Finding the hidden influencers

This thesis is a first step in the search for the characteristics of funders, and the underlying motivation that drives them to participate in crowdfunding. The purpose of the study is to identify demographics and psychographics that influence a funder’s willingness to financially support a crowdfunding project (WFS). Crowdfunding, crowdsourcing and donation literature are combined to create a conceptual model in which age, gender, altruism and income, together with several control variables, are expected to have an influence on a funder’s WFS. Primary data collection was conducted using a survey, and a dataset of 175 potential crowdfunders was created. The data is analysed using a multiple regression and provided several interesting results. First of all, age and gender have a significant effect on WFS, males and young adults until the age of 30 have a higher intention to give money to crowdfunding projects. Second, altruism is significantly positively related to WFS, meaning that the funders do not just care about the potential rewards they could receive, but also about the benefits that they create for the entrepreneur and the people affected by the crowdfunding project. Third, the moderation effect of income was found to be insignificant in this model. It shows that income does not affect the strength of the relationship between the age, gender and altruism, and WFS. This study provides important theoretical contributions by, to the best of my knowledge, being the first study to quantitatively investigate the characteristics of funders and using the funder as the unit of analysis. Moreover, the study provides important insights for entrepreneurs who wish to target the crowd better in order to attract and retain more funders, thereby increasing the chance of success of their project.

Using data mining for prediction of hospital length of stay: an application of the CRISP-DM Methodology

Hospitals are nowadays collecting vast amounts of data related with patient records. All this data hold valuable knowledge that can be used to improve hospital decision making. Data mining techniques aim precisely at the extraction of useful knowledge from raw data. This work describes an implementation of a medical data mining project approach based on the CRISP-DM methodology. Recent real-world data, from 2000 to 2013, were collected from a Portuguese hospital and related with inpatient hospitalization. The goal was to predict generic hospital Length Of Stay based on indicators that are commonly available at the hospitalization process (e.g., gender, age, episode type, medical specialty). At the data preparation stage, the data were cleaned and variables were selected and transformed, leading to 14 inputs. Next, at the modeling stage, a regression approach was adopted, where six learning methods were compared: Average Prediction, Multiple Regression, Decision Tree, Artificial Neural Network ensemble, Support Vector Machine and Random Forest. The best learning model was obtained by the Random Forest method, which presents a high quality coefficient of determination value (0.81). This model was then opened by using a sensitivity analysis procedure that revealed three influential input attributes: the hospital episode type, the physical service where the patient is hospitalized and the associated medical specialty. Such extracted knowledge confirmed that the obtained predictive model is credible and with potential value for supporting decisions of hospital managers.

Associations, causation and model in psychiatry

This paper discusses models, associations and causation in psychiatry. The different types of association (linear, positive, negative, exponential, partial, U shaped relationship, hidden and spurious) between variables involved in mental disorders are presented as well as the use of multiple regression analysis to disentangle interrelatedness amongst multiple variables. A useful model should have internal consistency, external validity and predictive power; be dynamic in order to accommodate new sound knowledge; and should fit facts rather than they other way around. It is argued that whilst models are theoretical constructs they also convey a style of reasoning and can change clinical practice. Cause and effect are complex phenomena in that the same cause can yield different effects. Conversely, the same effect can have a different range of causes. In mental disorders and human behaviour there is always a chain of events initiated by the indirect and remote cause; followed by intermediate causes; and finally the direct and more immediate cause. Causes of mental disorders are grouped as those: (i) which are necessary and sufficient; (ii) which are necessary but not sufficient; and (iii) which are neither necessary nor sufficient, but when present increase the risk for mental disorders.

