An idealized study of coupled atmosphere-ocean 4D-Var in the presence of model error

Atmosphere only and ocean only variational data assimilation (DA) schemes are able to use window lengths that are optimal for the error growth rate, non-linearity and observation density of the respective systems. Typical window lengths are 6-12 hours for the atmosphere and 2-10 days for the ocean. However, in the implementation of coupled DA schemes it has been necessary to match the window length of the ocean to that of the atmosphere, which may potentially sacrifice the accuracy of the ocean analysis in order to provide a more balanced coupled state. This paper investigates how extending the window length in the presence of model error affects both the analysis of the coupled state and the initialized forecast when using coupled DA with differing degrees of coupling. Results are illustrated using an idealized single column model of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. It is found that the analysis error from an uncoupled DA scheme can be smaller than that from a coupled analysis at the initial time, due to faster error growth in the coupled system. However, this does not necessarily lead to a more accurate forecast due to imbalances in the coupled state. Instead coupled DA is more able to update the initial state to reduce the impact of the model error on the accuracy of the forecast. The effect of model error is potentially most detrimental in the weakly coupled formulation due to the inconsistency between the coupled model used in the outer loop and uncoupled models used in the inner loop.

Imminent ocean acidification in the Arctic projected with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model

Ocean acidification from the uptake of anthropogenic carbon is simulated for the industrial period and IPCC SRES emission scenarios A2 and B1 with a global coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Earlier studies identified seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite, a mineral phase of calcium carbonate, as a key variable governing impacts on corals and other shell-forming organisms. Globally in the A2 scenario, water saturated by more than 300%, considered suitable for coral growth, vanishes by 2070 AD (CO2≈630 ppm), and the ocean volume fraction occupied by saturated water decreases from 42% to 25% over this century. The largest simulated pH changes worldwide occur in Arctic surface waters, where hydrogen ion concentration increases by up to 185% (ΔpH=−0.45). Projected climate change amplifies the decrease in Arctic surface mean saturation and pH by more than 20%, mainly due to freshening and increased carbon uptake in response to sea ice retreat. Modeled saturation compares well with observation-based estimates along an Arctic transect and simulated changes have been corrected for remaining model-data differences in this region. Aragonite undersaturation in Arctic surface waters is projected to occur locally within a decade and to become more widespread as atmospheric CO2 continues to grow. The results imply that surface waters in the Arctic Ocean will become corrosive to aragonite, with potentially large implications for the marine ecosystem, if anthropogenic carbon emissions are not reduced and atmospheric CO2 not kept below 450 ppm.

Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An  ∼ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon–climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

Observation of manganese nodules and crusts in the Blake Plateau area

Visual observations of manganese deposits on the Blake plateau from a manned submersible indicate that the occurrence of manganese as nodules, slabs, or pavement may be related to localized environmental conditions. Manganese is concentrated at the crests of sand waves and, in areas of gentle slope, grades locally from nodules to solid pavement.

Escape performance of temperate king scallop, Pecten maximus under ocean warming and acidification

Among bivalves, scallops are exceptional due to their capacity to escape from predators by swimming which is provided by rapid and strong claps that are produced by the phasic muscle interspersed with tonic muscle contractions. Based on the concept of oxygen and capacity-limited thermal tolerance, the following hypothesis was tested: ocean warming and acidification (OWA) would induce disturbances in aerobic metabolic scope and extracellular acid-case status and impair swimming performance in temperate scallops. Following long-term incubation under near-future OWA scenarios [20 vs. 10 °C (control) and 0.112 kPa CO2 (hypercapnia) vs. 0.040 kPa CO2 (normocapnic control)], the clapping performance and metabolic rates (MR) were measured in resting (RMR) and fatigued (maximum MR) king scallops, Pecten maximus, from Roscoff, France. Exposure to OA, either alone or combined with warming, left MR and swimming parameters such as the total number of claps and clapping forces virtually unchanged. Only the duration of the escape response was affected by OA which caused earlier exhaustion in hyper- than in normocapnic scallops at 10 °C. While maximum MR was unaffected, warm exposure increased RMR in both normocapnic and hypercapnic P. maximus resulting in similar Q 10 values of ~2.2. The increased costs of maintenance and the observation of strongly reduced haemolymph PO2 levels indicate that at 20 °C scallops have reached the upper thermal pejus range with unbalanced capacities for aerobic energy metabolism. As a consequence, warming to 20 °C decreased mean phasic force during escape performance until fatigue. The observed prolonged recovery time in warm incubated scallops might be a consequence of elevated metabolic costs at reduced oxygen availability in the warmth.

