929 resultados para Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS)
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BACKGROUND This paper discusses whether baseline demographic, socio-economic, health variables, length of follow-up and method of contacting the participants predict non-response to the invitation for a second assessment of lifestyle factors and body weight in the European multi-center EPIC-PANACEA study. METHODS Over 500.000 participants from several centers in ten European countries recruited between 1992 and 2000 were contacted 2-11 years later to update data on lifestyle and body weight. Length of follow-up as well as the method of approaching differed between the collaborating study centers. Non-responders were compared with responders using multivariate logistic regression analyses. RESULTS Overall response for the second assessment was high (81.6%). Compared to postal surveys, centers where the participants completed the questionnaire by phone attained a higher response. Response was also high in centers with a short follow-up period. Non-response was higher in participants who were male (odds ratio 1.09 (confidence interval 1.07; 1.11), aged under 40 years (1.96 (1.90; 2.02), living alone (1.40 (1.37; 1.43), less educated (1.35 (1.12; 1.19), of poorer health (1.33 (1.27; 1.39), reporting an unhealthy lifestyle and who had either a low (<18.5 kg/m2, 1.16 (1.09; 1.23)) or a high BMI (>25, 1.08 (1.06; 1.10); especially ≥30 kg/m2, 1.26 (1.23; 1.29)). CONCLUSIONS Cohort studies may enhance cohort maintenance by paying particular attention to the subgroups that are most unlikely to respond and by an active recruitment strategy using telephone interviews.
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BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption leading to morbidity and mortality affects HIV-infected individuals. Here, we aimed to study self-reported alcohol consumption and to determine its association with adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and HIV surrogate markers. METHODS: Cross-sectional data on daily alcohol consumption from August 2005 to August 2007 were analysed and categorized according to the World Health Organization definition (light, moderate or severe health risk). Multivariate logistic regression models and Pearson's chi(2) statistics were used to test the influence of alcohol use on endpoints. RESULTS: Of 6,323 individuals, 52.3% consumed alcohol less than once a week in the past 6 months. Alcohol intake was deemed light in 39.9%, moderate in 5.0% and severe in 2.8%. Higher alcohol consumption was significantly associated with older age, less education, injection drug use, being in a drug maintenance programme, psychiatric treatment, hepatitis C virus coinfection and with a longer time since diagnosis of HIV. Lower alcohol consumption was found in males, non-Caucasians, individuals currently on ART and those with more ART experience. In patients on ART (n=4,519), missed doses and alcohol consumption were positively correlated (P<0.001). Severe alcohol consumers, who were pretreated with ART, were more often off treatment despite having CD4+ T-cell count <200 cells/microl; however, severe alcohol consumption per se did not delay starting ART. In treated individuals, alcohol consumption was not associated with worse HIV surrogate markers. CONCLUSIONS: Higher alcohol consumption in HIV-infected individuals was associated with several psychosocial and demographic factors, non-adherence to ART and, in pretreated individuals, being off treatment despite low CD4+ T-cell counts.
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Visceral leishmaniasis, or kala-azar, is recognised as a serious emerging public health problem in India. In this study, environmental parameters, such as land surface temperature (LST) and renormalised difference vegetation indices (RDVI), were used to delineate the association between environmental variables and Phlebotomus argentipes abundance in a representative endemic region of Bihar, India. The adult P. argentipes were collected between September 2009-February 2010 using the hand-held aspirator technique. The distribution of P. argentipes was analysed with the LST and RDVI of the peak and lean seasons. The association between environmental covariates and P. argentipes density was analysed a multivariate linear regression model. The sandfly density at its maximum in September, whereas the minimum density was recorded in January. The regression model indicated that the season, minimum LST, mean LST and mean RDVI were the best environmental covariates for the P. argentipes distribution. The final model indicated that nearly 74% of the variance of sandfly density could be explained by these environmental covariates. This approach might be useful for mapping and predicting the distribution of P. argentipes, which may help the health agencies that are involved in the kala-azar control programme focus on high-risk areas.