Estimativa dos parâmetros de compactação de solos usando técnicas de data mining

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Engenharia Civil

Physical activity, cardiorespiratory fitness, dietary content, and risk factors that cause a predisposition towards cardiovascular disease

OBJECTIVE: To analyze associations between levels of physical activity, cardiorespiratory fitness, dietary content, and risk factors that cause a predisposition towards cardiovascular disease. METHODS: Sixty-two individuals aged between 20 and 45 years were evaluated. Levels of physical activity were established by estimates of energy demand corresponding to everyday activity; indices for cardiorespiratory fitness were obtained from estimates of maximal oxygen consumption; information about dietary content was obtained from dietary records kept on seven consecutive days. To indicate risk factors that cause a predisposition towards cardiovascular disease, use was made of body mass indexes, waist-hip circumference relationships, levels of arterial pressure and of plasma lipid-lipoprotein concentration. To establish associations between the variables studied, multiple regression analysis was used. RESULTS: Physical activity levels and cardiorespiratory fitness levels were inversely correlated with the amount and distribution of body fat and arterial pressure. Taken together, the two variables were responsible for between 16% and 19% of the variation in arterial pressure. Total and saturated fat ingestion was associated with higher serum lipid levels. Both dietary components were responsible for between 49% and 61% of the variation in LDL-cholesterol. CONCLUSION: High ingestion of food rich in total and saturated fat and decreased levels of physical activity and of cardiorespiratory fitness are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease, which supports previous data.

Post-divorce representations of marital negotiation during marriage predict parenting alliance in newly divorced parents

Literature demonstrates that marital and co-parenting subsystems are intercorrelated and have autonomous functions in the family system. This study explored representations of marital negotiation strategies for conflict resolution during marriage and parenting alliance relationship after divorce, using data from Portuguese newly divorced parents. In multiple regression analysis, representations of marital negotiation strategies for conflict resolution during marriage used by ex-spouses predict positive parenting alliance relationship after divorce. These results suggest that representations of pre-divorce marital relationship influence positively current interparental relationship regarding child rearing after marital dissolution. Implications for clinical interventions are also discussed.

Left Ventricular Diastolic Function in Essential Hypertensive Patients: Influence of Age and Left Ventricular Geometry

PURPOSE - To evaluate diastolic dysfunction (DD) in essential hypertension and the influence of age and cardiac geometry on this parameter. METHODS - Four hundred sixty essential hypertensive patients (HT) underwent Doppler echocardiography to obtain E/A wave ratio (E/A), atrial deceleration time (ADT), and isovolumetric relaxation time (IRT). All patients were grouped according to cardiac geometric patterns (NG - normal geometry; CR - concentric remodeling; CH- concentric hypertrophy; EH - eccentric hypertrophy) and to age (<40; 40 - 60; >60 years). One hundred six normotensives (NT) persons were also evaluated. RESULTS - A worsening of diastolic function in the HT compared with the NT, including HT with NG (E/A: NT - 1.38±0.03 vs HT - 1.27±0.02, p<0.01), was observed. A higher prevalence of DD occurred parallel to age and cardiac geometry also in the prehypertrophic groups (CR). Multiple regression analysis identified age as the most important predictor of DD (r²=0.30, p<0.01). CONCLUSION - DD was prevalent in this hypertensive population, being highly affected by age and less by heart structural parameters. DD is observed in incipient stages of hypertensive heart disease, and thus its early detection may help in the risk stratification of hypertensive patients.

p.Q192R SNP of PON1 seems not to be Associated with Carotid Atherosclerosis Risk Factors in an Asymptomatic and Normolipidemic Brazilian Population Sample

