Efficacy of New Generation Antidepressants: Differences Seem Illusory

Background: Recently, Cipriani and colleagues examined the relative efficacy of 12 new-generation antidepressants on major depression using network meta-analytic methods. They found that some of these medications outperformed others in patient response to treatment. However, several methodological criticisms have been raised about network meta-analysis and Cipriani’s analysis in particular which creates the concern that the stated superiority of some antidepressants relative to others may be unwarranted. Materials and Methods: A Monte Carlo simulation was conducted which involved replicating Cipriani’s network metaanalysis under the null hypothesis (i.e., no true differences between antidepressants). The following simulation strategy was implemented: (1) 1000 simulations were generated under the null hypothesis (i.e., under the assumption that there were no differences among the 12 antidepressants), (2) each of the 1000 simulations were network meta-analyzed, and (3) the total number of false positive results from the network meta-analyses were calculated. Findings: Greater than 7 times out of 10, the network meta-analysis resulted in one or more comparisons that indicated the superiority of at least one antidepressant when no such true differences among them existed. Interpretation: Based on our simulation study, the results indicated that under identical conditions to those of the 117 RCTs with 236 treatment arms contained in Cipriani et al.’s meta-analysis, one or more false claims about the relative efficacy of antidepressants will be made over 70% of the time. As others have shown as well, there is little evidence in these trials that any antidepressant is more effective than another. The tendency of network meta-analyses to generate false positive results should be considered when conducting multiple comparison analyses.

Acoustic Detection of Organic Enrichment in Sediments at a Salmon Farm Is Confirmed by Independent Groundtruthing Methods

Acoustic backscatter contrast in depositional sediments under salmon farm cages in the Bay of Fundy, Canada, was correlated with localized changes in (unknown) sediment geotechnical properties, as indicated by 4 independent measures of organic enrichment. Sediment total sulfides and redox potentials, enzyme hydrolyzable amino acids, sediment profile imaging and macrofaunal samples, taken at mid-cage positions, each rejected the null hypothesis that salmon cage footprints, defined acoustically as high backscatter areas, were indistinguishable from nearby reference areas. Acoustic backscatter imaging appears capable of mapping organic enrichment in depositional sediments caused by excessive inputs of salmon farm wastes associated with intensive aquaculture.

Detecting determinism with improved sensitivity in time series: Rank-based nonlinear predictability score

The rank-based nonlinear predictability score was recently introduced as a test for determinism in point processes. We here adapt this measure to time series sampled from time-continuous flows. We use noisy Lorenz signals to compare this approach against a classical amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. Both measures show an almost identical robustness against Gaussian white noise. In contrast, when the amplitude distribution of the noise has a narrower central peak and heavier tails than the normal distribution, the rank-based nonlinear predictability score outperforms the amplitude-based nonlinear prediction error. For this type of noise, the nonlinear predictability score has a higher sensitivity for deterministic structure in noisy signals. It also yields a higher statistical power in a surrogate test of the null hypothesis of linear stochastic correlated signals. We show the high relevance of this improved performance in an application to electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings from epilepsy patients. Here the nonlinear predictability score again appears of higher sensitivity to nonrandomness. Importantly, it yields an improved contrast between signals recorded from brain areas where the first ictal EEG signal changes were detected (focal EEG signals) versus signals recorded from brain areas that were not involved at seizure onset (nonfocal EEG signals).

Endovascular treatment for acute ischemic stroke patients: implications and interpretation of IMS III, MR RESCUE, and SYNTHESIS EXPANSION trials: A report from the Working Group of International Congress of Interventional Neurology