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Rationale: Children with atopic diseases in early life are frequently found with positive IgE tests to nuts, without a history of previous ingestion. We aimed to identify risk factors for reactions to nuts at their first introduction. Methods: A detailed retrospective case note and database analysis was performed. Inclusion criteria were: patients aged 3 to 16 years who had had a standardized food challenge to peanut and/or tree nuts due to primary sensitisation to the nut (positive specific IgE or SPT). A detailed assessment was performed of factors relating to food challenge outcome with univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results: There were 98 food challenges (48% peanut, 52% tree nut) with 29 positive, 67 negative and 2 inconclusive challenges. A positive maternal history and a specific IgE > 2 kU/l were strongly associated with a significantly increased risk of a positive food challenge (OR 3.54; 95% CI 1.28 to 9.81; and OR 4.82; 95% CI 1.57 to 14.86; respectively). There was no significant association between the type of nut, age, presence of other food allergies, paternal or sibling atopic history, other atopic conditions or severity of previous reaction to other foods. Conclusions: We have demonstrated an association between the presence of a maternal atopic history and a specific IgE > 2 kU/l, and a significant increase in the likelihood of a positive food challenge in children with primary sensitisation to nuts. Although requiring further prospective validation we suggest these easily identifiable components should be considered when deciding the need for a nut challenge.
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BACKGROUND: Anemia is a common condition in CKD that has been identified as a cardiovascular (CV) risk factor in end-stage renal disease, constituting a predictor of low survival. The aim of this study was to define the onset of anemia of renal origin and its association with the evolution of kidney disease and clinical outcomes in stage 3 CKD (CKD-3). METHODS: This epidemiological, prospective, multicenter, 3-year study included 439 CKD-3 patients. The origin of nephropathy and comorbidity (Charlson score: 3.2) were recorded. The clinical characteristics of patients that developed anemia according to EBPG guidelines were compared with those that did not, followed by multivariate logistic regression, Kaplan-Meier curves and ROC curves to investigate factors associated with the development of renal anemia. RESULTS: During the 36-month follow-up period, 50% reached CKD-4 or 5, and approximately 35% were diagnosed with anemia (85% of renal origin). The probability of developing renal anemia was 0.12, 0.20 and 0.25 at 1, 2 and 3 years, respectively. Patients that developed anemia were mainly men (72% anemic vs. 69% non-anemic). The mean age was 68 vs. 65.5 years and baseline proteinuria was 0.94 vs. 0.62 g/24h (anemic vs. non anemic, respectively). Baseline MDRD values were 36 vs. 40 mL/min and albumin 4.1 vs. 4.3 g/dL; reduction in MDRD was greater in those that developed anemia (6.8 vs. 1.6 mL/min/1.73 m2/3 years). These patients progressed earlier to CKD-4 or 5 (18 vs. 28 months), with a higher proportion of hospitalizations (31 vs. 16%), major CV events (16 vs. 7%), and higher mortality (10 vs. 6.6%) than those without anemia. Multivariate logistic regression indicated a significant association between baseline hemoglobin (OR=0.35; 95% CI: 0.24-0.28), glomerular filtration rate (OR=0.96; 95% CI: 0.93-0.99), female (OR=0.19; 95% CI: 0.10-0.40) and the development of renal anemia. CONCLUSIONS: Renal anemia is associated with a more rapid evolution to CKD-4, and a higher risk of CV events and hospitalization in non-dialysis-dependent CKD patients. This suggests that special attention should be paid to anemic CKD-3 patients.