Background:Evidences suggest that paraoxonase 1 (PON1) confers important antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties when associated with high-density lipoprotein (HDL).Objective:To investigate the relationships between p.Q192R SNP ofPON1, biochemical parameters and carotid atherosclerosis in an asymptomatic, normolipidemic Brazilian population sample.Methods:We studied 584 volunteers (females n = 326, males n = 258; 19-75 years of age). Total genomic DNA was extracted and SNP was detected in the TaqMan® SNP OpenArray® genotyping platform (Applied Biosystems, Foster City, CA). Plasma lipoproteins and apolipoproteins were determined and PON1 activity was measured using paraoxon as a substrate. High-resolution β-mode ultrasonography was used to measure cIMT and the presence of carotid atherosclerotic plaques in a subgroup of individuals (n = 317).Results:The presence of p.192Q was associated with a significant increase in PON1 activity (RR = 12.30 (11.38); RQ = 46.96 (22.35); QQ = 85.35 (24.83) μmol/min; p < 0.0001), HDL-C (RR= 45 (37); RQ = 62 (39); QQ = 69 (29) mg/dL; p < 0.001) and apo A-I (RR = 140.76 ± 36.39; RQ = 147.62 ± 36.92; QQ = 147.49 ± 36.65 mg/dL; p = 0.019). Stepwise regression analysis revealed that heterozygous and p.192Q carriers influenced by 58% PON1 activity towards paraoxon. The univariate linear regression analysis demonstrated that p.Q192R SNP was not associated with mean cIMT; as a result, in the multiple regression analysis, no variables were selected with 5% significance. In logistic regression analysis, the studied parameters were not associated with the presence of carotid plaques.Conclusion:In low-risk individuals, the presence of the p.192Q variant ofPON1 is associated with a beneficial plasma lipid profile but not with carotid atherosclerosis.

Risk Factors for Cardiovascular Disease, Metabolic Syndrome and Sleepiness in Truck Drivers

Abstract Background: Truck driver sleepiness is a primary cause of vehicle accidents. Several causes are associated with sleepiness in truck drivers. Obesity and metabolic syndrome (MetS) are associated with sleep disorders and with primary risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). We analyzed the relationship between these conditions and prevalence of sleepiness in truck drivers. Methods: We analyzed the major risk factors for CVD, anthropometric data and sleep disorders in 2228 male truck drivers from 148 road stops made by the Federal Highway Police from 2006 to 2011. Alcohol consumption, illicit drugs and overtime working hours were also analyzed. Sleepiness was assessed using the Epworth Sleepiness Scale. Results: Mean age was 43.1 ± 10.8 years. From 2006 to 2011, an increase in neck (p = 0.011) and abdominal circumference (p < 0.001), total cholesterol (p < 0.001), triglyceride plasma levels (p = 0.014), and sleepiness was observed (p < 0.001). In addition, a reduction in hypertension (39.6% to 25.9%, p < 0.001), alcohol consumption (32% to 23%, p = 0.033) and overtime hours (52.2% to 42.8%, p < 0.001) was found. Linear regression analysis showed that sleepiness correlated closely with body mass index (β = 0.19, Raj2 = 0.659, p = 0.031), abdominal circumference (β = 0.24, Raj2 = 0.826, p = 0.021), hypertension (β = -0.62, Raj2 = 0.901, p = 0.002), and triglycerides (β = 0.34, Raj2 = 0.936, p = 0.022). Linear multiple regression indicated that hypertension (p = 0.008) and abdominal circumference (p = 0.025) are independent variables for sleepiness. Conclusions: Increased prevalence of sleepiness was associated with major components of the MetS.

Determinació de la deposició atmosfèrica de metalls pesants a les Muntanyes de Prades (Tarragona) a partir dels bioindicadors Xanthoria parietina i Hypnum cupressiforme

En aquest estudi s’ha determinat la deposició atmosfèrica de metalls pesants a partir dels bioindicadors Xanthoria parietina (liquen) i Hypnum cupressiforme (molsa), en 16 punts de mostreig repartits per la zona on s’ubicarà el futur parc natural de les Muntanyes de Prades (Tarragona). A partir de la comparació de les concentracions obtingudes en aquest treball amb les d’altres estudis de plantejament equiparable, es va comprovar que la majoria de valors de concentració dels metalls eren similars als d’altres zones geogràfiques estudiades, a excepció del crom i el níquel, que presentaven valors clarament més elevats. A partir de proves estadístiques (ANOVA, regressions múltiples) es va determinar que existien diferències significatives entre les concentracions de metalls dels diferents punts de mostreig. També es van detectar correlacions significatives entre les concentracions dels punts de mostreig i la distància d’aquests respecte els focus potencials de contaminació que s’havien considerat prèviament. Amb les dades obtingudes a partir un petit anàlisi de la riquesa liquènica dels punts de mostreig, es va disposar d’informació extra per poder avaluar les fonts i el patró de distribució d’aquests contaminants.

