The cost-effectiveness of the MobileMums intervention to increase physical activity among mothers with young children: A Markov model informed by a randomised controlled trial

Objectives: To determine the cost-effectiveness of the MobileMums intervention. MobileMums is a 12-week programme which assists mothers with young children to be more physically active, primarily through the use of personalised SMS text-messages. Design: A cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model to estimate and compare the costs and consequences of MobileMums and usual care. Setting: This study considers the cost-effectiveness of MobileMums in Queensland, Australia. Participants: A hypothetical cohort of over 36 000 women with a child under 1 year old is considered. These women are expected to be eligible and willing to participate in the intervention in Queensland, Australia. Data sources: The model was informed by the effectiveness results from a 9-month two-arm community-based randomised controlled trial undertaken in 2011 and registered retrospectively with the Australian Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12611000481976). Baseline characteristics for the model cohort, treatment effects and resource utilisation were all informed by this trial. Main outcome measures: The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) of MobileMums compared with usual care. Results: The intervention is estimated to lead to an increase of 131 QALYs for an additional cost to the health system of 1.1 million Australian dollars (AUD). The expected incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for MobileMums is 8608 AUD per QALY gained. MobileMums has a 98% probability of being cost-effective at a cost-effectiveness threshold of 64 000 AUD. Varying modelling assumptions has little effect on this result. Conclusions: At a cost-effectiveness threshold of 64 000 AUD, MobileMums would likely be a cost-effective use of healthcare resources in Queensland, Australia. Trial registration number: Australian Clinical Trials Registry; ACTRN12611000481976.

Open-pit block sequencing optimization: A mathematical model and solution technique

This study presents a comprehensive mathematical formulation model for a short-term open-pit mine block sequencing problem, which considers nearly all relevant technical aspects in open-pit mining. The proposed model aims to obtain the optimum extraction sequences of the original-size (smallest) blocks over short time intervals and in the presence of real-life constraints, including precedence relationship, machine capacity, grade requirements, processing demands and stockpile management. A hybrid branch-and-bound and simulated annealing algorithm is developed to solve the problem. Computational experiments show that the proposed methodology is a promising way to provide quantitative recommendations for mine planning and scheduling engineers.

Inflammation-driven bone formation in a mouse model of ankylosing spondylitis: Sequential not parallel processes

Background Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is an immune-mediated arthritis particularly targeting the spine and pelvis and is characterised by inflammation, osteoproliferation and frequently ankylosis. Current treatments that predominately target inflammatory pathways have disappointing efficacy in slowing disease progression. Thus, a better understanding of the causal association and pathological progression from inflammation to bone formation, particularly whether inflammation directly initiates osteoproliferation, is required. Methods The proteoglycan-induced spondylitis (PGISp) mouse model of AS was used to histopathologically map the progressive axial disease events, assess molecular changes during disease progression and define disease progression using unbiased clustering of semi-quantitative histology. PGISp mice were followed over a 24-week time course. Spinal disease was assessed using a novel semi-quantitative histological scoring system that independently evaluated the breadth of pathological features associated with PGISp axial disease, including inflammation, joint destruction and excessive tissue formation (osteoproliferation). Matrix components were identified using immunohistochemistry. Results Disease initiated with inflammation at the periphery of the intervertebral disc (IVD) adjacent to the longitudinal ligament, reminiscent of enthesitis, and was associated with upregulated tumor necrosis factor and metalloproteinases. After a lag phase, established inflammation was temporospatially associated with destruction of IVDs, cartilage and bone. At later time points, advanced disease was characterised by substantially reduced inflammation, excessive tissue formation and ectopic chondrocyte expansion. These distinct features differentiated affected mice into early, intermediate and advanced disease stages. Excessive tissue formation was observed in vertebral joints only if the IVD was destroyed as a consequence of the early inflammation. Ectopic excessive tissue was predominantly chondroidal with chondrocyte-like cells embedded within collagen type II- and X-rich matrix. This corresponded with upregulation of mRNA for cartilage markers Col2a1, sox9 and Comp. Osteophytes, though infrequent, were more prevalent in later disease. Conclusions The inflammation-driven IVD destruction was shown to be a prerequisite for axial disease progression to osteoproliferation in the PGISp mouse. Osteoproliferation led to vertebral body deformity and fusion but was never seen concurrent with persistent inflammation, suggesting a sequential process. The findings support that early intervention with anti-inflammatory therapies will be needed to limit destructive processes and consequently prevent progression of AS.

