 0.45 for the concretes that used mineral admixtures as a cement replacement. A set of experimental tests were performed to evaluate the concrete properties both in fresh and hardened state. In addition, an experimental simulation was carried out under laboratory conditions in which the main objective was to assess resistance of concrete to chloride penetration under high-mountain conditions with the presence of de-icing salts. The environmental conditions and surface chloride concentration of the concrete used during the experimental simulation were chosen by considering conditions found in the high-mountain environment in central Spain. For the experimental simulation five phases were designed by varying the environmental parameters and concrete surface concentration. At the end of each phase a chloride profile was obtained with the aim of assessing the influence of the parameters on chloride transport. The experimental results were then used to calibrate and validate a numerical model based on finite element theory developed by the research team from the Construction Materials Department in a previous work. In order to carry out model calibration chemical and microstructural data for the concretes was required, such as binding capacity and the diffusive and hygroscopic properties. The experimental results were compared with the numerical simulations and provided a good fit. With the objective of studying the influence of the degree of concrete saturation on chloride diffusion, an experimental programme was designed. This entailed four saturation degrees (50%, 60%, 80% and 100%) being established in several concrete samples. The samples were then exposed to ground sodium chloride. Once the time required was achieved, the chloride profiles and diffusion coefficients were obtained for each saturation degree. The results obtained from the experimental program revealed a positive influence of the mineral admixtures on the concretes. Their effects were reflected in the pore-network refinement and the increase of chloride binding capacity, together with the improvement of the mechanical properties of the concretes. Total porosity did not reveal any notable change, though the pore-size distribution showed a significant degree of change in the concretes with mineral admixtures, specifically the samples prepared through use of silica fume. The chloride diffusion and migration coefficient, as well as the electrical resistivity values, decreased significantly in the concretes with admixtures. In the water penetration under pressure test, the concretes with admixtures presented the lowest penetration depth. The results obtained in the experimental simulation allowed study of the main parameters involved during the chloride penetration processes in non-saturated concretes in the presence of chlorides. According to the results, the diffusion process was the transport mechanism that transferred the greatest amount of chlorides into the concrete samples. In addition, a chloride movement toward external zones of the concrete, caused by the washing of concrete surface and the drying processes, was identified. The washing occurred when the concrete surface came into contact with a low-chloride concentration solution which initiated the outward movement of chloride diffusion. The drying processes corresponded to a movement of pore solution launched by water evaporation from the outer layer. Furthermore, hygroscopic measurements made in the concrete allowed two areas with distinct behavioural patterns to be identified. The first one, located in the range of approximately 0-10mm, showed a greater degree of influence regarding the changes of the external conditions. The second, situated at depths greater than 10mm, displayed a low influence of external conditions. The main process in this area was diffusion. Study of the influence of the degree of concrete saturation on chloride diffusion showed a clear difference among the chloride diffusion coefficients obtained. For degrees of concrete saturation higher than 80%, chloride penetration by diffusion tends to be significant. However, in the case of extent of saturation of lower than 80%, the results revealed that the access zone through which chlorides can penetrate decreased considerably. For degrees of concrete saturation lower than 50%, the chloride diffusion coefficients were negligible.

Intra-ring variability of Cr, As, Cd, and Pb in red oak revealed by secondary ion mass spectrometry: Implications for environmental biomonitoring

Reconstructing the history of ambient levels of metals by using tree-ring chemistry is controversial. This controversy can be resolved in part through the use of selective microanalysis of individual wood cells. Using a combination of instrumental neutron activation analysis and secondary ion mass spectrometry, we have observed systematic inhomogeneity in the abundance of toxic metals (Cr, As, Cd, and Pb) within annual growth rings of Quercus rubra (red oak) and have characterized individual xylem members responsible for introducing micrometer-scale gradients in toxic metal abundances. These gradients are useful for placing constraints on both the magnitude and the mechanism of heavy metal translocation within growing wood. It should now be possible to test, on a metal-by-metal basis, the suitability of using tree-ring chemistries for deciphering long-term records of many environmental metals.

Immunolocalization of ion transport proteins in human autosomal dominant polycystic kidney epithelial cells.