Cognitive and Emotional Deficits Associated with Minor and Serious Delinquency in High-Risk Adolescents

This study aims at evaluating how minor and serious delinquency relates to cognitive and emotional functioning in high-risk adolescents, taking problematic substance use into account. In 80 high-risk adolescent males (13-19 years), the frequency of minor and serious offences committed over the last year was predicted, in multiple regression analyses, from problematic substance use, intellectual efficiency, trait impulsivity, alexithymia (inability to express feelings in words), and cognitive coping strategies. Both minor and serious delinquency were more frequent in adolescents with more problematic substance use and higher intellectual efficacy. Minor delinquency was further related to a tendency to act out when experiencing negative emotions, and difficulties in focusing energy on instrumental action when under stress; while serious delinquency was predominantly and strongly related to rigid and dichotomous thinking. The results underline the heterogeneous nature of delinquency, minor offences being primarily associated with emotional regulation deficits, while major offences are related with a lack of cognitive flexibility.

Connective tissue growth factor, steatosis and fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

BACKGROUND/AIM: Both steatosis and insulin resistance have been linked to accelerated fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C. Connective tissue growth factor (CTGF) plays a major role in extracellular matrix production in fibrotic disorders including cirrhosis, and its expression is stimulated in vitro by insulin and glucose. We hypothesized that CTGF may link steatosis, insulin resistance and fibrosis. METHODS: We included 153 chronic hepatitis C patients enrolled in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study and for whom a liver biopsy and plasma samples were available. CTGF expression was assessed quantitatively by immunohistochemistry. In 94 patients (57 with genotypes non-3), plasma levels of glucose, insulin and leptin were also measured. CTGF synthesis was investigated by immunoblotting on LX-2 stellate cells. RESULTS: Connective tissue growth factor expression was higher in patients with steatosis (P=0.039) and in patients with fibrosis (P=0.008) than those without these features. CTGF levels were neither associated with insulinaemia or with glycaemia, nor with inflammation. By multiple regression analysis, CTGF levels were independently associated with steatosis, a past history of alcohol abuse, plasma leptin and HCV RNA levels; when only patients with genotypes non-3 were considered, CTGF levels were independently associated with a past history of alcohol abuse, plasma leptin levels and steatosis. Leptin stimulated CTGF synthesis in LX-2 cells. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with chronic hepatitis C and steatosis, CTGF may promote fibrosis independently of inflammation. CTGF may link steatosis and fibrosis via increased leptin levels.

Daily physical activity assessment: what is the importance of upper limb movements vs whole body movements?

OBJECTIVE: The movement of the upper limbs (eg fidgeting-like activities) is a meaningful component of nonexercise activity thermogenesis (NEAT). This study examined the relationship between upper limb movements and whole body trunk movements, by simultaneously measuring energy expenditure during the course of the day. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study consisting of 88 subjects with a wide range in body mass index (17.3-32.5 kg/m(2)). The energy expenditure over a 24-h period was measured in a large respiratory chamber. The body movements were assessed by two uniaxial-accelerometers during daytime, one on the waist and the other on the dominant arm. The accelerometry scores from level 0 (=immobile) up to level 9 (=maximal intensity) were recorded. The activities of subjects were classified into eight categories: walking at two speeds on a horizontal treadmill (A & B), ambling (C), self-care tasks (D), desk work (E), meals (F), reading (G), watching TV (H). RESULTS: There was a significant relationship between the accelerometry scores from the waist (ACwaist) and that from the wrist (ACwrist) over the daytime period (R(2)=0.64; P<0.001). The ACwrist was systematically higher than the ACwaist during sedentary activities, whereas it was the reverse for walking activities. ACwrist to ACwaist ratio of activities E-H were above 1.0 and for walking activities (A-C) were below 1.0. A multiple regression analysis for predicting daytime energy expenditure revealed that the explained variance improved by 2% only when the ACwrist was added as a second predictor in addition to the ACwaist. This indicates that the effect of the ACwrist for predicting energy expenditure was of limited importance in our conditions of measurement. CONCLUSIONS: The acceleration of the upper limbs which includes fidgeting is more elevated than that of the whole body for sitting/lying down activities. However, their contribution to energy expenditure is lower than whole body trunk movements, thus indicating that the weight-bearing locomotion activities may be a key component of NEAT. However, its contribution may depend on the total duration of the upper limb movements during the course of the day.

