Proportionality and Party Success in Europe

This thesis consists of four articles and an introductory section. The main research questions in all the articles are about proportionality and party success in Europe, at European, national or district levels. Proportionality in this thesis denotes the proximity of seat shares parties receive compared to their respective vote shares, after the electoral system’s allocation process. This proportionality can be measured through numerous indices that illustrate either the overall proportionality of an electoral system or a particular election. The correspondence of a single party’s seat shares to its vote shares can also be measured. The overall proportionality is essential in three of the articles (1, 2 and 4), where the system’s performance is studied by means of plots. In article 3, minority party success is measured by advantage-ratios that reveal single party’s winnings or losses in the votes to seat allocation process. The first article asks how proportional are the European parliamentary (EP) electoral systems, how do they compare with results gained from earlier studies and how do the EP electoral systems treat different sized parties. The reasons for different outcomes are looked for in explanations given by traditional electoral studies i.e. electoral system variables. The countries studied (EU15) apply electoral systems that vary in many important aspects, even though a certain amount of uniformity has been aspired to for decades. Since the electoral systems of the EP elections closely resemble the national elections, the same kinds of profiles emerge as in the national elections. The electoral systems indeed treat the parties differentially and six different profile types can be found. The counting method seems to somewhat determine the profile group, but the strongest variables determining the shape of a countries’ profile appears to be the average district magnitude and number of seats allocated to each country. The second article also focuses on overall proportionality performance of an electoral system, but here the focus is on the impact of electoral system changes. I have developed a new method of visualizing some previously used indices and some new indices for this purpose. The aim is to draw a comparable picture of these electoral systems’ changes and their effects. The cases, which illustrate this method, are four elections systems, where a change has occurred in one of the system variables, while the rest remained unchanged. The studied cases include the French, Greek and British European parliamentary systems and the Swedish national parliamentary system. The changed variables are electoral type (plurality changed to PR in the UK), magnitude (France splitting the nationwide district into eight smaller districts), legal threshold (Greece introducing a three percent threshold) and counting method (d’Hondt was changed to modified Sainte-Laguë in Sweden). The radar plots from elections after and before the changes are drawn for all country cases. When quantifying the change, the change in the plots area that is created has also been calculated. Using these radar plots we can observe that the change in electoral system type, magnitude, and also to some extent legal threshold had an effect on overall proportionality and accessibility for small parties, while the change between the two highest averages counting method had none. The third article studies the success minority parties have had in nine electoral systems in European heterogeneous countries. This article aims to add more motivation as to why we should care how different sized parties are treated by the electoral systems. Since many of the parties that aspire to represent minorities in European countries are small, the possibilities for small parties are highlighted. The theory of consociational (or power-sharing) democracy suggests that, in heterogeneous societies, a proportional electoral system will provide the fairest treatment of minority parties. The OSCE Lund Recommendations propose a number of electoral system features, which would improve minority representation. In this article some party variables, namely the unity of the minority parties and the geographical concentration of the minorities were included among possible explanations. The conclusions are that the central points affecting minority success were indeed these non-electoral system variables rather than the electoral system itself. Moreover, the size of the party was a major factor governing success in all the systems investigated; large parties benefited in all the studied electoral systems. In the fourth article the proportionality profiles are again applied, but this time to district level results in Finnish parliamentary elections. The level of proportionality distortion is also studied by way of indices. The average magnitudes during the studied periodrange from 7.5 to 26.2 in the Finnish electoral districts and this opens up unequal opportunities for parties in different districts and affects the shape of the profiles. The intra-country case allows the focus to be placed on the effect of district magnitude, since all other electoral systems are kept constant in an intra-country study. The time span in the study is from 1962 to 2007, i.e. the time that the districts have largely been the same geographically. The plots and indices tell the same story, district magnitude and electoral alliances matter. The district magnitude is connected to the overall proportionality of the electoral districts according to both indices, and the profiles are, as expected, also closer to perfect proportionality in large districts. Alliances have helped some small parties to gain a much higher seat share than their respective vote share and these successes affect some of the profiles. The profiles also show a consistent pattern of benefits for the small parties who ally with the larger parties.

Change points detection in crime-related time series: an on-line fuzzy approach based on a shape space representation

The extension of traditional data mining methods to time series has been effectively applied to a wide range of domains such as finance, econometrics, biology, security, and medicine. Many existing mining methods deal with the task of change points detection, but very few provide a flexible approach. Querying specific change points with linguistic variables is particularly useful in crime analysis, where intuitive, understandable, and appropriate detection of changes can significantly improve the allocation of resources for timely and concise operations. In this paper, we propose an on-line method for detecting and querying change points in crime-related time series with the use of a meaningful representation and a fuzzy inference system. Change points detection is based on a shape space representation, and linguistic terms describing geometric properties of the change points are used to express queries, offering the advantage of intuitiveness and flexibility. An empirical evaluation is first conducted on a crime data set to confirm the validity of the proposed method and then on a financial data set to test its general applicability. A comparison to a similar change-point detection algorithm and a sensitivity analysis are also conducted. Results show that the method is able to accurately detect change points at very low computational costs. More broadly, the detection of specific change points within time series of virtually any domain is made more intuitive and more understandable, even for experts not related to data mining.