The kidneys of patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease become massively enlarged due to the progressive expansion of myriad fluid-filled cysts. The epithelial cells that line the cyst walls are responsible for secreting the cyst fluid, but the mechanism through which this secretion occurs is not well established. Recent studies suggest that renal cyst epithelial cells actively secrete Cl across their apical membranes, which in turn drives the transepithelial movement of Na and water. The characteristics of this secretory flux suggest that it is dependent upon the participation of an apical cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR)-like Cl channel and basolateral Na,K-ATPase. To test this hypothesis, we have immunolocalized the CFTR and Na,K-ATPase proteins in intact cysts and in cyst epithelial cells cultured in vitro on permeable filter supports. In both settings, cyst epithelial cells were found to possess Na,K-ATPase exclusively at their basolateral surfaces; apical labeling was not detected. The CFTR protein was present at the apical surfaces of cyst epithelial cells that had been stimulated to secrete through incubation in forskolin. CFTR was detected in intracellular structures in cultured cyst epithelial cells that had not received the forskolin treatment. These results demonstrate that the renal epithelial cells that line cysts in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease express transport systems with the appropriate polarity to mediate active Cl and fluid secretion.

Electrical investigation of p-type 4H-SiC heavily doped by ion implantation

In the last decades, an increasing interest in the research field of wide bandgap semiconductors was observed, mostly due to the progressive approaching of silicon-based devices to their theoretical limits. 4H-SiC is an example among these, and is a mature compound for applications. The main advantages offered 4H-SiC in comparison with silicon are an higher breakdown field, an higher thermal conductivity, a higher operating temperature, very high hardness and melting point, biocompatibility, but also low switching losses in high frequencies applications and lower on-resistances in unipolar devices. Then, 4H-SiC power devices offer great performance improvement; moreover, they can work in hostile environments where silicon power devices cannot function. Ion implantation technology is a key process in the fabrication of almost all kinds of SiC devices, owing to the advantage of a spatially selective doping. This work is dedicated to the electrical investigation of several differently-processed 4H-SiC ion- implanted samples, mainly through Hall effect and space charge spectroscopy experiments. It was also developed the automatic control (Labview) of several experiments. In the work, the effectiveness of high temperature post-implant thermal treatments (up to 2000°C) were studied and compared considering: (i) different methods, (ii) different temperatures and (iii) different duration of the annealing process. Preliminary p + /n and Schottky junctions were also investigated as simple test devices. 1) Heavy doping by ion implantation of single off-axis 4H-SiC layers The electrical investigation is one of the most important characterization of ion-implanted samples, which must be submitted to mandatory post-implant thermal treatment in order to both (i) recover the lattice after ion bombardment, and (ii) address the implanted impurities into lattice sites so that they can effectively act as dopants. Electrical investigation can give fundamental information on the efficiency of the electrical impurity activation. To understand the results of the research it should be noted that: (a) To realize good ohmic contacts it is necessary to obtain spatially defined highly doped regions, which must have conductivity as low as possible. (b) It has been shown that the electrical activation efficiency and the electrical conductivity increase with the annealing temperature increasing. (c) To maximize the layer conductivity, temperatures around 1700°C are generally used and implantation density high till to 10 21 cm -3 . In this work, an original approach, different from (c), is explored by the using very high annealing temperature, around 2000°C, on samples of Al + -implant concentration of the order of 10 20 cm -3 . Several Al + -implanted 4H-SiC samples, resulting of p-type conductivity, were investigated, with a nominal density varying in the range of about 1-5∙10 20 cm -3 and subjected to two different high temperature thermal treatments. One annealing method uses a radiofrequency heated furnace till to 1950°C (Conventional Annealing, CA), the other exploits a microwave field, providing a fast heating rate up to 2000°C (Micro-Wave Annealing, MWA). In this contest, mainly ion implanted p-type samples were investigated, both off-axis and on-axis <0001> semi-insulating 4H-SiC. Concerning p-type off-axis samples, a high electrical activation of implanted Al (50-70%) and a compensation ratio below 10% were estimated. In the work, the main sample processing parameters have been varied, as the implant temperature, CA annealing duration, and heating/cooling rates, and the best values assessed. MWA method leads to higher hole density and lower mobility than CA in equivalent ion implanted layers, resulting in lower resistivity, probably related to the 50°C higher annealing temperature. An optimal duration of the CA treatment was estimated in about 12-13 minutes. A RT resistivity on the lowest reported in literature for this kind of samples, has been obtained. 2) Low resistivity data: variable range hopping Notwithstanding the heavy p-type doping levels, the carrier density remained less than the critical one required for a semiconductor to metal transition. However, the high carrier densities obtained was enough to trigger a low temperature impurity band (IB) conduction. In the heaviest doped samples, such a conduction mechanism persists till to RT, without significantly prejudice the mobility values. This feature can have an interesting technological fall, because it guarantee a nearly temperature- independent carrier density, it being not affected by freeze-out effects. The usual transport mechanism occurring in the IB conduction is the nearest neighbor hopping: such a regime is effectively consistent with the resistivity temperature behavior of the lowest doped samples. In the heavier doped samples, however, a trend of the resistivity data compatible with a variable range hopping (VRH) conduction has been pointed out, here highlighted for the first time in p-type 4H-SiC. Even more: in the heaviest doped samples, and in particular, in those annealed by MWA, the temperature dependence of the resistivity data is consistent with a reduced dimensionality (2D) of the VRH conduction. In these samples, TEM investigation pointed out faulted dislocation loops in the basal plane, whose average spacing along the c-axis is comparable with the optimal length of the hops in the VRH transport. This result suggested the assignment of such a peculiar behavior to a kind of spatial confinement into a plane of the carrier hops. 3) Test device the p + -n junction In the last part of the work, the electrical properties of 4H-SiC diodes were also studied. In this case, a heavy Al + ion implantation was realized on n-type epilayers, according to the technological process applied for final devices. Good rectification properties was shown from these preliminary devices in their current-voltage characteristics. Admittance spectroscopy and deep level transient spectroscopy measurements showed the presence of electrically active defects other than the dopants ones, induced in the active region of the diodes by ion implantation. A critical comparison with the literature of these defects was performed. Preliminary to such an investigation, it was assessed the experimental set up for the admittance spectroscopy and current-voltage investigation and the automatic control of these measurements.

