Käyttöpääoman ennustaminen kysyntäennusteen avulla

Työn tavoite on selvittää erilaisia käyttöpääoman ennustusmalleja, jotka pohjautuvat kysyntäennusteeseen. Tavoitteena on esittää malleja niin pitkän kuin lyhyenkin aikavälin ennustamiseen. Pitkällä aikavälillä mallien on tarkoitus ennustaa yrityksissä sitoutuvan käyttöpääoman kokonaistarvetta, kun taas lyhyen aikavälin malleilla pureudutaan käyttöpääomaerien (lopputuotevarasto ja myyntisaamiset) ennustamiseen tuotekohtaisesti. Työssä pyritään myös vastaamaan, miksi käyttöpääomaa kannattaa ennustaa ja miten sen hallintaa voidaan tehostaa. Työ on toteutettu kirjallisuuskatsauksena, mitä on elävöitetty laskuesimerkein. Laskuesimerkkien tarkoitus on antaa lukijalle kuva käyttöpääoman ennustamisen todellisista mahdollisuuksista, jotta työ ei jäisi pelkäksi sanahelinäksi. Työssä esitetyt ennustusmallit on valittu matemaattisen yksinkertaisuutensa ehdolla, jotta niiden käyttäminen yritysmaailmassa olisi mahdollista. Käyttöpääomatarpeen ennustamisen suurimpana haasteena voidaan pitää kysyntäennusteen luotettavuutta. Vuositasolla käyttöpääomatarpeen keskimääräinen osuus suhteessa liikevaihtoon on helpohko ennustaa liiketoiminnan pysyessä melko vakiona. Tarve voi kuitenkin vaihdella hyvin paljon kysynnän vaihdellessa kuukausi-, viikko- ja päivätasolla. Jos kysyntäennustetta saadaan tarkennettua, lopputuotevaraston kokoa ja siihen sitoutuvaa käyttöpääomaa on mahdollista pienentää, koska varmuusvaraston määrittelyssä käytettävä hajonta pienenee. Myyntisaamisten osalta lähitulevaisuudessa sitoutuvaan käyttöpääomaan vaikuttaa eniten asiakaskohtainen maksukäyttäytyminen, koska myyntisaamisiin vaikuttava kysyntä on suurimmalta osaltaan jo toteutunut.

Assessing the resilience of water supply systems in Oman

Water systems in the Sultanate of Oman are inevitably exposed to varied threats and hazards due to both natural and man-made hazards. Natural disasters, especially tropical cyclone Gonu in 2007, cause immense damage to water supply systems in Oman. At the same time water loss from leaks is a major operational problem. This research developed an integrated approach to identify and rank the risks to the water sources, transmission pipelines and distribution networks in Oman and suggests appropriate mitigation measures. The system resilience was evaluated and an emergency response plan for the water supplies developed. The methodology involved mining the data held by the water supply utility for risk and resilience determination and operational data to support calculations of non-revenue water. Risk factors were identified, ranked and scored at a stakeholder workshop and the operational information required was principally gathered from interviews. Finally, an emergency response plan was developed by evaluating the risk and resilience factors. The risk analysis and assessment used a Coarse Risk Analysis (CRA) approach and risk scores were generated using a simple risk matrix based on WHO recommendations. The likelihoods and consequences of a wide range of hazardous events were identified through a key workshop and subsequent questionnaires. The thesis proposes a method of translating the detailed risk evaluations into resilience scores through a methodology used in transportation networks. A water audit indicated that the percentage of NRW in Oman is greater than 35% which is similar to other Gulf countries but high internationally. The principal strategy for managing NRW used in the research was the AWWA water audit method which includes free to use software and was found to be easy to apply in Oman. The research showed that risks to the main desalination processes can be controlled but the risk due to feed water quality might remain high even after implementing mitigation measures because the intake is close to an oil port with a significant risk of oil contamination and algal blooms. The most severe risks to transmission mains were found to be associated with pipe rather than pump failure. The systems in Oman were found to be moderately resilient, the resilience of desalination plants reasonably high but the transmission mains and pumping stations are very vulnerable. The integrated strategy developed in this study has a wide applicability, particularly in the Gulf area, which may have risks from exceptional events and will be experiencing NRW. Other developing countries may also experience such risks but with different magnitudes and the risk evaluation tables could provide a useful format for further work.

