Engendering Group Support Based Foresight for Capital Intensive Manufacturing Industries - Case Paper and Steel Industry Scenarios by 2018

In recent times of global turmoil, the need for uncertainty management has become ever momentous. The need for enhanced foresight especially concerns capital-intensive industries, which need to commit their resources and assets with long-term planning horizons. Scenario planning has been acknowledged to have many virtues - and limitations - concerning the mapping of the future and illustrating the alternative development paths. The present study has been initiated to address both the need of improved foresight in two capital-intensive industries, i.e. the paper and steel industries and the imperfections in the current scenario practice. The research problem has been approached by engendering a problem-solving vehicle, which combines, e.g. elements of generic scenario process, face-to-face group support methods, deductive scenario reasoning and causal mapping into a fully integrated scenario process. The process, called the SAGES scenario framework, has been empirically tested by creating alternative futures for two capital-intensive industries, i.e. the paper and steel industries. Three scenarios for each industry have been engendered together with the identification of the key megatrends, the most important foreign investment determinants, key future drivers and leading indicators for the materialisation of the scenarios. The empirical results revealed a two-fold outlook for the paper industry, while the steel industry future was seen as much more positive. The research found support for utilising group support systems in scenario and strategic planning context with some limitations. Key perceived benefits include high time-efficiency, productivity and lower resource-intensiveness. Group support also seems to enhance participant satisfaction, encourage innovative thinking and provide the users with personalised qualitative scenarios.

Characterisation of Laser Beam and Paper Material Interaction

It is known already from 1970´s that laser beam is suitable for processing paper materials. In this thesis, term paper materials mean all wood-fibre based materials, like dried pulp, copy paper, newspaper, cardboard, corrugated board, tissue paper etc. Accordingly, laser processing in this thesis means all laser treatments resulting material removal, like cutting, partial cutting, marking, creasing, perforation etc. that can be used to process paper materials. Laser technology provides many advantages for processing of paper materials: non-contact method, freedom of processing geometry, reliable technology for non-stop production etc. Especially packaging industry is very promising area for laser processing applications. However, there are only few industrial laser processing applications worldwide even in beginning of 2010´s. One reason for small-scale use of lasers in paper material manufacturing is that there is a shortage of published research and scientific articles. Another problem, restraining the use of laser for processing of paper materials, is colouration of paper material i.e. the yellowish and/or greyish colour of cut edge appearing during cutting or after cutting. These are the main reasons for selecting the topic of this thesis to concern characterization of interaction of laser beam and paper materials. This study was carried out in Laboratory of Laser Processing at Lappeenranta University of Technology (Finland). Laser equipment used in this study was TRUMPF TLF 2700 carbon dioxide laser that produces a beam with wavelength of 10.6 μm with power range of 190-2500 W (laser power on work piece). Study of laser beam and paper material interaction was carried out by treating dried kraft pulp (grammage of 67 g m-2) with different laser power levels, focal plane postion settings and interaction times. Interaction between laser beam and dried kraft pulp was detected with different monitoring devices, i.e. spectrometer, pyrometer and active illumination imaging system. This way it was possible to create an input and output parameter diagram and to study the effects of input and output parameters in this thesis. When interaction phenomena are understood also process development can be carried out and even new innovations developed. Fulfilling the lack of information on interaction phenomena can assist in the way of lasers for wider use of technology in paper making and converting industry. It was concluded in this thesis that interaction of laser beam and paper material has two mechanisms that are dependent on focal plane position range. Assumed interaction mechanism B appears in range of average focal plane position of 3.4 mm and 2.4 mm and assumed interaction mechanism A in range of average focal plane position of 0.4 mm and -0.6 mm both in used experimental set up. Focal plane position 1.4 mm represents midzone of these two mechanisms. Holes during laser beam and paper material interaction are formed gradually: first small hole is formed to interaction area in the centre of laser beam cross-section and after that, as function of interaction time, hole expands, until interaction between laser beam and dried kraft pulp is ended. By the image analysis it can be seen that in beginning of laser beam and dried kraft pulp material interaction small holes off very good quality are formed. It is obvious that black colour and heat affected zone appear as function of interaction time. This reveals that there still are different interaction phases within interaction mechanisms A and B. These interaction phases appear as function of time and also as function of peak intensity of laser beam. Limit peak intensity is the value that divides interaction mechanism A and B from one-phase interaction into dual-phase interaction. So all peak intensity values under limit peak intensity belong to MAOM (interaction mechanism A one-phase mode) or to MBOM (interaction mechanism B onephase mode) and values over that belong to MADM (interaction mechanism A dual-phase mode) or to MBDM (interaction mechanism B dual-phase mode). Decomposition process of cellulose is evolution of hydrocarbons when temperature is between 380- 500°C. This means that long cellulose molecule is split into smaller volatile hydrocarbons in this temperature range. As temperature increases, decomposition process of cellulose molecule changes. In range of 700-900°C, cellulose molecule is mainly decomposed into H2 gas; this is why this range is called evolution of hydrogen. Interaction in this range starts (as in range of MAOM and MBOM), when a small good quality hole is formed. This is due to “direct evaporation” of pulp via decomposition process of evolution of hydrogen. And this can be seen can be seen in spectrometer as high intensity peak of yellow light (in range of 588-589 nm) which refers to temperature of ~1750ºC. Pyrometer does not detect this high intensity peak since it is not able to detect physical phase change from solid kraft pulp to gaseous compounds. As interaction time between laser beam and dried kraft pulp continues, hypothesis is that three auto ignition processes occurs. Auto ignition of substance is the lowest temperature in which it will spontaneously ignite in a normal atmosphere without an external source of ignition, such as a flame or spark. Three auto ignition processes appears in range of MADM and MBDM, namely: 1. temperature of auto ignition of hydrogen atom (H2) is 500ºC, 2. temperature of auto ignition of carbon monoxide molecule (CO) is 609ºC and 3. temperature of auto ignition of carbon atom (C) is 700ºC. These three auto ignition processes leads to formation of plasma plume which has strong emission of radiation in range of visible light. Formation of this plasma plume can be seen as increase of intensity in wavelength range of ~475-652 nm. Pyrometer shows maximum temperature just after this ignition. This plasma plume is assumed to scatter laser beam so that it interacts with larger area of dried kraft pulp than what is actual area of beam cross-section. This assumed scattering reduces also peak intensity. So result shows that assumably scattered light with low peak intensity is interacting with large area of hole edges and due to low peak intensity this interaction happens in low temperature. So interaction between laser beam and dried kraft pulp turns from evolution of hydrogen to evolution of hydrocarbons. This leads to black colour of hole edges.

