A Bayesian changepoint analysis on spatio-temporal point processes

Changepoint analysis is a well established area of statistical research, but in the context of spatio-temporal point processes it is as yet relatively unexplored. Some substantial differences with regard to standard changepoint analysis have to be taken into account: firstly, at every time point the datum is an irregular pattern of points; secondly, in real situations issues of spatial dependence between points and temporal dependence within time segments raise. Our motivating example consists of data concerning the monitoring and recovery of radioactive particles from Sandside beach, North of Scotland; there have been two major changes in the equipment used to detect the particles, representing known potential changepoints in the number of retrieved particles. In addition, offshore particle retrieval campaigns are believed may reduce the particle intensity onshore with an unknown temporal lag; in this latter case, the problem concerns multiple unknown changepoints. We therefore propose a Bayesian approach for detecting multiple changepoints in the intensity function of a spatio-temporal point process, allowing for spatial and temporal dependence within segments. We use Log-Gaussian Cox Processes, a very flexible class of models suitable for environmental applications that can be implemented using integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA), a computationally efficient alternative to Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods for approximating the posterior distribution of the parameters. Once the posterior curve is obtained, we propose a few methods for detecting significant change points. We present a simulation study, which consists in generating spatio-temporal point pattern series under several scenarios; the performance of the methods is assessed in terms of type I and II errors, detected changepoint locations and accuracy of the segment intensity estimates. We finally apply the above methods to the motivating dataset and find good and sensible results about the presence and quality of changes in the process.

Influence of micro-site conditions and environmental gradients on tree-ring based climate reconstructions

Tree-ring chronologies are a powerful natural archive to reconstruct summer temperature variations of the late Holocene with an annual resolution. To develop these long-term proxy records tree-ring series are commonly extended back in time by combining samples from living trees with relict dead material preserved onshore or in lakes. Former studies showed that low frequency variations in such reconstructions can be biased if the relict and recent material is from different origins. A detailed analysis of the influence of various ecological (micro-) habitats representing the recent part is required to estimate potential errors in temperature estimates. The application of collective detrending methods, that comprise absolute growth rates, can produce errors in climate reconstructions and results in an underestimation of past temperatures. The appearance of these kind of micro-site effects is a wide-spread phenomenon that takes place all over Fennoscandia. Future research in this key region for dendroclimatology should take this issue into account. Especially the higher climate response at the lakeshore site is interesting to achieve smaller uncertainties when a tree-ring series is transformed to temperature anomalies. For new composite chronologies the main aim should be to minimize potential biases and this includes also micro-site effects.

Influenza dei parametri idrogeologici nei processi di contaminazione del sottosuolo imputabili a rilasci accidentali di idrocarburi

Il presente lavoro di tesi si propone di esaminare i processi di contaminazione del suolo e delle acque sotterranee conseguenti ad un fenomeno di “oil spill”: con tale termine si vuole intendere un fenomeno di rilascio accidentale di sostanze chimiche, come il benzene, dovuto al danneggiamento di lunghe condotte onshore realizzate per trasferire, tali sostanze, anche per distanze di centinaia di chilometri. Sebbene le basse frequenze incidentali confermino che il trasporto in condotta rappresenta la modalità di movimentazione via terra più sicura per fluidi chimici, bisogna tuttavia tener presente che i quantitativi di sostanze che possono essere rilasciate da questi impianti sono molto elevati.In questo lavoro, si è partiti con l’esaminare un caso studio riportato in letteratura, relativo alla valutazione quantitativa del rischio ambientale legato a fenomeni di oil spill da condotte onshore [Bonvicini et al., 2014]. Si è considerato, in particolare, un singolo tratto di una lunga condotta industriale, in corrispondenza del quale si è ipotizzato il verificarsi di una rottura, con conseguente rilascio di contaminante nel sottosuolo. L’impianto in questione è finalizzato al trasporto di benzene (LNAPL), idrocarburo aromatico cancerogeno, fortemente pericoloso per l’ambiente e per l’uomo.

Layer-cake, anoxia, and other myths: A new look at the Devonian-Mississippian Bakken Formation Reservoir, Williston Basin, North Dakota

The Upper Devonian-Mississippian Bakken Formation in the Williston Basin is one of the most prolific onshore petroleum systems in the continental U.S., consisting of a middle carbonate-siliciclastic member sandwiched between two organic-rich units, the Lower and Upper Bakken shales. Dr. Egenhoff discusses the formation’s surprising departures from standard stratigraphy models and depositional models which contribute to its unique characteristics.