Oman pelikokemuksensa herra? Pelaajan valta, toimijuus ja vallan illuusio The Walking Dead -videopelissä

Tutkielma tarkastelee zombiteemaisessa The Walking Dead -videopelissä (Telltale Games 2012) ilmeneviä pelaajan toimijuuden ja vallan ulottuvuuksia sekä niiden merkitystä pelikokemuksille pelianalyysin avulla. Keskiössä ovat pelikokemuksen aikana syntyvät kuvitteellisen vallan tuntemukset. Tutkielman tarkoituksena on selvittää, mikä merkitys pelissä tehdyillä valinnoilla ja niiden seurauksilla voi pelikokemukselle olla sekä lisäksi pohtia erilaisia konkreettisen vaikuttamisen keinoja. Tutkielma tarkastelee lisäksi niitä tapoja, joilla peli itse osallistuu rakentamaan ja vahvistamaan pelaajan tuntemuksia pelitarinan ja -kokemuksen hallinnasta. Tutkielman aineistona toimivat videopeli sekä Telltale Community -verkkokeskustelupalstalta kerätyt kommentit, jotka avartavat käsiteltyjä näkökulmia sekä tuovat esille pelaajien kokemuksia. Kommenttien perusteella tehty analyysi on laadullista, eikä pyri kattavaan otantaan. Videopeli on aina jossain määrin ennalta rakennettu kokonaisuus, mutta sen tuottamia kokemuksia ei voida koskaan täysin säädellä ennalta. Vaikka pelin valinta- ja etenemismahdollisuudet ovat tarkoin rajattuja, voi peli synnyttää pelaajissa vahvoja vallassa olemisen tunteita sekä uniikkeja pelikokemuksia, joihin muilla pelaajilla ei ole pääsyä. Huomio ei kohdistu yksittäisen pelaajan kokemuksiin vaan nimenomaan siihen, millä kaikilla mahdollisilla tavoilla peli voidaan kokea. Pelissä koetuista valtatuntemuksista tulee kuvitteellisia vasta silloin, jos pelaaja tulee tietoiseksi toimijuutensa rajallisuudesta tai vaikutusvaltansa pinnallisuudesta. Illuusion rikkoutuminen vähentää tunnetta vaikutusvallasta, muttei poista pelikokemuksen ainutlaatuisuutta. Pelaajalla on vapaus päättää pelaamisestaan, tekemistään tulkinnoista sekä siitä, mitkä pelin tapahtumat ovat hänelle tärkeitä. Pelaaja on oman pelikokemuksensa herra, koska hän voi antaa pelin tapahtumille haluamansa merkitykset.

Population genetic of three species of Clupeidae family Sardinella sindensis, Sardinella albella, Dussumieria acuta in the Persian Gulf & Oman Sea