Equivalent representation form of oscillators with elastic and damping nonlinear terms

In this work we consider the nonlinear equivalent representation form of oscillators that exhibit nonlinearities in both the elastic and the damping terms. The nonlinear damping effects are considered to be described by fractional power velocity terms which provide better predictions of the dissipative effects observed in some physical systems. It is shown that their effects on the system dynamics response are equivalent to a shift in the coefficient of the linear damping term of a Duffing oscillator. Then, its numerical integration predictions, based on its equivalent representation form given by the well-known forced, damped Duffing equation, are compared to the numerical integration values of its original equations of motion. The applicability of the proposed procedure is evaluated by studying the dynamics response of four nonlinear oscillators that arise in some engineering applications such as nanoresonators, microresonators, human wrist movements, structural engineering design, and chain dynamics of polymeric materials at high extensibility, among others

From women to gender: a diachronic exploration of participant representation in texts from the United Nations

De förändrade ansatserna inom feministisk utvecklingsekonomi för med sig nya sätt att tala om kvinnor, män och utveckling. Genom att analysera texter skrivna inom området feministisk ekonomi från 1960-talet fram till början av 2000-talet dokumenterar den föreliggande studien på vilket sätt språket hos textproducenter inom utvecklingsekonomi konstituerar och är beroende av dessa skribenters inställning till utvecklingsfrågor och till kvinnor och män. Analysen fokuserar på hur aktiverings- och passiveringsprocesser används i representationen av de två huvuddeltagarna, kvinnor och män, hur begreppet genus introduceras och hur utvecklingsfrågor förändras genom ansatser, över tid och mellan genrer. Den teoretiska ramen sträcker sig över olika discipliner: systemisk funktionell grammatik och kritisk diskursanalys, men även organisatorisk diskursanalys och utvecklingsstudier. Texterna som valts för analysen härstammar från tre olika källor: planer från världskvinnokonferenserna organiserade av Förenta Nationerna, resolutioner om kvinnor och utveckling antagna av Förenta Nationernas generalförsamling samt handlingsplaner för kvinnor och utveckling författade av Förenta Nationernas livsmedels- och jordbruksorganisation FAO. Den lingvistiska analysmetoden bygger på det system av roller och sätt att representera deltagare som utvecklats av Halliday och Van Leeuwen. För varje årtionde och varje genre granskar studien förändringarna i processtyper och deltagarroller, samt förändringen av fokus på kvinnorelaterade frågor och konceptualiseringen av genus. Den kvantitativa analysen kompletteras och förstärks av en detaljerad analys av textfragment från olika tidpunkter och ansatser. Studiens resultat är av grammatisk och lexikal natur och de är relaterade till genus, genre och tid. Studien visar att aktiveringsprocesserna är betydligt talrikare än passiveringsprocesserna i representationen av kvinnor. En bättre förståelse av deltagarrepresentation uppnås dock via en omgruppering av de grammatiska processerna i identifierande, aktiverande och riktade processer. Skiftet från fokus på kvinnor till fokus på genus är inte så mycket en förändring av processerna som representerar deltagarna, utan mer en förändring av retoriken i ansatserna och deras fokus: från integration av kvinnor till kvinnors empowerment, från kvinnors situation till genusrelationer, från brådskande tillägg till social konflikt och samarbete.

Dialogue in the crisis of representation : realism and antirealism in the context of the conversation between theologians and quantum physicists in Göttingen 1949-1961

The aim of this study is to analyse the content of the interdisciplinary conversations in Göttingen between 1949 and 1961. The task is to compare models for describing reality presented by quantum physicists and theologians. Descriptions of reality indifferent disciplines are conditioned by the development of the concept of reality in philosophy, physics and theology. Our basic problem is stated in the question: How is it possible for the intramental image to match the external object?Cartesian knowledge presupposes clear and distinct ideas in the mind prior to observation resulting in a true correspondence between the observed object and the cogitative observing subject. The Kantian synthesis between rationalism and empiricism emphasises an extended character of representation. The human mind is not a passive receiver of external information, but is actively construing intramental representations of external reality in the epistemological process. Heidegger's aim was to reach a more primordial mode of understanding reality than what is possible in the Cartesian Subject-Object distinction. In Heidegger's philosophy, ontology as being-in-the-world is prior to knowledge concerning being. Ontology can be grasped only in the totality of being (Dasein), not only as an object of reflection and perception. According to Bohr, quantum mechanics introduces an irreducible loss in representation, which classically understood is a deficiency in knowledge. The conflicting aspects (particle and wave pictures) in our comprehension of physical reality, cannot be completely accommodated into an entire and coherent model of reality. What Bohr rejects is not realism, but the classical Einsteinian version of it. By the use of complementary descriptions, Bohr tries to save a fundamentally realistic position. The fundamental question in Barthian theology is the problem of God as an object of theological discourse. Dialectics is Barth¿s way to express knowledge of God avoiding a speculative theology and a human-centred religious self-consciousness. In Barthian theology, the human capacity for knowledge, independently of revelation, is insufficient to comprehend the being of God. Our knowledge of God is real knowledge in revelation and our words are made to correspond with the divine reality in an analogy of faith. The point of the Bultmannian demythologising programme was to claim the real existence of God beyond our faculties. We cannot simply define God as a human ideal of existence or a focus of values. The theological programme of Bultmann emphasised the notion that we can talk meaningfully of God only insofar as we have existential experience of his intervention. Common to all these twentieth century philosophical, physical and theological positions, is a form of anti-Cartesianism. Consequently, in regard to their epistemology, they can be labelled antirealist. This common insight also made it possible to find a common meeting point between the different disciplines. In this study, the different standpoints from all three areas and the conversations in Göttingen are analysed in the frameworkof realism/antirealism. One of the first tasks in the Göttingen conversations was to analyse the nature of the likeness between the complementary structures inquantum physics introduced by Niels Bohr and the dialectical forms in the Barthian doctrine of God. The reaction against epistemological Cartesianism, metaphysics of substance and deterministic description of reality was the common point of departure for theologians and physicists in the Göttingen discussions. In his complementarity, Bohr anticipated the crossing of traditional epistemic boundaries and the generalisation of epistemological strategies by introducing interpretative procedures across various disciplines.

