Probing three-way interactions in moderated multiple regression:Development and application of a slope difference test

Researchers often use 3-way interactions in moderated multiple regression analysis to test the joint effect of 3 independent variables on a dependent variable. However, further probing of significant interaction terms varies considerably and is sometimes error prone. The authors developed a significance test for slope differences in 3-way interactions and illustrate its importance for testing psychological hypotheses. Monte Carlo simulations revealed that sample size, magnitude of the slope difference, and data reliability affected test power. Application of the test to published data yielded detection of some slope differences that were undetected by alternative probing techniques and led to changes of results and conclusions. The authors conclude by discussing the test's applicability for psychological research. Copyright 2006 by the American Psychological Association.

Statnote 29:discriminant analysis

Discriminant analysis (also known as discriminant function analysis or multiple discriminant analysis) is a multivariate statistical method of testing the degree to which two or more populations may overlap with each other. It was devised independently by several statisticians including Fisher, Mahalanobis, and Hotelling ). The technique has several possible applications in Microbiology. First, in a clinical microbiological setting, if two different infectious diseases were defined by a number of clinical and pathological variables, it may be useful to decide which measurements were the most effective at distinguishing between the two diseases. Second, in an environmental microbiological setting, the technique could be used to study the relationships between different populations, e.g., to what extent do the properties of soils in which the bacterium Azotobacter is found differ from those in which it is absent? Third, the method can be used as a multivariate ‘t’ test , i.e., given a number of related measurements on two groups, the analysis can provide a single test of the hypothesis that the two populations have the same means for all the variables studied. This statnote describes one of the most popular applications of discriminant analysis in identifying the descriptive variables that can distinguish between two populations.

Reliability of vegetation community information derived using decorana ordination and fuzzy c-means clustering

Descriptions of vegetation communities are often based on vague semantic terms describing species presence and dominance. For this reason, some researchers advocate the use of fuzzy sets in the statistical classification of plant species data into communities. In this study, spatially referenced vegetation abundance values collected from Greek phrygana were analysed by ordination (DECORANA), and classified on the resulting axes using fuzzy c-means to yield a point data-set representing local memberships in characteristic plant communities. The fuzzy clusters matched vegetation communities noted in the field, which tended to grade into one another, rather than occupying discrete patches. The fuzzy set representation of the community exploited the strengths of detrended correspondence analysis while retaining richer information than a TWINSPAN classification of the same data. Thus, in the absence of phytosociological benchmarks, meaningful and manageable habitat information could be derived from complex, multivariate species data. We also analysed the influence of the reliability of different surveyors' field observations by multiple sampling at a selected sample location. We show that the impact of surveyor error was more severe in the Boolean than the fuzzy classification. © 2007 Springer.

Molecular markers and human history: A tale of two haplogroup systems

To chronicle demographic movement across African Asian corridors, a variety of molecular (sequence analysis, restriction mapping and denaturing high performance liquid chromatography etc.) and statistical (correspondence analysis, AMOVA, calculation of diversity indices and phylogenetic inference, etc.) techniques were employed to assess the phylogeographic patterns of mtDNA control region and Y chromosomal variation among 14 sub-Saharan, North African and Middle Eastern populations. The patterns of genetic diversity revealed evidence of multiple migrations across several African Asian passageways as well within the African continent itself. The two-part analysis uncovered several interesting results which include the following: (1) a north (Egypt and Middle East Asia) to south (sub-Saharan Africa) partitioning of both mtDNA and Y chromosomal haplogroup diversity, (2) a genetic diversity gradient in sub-Saharan Africa from east to west, (3) evidence in favor of the Levantine Corridor over the Horn of Africa as the major genetic conduit since the Last Glacial Maximum, (4) a substantially higher mtDNA versus Y chromosomal sub-Saharan component in the Middle East collections, (5) a higher representation of East versus West African mtDNA haplotypes in the Arabian Peninsula populations versus no such bias in the Levant groups and lastly, (6) genetic remnants of the Bantu demographic expansion in sub-Saharan Africa. ^

The mosses of Terra Nova National Park, Eastern Newfoundland, a bryofloristic analysis and interpretation

