Fenómeno del Niño historia y perspectivas

Ecuador se ubica en zona de riesgo para la llegada del Fenómeno del Niño, por lo que es necesario estar informados sobre este tema y diferenciar que es la Corriente del Niño (corriente cálida del Pacífico Sudamericano) y el Niño-Oscilación del Sur (patrón climático en el que se producen oscilaciones de la temperatura en dos fases: el Fenómeno del Niño y La Niña). En los años 1997-1998 este fenómeno afectó el 60% del total de la población, con un impacto muy alto en la salud de la ciudadanía, así como en la propiedad pública privada y en diversos ecosistemas. Ante la amenaza en el periodo 2015-2016, la Secretaría de Gestión de Riesgos (SGR) planificó tres etapas de acción: Preparación, Respuesta y Rehabilitación. Luego de la revisión los autores recomiendan entre otras cosas: brindar información oportuna sobre los cambios meteorológicos, informar sobre los planes de contingencia, garantizar la seguridad alimentaria y el acceso al agua; y fortalecer la atención integral que proveen los Servicios de Salud

Climate variability of the last 1000 years in the NW Pacific: high resolution, multi-biomarker records from Lake Toyoni

The East Asian Monsoon (EAM) is an active component of the global climate system and has a profound social and economic impact in East Asia and its surrounding countries. Its impact on regional hydrological processes may influence society through industrial water supplies, food productivity and energy use. In order to predict future rates of climate change, reliable and accurate reconstructions of regional temperature and rainfall are required from all over the world to test climate models and better predict future climate variability. Hokkaido is a region which has limited palaeo-climate data and is sensitive to climate change. Instrumental data show that the climate in Hokkaido is influenced by the East Asian Monsoon (EAM), however, instrumental data is limited to the past ~150 years. Therefore down-core climate reconstructions, prior to instrumental records, are required to provide a better understanding of the long-term behaviour of the climate drivers (e.g. the EAM, Westerlies, and teleconnections) in this region. The present study develops multi-proxy reconstructions to determine past climatic and hydrologic variability in Japan over the past 1000 years and aid in understanding the effects of the EAM and the Westerlies independently and interactively. A 250-cm long sediment core from Lake Toyoni, Hokkaido was retrieved to investigate terrestrial and aquatic input, lake temperature and hydrological changes over the past 1000-years within Lake Toyoni and its catchment using X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) data, alkenone palaeothermometry, the molecular and hydrogen isotopic composition of higher plant waxes (δD(HPW)). Here, we conducted the first survey for alkenone biomarkers in eight lakes in the Hokkaido, Japan. We detected the occurrence of alkenones within the sediments of Lake Toyoni. We present the first lacustrine alkenone record from Japan, including genetic analysis of the alkenone producer. C37 alkenone concentrations in surface sediments are 18µg C37 g−1 of dry sediment and the dominant alkenone is C37:4. 18S rDNA analysis revealed the presence of a single alkenone producer in Lake Toyoni and thus a single calibration is used for reconstructing lake temperature based on alkenone unsaturation patterns. Temperature reconstructions over the past 1000 years suggest that lake water temperatures varies between 8 and 19°C which is in line with water temperature changes observed in the modern Lake Toyoni. The alkenone-based temperature reconstruction provides evidence for the variability of the EAM over the past 1000 years. The δD(HPW) suggest that the large fluctuations (∼40‰) represent changes in temperature and source precipitation in this region, which is ultimately controlled by the EAM system and therefore a proxy for the EAM system. In order to complement the biomarker reconstructions, the XRF data strengthen the lake temperature and hydrological reconstructions by providing information on past productivity, which is controlled by the East Asian Summer monsoon (EASM) and wind input into Lake Toyoni, which is controlled by the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) and the Westerlies. By combining the data generated from XRF, alkenone palaeothermometry and the δD(HPW) reconstructions, we provide valuable information on the EAM and the Westerlies, including; the timing of intensification and weakening, the teleconnections influencing them and the relationship between them. During the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), we find that the EASM dominated and the EAWM was suppressed, whereas, during the Little Ice Age (LIA), the influence of the EAWM dominated with time periods of increased EASM and Westerlies intensification. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly influenced the EAM; a strong EASM occurred during El Niño conditions and a strong EAWM occurred during La Niña. The North Atlantic Oscillation, on the other hand, was a key driver of the Westerlies intensification; strengthening of the Westerlies during a positive NAO phase and weakening of the Westerlies during a negative NAO phase. A key finding from this study is that our data support an anti-phase relationship between the EASM and the EAWM (e.g. the intensification of the EASM and weakening of the EAWM and vice versa) and that the EAWM and the Westerlies vary independently from each other, rather than coincide as previously suggested in other studies.