Models, truth and realism: assessing Bas van Fraassen's views on scientific representation

This paper is devoted to an analysis of some aspects of Bas van Fraassen's views on representation. While I agree with most of his claims, I disagree on the following three issues. Firstly, I contend that some isomorphism (or at least homomorphism) between the representor and what is represented is a universal necessary condition for the success of any representation, even in the case of misrepresentation. Secondly, I argue that the so-called "semantic" or "model-theoretic" construal of theories does not give proper due to the role played by true propositions in successful representing practices. Thirdly, I attempt to show that the force of van Fraassen's pragmatic - and antirealist - "dissolution" of the "loss of reality objection" loses its bite when we realize that our cognitive contact with real phenomena is achieved not by representing but by expressing true propositions about them.

Of pearls and pigs : a conceptual-semantic Tiernet approach to formal representation of structure and variation of phraseological units

"Helmiä sioille", pärlor för svin, säger man på finska om någonting bra och fint som tas emot av en mottagare som inte vill eller har ingen förmåga att förstå, uppskatta eller utnyttja hela den potential som finns hos det mottagna föremålet, är ointresserad av den eller gillar den inte. För sådana relativt stabila flerordiga uttryck, som är lagrade i språkbrukarnas minnen och som demonstrerar olika slags oregelbundna drag i sin struktur använder man inom lingvistiken bl.a. termerna "idiom" eller "fraseologiska enheter". Som en oregelbundenhet kan man t.ex. beskriva det faktum att betydelsen hos uttrycket inte är densamma som man skulle komma till ifall man betraktade det som en vanlig regelbunden fras. En annan oregelbundenhet, som idiomforskare har observerat, ligger i den begränsade förmågan att varieras i form och betydelse, som många idiom har jämfört med regelbundna fraser. Därför talas det ofta om "grundform" och "grundbetydelse" hos idiom och variationen avses som avvikelse från dessa. Men när man tittar på ett stort antal förekomstexempel av idiom i språkbruk, märker man att många av dem tillåter variation, t.o.m. i sådan utsträckning att gränserna mellan en variant och en "grundform" suddas ut, och istället för ett idiom råkar vi plötsligt på en "familj" av flera besläktade uttryck. Allt detta väcker frågan om hur dessa uttryck egentligen ska vara representerade i språket. I avhandlingen utförs en kritisk granskning av olika tidigare tillvägagångssätt att beskriva fraseologiska enheter i syfte att klargöra vilka svårigheter deras struktur och variation erbjuder för den lingvistiska teorin. Samtidigt presenteras ett alternativt sätt att beskriva dessa uttryck. En systematisk och formell modell som utvecklas i denna avhandling integrerar en beskrivning av idiom på många olika språkliga nivåer och skildrar deras variation i form av ett nätverk och som ett resultat av samspel mellan idiomets struktur och kontexter där det förekommer, samt av interaktion med andra fasta uttryck. Modellen bygger på en fördjupande, språkbrukbaserad analys av det finska idiomet "X HEITTÄÄ HELMIÄ SIOILLE" (X kastar pärlor för svin).

A Well Stated Time Domain Integral Representation for Elastodynamic Analysis and Applications

This article discusses three possible ways to derive time domain boundary integral representations for elastodynamics. This discussion points out possible difficulties found when using those formulations to deal with practical applications. The discussion points out recommendations to select the convenient integral representation to deal with elastodynamic problems and opens the possibility of deriving simplified schemes. The proper way to take into account initial conditions applied to the body is an interesting topict shown. It illustrates the main differences between the discussed boundary integral representation expressions, their singularities and possible numerical problems. The correct way to use collocation points outside the analyzed domain is carefully described. Some applications are shown at the end of the paper, in order to demonstrate the capabilities of the technique when properly used.