The known moss flora of Terra Nova National Park, eastern Newfoundland, comp~ises 210 species. Eighty-two percent of the moss species occurring in Terra Nova are widespread or widespread-sporadic in Newfoundland. Other Newfoundland distributional elements present in the Terra Nova moss flora are the northwestern, southern, southeastern, and disjunct elements, but four of the mosses occurring in Terra Nova appear to belong to a previously unrecognized northeastern element of the Newfoundland flora. The majority (70.9%) of Terra Nova's mosses are of boreal affinity and are widely distributed in the North American coniferous forest belt. An additional 10.5 percent of the Terra Nova mosses are cosmopolitan while 9.5 percent are temperate and 4.8 percent are arctic-montane species. The remaining 4.3 percent of the mosses are of montane affinity, and disjunct between eastern and western North America. In Terra Nova, temperate species at their northern limit are concentrated in balsam fir stands, while arctic-montane species are restricted to exposed cliffs, scree slopes, and coastal exposures. Montane species are largely confined to exposed or freshwater habitats. Inability to tolerate high summer temperatures limits the distributions of both arctic-montane and montane species. In Terra Nova, species of differing phytogeographic affinities co-occur on cliffs and scree slopes. The microhabitat relationships of five selected species from such habitats were evaluated by Discriminant Functions Analysis and Multiple Regression Analysis. The five mosses have distinct and different microhabitats on cliffs and scree slopes in Terra Nova, and abundance of all but one is associated with variation in at least one microhabitat variable. Micro-distribution of Grimmia torquata, an arctic-montane species at its southern limit, appears to be deterJ]lined by sensitivity to high summer temperatures. Both southern mosses at their northern limit (Aulacomnium androgynum, Isothecium myosuroides) appear to be limited by water availability and, possibly, by low winter temperatures. The two species whose distributions extend both north and south or the study area (Encalypta procera, Eurhynchium pulchellum) show no clear relationship with microclimate. Dispersal factors have played a significant role in the development of the Terra Nova moss flora. Compared to the most likely colonizing source (i .e. the rest of the island of Newfoundland), species with small diaspores have colonized the study area to a proportionately much greater extent than have species with large diaspores. Hierarchical log-linear analysis indicates that this is so for all affinity groups present in Terra Nova. The apparent dispersal effects emphasize the comparatively recent glaciation of the area, and may also have been enhanced by anthropogenic influences. The restriction of some species to specific habitats, or to narrowly defined microhabitats, appears to strengthen selection for easily dispersed taxa.

Biological factors affecting sea survival of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar L., in Western Arm Brook and an analysis of selection by the commercial fishery of nearby St. Barbe Bay, Newfoundland

The problems faced by scientists in charge of managing Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) stocks are : i) how to maintain spawning runs consisting of repeat spawners and large multi-sea-winter (MSW) adults in the face of selective homewater and distant commercial fisheries and , ii) how to more accurately predict returns of adults. Using data from scales collected from maiden Atlantic salmon grilse from two locations on the Northern Peninsula of Newfoundland, St. Barbe Bay and Western Arm Brook, their length at smolting was back calculated. These data were then used to examine whether the St. Barbe commercial fishery is selective for salmon of particular smolt age and/or size. Analysis indicated that come commercial fishery selected larger, but not necessarily older adults that those escaping to Western Arm Brook over the period of this study, 1978-1987. It was determined that less than average size smolts survived better than above average size smolts. Slection for repeat spawners, large MSW salmon, and larger grilse has meant reductions in the proportions of these adults in the spawning runs on Western Arm Brook. This may impact the Western Arm Brook salmon stock by increasing the population instability. Sea survival was significantly correlated with selection by the commercial fishery. Characteristics of adults in Western Arm Brook during the period of study (1978-1987) did not help in explaining yearly variation in sea survival. The characteristics of smolts, however, when subjected to multiple regression analysis explained 57.2 percent of the yearly variation in sea survival.

Diatom abundance in surface sediments of the northern North Pacific

In order to map the modern distribution of diatoms and to establish a reliable reference data set for paleoenvironmental reconstruction in the northern North Pacific, a new data set including the relative abundance of diatom species preserved in a total of 422 surface sediments was generated, which covers a broad range of environmental variables characteristic of the subarctic North Pacific, the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea between 30° and 70°N. The biogeographic distribution patterns as well as the preferences in sea surface temperature of 38 diatom species and species groups are documented. A Q-mode factor analysis yields a three-factor model representing assemblages associated with the Arctic, Subarctic and Subtropical water mass, indicating a close relationship between the diatom composition and the sea surface temperatures. The relative abundance pattern of 38 diatom species and species groups was statistically compared with nine environmental variables, i.e. the summer sea surface temperature and salinity, annual surface nutrient concentration (nitrate, phosphate, silicate), summer and winter mixed layer depth and summer and winter sea ice concentrations. Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) indicates 32 species and species groups have strong correspondence with the pattern of summer sea surface temperature. In addition, the total diatom flux data compiled from ten sediment traps reveal that the seasonal signals preserved in the surface sediments are mostly from spring through autumn. This close relationship between diatom composition and the summer sea surface temperature will be useful in deriving a transfer function in the subarctic North Pacific for the quantitative paleoceanographic and paleoenvironmental studies. The relative abundance of the sea-ice indicator diatoms Fragilariopsis cylindrus and F. oceanica of >20% in the diatom composition is used to represent the winter sea ice edge in the Bering Sea. The northern boundary of the distribution of F. doliolus in the open ocean is suggested to be an indicator of the Subarctic Front, while the abundance of Chaetoceros resting spores may indicate iron input from nearby continents and shelves and induced productivity events in the study area.

