Integrated assessment of agricultural sustainability: the pros and cons of reductionism

In this paper I review a series of theoretical concepts that are relevant for the integrated assessment of agricultural sustainability but that are not generally included in the curriculum of the various scientific disciplines dealing with quantitative analysis of agriculture. I first illustrate with plain narratives and concrete examples that sustainability is an extremely complex issue requiring the simultaneous consideration of several aspects, which cannot be reduced into a single indicator of performance. Following, I justify this obvious need for multi-criteria analysis with theoretical concepts dealing with the epistemological predicament of complexity, starting from classic philosophical lessons to arrive to recent developments in complex system theory, in particular Rosen´s theory of modelling relation which is essential to analyze the quality of any quantitative representation. The implications of these theoretical concepts are then illustrated with applications of multi-criteria analysis to the sustainability of agriculture. I wrap up by pointing out the crucial difference between "integrated assessment" and "integrated analysis". An integrated analysis is a set of indicators and analytical models generating an analytical output. An integrated assessment is much more than that. It is about finding an effective way to deal with three key issues: (i) legitimacy – how to handle the unavoidable existence of legitimate but contrasting points of view about different meanings given by social actors to the word "development"; (ii) pertinence – how to handle in a coherent way scientific analyses referring to different scales and dimensions; and (iii) credibility – how to handle the unavoidable existence of uncertainty and genuine ignorance, when dealing with the analysis of future scenarios.

Italy's urban waste metabolism

The problem of waste management is causing growing concern due to increasing generation rates, the emissions into soil, water and air, the social conflicts derived from the election of disposal sites and the loss of resources and energy among others. In this work, an innovative methodology is used to enable a better understanding of the waste generation and management system in Italy. Two new waste indicators are built to complement the conventional indicators used by official statistics. Then a multi-scale analysis of the Density of Waste Disposed (DWD) is carried out to highlight the territorial diversity of waste performances and test its contribution to detect plausible risky areas. Starting from Italian regions, the scale down goes on to the provincial level and, only for the region of Campania, the municipal one. First, the analysis shows that the DWD is able to complement the information provided by the conventional waste indicators. Second, the analysis shows the limitations of using a unique institutional solution to waste management problems. In this sense the multi-scale analysis provides with a more realistic picture of Italian waste system than using a single scale.

Re-opening the black box in societal metabolism: the application of MuSIASEM to water

In this paper we address the complexity of the analysis of water use in relation to the issue of sustainability. In fact, the flows of water in our planet represent a complex reality which can be studied using many different perceptions and narratives referring to different scales and dimensions of analysis. For this reason, a quantitative analysis of water use has to be based on analytical methods that are semantically open: they must be able to define what we mean with the term “water” when crossing different scales of analysis. We propose here a definition of water as a resource that deal with the many services it provides to humans and ecosystems. WE argue that water can fulfil so many of them since the element has many characteristics that allow for the resource to be labelled with different attributes, depending on the end use –such as drinkable. Since the services for humans and the functions for ecosystems associated with water flows are defined on different scales but still interconnected it is necessary to organize our assessment of water use across different hierarchical levels. In order to do so we define how to approach the study of water use in the Societal Metabolism, by proposing the Water Metabolism, tganized in three levels: societal level, ecosystem level and global level. The possible end uses we distinguish for the society are: personal/physiological use, household use, economic use. Organizing the study of “water use” across all these levels increases the usefulness of the quantitative analysis and the possibilities of finding relevant and comparable results. To achieve this result, we adapted a method developed to deal with multi-level, multi-scale analysis - the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach - to the analysis of water metabolism. In this paper, we discuss the peculiar analytical identity that “water” shows within multi-scale metabolic studies: water represents a flow-element when considering the metabolism of social systems (at a small scale, when describing the water metabolism inside the society) and a fund-element when considering the metabolism o ecosystems (at a larger scale when describing the water metabolism outside the society). The theoretical analysis is illustrated using two case which characterize the metabolic patterns regarding water use of a productive system in Catalonia and a water management policy in Andarax River Basin in Andalusia.

Phenotypic novelty in experimental hybrids is predicted by the genetic distance between species of cichlid fish.