Sardines and other Microfilidae have very important ecological role in marine ecosystems because they are first consumers in marine food chain and they are the main food of valuable species as tuna. So decries in their population will decline fishing of these spices. There are 10 genus of Clupeidae in south of Iran and Sardinella is the one of the most abundant of them. In this study we investigated about morphological and genetically differences in population of 3 species: Sardinella sindensis, Sardinella abella, Dussomieria acuta. About 65 specimens of Sardinella sindensis, 61 specimens of Sardinella albella and 63 specimens of, Dussomieria acuta from three regions of their distribution: Jask (Oman Sea), Qeshm (Hormoz) and Lengeh (Pearsian Gulf) have been collected. Morphological research of their characters and statistical studies were done. To determine the genetically structure of specie's population we sequenced 500 bp of mitochondrial control region. Genetical studies determine meaningful difference in alleles and heterozigosity frequency of Sardinella sindensis. This must be the result of divergence in population of this species. Morphological investigation of Sardinella albella shows the meaningful difference. But detailed studies diffused it. Genetical studies show a meaningful variance in allele and heterosigosity frequency. This may be an aspect of sardine tendency to live in estuaries. Morphological research of Dussomieria acuta in Jask and Lengeh show a meaningful variance in these regions. Such a situation might be result of Monsoon, upwelling and better weather which occur in Oman Sea in spite of Persian Gulf.

Using otolith morphometric and morphology characteristics to identify carangids species in the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea

In a survey on 524 specimens from 18 different species belonging to the Carangidae family collected from The Persian Gulf, otolithes (Sagittae) are extracted from under gills region. After washing, their morphometric parameters measured. These parameters are otolith length, width, weight and length of antirostrum, width and length of rostrum, width in right and left sagittae. In addition to the otolith outline, mode position and mode opening of the Sulcus acusticus was examined. Data indicate correlation between most of the parameters (P<0.05). This shows correlation between total length and weight of fish, otolith length and weight of otolith in most of specimens. There was correlation in most species between otolith length and total length of studies fishes, otolith weight and weight of fish, otolith weight and total length, otolith length and weight of fish, length of right and left otolith. Otolith had very diveres outline types (fusiform, sagitiform, lanceolated, iregular). There were most of variety about status dentates in dorsal margin and ventral margin of the otolith. As result of this analysis it is possible to identify species from the Carangidae family by the otolith characters.

Determination of biodiversity and spatial and temporal distribution pattern of demersal fishes in the Oman Sea

In this project, have been studied to determine the appropriate model to spatial, temporal and diversity of demersal fishes in the Sea of Oman, including Trichiuridae, Nemipteridae, Haemulidae, Arridae, Synodontidae, Batoidfishes, Carangidae, Scianidae, Carchariniformes and Serranidae. This research became operational from catch data during 2003 to 2013 (in 2007, due to the lack of ship failed). Processing and calculations was evaluated by using the software Excel, SPSS, Arc GIS and table curve 3D highest biomass and abundance was showed in strata A and C and 10-30 m depth layers was showed the best condition biomass. In other words, highest biomass was showed in the eastern region in the Oman Sea than the central and western regions. Batoidfishes and Trichiuridae had the highest biomass .Depth factors was showed a significant correlation with the biomass. Scianidae, Serranidae and Haemulidae were showed a large decline. Synodontidae was showed a very large increase. The largest of Shannon index belong to central and western region of the Oman Sea. The highest Shannon index was showed 10-20 and 50-100 m, respectively. The Distribution maps based on the biomass was analyzed by using Arc GIS software. So that were identified in the first time in a ten-year period and carefully catch stations any economic of aquatic group. In conclusion, the depth can be found in the pattern of distribution, abundance and diversity of fish from away the beach so that follow specific pattern.

A survey on diversity and distribution of crabs in inter tidal and sub tidal shore of the Sistan and Baloochestan Province (Oman sea)

