Emerging water treatment technologies for decentralised systems : an overview of selected systems suited for application in towns and settlements in remote and very remote regions of Australia and vulnerable and lagging rural regions in Sri Lanka

The primary purpose of this paper is to overview a selection of advanced water treatment technology systems that are suited for application in towns and settlements in remote and very remote regions of Australia and vulnerable and lagging rural regions in Sri Lanka. This recognises that sanitation and water treatment are inextricably linked and both are needed to reduce risks to environment and population health from contaminated water sources. For both Australia and Sri Lanka only a small fraction of the settlements in rural and remote regions are connected to water treatment facilities and town water supplies. In Australia’s remote/very remote regions raw water is drawn from underground sources and rainwater capture. Most settlements in rural Sri Lanka rely on rivers, reservoirs, wells, springs or carted water. Furthermore, Sri Lanka has more than 25,000 hand pumped tube wells which saved the communities during recent droughts. Decentralised water supply systems offer the opportunity to provide safe drinking water to these remote/very remote and rural regions where centralised systems are not feasible due to socio-cultural, economic, political, technological reasons. These systems reduce health risks from contaminated water supplies. In remote areas centralized systems fail due to low population density and less affordability. Globally, a new generation of advanced water treatment technologies are positioned to make a major impact on the provision of safe potable water in remote/very remote regions in Australia and rural regions in Sri Lanka. Some of these systems were developed for higher income countries. However, with careful selection and further research they can be tailored to match local socio-economic conditions and technical capacity. As such, they can equally be used to provide decentralised water supply in communities in developed and developing countries such as Australia and Sri Lanka.

Quantifying uncertainty in parameter estimates for stochastic models of collective cell spreading using approximate Bayesian computation

Wound healing and tumour growth involve collective cell spreading, which is driven by individual motility and proliferation events within a population of cells. Mathematical models are often used to interpret experimental data and to estimate the parameters so that predictions can be made. Existing methods for parameter estimation typically assume that these parameters are constants and often ignore any uncertainty in the estimated values. We use approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to estimate the cell diffusivity, D, and the cell proliferation rate, λ, from a discrete model of collective cell spreading, and we quantify the uncertainty associated with these estimates using Bayesian inference. We use a detailed experimental data set describing the collective cell spreading of 3T3 fibroblast cells. The ABC analysis is conducted for different combinations of initial cell densities and experimental times in two separate scenarios: (i) where collective cell spreading is driven by cell motility alone, and (ii) where collective cell spreading is driven by combined cell motility and cell proliferation. We find that D can be estimated precisely, with a small coefficient of variation (CV) of 2–6%. Our results indicate that D appears to depend on the experimental time, which is a feature that has been previously overlooked. Assuming that the values of D are the same in both experimental scenarios, we use the information about D from the first experimental scenario to obtain reasonably precise estimates of λ, with a CV between 4 and 12%. Our estimates of D and λ are consistent with previously reported values; however, our method is based on a straightforward measurement of the position of the leading edge whereas previous approaches have involved expensive cell counting techniques. Additional insights gained using a fully Bayesian approach justify the computational cost, especially since it allows us to accommodate information from different experiments in a principled way.

Prediction of GMA welding characteristic parameter by artificial neural network system

Nowadays, demand for automated Gas metal arc welding (GMAW) is growing and consequently need for intelligent systems is increased to ensure the accuracy of the procedure. To date, welding pool geometry has been the most used factor in quality assessment of intelligent welding systems. But, it has recently been found that Mahalanobis Distance (MD) not only can be used for this purpose but also is more efficient. In the present paper, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) has been used for prediction of MD parameter. However, advantages and disadvantages of other methods have been discussed. The Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm was found to be the most effective algorithm for GMAW process. It is known that the number of neurons plays an important role in optimal network design. In this work, using trial and error method, it has been found that 30 is the optimal number of neurons. The model has been investigated with different number of layers in Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) architecture and has been shown that for the aim of this work the optimal result is obtained when using MLP with one layer. Robustness of the system has been evaluated by adding noise into the input data and studying the effect of the noise in prediction capability of the network. The experiments for this study were conducted in an automated GMAW setup that was integrated with data acquisition system and prepared in a laboratory for welding of steel plate with 12 mm in thickness. The accuracy of the network was evaluated by Root Mean Squared (RMS) error between the measured and the estimated values. The low error value (about 0.008) reflects the good accuracy of the model. Also the comparison of the predicted results by ANN and the test data set showed very good agreement that reveals the predictive power of the model. Therefore, the ANN model offered in here for GMA welding process can be used effectively for prediction goals.

Towards strongly consistent online HMM parameter estimation using one-step Kerridge inaccuracy

In this paper, we propose a novel online hidden Markov model (HMM) parameter estimator based on the new information-theoretic concept of one-step Kerridge inaccuracy (OKI). Under several regulatory conditions, we establish a convergence result (and some limited strong consistency results) for our proposed online OKI-based parameter estimator. In simulation studies, we illustrate the global convergence behaviour of our proposed estimator and provide a counter-example illustrating the local convergence of other popular HMM parameter estimators.

