The relationship between fiscal and current account balances in the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Pension reform in Europe in the 90's and lessons for Latin America

Includes bibliography

Development and validation of an environmentally friendly attenuated total reflectance in the mid-infrared region method for the determination of ethanol content in used engine lubrication oil

Lubricating oils are crucial in the operation of automotive engines because they both reduce friction between moving parts and protect against corrosion. However, the performance of lubricant oil may be affected by contaminants, such as gasoline, diesel, ethanol, water and ethylene glycol. Although there are many standard methods and studies related to the quantification of contaminants in lubricant oil, such as gasoline and diesel oil, to the best of our knowledge, no methods have been reported for the quantification of ethanol in used Otto cycle engine lubrication oils. Therefore, this work aimed at the development and validation of a routine method based on partial least-squares multivariate analysis combined with attenuated total reflectance in the mid-infrared region to quantify ethanol content in used lubrication oil. The method was validated based on its figures of merit (using the net analyte signal) as follows: limit of detection (0.049%), limit of quantification (0.16%), accuracy (root mean square error of prediction=0.089% w/w), repeatability (0.05% w/w), fit (R 2 =0.9997), mean selectivity (0.047), sensitivity (0.011), inverse analytical sensitivity (0.016% w/w-1) and signal-to-noise ratio (max: 812.4 and min: 200.9). The results show that the proposed method can be routinely implemented for the quality control of lubricant oils. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Eliminating ambiguities for quantum corrections to strings moving in AdS4×CP3

We apply a physical principle, previously used to eliminate ambiguities in quantum corrections to the two-dimensional kink, to the case of spinning strings moving in AdS4×CP3, thought of as another kind of two-dimensional soliton. We find that this eliminates the ambiguities and selects the result compatible with AdS/CFT, providing a solid foundation for one of the previous calculations, which found agreement. The method can be applied to other classical string «solitons.» © 2013 World Scientific Publishing Company.

Dynamical properties for an ensemble of classical particles moving in a driven potential well with different time perturbation

We consider dynamical properties for an ensemble of classical particles confined to an infinite box of potential and containing a time-dependent potential well described by different nonlinear functions. For smooth functions, the phase space contains chaotic trajectories, periodic islands and invariant spanning curves preventing the unlimited particle diffusion along the energy axis. Average properties of the chaotic sea are characterised as a function of the control parameters and exponents describing their behaviour show no dependence on the perturbation functions. Given invariant spanning curves are present in the phase space, a sticky region was observed and show to modify locally the diffusion of the particles. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

Review of the implementation of the Cairo Programme of Action in the Caribbean (1994-2004): achievements and constraints

Includes bibliography

Development Paths In The Caribbean

This study analyzes the patterns of development in the Caribbean and gives particular focus to the challenges to and opportunities for sustainable development. The study is divided into two parts. The first part of the study examines trajectories for development in the Caribbean, while the second addresses the relationship between competition and integration.1 The significant development gains attained since independence have been threatened in the last decade. Slowing productivity growth, rising debt, increasing crime and social dislocation in recent years have adversely affected growth in per capita income and social welfare. The study therefore calls on policy makers to promote dynamic drivers of growth and development in the region. The key requirement in this regard, is the need to strengthen import productivity,2 or the efficiency with which the region uses foreign exchange. This can be done by producing and exporting more high-value services such as education and the output of the creative industries. The sub-region also needs to strengthen its systems of governance by providing more opportunities for citizens to participate in decision making. In addition, the region needs to address the inherent relationship between competition and integration by developing improved systems to cushion the negative impacts on weaker members of the integration arrangement. These could include a more robust development fund and capacity building to enable losers to benefit from regional trade and investment. However, regional integration should provide a platform for moving up the value chain, through research and development and innovation to produce more competitive exports.

An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the health sector in the Caribbean

Climate change affects the fundamental bases of good human health, which are clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food, and secure shelter. Climate change is known to impact health through three climate dimensions: extreme heat, natural disasters, and infections and diseases. The temporal and spatial climatic changes that will affect the biology and ecology of vectors and intermediate hosts are likely to increase the risks of disease transmission. The greatest effect of climate change on disease transmission is likely to be observed at the extremes of the range of temperatures at which transmission typically occurs. Caribbean countries are marked by unique geographical and geological features. When combined with their physical, infrastructural development, these features make them relatively more prone to negative impacts from changes in climatic conditions. The increased variability of climate associated with slow-moving tropical depressions has implications for water quality through flooding as well as hurricanes. Caribbean countries often have problems with water and sanitation. These problems are exacerbated whenever there is excess rainfall, or no rainfall. The current report aims to prepare the Caribbean to respond better to the anticipated impact of climate change on the health sector, while fostering a subregional Caribbean approach to reducing carbon emissions by 2050. It provides a major advance on the analytical and contextual issues surrounding the impact of climate change on health in the Caribbean by focusing on the vector-borne and waterborne diseases that are anticipated to be impacted directly by climate change. The ultimate goal is to quantify both the direct and indirect costs associated with each disease, and to present adaptation strategies that can address these health concerns effectively to benefit the populations of the Caribbean.