OBJECTIVE The results of Interventional Management of Stroke (IMS) III, Magnetic Resonance and REcanalization of Stroke Clots Using Embolectomy (MR RESCUE), and SYNTHESIS EXPANSION trials are expected to affect the practice of endovascular treatment for acute ischemic stroke. The purpose of this report is to review the components of the designs and methods of these trials and to describe the influence of those components on the interpretation of trial results. METHODS A critical review of trial design and conduct of IMS III, MR RESCUE, and SYNTHESIS EXPANSION is performed with emphasis on patient selection, shortcomings in procedural aspects, and methodology of data ascertainment and analysis. The influence of each component is estimated based on published literature including multicenter clinical trials reporting on endovascular treatment for acute ischemic stroke and myocardial infarction. RESULTS We critically examined the time interval between symptom onset and treatment and rates of angiographic recanalization to differentiate between "endovascular treatment" and "parameter optimized endovascular treatment" as it relates to the IMS III, MR RESCUE, and SYNTHESIS EXPANSION trials. All the three trials failed to effectively test "parameter optimized endovascular treatment" due to the delay between symptom onset and treatment and less than optimal rates of recanalization. In all the three trials, the magnitude of benefit with endovascular treatment required to reject the null hypothesis was larger than could be expected based on previous studies. The IMS III and SYNTHESIS EXPANSION trials demonstrated that rates of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhages subsequent to treatment are similar between IV thrombolytics and endovascular treatment in matched acute ischemic stroke patients. The trials also indirectly validated the superiority/equivalence of IV thrombolytics (compared with endovascular treatment) in patients with minor neurological deficits and those without large vessel occlusion on computed tomographic/magnetic resonance angiography. CONCLUSIONS The results do not support a large magnitude benefit of endovascular treatment in subjects randomized in all the three trials. The possibility that benefits of a smaller magnitude exist in certain patient populations cannot be excluded. Large magnitude benefits can be expected with implementation of "parameter optimized endovascular treatment" in patients with ischemic stroke who are candidates for IV thrombolytics.

BPA qualtitative and quantitative assessment associated with orthodontic bonding in vivo

OBJECTIVE To assess the in vivo amount of BPA released from a visible light-cured orthodontic adhesive, immediately after bracket bonding. METHODS 20 orthodontic patients were recruited after obtaining informed consent. All patients received 24 orthodontic brackets in both dental arches. In Group A (11 patients), 25 ml of tap water were used for mouth rinsing, whereas in Group B (9 patients) a simulated mouth rinse formulation was used: a mixture of 20 ml de-ionized water plus 5 ml absolute ethanol. Rinsing solutions were collected before, immediately after placing the orthodontic appliances and after washing out the oral cavity and were then stored in glass tubes. Rinsing was performed in a single phase for 60s with the entire volume of each liquid. The BPA analysis was performed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. RESULTS An increase in BPA concentration immediately after the 1st post-bonding rinse was observed, for both rinsing media, which was reduced after the 2nd post-bonding rinse. Water exhibited higher levels of BPA concentration than water/ethanol after 1st and 2nd post-bonding rinses. Two-way mixed Repeated Measures ANOVA showed that the primary null hypothesis declaring mean BPA concentration to be equal across rinsing medium and rinsing status was rejected (p-value <0.001). The main effects of the rinsing medium and status, as well as their interaction were found to be statistically significant (p-values 0.048, <0.001 and 0.011 respectively). SIGNIFICANCE A significant pattern of increase of BPA concentration, followed by a decrease that reached the initial values was observed. The amount of BPA was relatively low and far below the reference limits of tolerable daily intake.

Replications of fundamental research models in ultra high dilutions 1994 and 2015 - update on a bibliometric study

INTRODUCTION This paper focuses exclusively on experimental models with ultra high dilutions (i.e. beyond 10(-23)) that have been submitted to replication scrutiny. It updates previous surveys, considers suggestions made by the research community and compares the state of replication in 1994 with that in 2015. METHODS Following literature research, biochemical, immunological, botanical, cell biological and zoological studies on ultra high dilutions (potencies) were included. Reports were grouped into initial studies, laboratory-internal, multicentre and external replications. Repetition could yield either comparable, or zero, or opposite results. The null-hypothesis was that test and control groups would not be distinguishable (zero effect). RESULTS A total of 126 studies were found. From these, 28 were initial studies. When all 98 replicative studies were considered, 70.4% (i.e. 69) reported a result comparable to that of the initial study, 20.4% (20) zero effect and 9.2% (9) an opposite result. Both for the studies until 1994 and the studies 1995-2015 the null-hypothesis (dominance of zero results) should be rejected. Furthermore, the odds of finding a comparable result are generally higher than of finding an opposite result. Although this is true for all three types of replication studies, the fraction of comparable studies diminishes from laboratory-internal (total 82.9%) to multicentre (total 75%) to external (total 48.3%), while the fraction of opposite results was 4.9%, 10.7% and 13.8%. Furthermore, it became obvious that the probability of an external replication producing comparable results is bigger for models that had already been further scrutinized by the initial researchers. CONCLUSIONS We found 28 experimental models which underwent replication. In total, 24 models were replicated with comparable results, 12 models with zero effect, and 6 models with opposite results. Five models were externally reproduced with comparable results. We encourage further replications of studies in order to learn more about the model systems used.