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BACKGROUND Preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) is the cornerstone of treatment for locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Although high local control is achieved, overall rates of distant control remain suboptimal. Colorectal carcinogenesis is associated with critical alterations of the Wnt/β-catenin pathway involved in proliferation and survival. The aim of this study was to assess whether CRT induces changes in the expression of β-catenin/E-cadherin, and to determine whether these changes are associated with survival. METHODS The Immunohistochemical expression of nuclear β-catenin and membranous E-cadherin was prospectively analysed in tumour blocks from 98 stage II/III rectal cancer patients treated with preoperative CRT. Tumour samples were collected before and after CRT treatment. All patients were treated with pelvic RT (46-50 Gy in 2 Gy fractions) and 5-fluorouracil (5FU) intravenous infusion (225 mg/m2) or capecitabine (825 mg/m2) during RT treatment, followed by total mesorectal excision (TME). Disease-free survival (DFS) was analysed using the Kaplan-Meier method and a multivariate Cox regression model was employed for the Multivariate analysis. RESULTS CRT induced significant changes in the expression of nuclear β-catenin (49% of patients presented an increased expression after CRT, 17% a decreased expression and 34% no changes; p = 0.001). After a median follow-up of 25 months, patients that overexpressed nuclear β-catenin after CRT showed poor survival compared with patients that experienced a decrease in nuclear β-catenin expression (3-year DFS 92% vs. 43%, HR 0.17; 95% CI 0.03 to 0.8; p = 0.02). In the multivariate analysis for DFS, increased nuclear β-catenin expression after CRT almost reached the cut-off for significance (p = 0.06). CONCLUSIONS In our study, preoperative CRT for LARC induced significant changes in nuclear β-catenin expression, which had a major impact on survival. Finding a way to decrease CRT resistance would significantly improve LARC patient survival.
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Purpose. To analyse the survival after salvage radiosurgery and to identify prognostic factors. Methods. We retrospectively reviewed 87 consecutive patients, with recurrent high-grade glioma, that underwent stereotactic radiosurgery between 1997 and 2010. We evaluated the survival after initial diagnosis and after reirradiation. The prognostic factors were analysed by bivariate and multivariate Cox regression model. Results. The median age was 48 years old. The primary histology included anaplastic astrocytoma (47%) and glioblastoma (53%). A margin dose of 18 Gy was administered in the majority of cases (74%). The median survival after initial diagnosis was 21 months (39 months for anaplastic astrocytoma and 18.5 months for glioblastoma) and after reirradiation it was 10 months (17 months for anaplastic astrocytoma and 7.5 months for glioblastoma). In the bivariate analyses, the prognostic factors significantly associated with survival after reirradiation were age, tumour and treatment volume at recurrence, recursive partitioning analyses classification, Karnofsky performance score, histology, and margin to the planning target volume. Only the last four showed significant association in the multivariate analyses. Conclusion. stereotactic radiosurgery is a safe and may be an effective treatment option for selected patients diagnosed with recurrent high-grade glioma. The identified prognostic factors could help individualise the treatment.
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BACKGROUND Pressure ulcers are considered an important issue, mainly affecting immobilized older patients. These pressure ulcers increase the care burden for the professional health service staff as well as pharmaceutical expenditure. There are a number of studies on the effectiveness of different products used for the prevention of pressure ulcers; however, most of these studies were carried out at a hospital level, basically using hyperoxygenated fatty acids (HOFA). There are no studies focused specifically on the use of olive-oil-based products and therefore this research is intended to find the most cost-effective treatment and achieve an alternative treatment. METHODS/DESIGN The main objective is to assess the effectiveness of olive oil, comparing it with HOFA, to treat immobilized patients at home who are at risk of pressure ulcers. As a secondary objective, the cost-effectiveness balance of this new application with regard to the HOFA will be assessed. The study is designed as a noninferiority, triple-blinded, parallel, multi-center, randomized clinical trial. The scope of the study is the population attending primary health centers in Andalucía (Spain) in the regional areas of Malaga, Granada, Seville, and Cadiz. Immobilized patients at risk of pressure ulcers will be targeted. The target group will be treated by application of an olive-oil-based formula whereas the control group will be treated by application of HOFA to the control group. The follow-up period will be 16 weeks. The main variable will be the presence of pressure ulcers in the patient. Secondary variables include sociodemographic and clinical information, caregiver information, and whether technical support exists. Statistical analysis will include the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, symmetry and kurtosis analysis, bivariate analysis using the Student's t and chi-squared tests as well as the Wilcoxon and the Man-Whitney U tests, ANOVA and multivariate logistic regression analysis. DISCUSSION The regular use of olive-oil-based formulas should be effective in preventing pressure ulcers in immobilized patients, thus leading to a more cost-effective product and an alternative treatment. TRIAL REGISTRATION Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: NCT01595347.