A generic individual-based spatially explicit model as a novel tool for investigating insect-plant interactions: A case study of the behavioural ecology of frugivorous Tephritidae

Computational modelling of mechanisms underlying processes in the real world can be of great value in understanding complex biological behaviours. Uptake in general biology and ecology has been rapid. However, it often requires specific data sets that are overly costly in time and resources to collect. The aim of the current study was to test whether a generic behavioural ecology model constructed using published data could give realistic outputs for individual species. An individual-based model was developed using the Pattern-Oriented Modelling (POM) strategy and protocol, based on behavioural rules associated with insect movement choices. Frugivorous Tephritidae (fruit flies) were chosen because of economic significance in global agriculture and the multiple published data sets available for a range of species. The Queensland fruit fly (Qfly), Bactrocera tryoni, was identified as a suitable individual species for testing. Plant canopies with modified architecture were used to run predictive simulations. A field study was then conducted to validate our model predictions on how plant architecture affects fruit flies’ behaviours. Characteristics of plant architecture such as different shapes, e.g., closed-canopy and vase-shaped, affected fly movement patterns and time spent on host fruit. The number of visits to host fruit also differed between the edge and centre in closed-canopy plants. Compared to plant architecture, host fruit has less contribution to effects on flies’ movement patterns. The results from this model, combined with our field study and published empirical data suggest that placing fly traps in the upper canopy at the edge should work best. Such a modelling approach allows rapid testing of ideas about organismal interactions with environmental substrates in silico rather than in vivo, to generate new perspectives. Using published data provides a saving in time and resources. Adjustments for specific questions can be achieved by refinement of parameters based on targeted experiments.

Infinite dimensional slow modulations in a well known delayed model for cutting tool vibrations

We apply the method of multiple scales (MMS) to a well-known model of regenerative cutting vibrations in the large delay regime. By ``large'' we mean the delay is much larger than the timescale of typical cutting tool oscillations. The MMS up to second order, recently developed for such systems, is applied here to study tool dynamics in the large delay regime. The second order analysis is found to be much more accurate than the first order analysis. Numerical integration of the MMS slow flow is much faster than for the original equation, yet shows excellent accuracy in that plotted solutions of moderate amplitudes are visually near-indistinguishable. The advantages of the present analysis are that infinite dimensional dynamics is retained in the slow flow, while the more usual center manifold reduction gives a planar phase space; lower-dimensional dynamical features, such as Hopf bifurcations and families of periodic solutions, are also captured by the MMS; the strong sensitivity of the slow modulation dynamics to small changes in parameter values, peculiar to such systems with large delays, is seen clearly; and though certain parameters are treated as small (or, reciprocally, large), the analysis is not restricted to infinitesimal distances from the Hopf bifurcation.

Revised Cam-Clay Model

The Cam-clay models, or any other plasticity-based models, do not make distinction between the mode of stress transfer in coarse- and fine-grained soils. An examination of behavior at micro level in fine-grained soils, from the consideration of load transfer through physico-chemical interactions, suggests that the plastic compressions result from the grouping of particles into larger clusters and that elastic compressions result from the decrease in the spacing between particles. During shearing, these clusters gradually get dismembered, releasing the locked-in energy. The effect of such dismembering of clusters can be easily incorporated into the original Cam-clay model, and better predictions can be obtained with the associated flow rule, itself, for both normally and over consolidated states. The method essentially defines the hardening of yield surfaces with internal changes in the spacing between particles, instead of changes in externally observed plastic strains. The approach describes the behavior of over consolidated soils as yielding along successfively hardening Roscoe surfaces with gradually varying plastic properties.