CAD/CAM fabrication accuracy of long- vs. short-span implant-supported FDPs

OBJECTIVE To compare the precision of fit of long-span vs. short-span implant-supported screw-retained fixed dental prostheses (FDPs) made from computer-aided-design/computer-aided-manufactured (CAD/CAM) titanium and veneered with ceramic. The null hypothesis was that there is no difference in the vertical microgap between long-span and short-span FDPs. MATERIALS AND METHODS CAD/CAM titanium frameworks for an implant-supported maxillary FDP on implants with a flat platform were fabricated on one single master cast. Group A consisted of six 10-unit FDPs connected to six implants (FDI positions 15, 13, 11, 21, 23, 25) and group B of six 5-unit FDPs (three implants, FDI positions 21, 23, 25). The CAD/CAM system from Biodenta Swiss AG (Berneck, Switzerland) was used for digitizing (laser scanner) the master cast and anatomical CAD of each framework separately. The frameworks were milled (CAM) from a titanium grade V monobloc and veneered with porcelain. Median vertical distance between implant and FDP platforms from the non-tightened implants (one-screw test on implant 25) was calculated from mesial, buccal, and distal scanning electron microscope measurements. RESULTS All measurements showed values <40 μm. Total median vertical microgaps were 23 μm (range 2-38 μm) for group A and 7 μm (4-24 μm) for group B. The difference between the groups was statistically significant at implant 21 (P = 0.002; 97.5% CI -27.3 to -4.9) and insignificant at implant 23 (P = 0.093; -3.9 to 1.0). CONCLUSIONS CAD/CAM fabrication including laboratory scanning and porcelain firing was highly precise and reproducible for all long- and short-span FDPs. While all FDPs showed clinically acceptable values, the short-span FDPs were statistically more precise at the 5-unit span distance.

Detecting the signature of natural selection with microsatellites

Natural selection is one of the major factors in the evolution of all organisms. Detecting the signature of natural selection has been a central theme in evolutionary genetics. With the availability of microsatellite data, it is of interest to study how natural selection can be detected with microsatellites. ^ The overall aim of this research is to detect signatures of natural selection with data on genetic variation at microsatellite loci. The null hypothesis to be tested is the neutral mutation theory of molecular evolution, which states that different alleles at a locus have equivalent effects on fitness. Currently used tests of this hypothesis based on data on genetic polymorphism in natural populations presume that mutations at the loci follow the infinite allele/site models (IAM, ISM), in the sense that at each site at most only one mutation event is recorded, and each mutation leads to an allele not seen before in the population. Microsatellite loci, which are abundant in the genome, do not obey these mutation models, since the new alleles at such loci can be created either by contraction or expansion of tandem repeat sizes of core motifs. Since the current genome map is mainly composed of microsatellite loci and this class of loci is still most commonly studied in the context of human genome diversity, this research explores how the current test procedures for testing the neutral mutation hypothesis should be modified to take into account a generalized model of forward-backward stepwise mutations. In addition, recent literature also suggested that past demographic history of populations, presence of population substructure, and varying rates of mutations across loci all have confounding effects for detecting signatures of natural selection. ^ The effects of the stepwise mutation model and other confounding factors on detecting signature of natural selection are the main results of the research. ^

Efficient Unit Root Tests of real Exchange Rates in the Post-Bretton Woods Era

We apply the efficient unit-roots tests of Elliott, Rothenberg, and Stock (1996), and Elliott (1998) to twenty-one real exchange rates using monthly data of the G-7 countries from the post-Bretton Woods floating exchange rate period. Our results indicate that, for eighteen out of the twenty-one real exchange rates, the null hypothesis of a unit root can be rejected at the 10% significance level or better using the Elliot et al (1996) DF-GLS test. The unit-root null hypothesis is also rejected for one additional real exchange rate when we allow for one endogenously determined break in the time series of the real exchange rate as in Perron (1997). In all, we find favorable evidence to support long-run purchasing power parity in nineteen out of twenty-one real exchange rates. Second, we find no strong evidence to suggest that the use of non-U.S. dollar-based real exchange rates tend to produce more favorable result for long-run PPP than the use of U.S. dollar-based real exchange rates as Lothian (1998) has concluded.

