Forecasting US bond default ratings allowing for previous and initial state dependence in an ordered probit model

In this paper we investigate the ability of a number of different ordered probit models to predict ratings based on firm-specific data on business and financial risks. We investigate models based on momentum, drift and ageing and compare them against alternatives that take into account the initial rating of the firm and its previous actual rating. Using data on US bond issuing firms rated by Fitch over the years 2000 to 2007 we compare the performance of these models in predicting the rating in-sample and out-of-sample using root mean squared errors, Diebold-Mariano tests of forecast performance and contingency tables. We conclude that initial and previous states have a substantial influence on rating prediction.

Integer Programming on Domains Containing Inseparable Ordered Paris

Using the integer programming approach introduced by Sethuraman, Teo, and Vohra (2003), we extend the analysis of the preference domains containing an inseparable ordered pair, initiated by Kalai and Ritz (1978). We show that these domains admit not only Arrovian social welfare functions \without ties," but also Arrovian social welfare functions \with ties," since they satisfy the strictly decomposability condition introduced by Busetto, Codognato, and Tonin (2012). Moreover, we go further in the comparison between Kalai and Ritz (1978)'s inseparability and Arrow (1963)'s single-peak restrictions, showing that the former condition is more \respectable," in the sense of Muller and Satterthwaite (1985).

Singular integrals on Ahlfors-David regular subsets of the Heisenberg group

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

IL-2- and CD25-dependent immunoregulatory mechanisms in the homeostasis of T-cell subsets.

IL-2 plays a pivotal role in regulating the adaptive immune system by controlling the survival and proliferation of regulatory T (Treg) cells, which are required for the maintenance of immune tolerance. Moreover, IL-2 is implicated in the differentiation and homeostasis of effector T-cell subsets, including T(H)1, T(H)2, T(H)17, and memory CD8+ T cells. The IL-2 receptor is composed of 3 distinct subunits, namely the alpha (CD25), beta (CD122), and gamma (gammac) chains. Of crucial importance for the delivery of IL-2 signals to Treg cells is the expression of CD25, which, along with CD122 and gammac, confers high affinity binding to IL-2. Notably, recent findings suggest a novel role for CD25, whereby CD25 molecules on Treg cells and possibly other cells are capable of influencing T-cell homeostasis by means of IL-2 deprivation. This review explores these findings and integrates them into our current understanding of T-cell homeostasis.

CD4+, CD8+ and CD4- CD8- T cell-subsets can confer protection against Leishmania m. mexicana infection

We studied the role of CD4+, CD8+, CD4- CD8- T cells and IgG anti-Leishmania after infection or vaccination in the CBA/ca mouse. Mice were either infected with L. m. mexicana promastigotes or vaccinated with parasite-membrane antigens incorporated into liposomes. Successfully vaccinated mice were used as cell-donors in adoptive transfer experiments. Naive, syngeneic recipients received highly-enriched CD4+, CD8+ or CD4- CD8- T cells from those two set of donors and challenged with live parasites. Our results showed that, both CD4+ and CD8+ T cells from infected or vaccinated donors conferred significant disease-resistance to naive recipients. In addition, adoptive transfer of CD4- CD8- T cells from vaccinated donors significantly delayed lesion growth in recipient mice. We concluded that vaccination of CBA mice correlates with the induction of protective CD4+, CD8+ and CD4- CD8- T cells and the synthesis of IgG anti-Leishmania.

Low occurrence of arthritic manifestations in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis: T cell subsets and humoral studies

Given the suspected role of mycobacteria in the establishment of disorders with an autoimmune background and joint damage, a study was conducted to analize whether rheumatic symptoms were likely to be present in tuberculosis (TB) patients. To this end, 330 patients with a bacteriologic confirmation of tuberculosis were investigated for the presence of arthritic complaints. The latter were recorded in five of them with rheumatic symptoms mostly involving interphalangeal and metacarpophalanged joints, and preceding the clinical manifestations of the TB illness. Three out of these five patients remained arthritic by the time of the bacteriologic conversion and fulfilled the criteria for the diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis. In the two remaining patients sputum negativization was accompanied by a disappearance of rheumatic manifestations. These patients were also assessed for their peripheral levels of major T cell subsets as well as for the presence of autoantibodies. Comparisons with a series of non-arthritic TB cases, rheumatoid arthritis patients, and controls revealed that presence of rheumatic manifestations was associated with a different profile of autoantibody formation and T cell subset changes. Evidence recorded in the present study indicates that joint affectation in TB is a rare event, being rather the exception than the rule.

