Optimal reserve management and sovereign debt

Most models currently used to determine optimal foreign reserve holdings take the level of international debt as given. However, given the sovereign`s willingness-to-pay incentive problems, reserve accumulation may reduce sustainable debt levels. In addition, assuming constant debt levels does not allow addressing one of the puzzles behind using reserves as a means to avoid the negative effects of crisis: why do not sovereign countries reduce their sovereign debt instead? To study the joint decision of holding sovereign debt and reserves, we construct a stochastic dynamic equilibrium model calibrated to a sample of emerging markets. We obtain that the reserve accumulation does not play a quantitatively important role in this model. In fact, we find the optimal policy is not to hold reserves at all. This finding is robust to considering interest rate shocks, sudden stops, contingent reserves and reserve dependent output costs. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimal estimation of one-parameter quantum channels

We explore the task of optimal quantum channel identification and in particular, the estimation of a general one-parameter quantum process. We derive new characterizations of optimality and apply the results to several examples including the qubit depolarizing channel and the harmonic oscillator damping channel. We also discuss the geometry of the problem and illustrate the usefulness of using entanglement in process estimation.

LOSS OF CD40 ENDOGENOUS S-NITROSYLATION DURING INFLAMMATORY RESPONSE IN ENDOTOXEMIC MICE AND PATIENTS WITH SEPSIS

Signal transduction through the surface molecule CD40 is critical for cellular activation in immunoinflammatory states such as sepsis. The mechanisms regulating this pathway are not completely understood. Because CD40 displays potentially regulatory cysteine residues and CD40 is probably exposed to NO in the inflammatory milieu, we hypothesized that S-nitrosylation, the interaction of NO with cysteines residues, acts as a post-translational modification on CD40, coregulating the signaling activity and, therefore, the level of cellular activation. As assessed by the biotin switch and the reduction/chemiluminescence S-nitrosylation detection techniques, CD40 was found to be S-nitrosylated endogenously and upon exposure to NO donors in both human and murine macrophages. S-nitrosylation of CD40 was associated with milder activation by its ligand (CD40L), leading to reduced in vitro cytokine (IL-1 beta, IL-12, and TNF-alpha) production, which was reversed in the presence of inhibitors of NO synthesis. S-nitrosylated CD40 was found in resting RAW 246.7 macrophages and BALB/c mice peritoneal macrophages, turning into the denitrosylated state upon in vitro or systemic exposure, respectively, to LPS. Moreover, monocytes from patients with sepsis displayed denitrosylated CD40 in contrast to the CD40 S-nitrosylation measured in healthy individuals. Finally, in an attempt to explain how S-nitrosylation regulates CD40 activation, we demonstrate that NO affects the redistribution of CD40 on the cell surface, which is a requirement for optimal signal transduction. Our results support a novel post-translational regulatory mechanism in which the CD40 signal may be, at least in part, dependent on cellular activation-induced receptor denitrosylation.

The effect of spatial definition on the allocation of clients to screening clinics

We compared four strategies for inviting 91,456 women aged 50-69 years to one of six clinics for mammography screening and 40,142 men aged 60-79 years to one of 10 clinics for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) screening. The strategies were invitation to the clinic nearest to the client and invitation to the clinic nearest to the client's area of residence defined by census small area, postcode and local government area. For each strategy we calculated the expected demand at each clinic and the travel distances for clients. We found that when women were allocated to mammography clinics on the basis of the local government area instead of their individual address, expected demand at one clinic increased by 60%, and 19% of clients were invited to attend a more remote clinic, entailing 99,000 km of additional travel. Similar results were obtained for men allocated to AAA clinics by their postcode of residence instead of their individual address: 55% difference in expected demand, 13% to a more remote clinic and 60,000 km of extra travel. Allocation on the basis of small areas did not show such great differences, except for travel distance, which was about 5% higher for each clinic type. We recommend that allocation of clients to screening clinics be made according to residential address, that assessment of the location of clinics be based on distances between residences and nearest clinic, but that planning new locations for clinics be aided with spatial analysis tools using small area demographic and social data. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Effects of Optimal Medical Treatment With or Without Coronary Revascularization on Angina and Subsequent Revascularizations in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Stable Ischemic Heart Disease