BACKGROUND: Transgressive segregation describes the occurrence of novel phenotypes in hybrids with extreme trait values not observed in either parental species. A previously experimentally untested prediction is that the amount of transgression increases with the genetic distance between hybridizing species. This follows from QTL studies suggesting that transgression is most commonly due to complementary gene action or epistasis, which become more frequent at larger genetic distances. This is because the number of QTLs fixed for alleles with opposing signs in different species should increase with time since speciation provided that speciation is not driven by disruptive selection. We measured the amount of transgression occurring in hybrids of cichlid fish bred from species pairs with gradually increasing genetic distances and varying phenotypic similarity. Transgression in multi-trait shape phenotypes was quantified using landmark-based geometric morphometric methods. RESULTS: We found that genetic distance explained 52% and 78% of the variation in transgression frequency in F1 and F2 hybrids, respectively. Confirming theoretical predictions, transgression when measured in F2 hybrids, increased linearly with genetic distance between hybridizing species. Phenotypic similarity of species on the other hand was not related to the amount of transgression. CONCLUSION: The commonness and ease with which novel phenotypes are produced in cichlid hybrids between unrelated species has important implications for the interaction of hybridization with adaptation and speciation. Hybridization may generate new genotypes with adaptive potential that did not reside as standing genetic variation in either parental population, potentially enhancing a population's responsiveness to selection. Our results make it conceivable that hybridization contributed to the rapid rates of phenotypic evolution in the large and rapid adaptive radiations of haplochromine cichlids.

A two-stage approach for tonic identification in indian art music

In this paper we propose a new approach for tonic identification in Indian art music and present a proposal for acomplete iterative system for the same. Our method splits the task of tonic pitch identification into two stages. In the first stage, which is applicable to both vocal and instrumental music, we perform a multi-pitch analysis of the audio signal to identify the tonic pitch-class. Multi-pitch analysisallows us to take advantage of the drone sound, which constantlyreinforces the tonic. In the second stage we estimate the octave in which the tonic of the singer lies and is thusneeded only for the vocal performances. We analyse the predominant melody sung by the lead performer in order to establish the tonic octave. Both stages are individually evaluated on a sizable music collection and are shown toobtain a good accuracy. We also discuss the types of errors made by the method.Further, we present a proposal for a system that aims to incrementally utilize all the available data, both audio and metadata in order to identify the tonic pitch. It produces a tonic estimate and a confidence value, and is iterative in nature. At each iteration, more data is fed into the systemuntil the confidence value for the identified tonic is above a defined threshold. Rather than obtain high overall accuracy for our complete database, ultimately our goal is to develop a system which obtains very high accuracy on a subset of the database with maximum confidence.

Life-Cycle Effects on Household Expenditures: A Latent-Variable Approach

Using data from the Spanish household budget survey, we investigate life- cycle effects on several product expenditures. A latent-variable model approach is adopted to evaluate the impact of income on expenditures, controlling for the number of members in the family. Two latent factors underlying repeated measures of monetary and non-monetary income are used as explanatory variables in the expenditure regression equations, thus avoiding possible bias associated to the measurement error in income. The proposed methodology also takes care of the case in which product expenditures exhibit a pattern of infrequent purchases. Multiple-group analysis is used to assess the variation of key parameters of the model across various household life-cycle typologies. The analysis discloses significant life-cycle effects on the mean levels of expenditures; it also detects significant life-cycle effects on the way expenditures are affected by income and family size. Asymptotic robust methods are used to account for possible non-normality of the data.

Lyfe-cycle effects on household expenditures: A latent-variable approach

Using data from the Spanish household budget survey, we investigate life-cycle effects on several product expenditures. A latent-variable model approach is adopted to evaluate the impact of income on expenditures, controlling for the number of members in the family. Two latent factors underlying repeated measures of monetary and non-monetary income are used as explanatory variables in the expenditure regression equations, thus avoiding possible bias associated to the measurement error in income. The proposed methodology also takes care of the case in which product expenditures exhibit a pattern of infrequent purchases. Multiple-group analysis is used to assess the variation of key parameters of the model across various household life-cycle typologies. The analysis discloses significant life-cycle effects on the mean levels of expenditures; it also detects significant life-cycle effects on the way expenditures are affected by income and family size. Asymptotic robust methods are used to account for possible non-normality of the data.

What risks do people perceive in everyday life? A perspective gained from the experience sampling method (ESM)

The experiential sampling method (ESM) was used to collect data from 74 parttimestudents who described and assessed the risks involved in their current activitieswhen interrupted at random moments by text messages. The major categories ofperceived risk were short-term in nature and involved loss of time or materials relatedto work and physical damage (e.g., from transportation). Using techniques of multilevelanalysis, we demonstrate effects of gender, emotional state, and types of risk onassessments of risk. Specifically, females do not differ from males in assessing thepotential severity of risks but they see these as more likely to occur. Also, participantsassessed risks to be lower when in more positive self-reported emotional states. Wefurther demonstrate the potential of ESM by showing that risk assessments associatedwith current actions exceed those made retrospectively. We conclude by notingadvantages and disadvantages of ESM for collecting data about risk perceptions.