Human chronic chagasic cardiopathy: participation of parasite antigens, subsets of lymphocytes, cytokines and microvascular abnormalities

This article tries to demonstrate by new pathological findings (with the use of immunohistochemical technique and confocal laser microscopy) that chronic chagasic cardiomyopathy is a result of multiple factors involving myocarditis, immunodepression, severe fibrosis and microvessels dilatation and that all of these alterations are probably directly related with the presence of Trypanosoma cruzi parasites in the host associated with inadequate immunological response of the host.

Heterogeneity of human monocytes: an optimized four-color flow cytometry protocol for analysis of monocyte subsets.

Monocytes are central mediators in the development of atherosclerotic plaques. They circulate in blood and eventually migrate into tissue including the vessel wall where they give rise to macrophages and dendritic cells. The existence of monocyte subsets with distinct roles in homeostasis and inflammation suggests specialization of function. These subsets are identified based on expression of the CD14 and CD16 markers. Routinely applicable protocols remain elusive, however. Here, we present an optimized four-color flow cytometry protocol for analysis of human blood monocyte subsets using a specific PE-Cy5-conjugated monoclonal antibody (mAb) to HLA-DR, a PE-Cy7-conjugated mAb to CD14, a FITC-conjugated mAb to CD16, and PE-conjugated mAbs to additional markers relevant to monocyte function. Classical CD14(+)CD16(-) monocytes (here termed "Mo1" subset) expressed high CCR2, CD36, CD64, and CD62L, but low CX(3)CR1, whereas "nonclassical" CD14(lo)CD16(+) monocytes (Mo3) essentially showed the inverse expression pattern. CD14(+)CD16(+) monocytes (Mo2) expressed high HLA-DR, CD36, and CD64. In patients with stable coronary artery disease (n = 13), classical monocytes were decreased, whereas "nonclassical" monocytes were increased 90% compared with healthy subjects with angiographically normal coronary arteries (n = 14). Classical monocytes from CAD patients expressed higher CX(3)CR1 and CCR2 than controls. Thus, stable CAD is associated with expansion of the nonclassical monocyte subset and increased expression of inflammatory markers on monocytes. Flow cytometric analysis of monocyte subsets and marker expression may provide valuable information on vascular inflammation. This may translate into the identification of monocyte subsets as selective therapeutic targets, thus avoiding adverse events associated with indiscriminate monocyte inhibition.

Effects of immunosuppressive drugs on T helper cells subsets and potential to promote tolerance in a stringent experimental transplantation model.

To achieve the goal of sustained donor-specifi c transplantation (Tx) tolerance, research efforts are now focusing on therapies based on specifi c cell subsets with regulatory properties. We and others have previously highlighted the therapeutic potential of naturally occurring CD4+CD25+Foxp3+ regulatory T cells (nTreg) in promoting long-term graft acceptance. Using more stringent experimental Tx models, we were however confronted to limitations. Indeed, while the transfer of antigenspecifi c nTreg promoted long-term MHC-mismatched skin allograft acceptance in lymphopenic mice in the absence of any immunosuppressive drug, allograft survival was only slightly prolonged when nTreg were transferred alone into non-lymphopenic mice. This suggested that in more stringent conditions, adjuvant therapies may be needed to effectively control alloreactive T cells (Teff). Whether and how the expansion of the Treg pool could be best combined with current immunosuppressive regimens in clinical settings remains to be defi ned. In this study, we have used in vitro assays and an in vivo skin Tx model to investigate the effects of various immunosuppressive drugs on the survival, proliferation and effector function of Teff and nTreg in response to alloantigens. Teff proliferation was inhibited in a dose-dependent manner by rapamycin and cyclosporine A, while anti-CD154 mAb only marginally affected Teff survival, proliferation and effector fucntion in vitro. Rapamycin promoted apoptosis of Teff as compared to nTreg that were more resistant in the presence of IL-2. In vivo, the transfer and/or expansion of Treg could be advantageously combined with rapamycin and anti-CD154 mAb treatment to signifi cantly prolong MHC-mismatched skin allografts survival in non-lymphopenic recipients. Taken together our data indicate that immunosuppressive drugs differentially target T-cell subsets and that some regimens could promote Treg expansion while controlling the Teff pool in response to alloantigens.

High expectation in non-evidence-based smoking cessation interventions among smokers--the CoLaus study.