Dispersivity Determination Through a Modeling Approach From a Tracer Test Based on Total Br Concentration in Soil Samples

Determination of reliable solute transport parameters is an essential aspect for the characterization of the mechanisms and processes involved in solute transport (e.g., pesticides, fertilizers, contaminants) through the unsaturated zone. A rapid inexpensive method to estimate the dispersivity parameter at the field scale is presented herein. It is based on the quantification by the X-ray fluorescence solid-state technique of total bromine in soil, along with an inverse numerical modeling approach. The results show that this methodology is a good alternative to the classic Br− determination in soil water by ion chromatography. A good agreement between the observed and simulated total soil Br is reported. The results highlight the potential applicability of both combined techniques to infer readily solute transport parameters under field conditions.

Genetic assignment methods for the direct, real-time estimation of migration rate: a simulation-based exploration of accuracy and power

Genetic assignment methods use genotype likelihoods to draw inference about where individuals were or were not born, potentially allowing direct, real-time estimates of dispersal. We used simulated data sets to test the power and accuracy of Monte Carlo resampling methods in generating statistical thresholds for identifying F-0 immigrants in populations with ongoing gene flow, and hence for providing direct, real-time estimates of migration rates. The identification of accurate critical values required that resampling methods preserved the linkage disequilibrium deriving from recent generations of immigrants and reflected the sampling variance present in the data set being analysed. A novel Monte Carlo resampling method taking into account these aspects was proposed and its efficiency was evaluated. Power and error were relatively insensitive to the frequency assumed for missing alleles. Power to identify F-0 immigrants was improved by using large sample size (up to about 50 individuals) and by sampling all populations from which migrants may have originated. A combination of plotting genotype likelihoods and calculating mean genotype likelihood ratios (D-LR) appeared to be an effective way to predict whether F-0 immigrants could be identified for a particular pair of populations using a given set of markers.

Animal migration: is there a common migratory syndrome?