This project was done for identifying and survey on distribution and diversity of true crabs in inter tidal and sub tidal zones of the Gulf of Oman (Sistan and Baluchistan province) during two year from 2009 to 2010. Specimens of inter tidal zones were carried out at 10 stations and 8 stations from sub tidal. The specimens were collected by hand and dip-net from inter tidal and by trawl net from sub tidal regions, preserved in 70% alcohol and carried to the laboratory. A total of 37 species belonged to 17 families from inter tidal and 23 species belonged to 9 families from sub tidal were identified. Of which 54 species were identified up to species level. 2 species from Matutidae, 1 species from Eriphiidae, Menippidae, Pseudoziidae, Plagusidae, Varunidae, Camptandriidae, Dromiidae and Dorippidae, 2 species from Oziidae, 3 species from Epialtidae, 2 species from Majidae, 4 species from Pilumnidae, 12 species from Portunidae, 6 species from Xanthidae, 2 species from Grapsidae, 3 species from Dotillidae, 3 species from Macrophthalmidae, 3 species from Ocypodidae, 3 species from Calappidae, 2 species from Parthenopidae and 1 species from Galenidae were identified. All specimens are deposited in the Zoological Museum, University of Tehran (ZUTC). The results of the present study revealed that family Portunidae with 6 species from inter tidal and 9 species from sub tidal regions have the highest species richness among the 22 families. Maximum similarity (Sorenson's Index) was obtained among the stations Breis, Lipar, Pozm and Gordim, and minimum was obtained among the stations Chazire-Kharchang with Pasabandar, Beris, Lipar, Daria-Bozorg, Pozm and Gordim in intertidal regions. In sub tidal regions maximum similarity (Sorenson's Index) was obtained among the stations Pasa bandar with Berisand minimum was obtained among the stations Govatr with Ramin and Gordim, Ramin with Pozm. Also maximum species richness was observed at Tiss in inter tidal and Chabahar in sub tidal stations, whereas minimum was obtained at Beris, Pozm, Gordim and Lipar in inter tidal and Govatr and Pozm in sub tidal stations. Family Ocypodidae in inter tidal and Portunidae in sub tidal regions have the highest distribution. In all of the species length and Breadth of carapace showed significant relation.

Pressure ulcer management in Oman: nurses’ knowledge and views

Background: Pressure ulcers (PrUs) have a significant impact on health system expenditure and patient’s quality of life. It is a global problem. Many studies were undertaken in regard to PrU prevention and management. In Oman, no studies have been conducted to investigate nurses’ knowledge on prevention and management of PrUs. The purpose of this descriptive sequential explanatory mixed-method study was to explore the nurses’ level of knowledge in relation to prevention and management of PrUs in Oman. Methods: A mixed method design was used and the study was conducted over two Phases. In Phase I, a questionnaire was developed to explore nurses’ knowledge on PrU, policy, and resources. The main section of the questionnaire was the Pieper-Zulkowski Pressure Ulcer knowledge test (PZ-PUKT) which tests the knowledge on PrU. Another two sections were developed including questions about wound policy and resources available for PrU prevention and management in Oman. The questionnaire was distributed to nurses who were working in surgical, medical, orthopaedic, CCU, and ICU wards/units in seven hospitals. In Phase II study, semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with 16 of the questionnaire respondents. Interviews took approximately 30 minutes, were recorded and transcribed verbatim. Qualitative data were analysed using the Knowledge, Attitudes and Practice (KAP) model as the a priori framework. Results: In Phase I, 478 questionnaires were analysed. The knowledge test results showed the overall mean percent score for correctly answered questions was 51% suggesting a low level of knowledge. There was a significant relationship between nurses’ knowledge and age (P=0.001) and between knowledge and years of experience (P=0.001) with knowledge increasing with age and years of experience. In Phase II, four themes were identified from the interviews: knowledge, attitude, and practice (framework themes) and perception of role. Findings indicated positive and negative attitudes towards the care of PrUs. Some nurses stated feeling rewarded when they see wounds improving while others said they could not work with patients independently because they lacked the knowledge and the skills needed. There was variation in the management of PrU between hospitals. Both studies indicated that the wound management policy did not include enough information to guide nurses. Conclusion: Overall the nurses’ level of knowledge on PrU was relatively low. Most nurses were not familiar with wound management policy or different PrU prevention and management strategies. Nurses are aware of the risk of PrUs and try their best to manage them with the available resources however more training is required.