Non-Parametric Tests of Real Exchange rates in the Post-Bretton Woods Era

This paper examines the mean-reverting property of real exchange rates. Earlier studies have generally not been able to reject the null hypothesis of a unit-root in real exchange rates, especially for the post-Bretton Woods floating period. The results imply that long-run purchasing power parity does not hold. More recent studies, especially those using panel unit-root tests, have found more favorable results, however. But, Karlsson and Löthgren (2000) and others have recently pointed out several potential pitfalls of panel unit-root tests. Thus, the panel unit-root test results are suggestive, but they are far from conclusive. Moreover, consistent individual country time series evidence that supports long-run purchasing power parity continues to be scarce. In this paper, we test for long memory using Lo's (1991) modified rescaled range test, and the rescaled variance test of Giraitis, Kokoszka, Leipus, and Teyssière (2003). Our testing procedure provides a non-parametric alternative to the parametric tests commonly used in this literature. Our data set consists of monthly observations from April 1973 to April 2001 of the G-7 countries in the OECD. Our two tests find conflicting results when we use U.S. dollar real exchange rates. However, when non-U.S. dollar real exchange rates are used, we find only two cases out of fifteen where the null hypothesis of an unit-root with short-term dependence can be rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis of long-term dependence using the modified rescaled range test, and only one case when using the rescaled variance test. Our results therefore provide a contrast to the recent favorable panel unit-root test results.

Effect of maternal weight status on the relationship between prenatal smoking and infant birth weight

The purpose of this study was to assess the effect of maternal pre-pregnancy weight status on the relationship between prenatal smoking and infant birth weight (IBW). Prenatal cigarette smoking and maternal weight exert opposing effects on IBW; smoking decreases birth weight while maternal pre-pregnancy weight is positively correlated with birth weight. As such, mutual effect modification may be sufficiently significant to alter the independent effects of these two birth weight correlates. Finding of such an effect has implications of prenatal smoking cessation education. Perception of risk is an important determinant of smoking cessation, and reduced or low birth weight (LBW) as a smoking-associated risk predominates prenatal smoking counseling and education. In a population such as the US, where obesity is becoming epidemic, particularly among minority and low-income groups, perception of risk may be lowered should increased maternal size attenuate the effect of smoking. Previous studies have not found a significant interaction effect of prenatal smoking and maternal pre-pregnancy weight on IBW; however, use of self-reported smoking status may have biased findings. Reliability of self-reported smoking status reported in the literature is variable, with deception rates ranging from a low of 5% to as high as 16%. This study, using data from a prenatal smoking cessation project, in which smoking status was validated by saliva cotinine, was an opportunity to assess effect modification of smoking and maternal weight using biochemically determined smoking status in lieu of self report. Stratified by saliva cotinine, 151 women from a prenatal smoking cessation cohort, who were 18 years and older and had full-term, singleton births, were included in this study. The effect of smoking in terms of mean birth weight across three levels of maternal pre-pregnancy weight was assessed by general linear modeling procedures, adjusting for other known correlates of IBW. Effect modification was marginally significant, p = .104, but only with control for differential effects among racial/ethnic groups. A smaller than planned sample of nonsmokers, or women who quit smoking during the pregnancy, prohibited rejection of the null hypothesis of no difference in the effect of smoking across levels of pre-pregnancy weight. ^