Ostracode relative abundances and geochemistry in surface sediments from Lake Ohrid

Understanding the ecology of bioindicators such as ostracods is essential in order to reconstruct past environmental and climate change from analysis of fossil assemblages preserved in lake sediment cores. Knowledge of the ecology of ancient Lake Ohrid's ostracod fauna is very limited and open to debate. In advance of the Ohrid ICDP-Drilling project, which has potential to generate high-resolution long-term paleoenvironmental data of global importance in paleoclimate research, we sampled Lake Ohrid and a wide range of habitat types in its surroundings to assess 1) the composition of ostracod assemblages in lakes, springs, streams, and short-lived seasonal water bodies, 2) the geographical distribution of ostracods, and 3) the ecological characteristics of individual ostracod species. In total, 40 species were collected alive, and seven species were preserved as valves and empty carapaces. Of the 40 ostracod species, twelve were endemic to Lake Ohrid. The most common genus in the lake was Candona, represented by 13 living species, followed by Paralimnocythere, represented by five living species. The most frequent species was Cypria obliqua. Species with distinct distributions included Heterocypris incongruens, Candonopsis kingsleii, and Cypria lacustris. The most common species in shallow, flooded areas was H. incongruens, and the most prominent species in ditches was C. kingsleii. C. lacustris was widely distributed in channels, springs, lakes, and rivers. Statistical analyses were performed on a "Lake Ohrid" dataset, comprising the subset of samples from Lake Ohrid alone, and an "entire" dataset comprising all samples collected. The unweighted pair group mean average (UPGMA) clustering was mainly controlled by species-specific depth preferences. Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) with forward selection identified water depth, water temperature, and pH as variables that best explained the ostracod distribution in Lake Ohrid. The lack of significance of conductivity and dissolved oxygen in CCA of Ohrid data highlight the uniformity across the lake of the well-mixed waters. In the entire area, CCA revealed that ostracod distribution was best explained by water depth, salinity, conductivity, pH, and dissolved oxygen. Salinity was probably selected by CCA due to the presence of Eucypris virens and Bradleystrandesia reticulata in short-lived seasonal water bodies. Water depth is an important, although indirect, influence on ostracod species distribution which is probably associated with other factors such as sediment texture and food supply. Some species appeared to be indicators for multiple environmental variables, such as lake level and water temperature.

Statistically robust representation and comparison of mortality profiles in archaeozoology

Archaeozoological mortality profiles have been used to infer site-specific subsistence strategies. There is however no common agreement on the best way to present these profiles and confidence intervals around age class proportions. In order to deal with these issues, we propose the use of the Dirichlet distribution and present a new approach to perform age-at-death multivariate graphical comparisons. We demonstrate the efficiency of this approach using domestic sheep/goat dental remains from 10 Cardial sites (Early Neolithic) located in South France and the Iberian Peninsula. We show that the Dirichlet distribution in age-at-death analysis can be used: (i) to generate Bayesian credible intervals around each age class of a mortality profile, even when not all age classes are observed; and (ii) to create 95% kernel density contours around each age-at-death frequency distribution when multiple sites are compared using correspondence analysis. The statistical procedure we present is applicable to the analysis of any categorical count data and particularly well-suited to archaeological data (e.g. potsherds, arrow heads) where sample sizes are typically small.