The effect of ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) on Ashes series results in Australia

An analysis of the results of those "Ashes" cricket test matches between England and Australia which are played in Australia suggests a correlation between these results and the El-Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. In those years with a positive ENSO, results favour Australia, whereas in those years with a negative ENSO, results are more even. A potential mechanism is presented for this apparent correlation.

The Effects of Joint ENSO-Antarctic Oscillation Forcing on the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica

Stable oxygen analyses and snow accumulation rates from snow pits sampled in the McMurdo Dry Valleys have been used to reconstruct variations in summer temperature and moisture availability over the last four decades. The temperature data show a common interannual variability, with strong regional warmings occurring especially in 1984/85, 1995/96 and 1990/91 and profound coolings during 1977/78, 1983/84, 1988/89, 1993/94, and 1996/97. Annual snow accumulation shows a larger variance between sites, but the early 1970s, 1984, 1997, and to a lesser degree 1990/91 are characterized overall by wetter conditions, while the early and late 1980s show low snow accumulation values. Comparison of the reconstructed and measured summer temperatures with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) yield statistically significant correlations, which improve when phaserelationships are considered. A distinct change in the phase relationship of the correlation is observed, with the SOI-AAO leading over the temperature records by one year before, and lagging by one year after 1988. These results suggest that over the last two decades summer temperatures are influenced by opposing El Niho Southern Oscillation and AAO forcings and support previous studies that identified a change in the Tropical-Antarctic teleconnection between the 1980s and 1990s.

Simulation of ENSO-Related Surface Winds in the Tropical Pacific by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model Forced by Observed Sea Surface Temperatures

The authors present the simulation of the tropical Pacific surface wind variability by a low-resolution (R15 horizontal resolution and 18 vertical levels) version of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Interactions, Maryland, general circulation model (GCM) when forced by observed global sea surface temperature. The authors have examined the monthly mean surface winds acid precipitation simulated by the model that was integrated from January 1979 to March 1992. Analyses of the climatological annual cycle and interannual variability over the Pacific are presented. The annual means of the simulated zonal and meridional winds agree well with observations. The only appreciable difference is in the region of strong trade winds where the simulated zonal winds are about 15%-20% weaker than observed, The amplitude of the annual harmonics are weaker than observed over the intertropical convergence zone and the South Pacific convergence zone regions. The amplitudes of the interannual variation of the simulated zonal and meridional winds are close to those of the observed variation. The first few dominant empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) of the simulated, as well as the observed, monthly mean winds are found to contain a targe amount of high-frequency intraseasonal variations, While the statistical properties of the high-frequency modes, such as their amplitude and geographical locations, agree with observations, their detailed time evolution does not. When the data are subjected to a 5-month running-mean filter, the first two dominant EOFs of the simulated winds representing the low-frequency EI Nino-Southern Oscillation fluctuations compare quite well with observations. However, the location of the center of the westerly anomalies associated with the warm episodes is simulated about 15 degrees west of the observed locations. The model simulates well the progress of the westerly anomalies toward the eastern Pacific during the evolution of a warm event. The simulated equatorial wind anomalies are comparable in magnitude to the observed anomalies. An intercomparison of the simulation of the interannual variability by a few other GCMs with comparable resolution is also presented. The success in simulation of the large-scale low-frequency part of the tropical surface winds by the atmospheric GCM seems to be related to the model's ability to simulate the large-scale low-frequency part of the precipitation. Good correspondence between the simulated precipitation and the highly reflective cloud anomalies is seen in the first two EOFs of the 5-month running means. Moreover, the strong correlation found between the simulated precipitation and the simulated winds in the first two principal components indicates the primary role of model precipitation in driving the surface winds. The surface winds simulated by a linear model forced by the GCM-simulated precipitation show good resemblance to the GCM-simulated winds in the equatorial region. This result supports the recent findings that the large-scale part of the tropical surface winds is primarily linear.

Streamflow and La Niña event relationships in the ENSO-streamflow core areas

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The high index phase of the Southern Oscillation (SO), La Niña, has not been given as much attention as its counterpart, the low index phase of the SO, El Niño. One reason may be related to the fact that many similarities exist among El Niño events but not among La Niña events. ... In this study, we focus on the influences of La Niña phenomena on streamflow anomalies ... to explore the SO-related signal over the United States.