Ornithologists, and especially northern hemisphere ornithologists, have traditionally thought of migration as an annual return movement of populations between regular breeding and non-breeding grounds. Problems arise because selection does not ordinarily act on populations and because organisms of many taxa (including birds) are clearly migrants, but fail to undertake movements of the kind described. There are also extensive return movements that are not migratory. I propose that it is more useful to think of migration as a syndrome of behavioral and other traits that function together within individuals, and that such a syndrome provides a common ground across taxa from aphids to albatrosses. Large-scale return movements of populations are one outcome of the syndrome. Similar behavioral and physiological traits serve both to define migration and to provide a test for it. I use two insect (Hemipteran) examples to illustrate migratory syndromes and to demonstrate that, in many migrants, behavior and physiology correlate with life history and morphological traits to form syndromes at two levels. I then compare the two Hemipterans with migration in birds, butterflies, and fish to assess the question of whether there are migratory syndromes in common between these diverse migrants. Syndromes are more similar at the level of behavior than when morphology and life history traits are included. Recognizing syndromes leads to important evolutionary questions concerning migration strategies, trade-offs, the maintenance of genetic variance and the responses of migratory syndromes to both similar and different selective regimes.

Highly selective Pd/titanate nanotube catalysts for the double-bond migration reaction

Pd(II) and Pd(0) catalysts supported onto titanate nanotubes (H2Ti3O7) were prepared by an ion-exchange technique. The catalysts are characterised by narrow size distribution of metal nanoparticles on the external surface of the nanotubes. Pd(II) catalysts show high selectivity toward double-bond migration reaction versus hydrogenation in linear olefins. The catalytic activity exhibits a volcano-type dependence on the metal loading, with the maximum activity observed at ca. 8 wt%. The Pd(II) was shown to be rapidly reduced to Pd(0) by appropriate choice of solvent. Prereduced Pd(0) catalysts were found to be less active toward double-bond migration and more selective toward hydrogenation. The DBM reaction was faster in protic solvents, such as methanol or ethanol. © 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Parametric Identification and Diagnosis of Integrated Navigation Systems in Bench Test Process

Growth of complexity and functional importance of integrated navigation systems (INS) leads to high losses at the equipment refusals. The paper is devoted to the INS diagnosis system development, allowing identifying the cause of malfunction. The proposed solutions permit taking into account any changes in sensors dynamic and accuracy characteristics by means of the appropriate error models coefficients. Under actual conditions of INS operation, the determination of current values of the sensor models and estimation filter parameters rely on identification procedures. The results of full-scale experiments are given, which corroborate the expediency of INS error models parametric identification in bench test process.

Voting with their feet: Migration, partisanship, and party-safe elections in Florida

Political scientists have long noted that Congressional elections are often uncompetitive, often extremely so. Many scholars argue that the cause lies in the partisan redistricting of Congressional districts, or “gerrymandering”. Other scholars emphasize polarization created by a fragmented news media, or the candidate choices made by a more ideological primary electorate. All these explanations identify the cause of party-safe elections in institutions of various kinds. This dissertation, by contrast, presents a structural explanation of uncompetitive elections. My theory is that population composition and patterns of migration are significant causes and predictors of election results in Florida. I test this theory empirically by comparing the predictions from four hypotheses against aggregate data, using the county as the unit of analysis. The first hypothesis is that Florida can be divided into clearly distinguishable, persistent partisan sections. This hypothesis is confirmed. The second hypothesis is that Florida voters have become increasingly partisan over time. This hypothesis is confirmed. The third hypothesis is that the degree of migration into a county predicts how that county will vote. This hypothesis is partially confirmed, for the migration effect appears to have waned over time. The last hypothesis is that the degree of religiosity of a county population is a predictor of how that county will vote. This hypothesis is also supported by the results of statistical analysis. By identifying the structural causes of party-safe elections, this dissertation not only broadens our understanding of elections in Florida, but also sheds light on the current polarization in American politics.