A Flow-Through Analysis of the US Lodging Industry During the Great Recession

Purpose – The objective of this exploratory study is to investigate the “flow-through” or relationship between top-line measures of hotel operating performance (occupancy, average daily rate and revenue per available room) and bottom-line measures of profitability (gross operating profit and net operating income), before and during the recent great recession. Design/methodology/approach – This study uses data provided by PKF Hospitality Research for the period from 2007-2009. A total of 714 hotels were analyzed and various top-line and bottom-line profitability changes were computed using both absolute levels and percentages. Multiple regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between top and bottom line measures, and to derive flow-through ratios. Findings – The results show that average daily rate (ADR) and occupancy are significantly and positively related to gross operating profit per available room (GOPPAR) and net operating income per available room (NOIPAR). The evidence indicates that ADR, rather than occupancy, appears to be the stronger predictor and better measure of RevPAR growth and bottom-line profitability. The correlations and explained variances are also higher than those reported in prior research. Flow-through ratios range between 1.83 and 1.91 for NOIPAR, and between 1.55 and 1.65 for GOPPAR, across all chain-scales. Research limitations/implications – Limitations of this study include the limited number of years in the study period, limited number of hotels in a competitive set, and self-selection of hotels by the researchers. Practical implications – While ADR and occupancy work in combination to drive profitability, the authors' study shows that ADR is the stronger predictor of profitability. Hotel managers can use flow-through ratios to make financial forecasts, or use them as inputs in valuation models, to forecast future profitability. Originality/value – This paper extends prior research on the relationship between top-line measures and bottom-line profitability and serves to inform lodging owners, operators and asset managers about flow-through ratios, and how these ratios impact hotel profitability.

Coastal Forests of Kenya-Ecology, Biodiversity & Conservation

Aims: the broad objective of this study is to investigate the ecological, biodiversity and conservation status of the coastal forests of Kenya fragments. The specific aims of the study are: (1) to investigate current quantitative trends in plant diversity; (2) develop a spatial and standardised vegetation database for the coastal forests Kenya; (3) investigate forest structure, species diversity and composition across the forests; (4) investigate the effect of forest fragment area on plant species diversity; (5) investigate phylogenetic diversity across these coastal remnants (6) assess vulnerability and provide conservation perspectives to concrete policy issues; (7) investigate plant and butterfly diversity correlation. Methods: I performed various analytical methods including species diversity metrics; multiple regression models for species-area relationship and small island effect; non-metric multidimensional scaling; ANOSIM; PERMANOVA; multiplicative beta diversity partitioning; species accumulation curve and species indicator analysis; statistical tests, rarefaction of species richness; phylogenetic diversity metrics of Phylogenetic diversity index, mean pairwise distance, mean nearest taxon distance, and their null-models: and Co-correspondence analysis. Results: developed the first large standardised, spatial and geo-referenced vegetation database for coastal forests of Kenya consisting of 600 plant species, across 25 forest fragments using 158 plots subdivided into 3160 subplots, 18 sacred forests and seven forest reserves; species diversity, composition and forest structure was significantly different across forest sites and between forest reserves and sacred forests, higher beta diversity, species-area relationship explained significant variability of plant diversity, small Island effect was not evident; sacred forests exhibited higher phylogenetic diversity compared to forest reserves; the threatened Red List species contributed higher evolutionary history; a strong correlation between plants and butterfly diversity. Conclusions: This study provides for the first time a standardized and large vegetation data. Results emphasizes need to improve sacred forests protection status and enhance forest connectivity across forest reserves and sacred forests.

The Burden Of Eclampsia: Results From A Multicenter Study On Surveillance Of Severe Maternal Morbidity In Brazil.

Maternal mortality (MM) is a core indicator of disparities in women's rights. The study of Near Miss cases is strategic to identifying the breakdowns in obstetrical care. In absolute numbers, both MM and occurrence of eclampsia are rare events. We aim to assess the obstetric care indicators and main predictors for severe maternal outcome from eclampsia (SMO: maternal death plus maternal near miss). Secondary analysis of a multicenter, cross-sectional study, including 27 centers from all geographic regions of Brazil, from 2009 to 2010. 426 cases of eclampsia were identified and classified according to the outcomes: SMO and non-SMO. We classified facilities as coming from low- and high-income regions and calculated the WHO's obstetric health indicators. SPSS and Stata softwares were used to calculate the prevalence ratios (PR) and respective 95% confidence interval (CI) to assess maternal characteristics, clinical and obstetrical history, and access to health services as predictors for SMO, subsequently correlating them with the corresponding perinatal outcomes, also applying multiple regression analysis (adjusted for cluster effect). Prevalence of and mortality indexes for eclampsia in higher and lower income regions were 0.2%/0.8% and 8.1%/22%, respectively. Difficulties in access to health care showed that ICU admission (adjPR 3.61; 95% CI 1.77-7.35) and inadequate monitoring (adjPR 2.31; 95% CI 1.48-3.59) were associated with SMO. Morbidity and mortality associated with eclampsia were high in Brazil, especially in lower income regions. Promoting quality maternal health care and improving the availability of obstetric emergency care are essential actions to relieve the burden of eclampsia.