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BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is largely regarded to be initiated from left atrial (LA) dilatation, with subsequent dilatation of the right atrium (RA) in those who progress to chronic AF. We hypothesized that in adult patients with right-sided congenital heart disease (CHD) and AF, RA dilatation will predominate with subsequent dilatation of the left atrium, as a mirror image. METHODS: Adult patients with diagnosis of right-sided, ASD or left-sided CHD who had undergone an echocardiographic study and electrocardiographic recording in 2007 were included. RA and LA area were measured from the apical view. AF was diagnosed from a 12-lead electrocardiogram or Holter recording. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to identify predictors of AF and linear regression models were performed to measure relationship between RA and LA area and AF. RESULTS: A total of 291 patients were included in the study. Multivariate analysis showed that age (p=0.0001), RA (p=0.025) and LA area (p=0.0016) were significantly related to AF. In patients with pure left-sided pathologies, there was progressive and predominant LA dilatation that paralleled the development of AF from none to paroxysmal to chronic AF. In patients with pure right-sided pathologies, there was a mirror image of progressive and predominant RA dilatation with the development of AF. CONCLUSION: We observed a mirror image atrial dilatation in patients with right sided disease and AF. This may provide novel mechanistic insight as to the origin of AF in these patients and deserves further studying in the form of targeted electrophysiological studies.
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BACKGROUND Complicated pyelonephritis (cPN), a common cause of hospital admission, is still a poorly-understood entity given the difficulty involved in its correct definition. The aim of this study was to analyze the main epidemiological, clinical, and microbiological characteristics of cPN and its prognosis in a large cohort of patients with cPN. METHODS We conducted a prospective, observational study including 1325 consecutive patients older than 14 years diagnosed with cPN and admitted to a tertiary university hospital between 1997-2013. After analyzing the main demographic, clinical and microbiological data, covariates found to be associated with attributable mortality in univariate analysis were included in a multivariate logistic regression model. RESULTS Of the 1325 patients, 689 (52%) were men and 636 (48%) women; median age 63 years, interquartile range [IQR] (46.5-73). Nine hundred and forty patients (70.9%) had functional or structural abnormalities in the urinary tract, 215 (16.2%) were immunocompromised, 152 (11.5%) had undergone a previous urinary tract instrumentation, and 196 (14.8%) had a long-term bladder catheter, nephrostomy tube or ureteral catheter. Urine culture was positive in 813 (67.7%) of the 1251 patients in whom it was done, and in the 1032 patients who had a blood culture, 366 (34%) had bacteraemia. Escherichia coli was the causative agent in 615 episodes (67%), Klebsiella spp in 73 (7.9%) and Proteus ssp in 61 (6.6%). Fourteen point one percent of GNB isolates were ESBL producers. In total, 343 patients (25.9%) developed severe sepsis and 165 (12.5%) septic shock. Crude mortality was 6.5% and attributable mortality was 4.1%. Multivariate analysis showed that an age >75 years (OR 2.77; 95% CI, 1.35-5.68), immunosuppression (OR 3.14; 95% CI, 1.47-6.70), and septic shock (OR 58.49; 95% CI, 26.6-128.5) were independently associated with attributable mortality. CONCLUSIONS cPN generates a high morbidity and mortality and likely a great consumption of healthcare resources. This study highlights the factors directly associated with mortality, though further studies are needed in the near future aimed at identifying subgroups of low-risk patients susceptible to outpatient management.