Inter-regional correlation in tree-growth variations in the western United States, 1513-1964, at ENSO, sunspot, and longer frequency bands

Cross-spectral analysis of regional tree-ring data suggests the spatial pattern of correlation between moisture variations in the Sierra Nevada of central California and in other parts of the western United States is frequency dependent. Short wavelengths (2.8 to 10.7 years), perhaps associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, are strongly coherent both to the north (Oregon) and to the south (Southern California). Longer wavelengths (45 to 75 years) are strongly coherent only to the north. Frequency bands corresponding to annual sunspot series were associated with relatively weak patterns of spatial correlation.

ENSO influences on atmospheric circulation and precipitation in the western United States

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The influence of ENSO on atmospheric circulation and precipitation over the western United States is presented from two perspectives. First, ENSO-associated circulation patterns over the North Pacific/North America sector were identified using an REOF (rotated empirical orthogonal function) analysis of the 700-mb height field and compositing these for extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation Index. ... Second, we examine the variability of precipitation during the warm and cool phases of ENSO for different locations in the western United States.

South American streamflow and the extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation

This study investigates the extent of the affect [sic] of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation on South American streamflow. The response of South American precipitation and temperature to the extreme phases of ENSO (El Niño and La Niña events) is well documented; but the response of South American hydrology has been barely studied. Such paucity of research contrasts sharply with that available on the response of North American streamflow to ENSO events.

Mixed-layer water oscillations in tropical Pacific for ENSO cycle

The main modes of interannal variabilities of thermocline and sea surface wind stress in the tropical Pacific and their interactions are investigated, which show the following results. (1) The thermocline anomalies in the tropical Pacific have a zonal dipole pattern with 160 W as its axis and a meridional seesaw pattern with 6-8 degrees N as its transverse axis. The meridional oscillation has a phase lag of about 90 to the zonal oscillation, both oscillations get together to form the El Nino/La Nina cycle, which behaves as a mixed layer water oscillates anticlockwise within the tropical Pacific basin between equator and 12 degrees N. (2) There are two main patterns of wind stress anomalies in the tropical Pacific, of which the first component caused by trade wind anomaly is characterized by the zonal wind stress anomalies and its corresponding divergences field in the equatorial Pacific, and the abnormal cross- equatorial flow wind stress and its corresponding divergence field, which has a sign opposite to that of the equatorial region, in the off-equator of the tropical North Pacific, and the second component represents the wind stress anomalies and corresponding divergences caused by the ITCZ anomaly. (3) The trade winds anomaly plays a decisive role in the strength and phase transition of the ENSO cycle, which results in the sea level tilting, provides an initial potential energy to the mixed layer water oscillation, and causes the opposite thermocline displacement between the west side and east side of the equator and also between the equator and 12 degrees N of the North Pacific basin, therefore determines the amplitude and route for ENSO cycle. The ITCZ anomaly has some effects on the phase transition. (4) The thermal anomaly of the tropical western Pacific causes the wind stress anomaly and extends eastward along the equator accompanied with the mixed layer water oscillation in the equatorial Pacific, which causes the trade winds anomaly and produces the anomalous wind stress and the corresponding divergence in favor to conduce the oscillation, which in turn intensifies the oscillation. The coupled system of ocean-atmosphere interactions and the inertia gravity of the mixed layer water oscillation provide together a phase-switching mechanism and interannual memory for the ENSO cycle. In conclusion, the ENSO cycle essentially is an inertial oscillation of the mixed layer water induced by both the trade winds anomaly and the coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction in the tropical Pacific basin between the equator and 12 degrees N. When the force produced by the coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction is larger than or equal to the resistance caused by the mixed layer water oscillation, the oscillation will be stronger or maintain as it is, while when the force is less than the resistance, the oscillation will be weaker, even break.

Studies on the Role of Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation in the Interannual Variability of Indian Summer Monsoon

The present study illustrates the biennial oscillation in different ocean-atmosphere parameters associated with interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall.It also accounts the role of different processes like ENSO, IOD, QBO and ISO in the monsoon variability during the TBO years.