Kuroshio Intrusion and the Circulation in the South China Sea

The Princeton Ocean Model is used to study the circulation in the South China Sea (SCS) and its seasonal transition. Kuroshio enters ( leaves) the SCS through the southern ( northern) portion of the Luzon Strait. The annually averaged net volume flux through the Luzon Strait is similar to2 Sv into the SCS with seasonal reversals. The inflow season is from May to January with the maximum intrusion of Kuroshio water reaching the western SCS during fall in compensation of summertime surface offshore transport associated with coastal upwelling. From February to April the net transport reverses from the SCS to the Pacific. The intruded Kuroshio often forms an anticyclonic current loop west of the Luzon Strait. The current loop separates near the Dongsha Islands with the northward branch continuously feeding the South China Sea Warm Current (SCSWC) near the shelf break and the westward branch becoming the South China Sea Branch of Kuroshio on the slope, which is most apparent in the fall. The SCSWC appears from December to February on the seaward side of the shelf break, flowing eastward against the prevailing wind. Diagnosis shows that the onshore Ekman transport due to northeasterly monsoon generates upwelling when moving upslope, and the particular distributions of the density and sea level associated with the cross shelf motion supports the SCSWC.

A Model Study of the Circulation in the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) and Its Adjacent Coastal Waters: 2. Sensitivity Experiments

The Princeton Ocean Model is used to study the circulation in the Pear River Estuary (PRE) and the adjacent coastal waters in the winter and summer seasons. Wong et al. [2003] compares the simulation results with the in situ measurements collected during the Pearl River Estuary Pollution Project (PREPP). In this paper, sensitivity experiments are carried out to examine the plume and the associated frontal dynamics in response to seasonal discharges and monsoon winds. During the winter, convergence between the seaward spreading plume water and the saline coastal water sets up a salinity front that aligns from the northeast to the southwest inside the PRE. During the summer the plume water fills the PRE at the surface and spreads eastward in the coastal waters in response to the prevailing southwesterly monsoon. The overall alignment of the plume is from the northwest to the southeast. The subsurface front is similar to that in the winter and summer except that the summer front is closer to the mouth and the winter front closer to the head of the estuary. Inside the PRE, bottom flows are always toward the head of the estuary, attributed to the density gradient associated with the plume front. In contrast, bottom flows in the shelf change from offshore in winter to onshore in summer, reflecting respectively the wintertime downwelling and summertime upwelling. Wind also plays an essential role in controlling the plume at the surface. An easterly wind drives the plume westward regardless winter or summer. The eastward spreading of the plume during the summer can be attributed to the southerly component of the wind. On the other hand, the surface area of the plume is positively proportional to the amount of discharge.

(Table 1) 40Ar-39Ar incremental heating ages for ODP Hole 163-988A basalt and plagioclase

Results of 40Ar-39Ar Ar dating constrain the age of the submerged volcanic succession, part of the seaward-dipping reflector sequence of the Southeast Greenland volcanic rifted margin, recovered during Leg 163. At the 63ºN drilling transect, the fully normally magnetized volcanic units at Holes 989B (Unit 1) and 990A (Units 1 and 2) are dated at 57.1 ± 1.3 Ma and 55.6 ± 0.6 Ma, respectively. This correlates with a common magnetochron, C25n. The underlying, reversely magnetized lavas at Hole 990A (Units 3-13) yield an average age of 55.8 ± 0.7 Ma and may correlate with C25r. The argon data, however, are also consistent with eruption of the lavas at Site 990 during the very earliest portion of C24. If so, the normally polarized units have to be correlated to a cryptochron (e.g., C24r-11 at ~55.57 Ma). The lavas at Holes 989B and 990A have typical oceanic compositions, implying that final plate separation between Greenland and northwest Europe took place at ~56 Ma. The age for Hole 989B lava is younger than expected from the seismic interpretations, posing questions about the structural evolution of the margin. An age of 49.6 ± 0.2 Ma for the basaltic lava at Site 988 (~66ºN) points to the importance of postbreakup tholeiitic magmatism at the rifted margin. Together with results from Leg 152, a virtually complete time frame for ~12 m.y. of pre-, syn-, and postbreakup volcanism during rifted margin evolution in Southeast Greenland can now be assembled. This time frame includes continental type volcanism at ~61-60 Ma, synbreakup volcanism beginning at ~57 Ma, and postbreakup volcanism at ~49.6 Ma. These discrete time windows coincide with distinct periods of tholeiitic magmatism from the onshore East Greenland Tertiary Igneous Province and is consistent with discrete mantle-melting events triggered by plume arrival (~61-60 Ma) under central Greenland, continental breakup (~57-54 Ma), and passage of the plume axis beneath the East Greenland rifted margin after breakup (~50-49 Ma), respectively.