Matrix Metalloproteinases And Left Ventricular Function And Structure In Spinal Cord Injured Subjects.

Subjects with spinal cord injury (SCI) exhibit impaired left ventricular (LV) diastolic function, which has been reported to be attenuated by regular physical activity. This study investigated the relationship between circulating matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and tissue inhibitors of MMPs (TIMPs) and echocardiographic parameters in SCI subjects and the role of physical activity in this regard. Forty-two men with SCI [19 sedentary (S-SCI) and 23 physically-active (PA-SCI)] were evaluated by clinical, anthropometric, laboratory, and echocardiographic analysis. Plasmatic pro-MMP-2, MMP-2, MMP-8, pro-MMP-9, MMP-9, TIMP-1 and TIMP-2 levels were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and zymography. PA-SCI subjects presented lower pro-MMP-2 and pro-MMP-2/TIMP-2 levels and improved markers of LV diastolic function (lower E/Em and higher Em and E/A values) than S-SCI ones. Bivariate analysis showed that pro-MMP-2 correlated inversely with Em and directly with E/Em, while MMP-9 correlated directly with LV mass index and LV end-diastolic diameter in the whole sample. Following multiple regression analysis, pro-MMP-2, but not physical activity, remained associated with Em, while MMP-9 was associated with LV mass index in the whole sample. These findings suggest differing roles for MMPs in LV structure and function regulation and an interaction among pro-MMP-2, diastolic function and physical activity in SCI subjects.

Falls Among The Elderly: Risk Factors In A Population-based Study.

The aim of the present study was to identify factors associated with the occurrence of falls among elderly adults in a population-based study (ISACamp 2008). A population-based cross-sectional study was carried out with two-stage cluster sampling. The sample was composed of 1,520 elderly adults living in the urban area of the city of Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil. The occurrence of falls was analyzed based on reports of the main accident occurred in the previous 12 months. Data on socioeconomic/demographic factors and adverse health conditions were tested for possible associations with the outcome. Prevalence ratios (PR) were estimated and adjusted for gender and age using the Poisson multiple regression analysis. Falls were more frequent, after adjustment for gender and age, among female elderly participants (PR = 2.39; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.47 - 3.87), elderly adults (80 years old and older) (PR = 2.50; 95% CI 1.61 - 3.88), widowed (PR = 1.74; 95% CI 1.04 - 2.89) and among elderly adults who had rheumatism/arthritis/arthrosis (PR = 1.58; 95% CI 1.00 - 2.48), osteoporosis (PR = 1.71; 95% CI 1.18 - 2.49), asthma/bronchitis/emphysema (PR = 1,73; 95% CI 1.09 - 2.74), headache (PR = 1.59; 95% CI 1.07 - 2.38), mental common disorder (PR = 1.72; 95% CI 1.12 - 2.64), dizziness (PR = 2.82; 95% CI 1.98 - 4.02), insomnia (PR = 1.75; 95% CI 1.16 - 2.65), use of multiple medications (five or more) (PR = 2.50; 95% CI 1.12 - 5.56) and use of cane/walker (PR = 2.16; 95% CI 1.19 - 3,93). The present study shows segments of the elderly population who are more prone to falls through the identification of factors associated with this outcome. The findings can contribute to the planning of public health policies and programs addressed to the prevention of falls.

Factors Associated With The Onset Of Hypertension In Women Of 50 Years Of Age Or More In A City In Southeastern Brazil.

To evaluate factors associated with hypertension in Brazilian women of 50 years of age or more. A cross-sectional population based study using self-reports. A total of 622 women were included. The association between sociodemographic, clinical and behavioral factors and the woman's age at the onset of hypertension was evaluated. Data were analyzed according to cumulative continuation rates without hypertension, using the life-table method and considering annual intervals. Next, a Cox multiple regression analysis model was adjusted to analyze the occurrence rates of hypertension according to various predictor variables. Significance level was pre-established at 5% (95% confidence level) and the sampling plan (primary sampling unit) was taken into consideration. Median age at onset of hypertension was 64.3 years. Cumulative continuation rate without hypertension at 90 years was 20%. Higher body mass index (BMI) at 20-30 years of age was associated with a higher cumulative occurrence rate of hypertension over time (coefficient=0.078; p<0.001). Being white was associated with a lower cumulative occurrence rate of hypertension over time (coefficient= -0.439; p=0.003), while smoking >15 cigarettes/day was associated with a higher rate over time (coefficient=0.485; p=0.004). The results of the present study highlight the importance of weight control in young adulthood and of avoiding smoking in preventing hypertension in women aged ≥50 years.