Local Hadley circulation over the Asian monsoon region associated with the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation

The Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation (TBO), a major interannual variation phenomenon in the Indo-Pacific region, is the result of strong ocean-atmosphere coupling over the Asian-Australian monsoon area. Along with other meteorological and oceanographic parameters, the tropical circulation also exhibits interannual oscillations. Even though the TBO is the result of strong air–sea interaction, the circulation cells during TBO years are, as yet, not well understood. In the present study, an attempt has been made to understand the interannual variability of the mean meridional circulation and local monsoon circulation over south Asia in connection with the TBO. The stream function computed from the zonal mean meridional wind component of NCEP=NCAR reanalysis data for the years 1950–2003 is used to represent the meanmeridional circulation. Mean meridional mass transport in the topics reverses from a weak monsoon to a strong monsoon in the presence of ENSO, but in normal TBO yearsmean transport remains weak across the Northern Hemisphere. The meridional temperature gradient, which drives the mean meridional circulation, also shows no reversal during the normal TBO cycle. The local Hadley circulation over the monsoon area follows the TBO cycle with anomalous ascent (descent) in strong (weak) monsoon years. During normal TBO years, the Equatorial region and Indian monsoon areas exhibit opposite local Hadley circulation anomalies

The effect of doubled CO2 and model basic state biases on the monsoon-ENSO system. II: Changing ENSO regimes

Integrations of a fully-coupled climate model with and without flux adjustments in the equatorial oceans are performed under 2×CO2 conditions to explore in more detail the impact of increased greenhouse gas forcing on the monsoon-ENSO system. When flux adjustments are used to correct some systematic model biases, ENSO behaviour in the modelled future climate features distinct irregular and periodic (biennial) regimes. Comparison with the observed record yields some consistency with ENSO modes primarily based on air-sea interaction and those dependent on basinwide ocean wave dynamics. Simple theory is also used to draw analogies between the regimes and irregular (stochastically forced) and self-excited oscillations respectively. Periodic behaviour is also found in the Asian-Australian monsoon system, part of an overall biennial tendency of the model under these conditions related to strong monsoon forcing and increased coupling between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) thus serves as a useful descriptor for the coupled monsoon-ENSO system in this case. The presence of obvious regime changes in the monsoon-ENSO system on interdecadal timescales, when using flux adjustments, suggests there may be greater uncertainty in projections of future climate, although further modelling studies are required to confirm the realism and cause of such changes.

The ENSO-Asian monsoon interaction in a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM

In this study, the authors evaluate the (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) ENSO–Asian monsoon interaction in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM) known as HadCM3. The main focus is on two evolving anomalous anticyclones: one located over the south Indian Ocean (SIO) and the other over the western North Pacific (WNP). These two anomalous anticyclones are closely related to the developing and decaying phases of the ENSO and play a crucial role in linking the Asian monsoon to ENSO. It is found that the HadCM3 can well simulate the main features of the evolution of both anomalous anticyclones and the related SST dipoles, in association with the different phases of the ENSO cycle. By using the simulated results, the authors examine the relationship between the WNP/SIO anomalous anticyclones and the ENSO cycle, in particular the biennial component of the relationship. It is found that a strong El Niño event tends to be followed by a more rapid decay and is much more likely to become a La Niña event in the subsequent winter. The twin anomalous anticyclones in the western Pacific in the summer of a decaying El Niño are crucial for the transition from an El Niño into a La Niña. The El Niño (La Niña) events, especially the strong ones, strengthen significantly the correspondence between the SIO anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly in the preceding autumn and WNP anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly in the subsequent spring, and favor the persistence of the WNP anomaly from spring to summer. The present results suggest that both El Niño (La Niña) and the SIO/WNP anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomalies are closely tied with the tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO). In addition, variability in the East Asian summer monsoon, which is dominated by the internal atmospheric variability, seems to be responsible for the appearance of the WNP anticyclonic anomaly through an upper-tropospheric meridional teleconnection pattern over the western and central Pacific.

Connection between Caspian sea level variability and ENSO

The problem of the world greatest lake, the Caspian Sea, level changes attracts the increased attention due to its environmental consequences and unique natural characteristics. Despite the huge number of studies aimed to explain the reasons of the sea level variations the underlying mechanism has not yet been clarified. The important question is to what extent the CSL variability is linked to changes in the global climate system and to what extent it can be explained by internal natural variations in the Caspian regional hydrological system. In this study an evidence of a link between the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and changes of the Caspian Sea level is presented. This link was also found to be dominating in numerical experiments with the ECHAM4 atmospheric general circulation model on the 20th century climate.