To assess the preferred methods to quit smoking among current smokers. Cross-sectional, population-based study conducted in Lausanne between 2003 and 2006 including 988 current smokers. Preference was assessed by questionnaire. Evidence-based (EB) methods were nicotine replacement, bupropion, physician or group consultations; non-EB-based methods were acupuncture, hypnosis and autogenic training. EB methods were frequently (physician consultation: 48%, 95% confidence interval (45-51); nicotine replacement therapy: 35% (32-38)) or rarely (bupropion and group consultations: 13% (11-15)) preferred by the participants. Non-EB methods were preferred by a third (acupuncture: 33% (30-36)), a quarter (hypnosis: 26% (23-29)) or a seventh (autogenic training: 13% (11-15)) of responders. On multivariate analysis, women preferred both EB and non-EB methods more frequently than men (odds ratio and 95% confidence interval: 1.46 (1.10-1.93) and 2.26 (1.72-2.96) for any EB and non-EB method, respectively). Preference for non-EB methods was higher among highly educated participants, while no such relationship was found for EB methods. Many smokers are unaware of the full variety of methods to quit smoking. Better information regarding these methods is necessary.

The sample processing time interval as an influential factor in flow cytometry analysis of lymphocyte subsets

The objective of this paper is to propose a protocol to analyze blood samples in yellow fever 17DD vaccinated which developed serious adverse events. We investigated whether or not the time between sample collection and sample processing could interfere in lymphocyte subset percentage, for it is often impossible to analyze blood samples immediately after collection due to transport delay from collection places to the flow cytometry facility. CD4+CD38+ T, CD8+CD38+ T, CD3+ T, CD19+ B lymphocyte subsets were analyzed by flow cytometry in nine healthy volunteers immediately after blood collection and after intervals of 24 and 48 h. The whole blood lysis method and gradient sedimentation by Histopaque were applied to isolate peripheral blood mononuclear cells for flow cytometry analyses. With the lysis method, there was no significant change in lymphocyte subset percentage between the two time intervals (24 and 48 h). In contrast, when blood samples were processed by Histopaque gradient sedimentation, time intervals for sample processing influenced the percentage in T lymphocyte subsets but not in B cells. From the results obtained, we could conclude that the whole blood lysis method is more appropriate than gradient sedimentation by Histopaque for immunophenotyping of blood samples collected after serious adverse events, due to less variation in the lymphocyte subset levels with respect to the time factor.

Quantitation of endogenous mouse mammary tumor virus superantigen expression by lymphocyte subsets.

Superantigens (SAg) encoded by endogenous mouse mammary tumor viruses (Mtv) interact with the V beta domain of the T cell receptor (TcR-V beta). Presentation of Mtv SAg can lead to stimulation and/or deletion of the reactive T cells, but little is known about the quantitative aspects of SAg presentation. Although monoclonal antibodies have been raised against Mtv SAg, they have not been useful in quantitating SAg protein, which is present in very low amounts in normal cells. Alternative attempts to quantitate Mtv SAg mRNA expression are complicated by the fact that Mtv transcription occurs from multiple loci and in different overlapping reading frames. In this report we describe a novel competitive polymerase chain reaction assay which allows the locus-specific quantitation of SAg expression at the mRNA level in lymphocyte subsets from mouse strains with multiple endogenous Mtv loci. In B cells as well as T cells (CD4+ or CD8+), Mtv-6 SAg is expressed at the highest levels, followed by Mtv-7 SAg and (to a much lesser extent) Mtv-8,9. Consistent with functional Mtv-7 SAg presentation studies, we find that Mtv-7 SAg expression is higher in B cells than in CD8+ T cells and very low in the CD4+ subset. The overall hierarchy in Mtv SAg expression (i.e. Mtv-6 > Mtv-7 > Mtv 8,9) was also observed for mRNA isolated from neonatal thymus. Furthermore, the kinetics of intrathymic deletion of the corresponding TcR-V beta domains during ontogeny correlated with the levels of Mtv SAg expression. Collectively our data suggest that T cell responses to Mtv SAg are largely controlled by SAg expression levels on presenting cells.

Methods for the ex vivo characterization of human CD8+ T subsets based on gene expression and replicative history analysis.