DNA mismatch repair gene MSH6 implicated in determining age at natural menopause.

The length of female reproductive lifespan is associated with multiple adverse outcomes, including breast cancer, cardiovascular disease and infertility. The biological processes that govern the timing of the beginning and end of reproductive life are not well understood. Genetic variants are known to contribute to ∼50% of the variation in both age at menarche and menopause, but to date the known genes explain <15% of the genetic component. We have used genome-wide association in a bivariate meta-analysis of both traits to identify genes involved in determining reproductive lifespan. We observed significant genetic correlation between the two traits using genome-wide complex trait analysis. However, we found no robust statistical evidence for individual variants with an effect on both traits. A novel association with age at menopause was detected for a variant rs1800932 in the mismatch repair gene MSH6 (P = 1.9 × 10(-9)), which was also associated with altered expression levels of MSH6 mRNA in multiple tissues. This study contributes to the growing evidence that DNA repair processes play a key role in ovarian ageing and could be an important therapeutic target for infertility.

Familiality and SNP heritability of age at onset and episodicity in major depressive disorder.

BACKGROUND: Strategies to dissect phenotypic and genetic heterogeneity of major depressive disorder (MDD) have mainly relied on subphenotypes, such as age at onset (AAO) and recurrence/episodicity. Yet, evidence on whether these subphenotypes are familial or heritable is scarce. The aims of this study are to investigate the familiality of AAO and episode frequency in MDD and to assess the proportion of their variance explained by common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP heritability). METHOD: For investigating familiality, we used 691 families with 2-5 full siblings with recurrent MDD from the DeNt study. We fitted (square root) AAO and episode count in a linear and a negative binomial mixed model, respectively, with family as random effect and adjusting for sex, age and center. The strength of familiality was assessed with intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). For estimating SNP heritabilities, we used 3468 unrelated MDD cases from the RADIANT and GSK Munich studies. After similarly adjusting for covariates, derived residuals were used with the GREML method in GCTA (genome-wide complex trait analysis) software. RESULTS: Significant familial clustering was found for both AAO (ICC = 0.28) and episodicity (ICC = 0.07). We calculated from respective ICC estimates the maximal additive heritability of AAO (0.56) and episodicity (0.15). SNP heritability of AAO was 0.17 (p = 0.04); analysis was underpowered for calculating SNP heritability of episodicity. CONCLUSIONS: AAO and episodicity aggregate in families to a moderate and small degree, respectively. AAO is under stronger additive genetic control than episodicity. Larger samples are needed to calculate the SNP heritability of episodicity. The described statistical framework could be useful in future analyses.

Equivalence of paper and pencil vs internet forms of the ZKPQ-50-CC in Spanish and French samples

This study was designed to check for the equivalence of the ZKPQ-50-CC (Spanish and French versions) through Internet on-line (OL) and paper and pencil (PP) answer format. Differences in means and devia- tions were significant in some scales, but effect sizes are minimal except for Sociability in the Spanish sample. Alpha reliabilities are also very similar in both versions with no significant differences between formats. A robust factorial structure was found for the two formats and the average congruency coefficients were 0.98. The goodness-of-fit indexes obtained by confirmatory factorial analysis are very similar to those obtained in the ZKPQ-50-CC validation study and they do not differ between the two formats. The multi-group analysis confirms the equivalence among the OL-PP formats in both countries. These results in general support the validity and reliability of the Internet as a method in investigations using the ZKPQ-50-CC.

The efficiency of different estimation methods of hydro-physical limits

The soil water available to crops is defined by specific values of water potential limits. Underlying the estimation of hydro-physical limits, identified as permanent wilting point (PWP) and field capacity (FC), is the selection of a suitable method based on a multi-criteria analysis that is not always clear and defined. In this kind of analysis, the time required for measurements must be taken into consideration as well as other external measurement factors, e.g., the reliability and suitability of the study area, measurement uncertainty, cost, effort and labour invested. In this paper, the efficiency of different methods for determining hydro-physical limits is evaluated by using indices that allow for the calculation of efficiency in terms of effort and cost. The analysis evaluates both direct determination methods (pressure plate - PP and water activity meter - WAM) and indirect estimation methods (pedotransfer functions - PTFs). The PTFs must be validated for the area of interest before use, but the time and cost associated with this validation are not included in the cost of analysis. Compared to the other methods, the combined use of PP and WAM to determine hydro-physical limits differs significantly in time and cost required and quality of information. For direct methods, increasing sample size significantly reduces cost and time. This paper assesses the effectiveness of combining a general analysis based on efficiency indices and more specific analyses based on the different influencing factors, which were considered separately so as not to mask potential benefits or drawbacks that are not evidenced in efficiency estimation.