Effect of biological surlie ageing on the sparkling wines’ quality and elaoration

Report for the scientific sojourn at the Université de Bourgogne, France, from July until October 2007..Surlie ageing after second fermentation is a fundamental operation in the production of quality sparkling wine like Cava and Champagne. Recently, the importance of the interaction between wine and lees cell surface has been reported. Cell surface properties depending on wall biochemical composition are major determinants in microbial interactions, having important repercussions in several technological aspects. Sorption and flocculation are especially important in sparkling wine production, and are governed by distinct cell surface properties. The aim of the present research carried out during the four months of the stage was to know the implication of lees surface modifications occurring during surlie ageing in sparkling wine quality and elaboration. The relationship between physico-chemical properties such as hydrophobicity, charge and electron-donor characteristics, and the yeast surface sorption capacities, we determined these factors in a model system. Then, real industrial lees samples were investigated. The surface properties of sparkling wine lees from the same strain of Saccharomyces cerevisiae were characterized according to the time of surlie ageing, and their possible influence on lees sorption and flocculation capacity was evaluated. Surlie ageing after second fermentation is a fundamental operation in the production of quality sparkling wine like Cava and Champagne. Recently, the importance of the interaction between wine and lees cell surface has been reported. Cell surface properties depending on wall biochemical composition are major determinants in microbial interactions, having important repercussions in several technological aspects. Sorption and flocculation are especially important in sparkling wine production, and are governed by distinct cell surface properties. The aim of the present research carried out during the four months of the stage was to know the implication of lees surface modifications occurring during surlie ageing in sparkling wine quality and elaboration. The relationship between physico-chemical properties such as hydrophobicity, charge and electron-donor characteristics, and the yeast surface sorption capacities, we determined these factors in a model system. Then, real industrial lees samples were investigated. The surface properties of sparkling wine lees from the same strain of Saccharomyces cerevisiae were characterized according to the time of surlie ageing, and their possible influence on lees sorption and flocculation capacity was evaluated.

Determinants of basal fat oxidation in healthy Caucasians.

In a retrospective study, we examined several determinants of basal fat oxidation in 720 healthy Caucasian volunteers. Adult men (n = 427) and women (n = 293) were characterized for resting energy expenditure and substrate oxidation by indirect calorimetry (after a 12-h overnight fast), peak O2 consumption by a treadmill test to exhaustion, body composition by hydrodensitometry, food intake from a 3-day food diary, and hormonal status by fasting hormone concentrations. Fat oxidation was negatively correlated with fat mass in men (r = -0.11; P < 0.05), but no statistical relationship was found in women. In a stepwise multiple regression analysis, fat oxidation was best predicted by peak O2 consumption and fat-free mass in men (model R2 = 0.142) and by free thyroxine, fat-free mass, and fasting insulin in women (model R2 = 0.153). Relative rates of fat oxidation (fat oxidation adjusted for differences in resting energy expenditure) were not correlated with fat mass in either gender. Women showed a lower rate of basal fat oxidation (both absolute and adjusted) than did men. Our results show that fat oxidation is not greater in individuals with a greater fat mass. Furthermore, our results support a sexual dimorphism in basal rates of fat oxidation.