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

Can social resilience inform SA/SIA for adaptive planning for climate change in vulnerable regions?

This book represents a landmark effort to probe and analyze the theory and empirics of designing water disaster management policies. It consists of seven chapters that examine, in-depth and comprehensively, issues that are central to crafting effective policies for water disaster management. The authors use historical surveys, institutional analysis, econometric investigations, empirical case studies, and conceptual-theoretical discussions to clarify and illuminate the complex policy process. The specific topics studied in this book include a review and analysis of key policy areas and research priority areas associated with water disaster management, community participation in disaster risk reduction, the economics and politics of ‘green’ flood control, probabilistic flood forecasting for flood risk management, polycentric governance and flood risk management, drought management with the aid of dynamic inter-generational preferences, and how social resilience can inform SA/SIA for adaptive planning for climate change in vulnerable areas. A unique feature of this book is its analysis of the causes and consequences of water disasters and efforts to address them successfully through policy-rich, cross-disciplinary and transnational papers. This book is designed to help enrich the sparse discourse on water disaster management policies and galvanize water professionals to craft creative solutions to tackle water disasters efficiently, equitably, and sustainably. This book should also be of considerable use to disaster management professionals, in general, and natural resource policy analysts.

Someone else's boom but always our bust: Australia as a derivative economy, implications for regions

This paper examines the socio-economic impact of mineral and agricultural resource extraction on local communities and explores policy options for addressing them. An emphasis on the marketisation of services together with tight fiscal control has reinforced decline in many country communities in Australia and elsewhere. However, the introduction by the European Union of Regional Policy which emphasises ‘smart specialisation’ can enhance greatly the capacity of local people to generate decent livelihoods. For this to have real effect, the innovative state has to enable partnerships between communities, researchers and industry. For countries like Australia, this would be a substantive policy shift.

Cerebral regions associated with verbal response initiation, suppression and strategy use

Cerebral activation associated with performance on a novel task involving two conditions was investigated with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). In the response initiation condition, subjects nominated the general superordinate category to which each of a series of exemplars (concrete nouns) belonged. In the response suppression condition, subjects were required to nominate a general superordinate category to which each exemplar did not belong, with the instruction that they were not to nominate the same category response twice in a row. Both conditions produced distinct patterns of activation relative to an articulation control condition employing identical stimuli. When initiation and suppression conditions were directly compared, response suppression produced activation in the right frontal pole, orbital frontal cortex and anterior cingulate, left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and posterior cingulate, and bilaterally in the precuneus, visual association cortex and cerebellum. Response latencies were significantly longer in the suppression condition. Two broadly-defined strategies associated with the correct production of words during the suppression condition were a self-ordered selection from among the superordinate categories identified during the first section of the task and the generation of novel category responses. The neuroanatomical correlates of response initiation, suppression and strategy use are discussed, as are the respective roles of response suppression and strategy generation.

Genetic architecture of subcortical brain regions: Common and region-specific genetic contributions

Understanding the aetiology of patterns of variation within and covariation across brain regions is key to advancing our understanding of the functional, anatomical and developmental networks of the brain. Here we applied multivariate twin modelling and principal component analysis (PCA) to investigate the genetic architecture of the size of seven subcortical regions (caudate nucleus, thalamus, putamen, pallidum, hippocampus, amygdala and nucleus accumbens) in a genetically informative sample of adolescents and young adults (N=1038; mean age=21.6±3.2years; including 148 monozygotic and 202 dizygotic twin pairs) from the Queensland Twin IMaging (QTIM) study. Our multivariate twin modelling identified a common genetic factor that accounts for all the heritability of intracranial volume (0.88) and a substantial proportion of the heritability of all subcortical structures, particularly those of the thalamus (0.71 out of 0.88), pallidum (0.52 out of 0.75) and putamen (0.43 out of 0.89). In addition, we also found substantial region-specific genetic contributions to the heritability of the hippocampus (0.39 out of 0.79), caudate nucleus (0.46 out of 0.78), amygdala (0.25 out of 0.45) and nucleus accumbens (0.28 out of 0.52). This provides further insight into the extent and organization of subcortical genetic architecture, which includes developmental and general growth pathways, as well as the functional specialization and maturation trajectories that influence each subcortical region. This multivariate twin study identifies a common genetic factor that accounts for all the heritability of intracranial volume (0.88) and a substantial proportion of the heritability of all subcortical structures, particularly those of the thalamus (0.71 out of 0.88), pallidum (0.52 out of 0.75) and putamen (0.43 out of 0.89). In parallel, it also describes substantial region-specific genetic contributions to the heritability of the hippocampus (0.39 out of 0.79), caudate nucleus (0.46 out of 0.78), amygdala (0.25 out of 0.45) and nucleus accumbens (0.28 out of 0.52).