Evaluation of Photoacoustic Spectroscopy for Quality Control of Cement, TR-409, 1998

This report discusses the feasibility of using infrared photoacoustic spectroscopy (PAS) as a viable technique that can quickly provide information on cement composition prior to use. The PAS technique is of interest because the cost is much lower than for other types of instrumentation used for mineral analysis, it requires virtually no sample preparation, and it can perform multi-component analysis in a matter of minutes. Feasibility of the technique was based on the ability of PAS to identify and quantify sulfate species and major cement matrix components. Strengths and limitations of the technique are presented.

Optimizing Pavement Base, Subbase, and Subgrade Layers for Cost and Performance of Local Roads, TR-640

This report is one of two products for this project with the other being a design guide. This report describes test results and comparative analysis from 16 different portland cement concrete (PCC) pavement sites on local city and county roads in Iowa. At each site the surface conditions of the pavement (i.e., crack survey) and foundation layer strength, stiffness, and hydraulic conductivity properties were documented. The field test results were used to calculate in situ parameters used in pavement design per SUDAS and AASHTO (1993) design methodologies. Overall, the results of this study demonstrate how in situ and lab testing can be used to assess the support conditions and design values for pavement foundation layers and how the measurements compare to the assumed design values. The measurements show that in Iowa, a wide range of pavement conditions and foundation layer support values exist. The calculated design input values for the test sites (modulus of subgrade reaction, coefficient of drainage, and loss of support) were found to be different than typically assumed. This finding was true for the full range of materials tested. The findings of this study support the recommendation to incorporate field testing as part of the process to field verify pavement design values and to consider the foundation as a design element in the pavement system. Recommendations are provided in the form of a simple matrix for alternative foundation treatment options if the existing foundation materials do not meet the design intent. The PCI prediction model developed from multi-variate analysis in this study demonstrated a link between pavement foundation conditions and PCI. The model analysis shows that by measuring properties of the pavement foundation, the engineer will be able to predict long term performance with higher reliability than by considering age alone. This prediction can be used as motivation to then control the engineering properties of the pavement foundation for new or re-constructed PCC pavements to achieve some desired level of performance (i.e., PCI) with time.

Logistiikkayrityksen sijoittuminen Venäjälle - Venäjän logistiikkasektori ja potentiaaliset sijoittumiskohteet

Venäjän voimakas talouskasvu on lisännyt merkittävästi myös logistiikkapalveluiden kysyntää maassa. Suuren pinta-alan, markkinapotentiaalin ja Euroopan ja Aasian välisen maantieteellisen sijainnin tarjoaman merkittävän kauttakulkupotentiaalin ansiosta Venäjä on erityisen kiinnostava investointikohde logistiikkayrityksille. Talouskasvu ei ole kuitenkaan jakautunut tasaisesti ja tämän vuoksi investoijan onkin syytä tarkoin selvittää minne Venäjän sisällä sijoittua. Tässä työssä on kartoitettu Venäjän logistiikkasektoria ja liikenneinfrastruktuuria sekä tarkasteltu kilpailutilannetta tavoitteena löytää logistiikkayrityksellekeskeisimmät sijaintikohteet Venäjällä. Moskova ja Pietari on rajattu tutkimuksen ulkopuolelle. Alan kirjallisuuteen ja aiheesta aiemmin laadittuihin tutkimuksiin perehtymällä on selvitetty yritysten sijaintipaikanvalinnalle asettamat tärkeimmät kriteerit. Logistiikkayrityksille toimivalla infrastruktuurilla on luonnollisesti oleellinen merkitys sijaintipaikkaa valittaessa, riittävän suuren markkinapotentiaalin ollessa toinen erittäin merkittävä kriteeri. Kirjallisuustarkastelun pohjalta potentiaalisiksi kohteiksi logistiikkayritykselle valikoitui 22 kaupunkia eri puolilta Venäjää. Monikriteerianalyysiin perustuvan pisteytysmenetelmän avulla toteutetussa potentiaalisten kohteiden luokittelussa kiinnostavimmiksi sijoittumiskohteiksi kohosivat Etelä-Venäjällä, Mustanmeren rannikolla sijaitsevat merkittävät satamakaupungit. Kehittyneen infrastruktuurin, merkittävän markkinapotentiaalin sekä suotuisten taloudellisten toimintaedellytysten ansiosta tarjoavat nämä erityisen merkittävän investointipotentiaalin logistiikkayrityksille.