Sea ice limit in the Southern Ocean 1950/51

Die zwei Südwinter und einen Südsommer umspannende Expedition erbrachte so umfangreiche Ergebnisse, daß mit deren Veröffentlichung erst in Jahren gerechnet werden kann. Aus der Fülle der Beobachtungen und Messungen seien herausgegriffen: der wechselnde Verlauf der Packeisgrenze der Antarktis.

Organic matter composition of Cretaceous sediments of the central Pacific Ocean

Complete records of organic-carbon-rich Cretaceous strata were continuouslycored on the flanks of the Mid-Pacific Mountains and southern Hess Rise in the central North Pacific Ocean during DSDP Leg 62. Organic-carbon-rich laminated silicified limestones were deposited in the western Mid-Pacific Mountains during the early Aptian, a time when that region was south of the equator and considerably shallower than at present. Organic-carbon-rich, laminated limestone on southern Hess Rise overlies volcanic basement and includes 136 m of stratigraphic section of late Albian to early Cenomanian age. This limestone unit was deposited rapidly as Hess Rise was passing under the equatorial high-productivity zone and was subsiding from shallow to intermediate depths. The association of volcanogenic components with organic-carbon-rich strata on Hess Rise in the Mid-Pacific Mountains is striking and suggests that there was a coincidence of mid-plate volcanic activity and the production and accumulation of organic matter at intermediate water depths in the tropical Pacific Ocean during the middle Cretaceous. Pyrolysis assays and analyses of extractable hydrocarbons indicate that the organic matter in the limestone on Hess Rise is composed mainly of lipid-rich kerogen derived from aquatic marine organisms and bacteria. Limestones from the Mid-Pacific Mountains generally contain low ratios of pyrolytic hydrocarbons to organic carbon and low hydrogen indices, suggesting that the organic matter may contain a significant proportion of land-derived material, possibly derived from numerous volcanic islands that must have existed before the area subsided. The organic carbon in all samples analyzed is isotopically light (d13C -24 to -29 per mil) relative to most modern rine organic carbon, and the lightest carbon is also the most lipid-rich. There is a positive linear correlation between sulfur and organic carbon in samples from Hess Rise and from the Mid-Pacific Mountains. The slopes and intercepts of C-S regression lines however, are different for each site and all are different from regression lines for samples from modern anoxic marine sediments and from Black Sea cores. The organic-carbon-rich limestones on Hess Rise, the Mid-Pacific Mountains, and other plateaus and seamounts in the Pacific Ocean are not synchronous but do occur within the same general middle Cretaceous time period as organic-carbon-rich lithofacies elsewhere in the world ocean, particularly in the Atlantic Ocean. Strata of equivalent age in the deep basins of the Pacific Ocean are not rich in organic carbon, and were deposited in oxygenated environments. This observation, together with the evidence that the plateau sites were considerably shallower and closse to the equator during the middle Creataceous suggests that local tectonic and hydrographic conditions may have resulted in high surface-water productivity and the preservation of organic matter in an oxygen-deficient environment where an expanded mid-water oxygen minimum developed and impinged on elevated platforms and seamounts.

Constraints on the magnitude and patterns of ocean cooling at the Last Glacial Maximum - Supplementary material

Observation-based reconstructions of sea surface temperature from relatively stable periods in the past, such as the Last Glacial Maximum, represent an important means of constraining climate sensitivity and evaluating model simulations. The first quantitative global reconstruction of sea surface temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum was developed by the Climate Long-Range Investigation, Mapping and Prediction (CLIMAP) project in the 1970s and 1980s. Since that time, several shortcomings of that earlier effort have become apparent. Here we present an updated synthesis of sea surface temperatures during the Last Glacial Maximum, rigorously defined as the period between 23 and 19 thousand years before present, from the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean Surface (MARGO) project. We integrate microfossil and geochemical reconstructions of surface temperatures and include assessments of the reliability of individual records. Our reconstruction reveals the presence of large longitudinal gradients in sea surface temperature in all of the ocean basins, in contrast to the simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum climate available at present.