(Table 2) Sorting and mineral composition of sediment obtained near Sylt, North Sea

Carefully selected sea bottom surface fine sand samples were studied from two sand ribbons normal to the shore. Possible sediment transport along these sand ribbons were investigated from interpretation of the sediment patterns. Simple grain size parameters were obtained and results of heavy mineral and feldspar analysis were compared. On one ribbon offshore sediment movement was indicated, while conversely on the other, onshore movement is proposed.

Grain-size analyses and bulk chemistry determined in surface sediment samples along the Chilean continental margin in the Southeast Pacific Ocean

Physical, chemical, and mineralogical properties of a set of surface sediment samples collected along the Chilean continental slope (21-44°S) are used to characterise present-day sedimentation patterns and sediment provenance on the Chilean margin. Despite the presence of several exceptional latitudinal gradients in relief, oceanography, tectonic evolution, volcanic activity and onshore geology, the present-day input of terrigenous sediments to the Chilean continental margin appears to be mainly controlled by precipitation gradients, and source-rock composition in the hinterland. General trends in grain size denote a southward decrease in median grain-size of the terrigenous (Corganic, CaCO3 and Opal-free) fraction, which is interpreted as a shift from aeolian to fluvial sedimentation. This interpretation is supported by previous observations of southward increasing bulk sedimentation rates. North-south trends in sediment bulk chemistry are best recognised in the iron (Fe) and titanium (Ti) vs. potassium (K) and aluminium (Al) ratios of the sediments that most likely reflect the contribution of source rocks from the Andean volcanic arc. These ratios are high in the northernmost part, abruptly decrease at 25°S, and then more or less constantly increase southwards to a maximum at ~40°S.

Chemistry of orthopyroxenes, clinopyroxenes, and spinels of ODP Hole 103-637A peridotites

Mineral compositions of the plagioclase-bearing ultramafic tectonites dredged and cored seaward of the continental slope of the Galicia margin (Leg 103, Site 637) were compared to mineral compositions from onshore low-pressure ultramafic bodies (southeastern Ronda, western Pyrenees, and Lizard Point), on the basis of standardized (30-s counting time) probe analyses. The comparison was extended to some plagioclase-free harzburgites related to ophiolites (Santa Elena in Costa Rica, north Oman, and the Humboldt body in New Caledonia) on the basis of new analytical data and data from the literature. The behavior of Cr, Na, Al, Mg, Fe, Ni, and Ti in olivine, pyroxenes, and spinel was examined in order to distinguish between the effects of partial melting and mineral facies change, from the spinel to plagioclase stability fields. The peridotite from the Galicia margin appears slightly depleted in major incompatible elements and experienced a minor partial melting. However, it experienced large scale but heterogeneous recrystallization in the plagioclase field. These features are very similar to those observed in Ronda, whereas in the western Pyrenees the minerals exemplify a very minor partial-melting event (or none at all) and have retained compositions corresponding to those of the relatively high-pressure Seiland sub facies. The minerals from the Lizard Point peridotite have characteristics (low Mg/(Mg + Fe) ratio; high Cr/(Cr + Al) ratio in spinel) more related to cumulate from a differentiated tholeiitic melt than related to ophiolitic tectonite. Diffusion profiles of Al and Cr across pyroxenes and spinel show that recrystallization features occurred at different speeds or temperatures in the different bodies. The pyroxenes from Ronda would have experienced recrystallization about 14 times faster than the peridotite from the Galicia margin. The western Pyrenean lherzolites also experienced rapid recrystallization; nevertheless, because they are of a different mineral facies, the data are not directly comparable to that from Ronda and Galicia. The harzburgite at Santa Elena as well as a xenolith from alkali basalt exemplify rapid cooling characterized by very weak re-equilibration. Recrystallization speed is related to emplacement speed in the present geological environment. The slow-rising Galicia margin peridotite was emplaced by thinning of the lithospheric subcontinental mantle near an incipient mid-oceanic ridge. The fast-rising peridotites from Ronda and the western Pyrenees were hot diapirs emplaced from the asthenosphere along transcurrent faults, possibly related to the opening of the Atlantic Ocean.