Developments of the total entropy utility function for the dual purpose of model discrimination and parameter estimation in Bayesian design

The total entropy utility function is considered for the dual purpose of Bayesian design for model discrimination and parameter estimation. A sequential design setting is proposed where it is shown how to efficiently estimate the total entropy utility for a wide variety of data types. Utility estimation relies on forming particle approximations to a number of intractable integrals which is afforded by the use of the sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for Bayesian inference. A number of motivating examples are considered for demonstrating the performance of total entropy in comparison to utilities for model discrimination and parameter estimation. The results suggest that the total entropy utility selects designs which are efficient under both experimental goals with little compromise in achieving either goal. As such, the total entropy utility is advocated as a general utility for Bayesian design in the presence of model uncertainty.

Populations of models, experimental designs and coverage of parameter space by Latin Hypercube and Orthogonal Sampling

In this paper we have used simulations to make a conjecture about the coverage of a t-dimensional subspace of a d-dimensional parameter space of size n when performing k trials of Latin Hypercube sampling. This takes the form P(k,n,d,t) = 1 - e^(-k/n^(t-1)). We suggest that this coverage formula is independent of d and this allows us to make connections between building Populations of Models and Experimental Designs. We also show that Orthogonal sampling is superior to Latin Hypercube sampling in terms of allowing a more uniform coverage of the t-dimensional subspace at the sub-block size level. These ideas have particular relevance when attempting to perform uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analyses.

Total transcriptome, proteome, and allergome of Johnson grass pollen, which is important for allergic rhinitis in subtropical regions

Background Genomic data are lacking for many allergen sources. To circumvent this limitation, we implemented a strategy to reveal the repertoire of pollen allergens of a grass with clinical importance in subtropical regions, where an increasing proportion of the world's population resides. Objective We sought to identify and immunologically characterize the allergenic components of the Panicoideae Johnson grass pollen (JGP; Sorghum halepense). Methods The total pollen transcriptome, proteome, and allergome of JGP were documented. Serum IgE reactivities with pollen and purified allergens were assessed in 64 patients with grass pollen allergy from a subtropical region. Results Purified Sor h 1 and Sor h 13 were identified as clinically important allergen components of JGP with serum IgE reactivity in 49 (76%) and 28 (43.8%), respectively, of patients with grass pollen allergy. Within whole JGP, multiple cDNA transcripts and peptide spectra belonging to grass pollen allergen families 1, 2, 4, 7, 11, 12, 13, and 25 were identified. Pollen allergens restricted to subtropical grasses (groups 22-24) were also present within the JGP transcriptome and proteome. Mass spectrometry confirmed the IgE-reactive components of JGP included isoforms of Sor h 1, Sor h 2, Sor h 13, and Sor h 23. Conclusion Our integrated molecular approach revealed qualitative differences between the allergenic components of JGP and temperate grass pollens. Knowledge of these newly identified allergens has the potential to improve specific diagnosis and allergen immunotherapy treatment for patients with grass pollen allergy in subtropical regions and reduce the burden of allergic respiratory disease globally.

Does size matter? Knowledge-based development of second-order city-regions in Finland

Achieving knowledge-based urban development (KBUD) profoundly depends on not only encouraging the development of economic activities, but also strengthening the societal, environmental and governance bases of city-regions. In recent years, a number of global city-regions have been investigated from the angle of this multidimensional perspective, which has provided a new comprehension in the development processes of primate city-regions. However, there is a knowledge gap in understanding how KBUD works in the second-order city-region (SOCR) context. This warrants more attention as SOCRs potentially help secure balanced development and territorial cohesion. This paper aims to empirically investigate KBUD performances of SOCRs in order to generate new insights. An assessment framework is utilised in the Finnish context, where the findings provide a nationally benchmarked snapshot of the degree of achievements of SOCRs based on numerous KBUD performance areas. The results shed light on the unique Finnish urban and regional development process, and provide lessons for other SOCRs.

Online hidden Markov model parameter estimation and minimax robust quickest change detection in uncertain stochastic processes

Stochastic (or random) processes are inherent to numerous fields of human endeavour including engineering, science, and business and finance. This thesis presents multiple novel methods for quickly detecting and estimating uncertainties in several important classes of stochastic processes. The significance of these novel methods is demonstrated by employing them to detect aircraft manoeuvres in video signals in the important application of autonomous mid-air collision avoidance.

Estimates on the coverage of parameter space using populations of models

In this paper we provide estimates for the coverage of parameter space when using Latin Hypercube Sampling, which forms the basis of building so-called populations of models. The estimates are obtained using combinatorial counting arguments to determine how many trials, k, are needed in order to obtain specified parameter space coverage for a given value of the discretisation size n. In the case of two dimensions, we show that if the ratio (Ø) of trials to discretisation size is greater than 1, then as n becomes moderately large the fractional coverage behaves as 1-exp-ø. We compare these estimates with simulation results obtained from an implementation of Latin Hypercube Sampling using MATLAB.