Particle flux studies of sediment traps from the northern and equatorial Indian Ocean

The Asian monsoon system governs seasonality and fundamental environmental characteristics in the study area from which two distinct peculiarities are most notable: upwelling and convective mixing in the Arabian Sea and low surface salinity and stratification in the Bay of Bengal due to high riverine input and monsoonal precipitation. The respective oceanography sets the framework for nutrient availability and productivity. Upwelling ensures high nitrate concentration with temporal/spatial Si limitation; freshwater-induced stratification leads to reduced nitrogen input from the subsurface but Si enrichment in surface waters. Ultimately, both environments support high abundance of diatoms, which play a central role in the export of organic matter. It is speculated that, additional to eddy pumping, nitrogen fixation is a source of N in stratified waters and contributes to the low-d15N signal in sinking particles formed under riverine impact. Organic carbon fluxes are best correlated to opal but not to carbonate, which is explained by low foraminiferal carbonate fluxes within the river-impacted systems. This observation points to the necessity of differentiating between carbonate sources for carbon flux modeling. As evident from a compilation of previously published and new data on labile organic matter composition (amino acids and carbohydrates), organic matter fluxes are mainly driven by direct input from marine production, except the site off Pakistan where sedimentary input of (marine) organic matter is dominant during the NE monsoon. The explanation of apparently different organic carbon export efficiency calls for further investigations of, for example, food web structure and water column processes.

The CMCC Eddy-permitting Global Ocean Physical Reanalysis (C-GLORS v5, 1980-2014), links to NetCDF files

The CMCC Global Ocean Physical Reanalysis System (C-GLORS) is used to simulate the state of the ocean in the last decades. It consists of a variational data assimilation system (OceanVar), capable of assimilating all in-situ observations along with altimetry data, and a forecast step performed by the ocean model NEMO coupled with the LIM2 sea-ice model. KEY STRENGTHS: - Data are available for a large number of ocean parameters - An extensive validation has been conducted and is freely available - The reanalysis is performed at high resolution (1/4 degree) and spans the last 30 years KEY LIMITATIONS: - Quality may be discontinuos and depend on observation coverage - Uncertainty estimates are simply derived through verification skill scores

Three species distribution models for the marine diatom Fragilariopsis kerguelensis of the Southern Ocean, links to NetCDF files

Fragilariopsis kerguelensis, a dominant diatom species throughout the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, is coined to be one of the main drivers of the biological silicate pump. Here, we study the distribution of this important species and expected consequences of climate change upon it, using correlative species distribution modeling and publicly available presence-only data. As experience with SDM is scarce for marine phytoplankton, this also serves as a pilot study for this organism group. We used the maximum entropy method to calculate distribution models for the diatom F. kerguelensis based on yearly and monthly environmental data (sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate and silicate concentrations). Observation data were harvested from GBIF and the Global Diatom Database, and for further analyses also from the Hustedt Diatom Collection (BRM). The models were projected on current yearly and seasonal environmental data to study current distribution and its seasonality. Furthermore, we projected the seasonal model on future environmental data obtained from climate models for the year 2100. Projected on current yearly averaged environmental data, all models showed similar distribution patterns for F. kerguelensis. The monthly model showed seasonality, for example, a shift of the southern distribution boundary toward the north in the winter. Projections on future scenarios resulted in a moderately to negligibly shrinking distribution area and a change in seasonality. We found a substantial bias in the publicly available observation datasets, which could be reduced by additional observation records we obtained from the Hustedt Diatom Collection. Present-day distribution patterns inferred from the models coincided well with background knowledge and previous reports about F. kerguelensis distribution, showing that maximum entropy-based distribution models are suitable to map distribution patterns for oceanic planktonic organisms. Our scenario projections indicate moderate effects of climate change upon the biogeography of F. kerguelensis.

Magnetic observation of ODP Site 152-919 in the Irminger Basin, North Atlantic

Component natural remanent magnetizations derived from u-channel and 1-qcm discrete samples from ODP Site 919 (Irminger Basin) indicate the existence of four intervals of negative inclinations in the upper Brunhes Chronozone. According to the age model based on planktic oxygen isotope data, these "excursional" intervals occur in sediments deposited during the following time intervals: 32-34 ka, 39-41 ka, 180-188 ka and 205-225 ka. These time intervals correspond to polarity excursions detected elsewhere, known as Mono Lake, Laschamp, Iceland Basin and Pringle Falls. The isotope-based age model is supported by the normalized remanence (paleointensity) record that can be correlated to other calibrated paleointensity records for the 0-500 ka interval, such as that from ODP Site 983. For the intervals associated with the Mono Lake and Laschamp excursions, virtual geomagnetic poles (VGPs) reach equatorial latitudes and mid-southerly latitudes, respectively. For intervals associated with the Iceland Basin and Pringle Falls excursions, repeated excursions of VGPs to high southerly latitudes indicate rapid directional swings rather than a single short-lived polarity reversal. The directional instability associated with polarity excursions is not often recorded, probably due to smoothing of the sedimentary record by the process of detrital remanence (DRM) acquisition.