Effects of charcoal-enriched goat manure on soil fertility parameters and growth of pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum L.) in a sandy soil from northern Oman

The effect of charcoal feeding on manure quality and its subsequent application to enhance soil productivity has received little attention. The objectives of the present study therefore were to investigate the effects of (i) charcoal feeding on manure composition, and (ii) charcoal-enriched manure application on soil fertility parameters and growth of millet (Pennisetum glaucum L.). To this end, two experiments were conducted: First, a goat feeding trial where goats were fed increasing levels of activated charcoal (AC; 0, 3, 5, 7, and 9% of total ration); second, a greenhouse pot experiment using the manure from the feeding trial as an amendment for a sandy soil from northern Oman. We measured manure C, N, P, and K concentrations, soil fertility parameters and microbial biomass indices, as well as plant yield and nutrient concentrations. Manure C concentration increased significantly (P<0.001) from 45.2% (0% AC) to 60.2% (9% AC) with increasing dietary AC, whereas manure N, P, and K concentrations decreased (P<0.001) from 0% AC (N: 2.5%, P: 1.5%, K: 0.8%) to 9% AC (N: 1.7%, P: 0.8%, K: 0.4%). Soil organic carbon, pH, and microbial biomass N showed a response to AC-enriched manure. Yield of millet decreased slightly with AC enrichment, whereas K uptake was improved with increasing AC. We conclude that AC effects on manure quality and soil productivity depend on dosage of manure and AC, properties of AC, trial duration, and soil type.

Bridging the gap between citizens and local authorities via e-government

Among the many promises of the digital revolution is its potential to strengthen social equality and make governments more responsive to the needs of their citizens. E-government is the use of information and communications technologies (ICTs) to transform governments by making them more accessible, effective, accountable, and making the most of the new technologies to deliver better quality and more accessible public services. This paper provides an overview of recent literature addressing e-government issues, and includes a discussion of its implications at the municipal level. It also covers Australian experiences in establishing and managing e-government services.

United Arab Emirates

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is part of the geographic region known as the Middle East. With a land mass of 82,000 square kilometres, predominantly desert and mountains it is bordered by Oman, Saudi Arabia and the Arabian Gulf. The UAE is strategically located due to its proximity to other oil rich Middle Eastern countries such as Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. The UAE was formed from a federation of seven emirates (Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah, Ras Al Khaimah, Ajman, Fujuriah, and Um Al Quain) in December 1971 (Ras Al Khaimah did not join the federation until 1972) (Heard-bey, 2004, 370). Abu Dhabi is the political capital, and the richest emirate; while Dubai is the commercial centre. The majority of the population of the various Emirates live along the coast line as sources of fresh water often heavily influenced the site of different settlements. Unlike some near neighbours (Iran and Iraq) the UAE has not undergone any significant political instability since it was formed in 1971. Due to this early British influences the UAE has had very strong political and economic ties with first Britain, and, more recently, the United States of America (Rugh, 2007). Until the economic production of oil in the early 1960’s the different Emirates had survived on a mixture of primary industry (dates), farming (goats and camels), pearling and subsidies from Britain (Davidson 2005, 3; Hvit, 2007, 565) Along with near neighbours Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, the UAE is part of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), a trading bloc. (Hellyer, 2001, 166-168).

The role of randomly mixed-layered chlorite/smectite in the transformation of smectite to chlorite