Social Capital and International Migration from Latin America

We combine data from the Latin American Migration Project and the Mexican Migration Project to estimate models predicting the likelihood of taking of first and later trips to the United States from five nations: Mexico, the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Peru. The models test specific hypotheses about the effects of social capital on international migration and how these effects vary with respect to contextual factors. Our findings confirm the ubiquity of migrant networks and the universality of social capital effects throughout Latin America. They also reveal how the sizes of these effects are not uniform across settings. Social capital operates more powerfully on first as opposed to later trips and interacts with the cost of migration. In addition, effects are somewhat different when considering individual social capital (measuring strong ties) and community social capital (measuring weak ties). On first trips, the effect of strong ties in promoting migration increases with distance whereas the effect of weak ties decreases with distance. On later trips, the direction of effects for both individual and community social capital is negative for long distances but positive for short distances.

Degree of conversion of different composite resins photo-activated with light-emitting diode and argon ion laser

This study evaluated the degree of conversion (DC%) of one experimental and different brands of composite resins light-cured by two light sources (one LED and one argon laser). The percentage of unreacted C = C was determined from the ratio of absorbance intensities of aliphatic C = C (peak at 1637 cm−1) against internal standards before and after curing: aromatic C–C (peak at 1610 cm−1) except for P90, where %C = C bonds was given for C–O–C (883 cm−1) and C–C (1257 cm−1). ANOVA and Tukey’s test revealed no statistically significant difference among Z350 (67.17), Z250 (69.52) and experimental (66.61 ± 2.03) with LED, just among them and Evolu-X (75.51) and P90 (32.05) that showed higher and lower DC%, respectively. For the argon laser, there were no differences among Z250 (70.67), Z350 (69.60), experimental (65.66) and Evolu-X (73, 37), however a significant difference was observed for P90 (36.80), which showed lowest DC%. The light sources showed similar DC%, however the main difference was observed regarding the composite resins. The lowest DC% was observed for the argon laser. P90 showed the lowest DC% for both light-curing sources.

Foraminifera Mg/Ca, test weight and XDX for sediment core WIND28K

A record of deep-sea calcite saturation (D[CO3**-2]), derived from X-ray computed tomography-based foraminifer dissolution index, XDX, was constructed for the past 150 ka for a core from the deep (4157 m) tropical western Indian Ocean. G. sacculifer and N. dutertrei recorded a similar dissolution history, consistent with the process of calcite compensation. Peaks in calcite saturation (~15 µmol/kg higher than the present-day value) occurred during deglaciations and early in MIS 3. Dissolution maxima coincided with transitions to colder stages. The mass record of G. sacculifer better indicated preservation than did that of N. dutertrei or G. ruber. Dissolution-corrected Mg/Ca-derived SST records, like other SST records from marginal Indian Ocean sites, showed coolest temperatures of the last 150 ka in early MIS 3, when mixed layer temperatures were ~4°C lower than present SST. Temperatures recorded by N. dutertrei showed the thermocline to be ~4°C colder in MIS 3 compared to the Holocene (8 ka B.P.).

Temporal aggregation of migration counts can improve accuracy and precision of trends

Temporal replicate counts are often aggregated to improve model fit by reducing zero-inflation and count variability, and in the case of migration counts collected hourly throughout a migration, allows one to ignore nonindependence. However, aggregation can represent a loss of potentially useful information on the hourly or seasonal distribution of counts, which might impact our ability to estimate reliable trends. We simulated 20-year hourly raptor migration count datasets with known rate of change to test the effect of aggregating hourly counts to daily or annual totals on our ability to recover known trend. We simulated data for three types of species, to test whether results varied with species abundance or migration strategy: a commonly detected species, e.g., Northern Harrier, Circus cyaneus; a rarely detected species, e.g., Peregrine Falcon, Falco peregrinus; and a species typically counted in large aggregations with overdispersed counts, e.g., Broad-winged Hawk, Buteo platypterus. We compared accuracy and precision of estimated trends across species and count types (hourly/daily/annual) using hierarchical models that assumed a Poisson, negative binomial (NB) or zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) count distribution. We found little benefit of modeling zero-inflation or of modeling the hourly distribution of migration counts. For the rare species, trends analyzed using daily totals and an NB or ZINB data distribution resulted in a higher probability of detecting an accurate and precise trend. In contrast, trends of the common and overdispersed species benefited from aggregation to annual totals, and for the overdispersed species in particular, trends estimating using annual totals were more precise, and resulted in lower probabilities of estimating a trend (1) in the wrong direction, or (2) with credible intervals that excluded the true trend, as compared with hourly and daily counts.