A high performance scheme for EEG compression using a multichannel model

The amount of data contained in electroencephalogram (EEG) recordings is quite massive and this places constraints on bandwidth and storage. The requirement of online transmission of data needs a scheme that allows higher performance with lower computation. Single channel algorithms, when applied on multichannel EEG data fail to meet this requirement. While there have been many methods proposed for multichannel ECG compression, not much work appears to have been done in the area of multichannel EEG. compression. In this paper, we present an EEG compression algorithm based on a multichannel model, which gives higher performance compared to other algorithms. Simulations have been performed on both normal and pathological EEG data and it is observed that a high compression ratio with very large SNR is obtained in both cases. The reconstructed signals are found to match the original signals very closely, thus confirming that diagnostic information is being preserved during transmission.

The generalized Onsager model for the secondary flow in a high-speed rotating cylinder

The generalizations of the Onsager model for the radial boundary layer and the Carrier-Maslen model for the end-cap axial boundary layer in a high-speed rotating cylinder are formulated for studying the secondary gas flow due to wall heating and due to insertion of mass, momentum and energy into the cylinder. The generalizations have wider applicability than the original Onsager and Carrier-Maslen models, because they are not restricted to the limit A >> 1, though they are restricted to the limit R e >> 1 and a high-aspect-ratio cylinder whose length/diameter ratio is large. Here, the stratification parameter A = root m Omega(2)R(2)/2k(B)T). This parameter A is the ratio of the peripheral speed, Omega R, to the most probable molecular speed, root 2k(B)T/m, the Reynolds number Re = rho w Omega R(2)/mu, where m is the molecular mass, Omega and R are the rotational speed and radius of the cylinder, k(B) is the Boltzmann constant, T is the gas temperature, rho(w) is the gas density at wall, and mu is the gas viscosity. In the case of wall forcing, analytical solutions are obtained for the sixth-order generalized Onsager equations for the master potential, and for the fourth-order generalized Carrier-Maslen equation for the velocity potential. For the case of mass/momentum/energy insertion into the flow, the separation-of-variables procedure is used, and the appropriate homogeneous boundary conditions are specified so that the linear operators in the axial and radial directions are self-adjoint. The discrete eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of the linear operators (sixth-order and second-order in the radial and axial directions for the Onsager equation, and fourth-order and second-order in the axial and radial directions for the Carrier-Maslen equation) are determined. These solutions are compared with direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) simulations. The comparison reveals that the boundary conditions in the simulations and analysis have to be matched with care. The commonly used `diffuse reflection' boundary conditions at solid walls in DSMC simulations result in a non-zero slip velocity as well as a `temperature slip' (gas temperature at the wall is different from wall temperature). These have to be incorporated in the analysis in order to make quantitative predictions. In the case of mass/momentum/energy sources within the flow, it is necessary to ensure that the homogeneous boundary conditions are accurately satisfied in the simulations. When these precautions are taken, there is excellent agreement between analysis and simulations, to within 10 %, even when the stratification parameter is as low as 0.707, the Reynolds number is as low as 100 and the aspect ratio (length/diameter) of the cylinder is as low as 2, and the secondary flow velocity is as high as 0.2 times the maximum base flow velocity. The predictions of the generalized models are also significantly better than those of the original Onsager and Carrier-Maslen models, which are restricted to thin boundary layers in the limit of high stratification parameter.

A model investigation of vegetation-atmosphere interactions on a millennial timescale

A terrestrial biosphere model with dynamic vegetation capability, Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS2), coupled to the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM2) is used to investigate the multiple climate-forest equilibrium states of the climate system. A 1000-year control simulation and another 1000-year land cover change simulation that consisted of global deforestation for 100 years followed by re-growth of forests for the subsequent 900 years were performed. After several centuries of interactive climate-vegetation dynamics, the land cover change simulation converged to essentially the same climate state as the control simulation. However, the climate system takes about a millennium to reach the control forest state. In the absence of deep ocean feedbacks in our model, the millennial time scale for converging to the original climate state is dictated by long time scales of the vegetation dynamics in the northern high latitudes. Our idealized modeling study suggests that the equilibrium state reached after complete global deforestation followed by re-growth of forests is unlikely to be distinguishable from the control climate. The real world, however, could have multiple climate-forest states since our modeling study is unlikely to have represented all the essential ecological processes (e. g. altered fire regimes, seed sources and seedling establishment dynamics) for the reestablishment of major biomes.