Background-In the Bypass Angioplasty Revascularization Investigation 2 Diabetes (BARI 2D) trial, an initial strategy of coronary revascularization and optimal medical treatment (REV) compared with an initial optimal medical treatment with the option of subsequent revascularization (MED) did not reduce all-cause mortality or the composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and stable ischemic heart disease. In the same population, we tested whether the REV strategy was superior to the MED strategy in preventing worsening and new angina and subsequent coronary revascularizations. Methods and Results-Among the 2364 men and women (mean age, 62.4 years) with type 2 diabetes mellitus, documented coronary artery disease, and myocardial ischemia, 1191 were randomized to the MED and 1173 to the REV strategy preselected in the percutaneous coronary intervention (796) and coronary artery bypass graft (377) strata. Compared with the MED strategy, the REV strategy at the 3-year follow-up had a lower rate of worsening angina (8% versus 13%; P < 0.001), new angina (37% versus 51%; P = 0.001), and subsequent coronary revascularizations (18% versus 33%; P < 0.001) and a higher rate of angina-free status (66% versus 58%; P = 0.003). The coronary artery bypass graft stratum patients were at higher risk than those in the percutaneous coronary intervention stratum, and had the greatest benefits from REV. Conclusions-In these patients, the REV strategy reduced the occurrence of worsening angina, new angina, and subsequent coronary revascularizations more than the MED strategy. The symptomatic benefits were observed particularly for high-risk patients.

Optimal quantum measurements for phase-shift estimation in optical interferometry

Quantum information theory, applied to optical interferometry, yields a 1/n scaling of phase uncertainty Delta phi independent of the applied phase shift phi, where n is the number of photons in the interferometer. This 1/n scaling is achieved provided that the output state is subjected to an optimal phase measurement. We establish this scaling law for both passive (linear) and active (nonlinear) interferometers and identify the coefficient of proportionality. Whereas a highly nonclassical state is required to achieve optimal scaling for passive interferometry, a classical input state yields a 1/n scaling of phase uncertainty for active interferometry.

Optimal quantum trajectories for discrete measurements

Using the method of quantum trajectories we show that a known pure state can be optimally monitored through time when subject to a sequence of discrete measurements. By modifying the way that we extract information from the measurement apparatus we can minimize the average algorithmic information of the measurement record, without changing the unconditional evolution of the measured system. We define an optimal measurement scheme as one which has the lowest average algorithmic information allowed. We also show how it is possible to extract information about system operator averages from the measurement records and their probabilities. The optimal measurement scheme, in the limit of weak coupling, determines the statistics of the variance of the measured variable directly. We discuss the relevance of such measurements for recent experiments in quantum optics.

A Bayesian approach to fuzzy hypotheses testing for the estimation of optimal age for vaccination against measles

Fuzzy Bayesian tests were performed to evaluate whether the mother`s seroprevalence and children`s seroconversion to measles vaccine could be considered as ""high"" or ""low"". The results of the tests were aggregated into a fuzzy rule-based model structure, which would allow an expert to influence the model results. The linguistic model was developed considering four input variables. As the model output, we obtain the recommended age-specific vaccine coverage. The inputs of the fuzzy rules are fuzzy sets and the outputs are constant functions, performing the simplest Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model. This fuzzy approach is compared to a classical one, where the classical Bayes test was performed. Although the fuzzy and classical performances were similar, the fuzzy approach was more detailed and revealed important differences. In addition to taking into account subjective information in the form of fuzzy hypotheses it can be intuitively grasped by the decision maker. Finally, we show that the Bayesian test of fuzzy hypotheses is an interesting approach from the theoretical point of view, in the sense that it combines two complementary areas of investigation, normally seen as competitive. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A decision support system to facilitate management of patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding

Objective: To develop a model to predict the bleeding source and identify the cohort amongst patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) who require urgent intervention, including endoscopy. Patients with acute GIB, an unpredictable event, are most commonly evaluated and managed by non-gastroenterologists. Rapid and consistently reliable risk stratification of patients with acute GIB for urgent endoscopy may potentially improve outcomes amongst such patients by targeting scarce health-care resources to those who need it the most. Design and methods: Using ICD-9 codes for acute GIB, 189 patients with acute GIB and all. available data variables required to develop and test models were identified from a hospital medical records database. Data on 122 patients was utilized for development of the model and on 67 patients utilized to perform comparative analysis of the models. Clinical data such as presenting signs and symptoms, demographic data, presence of co-morbidities, laboratory data and corresponding endoscopic diagnosis and outcomes were collected. Clinical data and endoscopic diagnosis collected for each patient was utilized to retrospectively ascertain optimal management for each patient. Clinical presentations and corresponding treatment was utilized as training examples. Eight mathematical models including artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor, linear discriminant analysis (LDA), shrunken centroid (SC), random forest (RF), logistic regression, and boosting were trained and tested. The performance of these models was compared using standard statistical analysis and ROC curves. Results: Overall the random forest model best predicted the source, need for resuscitation, and disposition with accuracies of approximately 80% or higher (accuracy for endoscopy was greater than 75%). The area under ROC curve for RF was greater than 0.85, indicating excellent performance by the random forest model Conclusion: While most mathematical models are effective as a decision support system for evaluation and management of patients with acute GIB, in our testing, the RF model consistently demonstrated the best performance. Amongst patients presenting with acute GIB, mathematical models may facilitate the identification of the source of GIB, need for intervention and allow optimization of care and healthcare resource allocation; these however require further validation. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tooth Tissue Engineering: Optimal Dental Stem Cell Harvest Based on Tooth Development

Our long-term objective is to devise reliable methods to generate biological replacement teeth exhibiting the physical properties and functions of naturally formed human teeth. Previously, we demonstrated the successful use of tissue engineering approaches to generate small, bioengineered tooth crowns from harvested pig and rat postnatal dental stem cells (DSCs). To facilitate characterizations of human DSCs, we have developed a novel radiographic staging system to accurately correlate human third molar tooth developmental stage with anticipated harvested DSC yield. Our results demonstrated that DSC yields were higher in less developed teeth (Stages 1 and 2), and lower in more developed teeth (Stages 3, 4, and 5). The greatest cell yields and colony-forming units (CFUs) capability was obtained from Stages 1 and 2 tooth dental pulp. We conclude that radiographic developmental staging can be used to accurately assess the utility of harvested human teeth for future dental tissue engineering applications.

Modelling basin level allocation of water in the Murray-Darling Basin in a world of uncertainty, Murray-Darling Program Working Papers WPM05-1, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, 8 February 2005

Abstract: The Murray-Darling Basin comprises over 1 million km2; it lies within four states and one territory; and over 12, 800 GL of irrigation water is used to produce over 40% of the nation's gross value of agricultural production. This production is used by a diverse collection of some-times mutually exclusive commodities (e.g. pasture; stone fruit; grapes; cotton and field crops). The supply of water for irrigation is subject to climatic and policy uncertainty. Variable inflows mean that water property rights do not provide a guaranteed supply. With increasing public scrutiny and environmental issues facing irrigators, greater pressure is being placed on this finite resource. The uncertainty of the water supply, water quality (salinity), combined with where water is utilised, while attempting to maximising return for investment makes for an interesting research field. The utilisation and comparison of a GAMS and Excel based modelling approach has been used to ask: where should we allocate water?; amongst what commodities?; and how does this affect both the quantity of water and the quality of water along the Murray-Darling river system?

Effect of PTK/ZK on the Angiogenic Switch in Head and Neck Tumors

Transformation of small avascular masses of tumor cells into rapidly progressive cancers is triggered by the angiogenic switch, a process that involves vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) signaling. We have shown that VEGF enhances the survival and angiogenic potential of endothelial cells by activating the Bcl-2-CXCL8 signaling axis. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of a small-molecule inhibitor of VEGF receptors (PTK/ZK) on the initial stages of head and neck tumor angiogenesis. In vitro, PTK/ZK blocked head and neck tumor cell (OSCC3 or UM-SCC-17B)-induced Bcl-2 and CXCL8 expression in endothelial cells. Oral administration of PTK/ZK decreased xenograft head and neck tumor microvessel density, and inhibited Bcl-2 and CXCL8 expression in tumor-associated endothelial cells. Analysis of these data demonstrates that PTK/ZK blocks downstream targets of VEGF signaling in endothelial cells, and suggests that PTK/ZK may inhibit the angiogenic switch in head and neck tumors. Abbreviations: HDMEC, human dermal microvascular endothelial cells; VEGF, vascular endothelial growth factor; CXCL8, CXC ligand-8; PTK/ZK, PTK787/ZK222584.