Vesicular and groundmass phyllosilicates in a hydrothermally altered basalt from the Point Sal ophiolite, California, have been studied using transmission electron microscopy (TEM). Pore-filling phyllosilicates are texturally characterized as having coherent, relatively thick and defect-free crystals of chlorite (14 Å) with occasional 24-Å periodicities. Groundmass phyllosilicates are texturally characterized as 1) randomly oriented crystals up to 200 Å in width and 2) larger, more coherent crystals up to 1000 Å in width. Small crystallites contain predominantly 14-Å layers with some 24-Å units. Large crystals show randomly interlayered chlorite/smectite (C/S), with approximately 50% chlorite on average. Adjacent smectite-like layers are not uncommon in the groundmass phyllosilicates. Electron microprobe analyses show that Fe/Mg ratios of both groundmass and vesicular phyllosilicates are fairly constant. Termination of brucite-like interlayers has been identified in some of the TEM images. The transformation mechanisms represented by these layer terminations are 1) growth of a brucite-like interlayer within smectite interlayer regions and 2) the dissolution and reprecipitation of elements to form chlorite layers. Both mechanisms require an increase in volume as smectite transforms to chlorite. The data, combined with that from previously published reports, suggest that randomly interlayered C/S is a metastable phase formed in microenvironments with low water/rock ratios. Chlorite forms in microenvironments in the same sample dominated by higher water/rock ratios. The relatively constant number of Mg's in the structure (Mg#) of both structures indicates that in both microenvironments the bulk rock composition has influence over the composition of phyllosilicates.

Paleomagnetic data support Early Permian age for the Abor Volcanics in the lower Siang Valley, NE India; significance for Gondwana-related break-up models

Confusion exists as to the age of the Abor Volcanics of NE India. Some consider the unit to have been emplaced in the Early Permian, others the Early Eocene, a difference of ∼230 million years. The divergence in opinion is significant because fundamentally different models explaining the geotectonic evolution of India depend on the age designation of the unit. Paleomagnetic data reported here from several exposures in the type locality of the formation in the lower Siang Valley indicate that steep dipping primary magnetizations (mean = 72.7 ± 6.2°, equating to a paleo-latitude of 58.1°) are recorded in the formation. These are only consistent with the unit being of Permian age, possibly Artinskian based on a magnetostratigraphic argument. Plate tectonic models for this time consistently show the NE corner of the sub-continent >50°S; in the Early Eocene it was just north of the equator, which would have resulted in the unit recording shallow directions. The mean declination is counter-clockwise rotated by ∼94°, around half of which can be related to the motion of the Indian block; the remainder is likely due local Himalayan-age thrusting in the Eastern Syntaxis. Several workers have correlated the Abor Volcanics with broadly coeval mafic volcanic suites in Oman, NE Pakistan–NW India and southern Tibet–Nepal, which developed in response to the Cimmerian block peeling-off eastern Gondwana in the Early-Middle Permian, but we believe there are problems with this model. Instead, we suggest that the Abor basalts relate to India–Antarctica/India–Australia extension that was happening at about the same time. Such an explanation best accommodates the relevant stratigraphical and structural data (present-day position within the Himalayan thrust stack), as well as the plate tectonic model for Permian eastern Gondwana.

Factors contributing to crashes among young drivers

Young drivers are the group of drivers most likely to crash. There are a number of factors that contribute to the high crash risk experienced by these drivers. While some of these factors are intrinsic to the young driver, such as their age, gender or driving skill, others relate to social factors and when and how often they drive. This article reviews the factors that affect the risk of young drivers crashing to enable a fuller understanding of why this risk is so high in order to assist in developing effective countermeasures.

Graduated driver licensing : an international review

Graduated driver licensing (GDL) aims to gradually increase the exposure of new drivers to more complex driving situations and typically consists of learner, provisional and open licence phases. The first phase, the learner licence, is designed to allow novice drivers to obtain practical driving experience in lower risk situations. The learner licence can delay licensure, encourage novice drivers to learn under supervision, mandate the number of hours of practice required to progress to the next phase and encourage parental involvement. The second phase, the provisional licence, establishes various driving restrictions and thereby reduces exposure to situations of higher risk, such as driving at night, with passengers or after drinking alcohol. Parental involvement with a GDL system appears essential in helping novices obtain sufficient practice and in enforcing compliance with restrictions once the new driver obtains a provisional licence. Given the significant number of young drivers involved in crashes within Oman, GDL is one countermeasure that may be beneficial in reducing crash risk and involvement for this group.