Value added logistics in supply and demand chain : COSTFIX : New operation model for maintenance material logistics in paper industry

This research report illustrates and examines new operation models for decreasing fixed costs and transforming them into variable costs in the field of paper industry. The report illustrates two cases – a new operation model for material logistics in maintenance and an examination of forklift truck fleet outsourcing solutions. Conventional material logistics in maintenance operation is illustrated and some problems related to conventional operation are identified. A new operation model that solves some of these problems is presented including descriptions of procurement and service contracts and sources of added value. Forklift truck fleet outsourcing solutions are examined by illustrating the responsibilities of a host company and a service provider both before and after outsourcing. The customer buys outsourcing services in order to improve its investment productivity. The mechanism of how these services affect the customer company’s investment productivity is illustrated.

The value of a saved tree : The lifecycle of CO2-emissions associated with the combination of printing paper and electricity production of wood in the U.S. and Sweden

The pulp- and paper production is a very energy intensive industry sector. Both Sweden and the U.S. are major pulpandpaper producers. This report examines the energy and the CO2-emission connected with the pulp- and paperindustry for the two countries from a lifecycle perspective.New technologies make it possible to increase the electricity production in the integrated pulp- andpaper mill through black liquor gasification and a combined cycle (BLGCC). That way, the mill canproduce excess electricity, which can be sold and replace electricity produced in power plants. In thisprocess the by-products that are formed at the pulp-making process is used as fuel to produce electricity.In pulp- and paper mills today the technology for generating energy from the by-product in aTomlinson boiler is not as efficient as it could be compared to the BLGCC technology. Scenarios havebeen designed to investigate the results from using the BLGCC technique using a life cycle analysis.Two scenarios are being represented by a 1994 mill in the U.S. and a 1994 mill in Sweden.The scenariosare based on the average energy intensity of pulp- and paper mills as operating in 1994 in the U.S.and Sweden respectively. The two other scenarios are constituted by a »reference mill« in the U.S. andSweden using state-of-the-art technology. We investigate the impact of varying recycling rates and totalenergy use and CO2-emissions from the production of printing and writing paper. To economize withthe wood and that way save trees, we can use the trees that are replaced by recycling in a biomassgasification combined cycle (BIGCC) to produce electricity in a power station. This produces extra electricitywith a lower CO2 intensity than electricity generated by, for example, coal-fired power plants.The lifecycle analysis in this thesis also includes the use of waste treatment in the paper lifecycle. Both Sweden and theU.S. are countries that recycle paper. Still there is a lot of paper waste, this paper is a part of the countries municipalsolid waste (MSW). A lot of the MSW is landfilled, but parts of it are incinerated to extract electricity. The thesis hasdesigned special scenarios for the use of MSW in the lifecycle analysis.This report is studying and comparing two different countries and two different efficiencies on theBLGCC in four different scenarios. This gives a wide survey and points to essential parameters to specificallyreflect on, when making assumptions in a lifecycle analysis. The report shows that there arethree key parameters that have to be carefully considered when making a lifecycle analysis of wood inan energy and CO2-emission perspective in the pulp- and paper mill in the U.S. and in Sweden. First,there is the energy efficiency in the pulp- and paper mill, then the efficiency of the BLGCC and last theCO2 intensity of the electricity displaced by BIGCC or BLGCC generatedelectricity. It also show that with the current technology that we havetoday, it is possible to produce CO2 free paper with a waste paper amountup to 30%. The thesis discusses the system boundaries and the assumptions.Further and more detailed research, including amongst others thesystem boundaries and forestry, is recommended for more specificanswers.

In the matter of: public hearing before Special Industry Committee no. 41-C for the paper, paper products, printing, and publishing industry in Puerto Rico. 17, 18, and 19 September, 1958 ... San Juan, Puerto Rico. Reporters: John F. Hrozencik [and] Genevieve Biolsi.

Maynard E. Pirsig, chairman.

In the matter of: Public hearing before Special industry committee no. 32-C for the paper, paper products, printing and publishing industry in Puerto Rico. August 29-30, 1957. Reporters: James A. Brownlee and John F. Hrozencik.

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