The impact of climate change on the macroeconomy in the Caribbean

In this study, an attempt is made to assess the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A methodological approach proposed by Dell et al. (2008) is used in preference to the traditional Integrated Assessment Models. The evolution of climate variables and of the macroeconomy of each of the nine countries over the period 1970 to 2006 is analyzed and preliminary evidence of a relationship between the macroeconomy and climate change is examined. The preliminary investigation uses correlation, Granger causality and simple regression methods. The preliminary evidence suggests that there is some relationship but that the direction of causation between the macroeconomy and the climate variables is indeterminate. The main analysis involves the use of a panel data (random effects) model which fits the historical data (1971-2007) very well. Projections of economic growth from 2008 to 2099 are done on the basis of four climate scenarios: the International Panel on Climate Change A2, B2, a hybrid A2B2 (the mid-point of A2 and B2), and a ‘baseline’ or ‘Business as Usual’ scenario, which assumes that the growth rate in the period 2008-2099 is the same as the average growth rate over the period 1971-2007. The best average growth rate is under the B2 scenario, followed by the hybrid A2B2 and A2 scenarios, in that order. Although negative growth rates eventually dominate, they are largely positive for a long time. The projections all display long-run secular decline in growth rates notwithstanding short-run upward trends, including some very sharp ones, moving eventually from declining positive rates to negative ones. The costs associated with the various scenarios are all quite high, rising to as high as a present value (2007 base year) of US$14 billion in 2099 (constant 1990 prices) for the B2 scenario and US$21 billion for the BAU scenario. These costs were calculated on the basis of very conservative estimates of the cost of environmental degradation. Mitigation and adaptation costs are likely to be quite high though a small fraction of projected total investment costs.

report of the workshop on boosting SME development and competitiveness in the Caribbean

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean, in collaboration with the Division of Production, Productivity and Management at ECLAC Headquarters in Chile, convened a one-day workshop on “Boosting SME Development and Competitiveness in the Caribbean”, at the Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean in Port of Spain on 14 May 2009. The workshop was the culmination of country studies that were carried out under an Italian Government-funded project to assess the policies, institutions and instruments for dynamic Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) development and competitiveness in Jamaica, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago. The aim was to use the lessons learned from the three country studies to inform policy and practice in the other member countries of the Caribbean Development and Cooperation Committee (CDCC). The main objectives of the workshop were to: (a) share and discuss the findings of the country studies and lessons learned; (b) provide a forum for high quality discussion of the policy environment, instruments, business development and support services required for successful SME development in the Caribbean; and (c) map out a strategy for moving from analysis and recommendation to policy implementation and business changes in order to promote a dynamic and competitive SME sector. The workshop aimed to arrive at practical solutions to major constraints and a weighting of key actions in order of priority of implementation, by adopting a problem-solving approach. Participants at the workshop included representatives of key SME support institutions in the region, actual SMEs and academic researchers. The list of participants and provisional programme are annexed to this report.

Assessment of in vitro sperm characteristics and their importance in the prediction of conception rate in a bovine timed-AI program

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Escape through a time-dependent hole in the doubling map

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Phase space properties and chaotic transport for a particle moving in a time dependent step potential well

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

The shadows of a ghost: a survey of canine leishmaniasis in Presidente Prudente and its spatial dispersion in the western region of São Paulo state, an emerging focus of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil

Visceral leishmaniasis is an emerging zoonosis and its geographic distribution is restricted to tropical and temperate regions. Most of the individuals infected in Latin America are in Brazil. Despite the control measures that have been adopted, the disease is spreading throughout new regions of the country. Domestic dogs are involved in the transmission cycle and are considered to be the main epidemiologic reservoir of Leishmania infantum (syn. L. chagasi). Our aim was to determine the prevalence of canine leishmaniasis (CL) and Ehrlichiosis infection in Presidente Prudente as well as the spatial dispersion of the disease in the western region of São Paulo state. Dogs underwent clinical examination and symptoms related to CL were recorded. Anti- Leishmania antibodies were detected using ELISA, rK39-immunocromatographic tests (DPP), and an indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT). Anti-E. canis antibodies were detected by IFAT. A follow-up was conducted in dogs that were positive in the ELISA at the baseline study. Data on the spatial distribution of L. longipalpis and CL in São Paulo state were obtained from Brazilian public health agencies. Serum samples from 4547 dogs were analyzed. The seroprevalence of CL was 11.2 % by ELISA and 4.5 % by IFAT. In the follow-up, seroprevalence was 32.9 % by ELISA, 15.3 % by IFAT, 11.8 % by DPP test, and 66.5 % for E. canis. There was a significant positive association between Leishmania and E. canis infection (P < 0.0001). In the follow-up, clinical examinations revealed symptoms compatible with CL in 33.5 % of the dogs. L. longipalpis was found in 24 and CL in 15 counties of the Presidente Prudente mesoregion. The dispersion route followed the west frontier of São Paulo state toward Paraná state. Low CL and high ehrlichiosis prevalence rates were found in Presidente Prudente city. This emerging focus of CL is moving through the western region of São Paulo state toward the border of Paraná state. Integrated actions to fight the vector, parasites, infected dogs, and humans are needed to monitor the disease and implement strategies for epidemiologic control.

Raman Lidar monitors emissions from sugar cane fires in the State of São Paulo: a pilot-project integrating radar, sodar, aerosol and gas observations

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)