Optimal power allocation for protective jamming in wireless networks: A flow based model

We address the problem of passive eavesdroppers in multi-hop wireless networks using the technique of friendly jamming. The network is assumed to employ Decode and Forward (DF) relaying. Assuming the availability of perfect channel state information (CSI) of legitimate nodes and eavesdroppers, we consider a scheduling and power allocation (PA) problem for a multiple-source multiple-sink scenario so that eavesdroppers are jammed, and source-destination throughput targets are met while minimizing the overall transmitted power. We propose activation sets (AS-es) for scheduling, and formulate an optimization problem for PA. Several methods for finding AS-es are discussed and compared. We present an approximate linear program for the original nonlinear, non-convex PA optimization problem, and argue that under certain conditions, both the formulations produce identical results. In the absence of eavesdroppers' CSI, we utilize the notion of Vulnerability Region (VR), and formulate an optimization problem with the objective of minimizing the VR. Our results show that the proposed solution can achieve power-efficient operation while defeating eavesdroppers and achieving desired source-destination throughputs simultaneously. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Peierls-Nabarro model of interfacial misfit dislocation: An analytic solution

We propose a method to treat the interfacial misfit dislocation array following the original Peierls-Nabarro's ideas. A simple and exact analytic solution is derived in the extended Peierls-Nabarro's model, and this solution reflects the core structure and the energy of misfit dislocation, which depend on misfit and bond strength. We also find that only with beta < 0.2 the structure of interface can be represented by an array of singular Volterra dislocations, which conforms to those of atomic simulation. Interfacial energy and adhesive work can be estimated by inputting ab initio calculation data into the model, and this shows the method can provide a correlation between the ab initio calculations and elastic continuum theory.

Age-dependent decrease in glutamine synthetase expression in the hippocampal astroglia of the triple transgenic Alzheimer's disease mouse model : mechanism for deficient glutamatergic transmission?

Astrocytes are fundamental for brain homeostasis and the progression and outcome of many neuropathologies including Alzheimer's disease (AD). In the triple transgenic mouse model of AD (3xTg-AD) generalised hippocampal astroglia atrophy precedes a restricted and specific beta-amyloid (A beta) plaque-related astrogliosis. Astrocytes are critical for CNS glutamatergic transmission being the principal elements of glutamate homeostasis through maintaining its synthesis, uptake and turnover via glutamate-glutamine shuttle. Glutamine synthetase (GS), which is specifically expressed in astrocytes, forms glutamine by an ATP-dependent amination of glutamate. Here, we report changes in GS astrocytic expression in two major cognitive areas of the hippocampus (the dentate gyrus, DG and the CA1) in 3xTg-AD animals aged between 9 and 18 months. We found a significant reduction in Nv (number of cell/mm(3)) of GS immunoreactive (GS-IR) astrocytes starting from 12 months (28.59%) of age in the DG, and sustained at 18 months (31.65%). CA1 decrease of GS-positive astrocytes Nv (33.26%) occurs at 18 months. This Nv reduction of GSIR astrocytes is paralleled by a decrease in overall GS expression (determined by its optical density) that becomes significant at 18 months (21.61% and 19.68% in DG and CA1, respectively). GS-IR Nv changes are directly associated with the presence of A beta deposits showing a decrease of 47.92% as opposed to 23.47% in areas free of A beta. These changes in GS containing astrocytes and GS-immunoreactivity indicate AD-related impairments of glutamate homeostatic system, at the advanced and late stages of the disease, which may affect the efficacy of glutamatergic transmission in the diseased brain that may contribute to the cognitive deficiency.

A Model of Ischemia-Induced Neuroblast Activation in the Adult Subventricular Zone

12 p.

Early Functional Deficit and Microglial Disturbances in a Mouse Model of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis

11 p.

Ancient DNA from Hunter-Gatherer and Farmer Groups from Northern Spain Supports a Random Dispersion Model for the Neolithic Expansion into Europe

10 p.