Mathematical and empirical examinations of some epidemiological procedures

In epidemiology literature, it is often required to investigate the relationships between means where the levels of experiment are actually monotone sets forming a partition on the range of sampling values. With this need, the analysis of these group means is generally performed using classical analysis of variance (ANOVA). However, this method has never been challenged. In this dissertation, we will formulate and present our examination of its validity. First, the classical assumptions of normality and constant variance are not always true. Second, under the null hypothesis of equal means, the test statistic for the classical ANOVA technique is still valid. Third, when the hypothesis of equal means is rejected, the classical analysis techniques for hypotheses of contrasts are not valid. Fourth, under the alternative hypothesis, we can show that the monotone property of levels leads to the conclusion that the means are monotone. Fifth, we propose an appropriate method for handing the data in this situation. ^

Assessment of US Air Force student pilots with intermittent monofixation syndrome on a non-stereoptic dependent flight maneuver in pilot training

The United States Air Force School of Aerospace Medicine (USAFSAM) and Aeromedical Consult Service (ACS) have developed waiver criteria for pilots with subtle substandard depth perception. This is to allow United States Air Force (USAF) pilots with mild depth perception deficiency to continue flying duties while limiting the risk to flight safety and ensuring the availability of costly human resources. From 1999 to 2005, 166 aviators were given waivers for intermittent monofixation syndrome (IMFS). Of these, 96 were student pilots who performed slightly worse at stereoptic dependent flight maneuvers than student pilots (8,907) with normal depth perception (Lowry, 2006).^ This study's purpose is to evaluate the performance of the extended-trail maneuver, a non-stereoptic dependent flying maneuver, as executed by a cohort of 12 United States Air Force student pilots with intermittent monofixation syndrome versus the cohort of 100 student pilots with normal depth perception. These subjects are extracted from the cohorts examined by Lowry (2006) and the null hypothesis predicts no statistical difference in the performance of the non-stereoptic dependant flight maneuver extended-trail between student pilots with intermittent monofixation syndrome and those without the condition. ^

Relationship between parental feeding practices and weight status in a lower socioeconomic pre-school population

High prevalence of overweight and obesity among preschool children in the low income population is consistently documented in research with one of every seven low-income, preschool-aged children classified as obese. Parental feeding practices have the potential to be contributing factors to the obesity epidemic. However, the impact of parental feeding practices on obesity in preschool age children has not been well explored. The purpose of this study was to determine relationships between the parental feeding practices of using dessert, sweets or candy as a reward for finishing foods, restricting dessert if the child does not finish their plate at dinner, asking the child to consume everything on their plate at dinner, and having family dinners to obesity in low income, preschool age children.^ A cross-sectional secondary data analysis was completed using the STATA 11 statistical software. Descriptive statistics were completed to summarize demographic and BMI data of participants, as well as parental feeding behavior variables. Pearson’s correlation was implemented to determine a correlation between parental feeding behavior variables and BMI z scores. Predictive relationships between the variables were explored through multivariable linear regression analysis. Regression analyses were also completed factoring in the confounders of gender, age, and ethnicity.^ Results revealed (1) no significant correlations or predictive trends between the use of rewards, forced consumption, or family dinner and BMI in low income preschool age children, and (2) a significant negative correlation and predictive trend between restriction of desserts and BMI in low income preschool age children. Since the analysis supported the null hypothesis for the practices of reward use, forced consumption, and family dinner, these practices are not considered risk factors for obese level BMIs. The inverse association found for practice of restriction and BMI suggests it is unnecessary to discourage parents from using restriction. Limitations of the study included the sample size, reliability of the answers provided on the Healthy Home Survey by participant guardians, and generalizability of the sample to the larger population.^

Seasonal aspects of leukemia

An investigation of (a) month/season-of-birth as a risk factor and (b) month/season-of-treatment initation as a prognostic factor in acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) in children, 0-15 years of age, was conducted. The study population used was that of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program of the National Cancer Institute and included children diagnosed and treated for ALL from 1973-1986. Two separate sets of analyses using different exclusion criteria led to similar results. Specifically, the inability to reject the null hypothesis of no significant difference in the variation of monthly/seasonal incidence rates among children residing within the 10 SEER sites using either cosinor analysis or one-way analysis of variance. No association was established between month/season of treatment initiation and survival in ALL among children using either Kaplan-Meier or cosinor analysis. In separate Kaplan-Meier analyses, age, gender, and treatment type were each found to be significant univariate prognostic factors for survival, however. ^