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INTRODUCTION Statins have pleiotropic effects that could influence the prevention and outcome of some infectious diseases. There is no information about their specific effect on Staphylococcus aureus bacteremia (SAB). METHODS A prospective cohort study including all SAB diagnosed in patients aged ≥18 years admitted to a 950-bed tertiary hospital from March 2008 to January 2011 was performed. The main outcome variable was 14-day mortality, and the secondary outcome variables were 30-day mortality, persistent bacteremia (PB) and presence of severe sepsis or septic shock at diagnosis of SAB. The effect of statin therapy at the onset of SAB was studied by multivariate logistic regression and Cox regression analysis, including a propensity score for statin therapy. RESULTS We included 160 episodes. Thirty-three patients (21.3%) were receiving statins at the onset of SAB. 14-day mortality was 21.3%. After adjustment for age, Charlson index, Pitt score, adequate management, and high risk source, statin therapy had a protective effect on 14-day mortality (adjusted OR = 0.08; 95% CI: 0.01-0.66; p = 0.02), and PB (OR = 0.89; 95% CI: 0.27-1.00; p = 0.05) although the effect was not significant on 30-day mortality (OR = 0.35; 95% CI: 0.10-1.23; p = 0.10) or presentation with severe sepsis or septic shock (adjusted OR = 0.89; CI 95%: 0.27-2.94; p = 0.8). An effect on 30-day mortality could neither be demonstrated on Cox analysis (adjusted HR = 0.5; 95% CI: 0.19-1.29; p = 0.15). CONCLUSIONS Statin treatment in patients with SAB was associated with lower early mortality and PB. Randomized studies are necessary to identify the role of statins in the treatment of patients with SAB.
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Data on new predictors of outcome include penumbra core or collaterals.Objective: To test the predictive value of recanalization, collaterals, penumbra and core of ischemia for functional outcome in a large group of patients with MCA occlusion. Method: Consecutive events included prospectively in the Acute Stroke Registry and Analysis of Lausanne from April 2002 to April 2009 with an acute stroke due to proximal MCA occlusion (M1) were considered for analysis. Acute CTA were reviewed to grade the collaterals (dichotomized in poor __50% or good _50% compared to the normal side) and localization of M1 occlusion (proximal or mid-distal). Acute CTP were reviewed and reconstructed to determine penumbra, core and stroke index (penumbra/penumbra_core) of brain ischemia. Good outcome was defined by mRS 0-2 at 3 months.Results: Among 242 events (115 male, mean NIHSS 18.1, SD 5.8, mean age 66, SD 15), 42% were treated with intravenous thrombolysis, and 3% with intraarterial thrombolysis. Collateral status was rated as poor in 53% of events and proximal M1 occlusion was present in 64%. Recanalization determined at 24 hours with CTA was complete in 26% events and partial/absent in 54%.CTP was available for 212 events. Mean penumbra was 88.6 cm3 (median 84.4, SD 53.8), mean core was 54.1 cm3 (median 46.2, SD 45.7) and stroke index was 64% (median 68%, SD 25%). Good outcome was observed in 87 events (36%) and was associated in multivariate logistic regression with thrombolysis (p_0.02, OR_2.5, 95% CI 1.2-5.4), recanalization (p_0.001, OR_4.1, 95% CI 1.9-8.9), lower NIHSS (p_0.001, OR_0.84, 95% CI 0.78-0.91), male gender (p_0.01, OR_2.8, 95% CI 1.3-5.9), mRS prior to stroke (p_0.02, OR_0.5, 95% CI 0.28-0.9) and good collateral status (p_0.005, OR_3, 95% CI 1.4-6.4). Nor penumbra, nor core, nor stroke index were significant in the multivariate model, even if an association was present in the univariate model between good functional outcome and penumbra (p_0.004, OR_1.008, 95% CI 1.003-1.01), core (p_0.001, OR_0.98, 95% CI 0.976-0.99) and strokeindex (p_0.001, OR_16.7, 95% CI 4.6 59.9).Conclusion: MCA recanalization is the best predictor for good functional outcome, followed by collateral status. CTP data did not predict the functional outcome in our large group of M1 occlusion. Author Disclosures: C. Odier: None. P. Michel: Research Grant; Significant; Paion, Lundbeck. Speakers; Modest; Boehringer-Ingelheim. Consultant/Advisory Board; Modest; Boehringer- Ingelheim. Consultant/Advisory Board; Significant; Servier, Lundbeck.