The generation of an antigen-specific T-lymphocyte response is a complex multi-step process. Upon T-cell receptor-mediated recognition of antigen presented by activated dendritic cells, naive T-lymphocytes enter a program of proliferation and differentiation, during the course of which they acquire effector functions and may ultimately become memory T-cells. A major goal of modern immunology is to precisely identify and characterize effector and memory T-cell subpopulations that may be most efficient in disease protection. Sensitive methods are required to address these questions in exceedingly low numbers of antigen-specific lymphocytes recovered from clinical samples, and not manipulated in vitro. We have developed new techniques to dissect immune responses against viral or tumor antigens. These allow the isolation of various subsets of antigen-specific T-cells (with major histocompatibility complex [MHC]-peptide multimers and five-color FACS sorting) and the monitoring of gene expression in individual cells (by five-cell reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction [RT-PCR]). We can also follow their proliferative life history by flow-fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) analysis of average telomere length. Recently, using these tools, we have identified subpopulations of CD8+ T-lymphocytes with distinct proliferative history and partial effector-like properties. Our data suggest that these subsets descend from recently activated T-cells and are committed to become differentiated effector T-lymphocytes.

Digital inmigrants and digital natives expectation collection in the Andalusian Public Health System Virtual Library: communication with our users

The Andalusian Public Health System Virtual Library (Biblioteca Virtual del Sistema Sanitario Público de Andalucía, BV-SSPA) provides access to health information resources and services to healthcare professionals through its Website. This virtual environment demands higher users’ knowledge in order to satisfy of the need of information of our users, as digital natives as digital immigrants, improving at the same time the communication with all of them. 1. To collect clients' views and expectations according to their nature of digital natives and immigrants. 2. To know our online reputation. A Collecting User Expectation Questionnaire will be built, taking into account the segmentation of the BV-SSPA users’ professional groups of the Andalusian Public Health System. A pilot test will be run to check the survey dimensions and items about practices, attitudes and knowledge of our users. Two Quality Function Deployment (QFD) matrices will enable the BV-SSPA services to be targeted to our digital natives or digital immigrants, according to their nature, finding the best way to satisfy their information needs. We provide feedback on BV-SSPA: users can have the opportunity to post feedback about the site via the 'Contact us' section and comment about their experience. And Web 2.0 is a shop window, providing the opportunity to show the comments; and through time, our online reputation will be built, but the BV-SSPA must manage its own personal branding. Web 2.0 tools are a driver of improvement, because they provide a key source of insight into people's attitudes. Besides, the BV-SSPA digital identity will be analyzed through indicators like major search engine referrals breakdown, top referring sites (non search engines), or top search engine referral phrases, among others. Definition of digital native and digital immigrant profiles of the BV-SSPA, and their difference, will be explained by their expectations. The design of the two QFD matrices will illustrate in just one graph the requirements of both groups for tackling digital abilities and inequalities. The BV-SSPA could deliver information and services through alternative channels. On the other hand, we are developing a strategy to identify, to measure and to manage a digital identity through communication with the user and to find out our online reputation. With the use of different tools from quantitative and qualitative methodology, and the opportunities offered by Web 2.0 tools, the BV-SSPA will know the expectations of their users as a first step to satisfy their necessities. Personalization is pivotal to the success of the Site, delivering tailored content to individuals based on their recorded preferences. The valuable user research can be used during new product development and redesign. Besides positive interaction let us build trust, show authenticity, and foster loyalty: we improve with effort, communication and show.

Lymphocyte subsets in human immunodeficiency virus-unexposed Brazilian individuals from birth to adulthood

Ethnic origin, genetics, gender and environmental factors have been shown to influence some immunologic indices, so that development of reference values for populations of different backgrounds may be necessary. We have determined the distribution of lymphocyte subsets in healthy Brazilian individuals from birth to adulthood. Lymphocyte subsets were determined using four-colour cytometry in a cross-sectional study of 463 human immunodeficiency virus-unexposed children and adults from birth through 49 years of age. Lymphocyte subsets varied according to age, as previously observed in other studies. However, total CD4+ T cell numbers were lower than what was described in the Pediatric AIDS Clinical Trials Group P1009 (PACTG P1009), which assessed an American population of predominantly African and Hispanic backgrounds until the 12-18 year age range, when values were comparable. Naïve percentages and absolute values of CD8+ T cells, as assessed by CD45RA expression, were also lower than the PACTG P1009 data for all analysed age ranges. CD38 expression on both CD4+ and CD8+ T cells was lower than the PACTG P1009 values, with a widening gap between the two studies at older age ranges. Different patterns of cell differentiation seem to occur in different settings and may have characteristic expression within each population.