Analysis of Recent benthic foraminiferal assemblages from the oxygen minimum zone of the Pakistan continental margin

Live (Rose Bengal stained) and dead benthic foraminiferal communities (hard-shelled species only) from the Pakistan continental margin oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) have been studied in order to determine the relation between faunal composition and the oxygenation of bottom waters. During R.R.S. Charles Darwin Cruises 145 and 146 (12 March to May 28 2003), 11 multicores were taken on the continental margin off Karachi, Pakistan. Two transects were sampled, constituting a composite bathymetric profile from 136 m (above the OMZ in spring 2003) down to 1870 m water depth. Cores (surface area 25.5 cm2) were processed as follows: for stations situated above, and in the upper part of the OMZ, sediment slices were taken for the 0-0.5 and 0.5-1 cm intervals, and then in 1 cm intervals down to 10 cm. For the lower part of the OMZ, the second centimetre was also sliced in half-centimetre intervals. Each sample was stored in 10 % borax-buffered formalin for further processing. Onshore, the samples were wet sieved over 63 µm, 150 µm and 300 µm sieves and the residues were stained for one week in ethanol with Rose Bengal. After staining, the residue was washed again. The stained faunas were picked wet in three granulometric fractions (63-150 µm, 150-300 µm and >300 µm), down to 10 cm depth. To gain more insight into the population dynamics we investigated the dead (unstained) foraminifera in the 2-3 cm level for the fractions 150-300 µm and >300 µm. The fractions >300 µm and 150-300 µm show nearly the same faunal distribution and therefore the results are presented here for both fractions combined (i.e. the >150 µm fraction). Live foraminiferal densities show a clear maximum in the first half centimetre of the sediment; only few specimens are found down to 4 cm depth. The faunas exhibit a clear zonation across the Pakistan margin OMZ. Down to 500 m water depth, Uvigerina ex gr. U. semiornata and Bolivina aff. B. dilatata dominate the assemblages. These taxa are largely restricted to the upper cm of the sediment. They are adapted to the very low bottom-water oxygen values (ab. 0.1 ml/l in the OMZ core) and the extremely high input of organic carbon on the upper continental slope. The lower part of the OMZ is characterized by cosmopolitan faunas, containing also some taxa that in other areas have been described in deep infaunal microhabitats.

A multi-proxy investigation of sediment core GeoB7165-1 and AMS 14C dating points from sediment cores off Conceptión (~ 36°S)

A high-resolution sea surface temperature and paleoproductivity reconstruction on a sedimentary record collected at 36°S off central-south Chile (GeoB 7165-1, 36°33'S, 73°40'W, 797 m water depth, core length 750 cm) indicates that paleoceanographic conditions changed abruptly between 18 and 17 ka. Comparative analysis of several cores along the Chilean continental margin (30°-41°S) suggests that the onset and the pattern of deglacial warming was not uniform off central-south Chile due to the progressive southward migration of the Southern Westerlies and local variations in upwelling. Marine productivity augmented rather abruptly at 13-14 ka, well after the oceanographic changes.We suggest that the late deglacial increase in paleoproductivity off central-south Chile reflects the onset of an active upwelling system bringing nutrient-rich, oxygen-poor Equatorial SubsurfaceWater to the euphotic zone, and a relatively higher nutrient load of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. During the Last Glacial Maximum, when the Southern Westerlies were located further north, productivity off central-south Chile, in contrast to off northern Chile, was reduced due to direct onshore-blowing winds that prevented coastal upwelling and export production.

Reconstruction of the provenance and distribution of terrigenous sediments off NE South America over the last 30ka

We investigate the redistribution of terrigenous materials in the northeastern (NE) South American continental margin during slowdown events of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The compilation of stratigraphic data from 108 marine sediment cores collected across the western tropical Atlantic shows an extreme rise in sedimentation rates off the Parnaíba River mouth (about 2°S) during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1, 18-15 ka). Sediment core GeoB16206-1, raised offshore the Parnaíba River mouth, documents relatively constant 143Nd/144Nd values (expressed as epsilonNd(0)) throughout the last 30 ka. Whereas the homogeneous epsilonNd(0) data support the input of fluvial sediments by the Parnaíba River from the same source area directly onshore, the increases in Fe/Ca, Al/Si and Rb/Sr during HS1 indicate a marked intensification of fluvial erosion in the Parnaíba River drainage basin. In contrast, the epsilonNd(0) values from sediment core GeoB16224-1 collected off French Guiana (about 7°N) suggest Amazon-sourced materials within the last 30 ka. We attribute the extremely high volume of terrigenous sediments deposited offshore the Parnaíba River mouth during HS1 to (i) an enhanced precipitation in the catchment region and (ii) a reduced North Brazil Current, which are both associated with a weakened AMOC.