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Several cross-sectional studies have shown the ability of the TBS to discriminate between those with and without fractures in European populations. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of TBS to discriminate between those with and without fractures in a large female Caucasian population in the USA. This was a case-control study of 2,165 Caucasian American women aged 40 and older. Patients with illness or taking medications known to affect bone metabolism were excluded. Those in the fracture group (n = 289) had at least one low-energy fracture. BMD was measured at L1-L4, TBS calculated directly from the same DXA image. Descriptive statistics and inferential tests for difference were used. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were created to investigate possible association between independent variables and the status of fracture. Odds ratios per standard deviation decrease (OR) and areas under the ROC curve were calculated for discriminating parameters. Weak correlations were observed between TBS and BMD and between TBS and BMI (r = 0.33 and -0.17, respectively, p < 0.01). Mean age, weight, BMD and TBS were significantly different between control and fracture groups (all p ≤ 0.05), whereas no difference was noted for BMI or height. After adjusting for age, weight, BMD, smoking, and maternal and family history of fracture, TBS (but not BMD) remained a significant predictor of fracture: OR 1.28[1.13-1.46] even after adjustment. In a US female population, TBS again was able to discriminate between those with and those without fractures, even after adjusting for other clinical risk factors.
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OBJECTIVES: We compared androgen and gonadotropin values in HIV-infected men who did and did not develop lipoatrophy on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). METHODS: From a population of 136 treatment-naïve male Caucasians under successful zidovudine/lamivudine-based cART, the 10 patients developing lipoatrophy (cases) were compared with 87 randomly chosen controls. Plasma levels of free testosterone (fT), dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), follicle-stimulating hormone and luteinizing hormone (LH) were measured at baseline and after 2 years of cART. RESULTS: At baseline, 60% of the cases and 71% of the controls showed abnormally low fT values. LH levels were normal or low in 67 and 94% of the patients, respectively, indicating a disturbance of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal axis. fT levels did not significantly change after 2 years of cART. Cases showed a significant increase in LH levels, while controls showed a significant increase in DHEA levels. In a multivariate logistic regression model, lipoatrophy was associated with higher baseline DHEA levels (P=0.04), an increase in LH levels during cART (P=0.001), a lower body mass index and greater age. CONCLUSIONS: Hypogonadism is present in the majority of HIV-infected patients. The development of cART-related lipoatrophy is associated with an increase in LH and a lack of increase in DHEA levels.
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Genetic polymorphisms near IL28B are associated with spontaneous and treatment-induced clearance of hepatitis C virus (HCV), two processes that require the appropriate activation of the host immune responses. Intrahepatic inflammation is believed to mirror such activation, but its relationship with IL28B polymorphisms has yet to be fully appreciated. We analyzed the association of IL28B polymorphisms with histological and follow-up features in 2335 chronically HCV-infected Caucasian patients. Assessable phenotypes before any antiviral treatment included necroinflammatory activity (n = 1,098), fibrosis (n = 1,527), fibrosis progression rate (n = 1,312), and hepatocellular carcinoma development (n = 1,915). Associations of alleles with the phenotypes were evaluated by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression, accounting for all relevant covariates. The rare G allele at IL28B marker rs8099917-previously shown to be at risk of treatment failure-was associated with lower activity (P = 0.04), lower fibrosis (P = 0.02) with a trend toward lower fibrosis progression rate (P = 0.06). When stratified according to HCV genotype, most significant associations were observed in patients infected with non-1 genotypes (P = 0.003 for activity, P = 0.001 for fibrosis, and P = 0.02 for fibrosis progression rate), where the odds ratio of having necroinflammation or rapid fibrosis progression for patients with IL28B genotypes TG or GG versus TT were 0.48 (95% confidence intervals 0.30-0.78) and 0.56 (0.35-0.92), respectively. IL28B polymorphisms were not predictive of the development of hepatocellular carcinoma. CONCLUSION: In chronic hepatitis C, IL28B variants associated with poor response to interferon therapy may predict slower fibrosis progression, especially in patients infected with non-1 HCV genotypes.